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Old 10th June 2019, 13:02   #1
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Default May 2019 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis














NOTES:

1: Thanks to the team at Auto Punditz for sharing these sales numbers with us!

2: Only cars that sell 500+ units (and thus, the relevant ones) have been included in the gainers & losers chart.

3. These manufacturer-reported sales numbers are factory dispatches to dealerships. They are NOT retail sales figures to end customers.

Last edited by Aditya : 10th June 2019 at 14:13.
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Old 10th June 2019, 13:07   #2
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Last edited by Aditya : 10th June 2019 at 14:27.
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Old 10th June 2019, 13:09   #3
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Last edited by Aditya : 10th June 2019 at 14:20.
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Old 10th June 2019, 13:13   #4
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Last edited by Aditya : 10th June 2019 at 14:28.
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Old 10th June 2019, 14:30   #5
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Default Re: May 2019 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Thread moved from the Assembly Line to the Indian Car Scene.
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Old 10th June 2019, 14:40   #6
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Default Re: May 2019 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Thanks for sharing the charts. Although as per the chart Swift looks to be the highest dispatched car,its the Baleno which ideally is the topper. 15176(NEXA)+2142(Toyota) = 17318

Hyundai :
Venue seems to have affected its own siblings Creta & i20 along with the Brezza. But too early to judge. A few more months would give a better picture if the shortcomings that we discussed to death on the Venue thread actually matters to the market or not.

Grand i10 case seems curious to me. One side its running almost 1L discount & on other hand they have so many shipments month-on month being dispatched. Usually we see discounts on cars which sell less & eventually shipments are controlled as well?

TATA:
Tiago numbers are down by almost 40% . What's happening?
Harrier seems to be doing decent for itself compared to XUV5OO & Compass.
Nexon comes to 3rd spot. Although the numbers remain largely similar to what it was previously, the XUV3OO crossing it is surprising.

Last edited by SoumenD : 10th June 2019 at 14:49.
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Old 10th June 2019, 14:50   #7
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Default Re: May 2019 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

The charts are staggering! Pick up the trend chart for any mass market segment and you'll see significant swings since almost a year. Trends not just for individual products but for an entire segment by itself seem to be erratic. You don't want to be a supply chain manager right now: it must be a nightmare getting the production line optimized!
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Old 10th June 2019, 14:57   #8
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Default Re: May 2019 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

New Launches:

Honda Civic takes a nose dive from 2291 in the first month, to 369 and 368 units in the last two months. That is all it is likely to do.

Honda CRV does a cute looking 66! Compare that to M&M's 209 units for Alturas G4. Take a bow M&M.

7 thousand units for Venue. Has hit Brezza hard. Not so much to the EcoSport and XUV300. Still, early days.

XUV300 gives its best ever performance, yet! 5113 units is sheer brilliance.

Kicks and Captur cousins - 79 and 76 units, respectively. BTW, if you haven't gone through this (My experience with one of the most hated, least selling cars in India : The Renault Captur), read it. Reason for 76 units of sales has another dimension.

Harrier is lingering in the 1750 units to 2250 units range. Fingers crossed! Caution: Hector ahead!

Glanza does 2,142. This re-badged (emphasized gleefully!) Maruti outsells all original Toyota's (except Crysta). The Maruti / Toyota, i.e., M/T ratio stands at 4.099 (8781 / 2142). Maruti outsells the same Toyota car, 4 times!

No MG numbers yet. Dealer dispatches for display seem to have not happened in May.
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Old 10th June 2019, 14:58   #9
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Default Re: May 2019 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Thanks Aditya for the May sales numbers.

Here are some inferences from the data:

The Passenger Vehicle sales continue its woes and even tougher times loom ahead. With these comes closure of dealerships and has increased further so much that has now questioned the viability of many dealer establishments. Considering the stats – on an average two vehicle dealerships have shut every week over the past 2 years.

Lower consumer sentiment and the recently concluded general election also had a major part in sales slowdown. The high inventory levels at the dealerships has been a consistent concern and all OEMs are trying their part to lower the dealer stock which is even more hampering the monthly off-take volumes.

- Maruti Suzuki reports the highest market share loss in May’19. It lost a staggering 3.1% MS in May’19 owing to low wholesale volumes in the month. It registered a YoY de-growth of -25.1.

- Hyundai too sees a negative trend even with the new launch, but de-growth is in single digit but the biggest one it increases its market share at the expense of Maruti Suzuki.

- Mahindra once again establishes itself as the 3rd contender in the sales chart and regains the Crown of the SUV leader now.

- Toyota outsmarts Honda – But will it retain for long – Glanza effect will be known in coming months.

- Tata seem to be struggling though it claims it has a healthy retail figures as per its expectations.

- Nissan –Datsun receives a shocker of – 48% de-growth. Should it now focus on EV’s as no plans on its conventional cars are visible?

- FCA now ranks at the lowest end of the chart. While it is known that FIAT will eventually record ZERO sales, what is wrong with JEEP- slow decisions and fierce competition brings COMPASS to a new low in sales numbers.

Market Share:

- Maruti Suzuki still sells 1 in every 2 cars sold, but a dropping trend is seen now. Maruti Suzuki will try to defend this share and time will paint the real picture. Products to look forward to will be Petrol Variant of Vitara Brezza and the Mini Cross over – Future S.

- Maruti Suzuki’s loss in market share reflects in Hyundai’s increase in Market share. Though the company has a negative growth, Venue has helped Hyundai in containing the negative growth.

- Nissan and FCA has to worry as the negative trend is spiraling and with no products visible, not sure how they will contain this trend.

Segment Leaders:

Entry Level: The segment that is dwindling in numbers is held by Maruti Suzuki’s Alto. As customers prefer higher segment vehicles and though BS6 complaint Alto was launched. It hasn’t allowed Alto sales from falling down. The nameplate shows a negative growth of 25% YoY.
Will the upcoming Future S (Zen?) be able to contain this in the form of the mini/micro SUV segment ?
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Compact Hatchback: SWIFT become the largest selling car by Proxy. True credit for largest sales should actually go to Baleno. but as volumes are split with Toyota Glanza, SWIFT steals the show.
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Premium Hatchback: By default it is the Baleno. With 6 lakhs sold in a record 44 months it has withered all competition and stands tall. Would be interesting to see how the numbers stack up when Toyota goes
full steam with Glanza. Anyways Toyota anticipates only ~ 2000 units/month of Glanza sales.
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Compact SUV: Hyundai’s Venue touted as the segment killer nearly reaches there. But for now Vitara Brezza is the leader and it will be interesting to see how Maruti Suzuki will contain the dropping sales of this segment.
Mahindra’s XUV300 and Tata Nexon holds on to its numbers but Ford’s EcoSport is losing its customer base rapidly.
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Compact sedan: Every Two Minutes A New Maruti Suzuki Dzire Is Sold - That sums up the Dzire story
Maruti Suzuki’s Dzire revives this segment and sells consistently above 12k + units.
Honda Amaze is the only formidable competition but a very distant one. Other than the top 2, all the others seem to face the brunt as customers look to c/suv’s.
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Executive Sedan: Ciaz gets back its crown with convincing numbers. The segment is losing its sheen and will Ciaz will be shared with Toyota even in the lackluster times will remain to be seen. Will Yaris be withdrawn as it sees a maximum dip of 87%(Y-O-Y)
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Mid Size SUV: Undisputed leader in Creta hold its fort. A segment eyed by almost all manufactures and launches planned in coming years it will be interesting to see how this segment pans out. Hyudai is rumoured to move the Creta to a 7 seat configuration to keeping to the market expectations.
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MPV: Maruti Suzuki Ertiga takes this segment to new heights. This segment grows at 6% which is the second best to the CUV segment.
Marazzo is on a down trend the day the new Ertiga was launched, even Toyota’s Innova shows a negative growth.
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Source Data:Auto Punditz

Last edited by navin : 16th June 2019 at 09:31. Reason: typo
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Old 10th June 2019, 15:05   #10
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Default Re: May 2019 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Aditya thanks for the in-depth analysis as always. For me, the surprising numbers are from Tata and VW. Tata Motors has lost a significant market share in May in terms of dispatches. I guess one of the reasons will be the existing inventory with dealers. Also, the Tiago numbers are surprising. Are people moving away from the Tiago to other models or to other brands?Or maybe the impending facelift is the reason?

Another surprise is the VW numbers for Polo. The growth is 85% MoM! Is this due to dealers stocking up with the 'cup edition'? Or people have suddenly decided to go for the polo (seems unlikely)? June results might give the answers to this!
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Old 10th June 2019, 15:26   #11
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Some Market Red Flags:

Jeep: With Zero Punto-Linea sales and ever dwindling Compass numbers, future of this brand in India is highly uncertain. They should have brought Renegade by now. No company ever succeeded as a one model wonder. People highly adventurous with their money can and will still go for a Compass.

Renault/Nissan: What's cooking at their offices? May be the legal battle of the top-brass is affecting company's decision making. It is painful to see Kicks dying prematurely, Duster revision is disappointing, lets see how far the Kwid goes.

KIA and MG are entering the market probably at a wrong time. If their products fail to lift-off due to a market slowdown it will be very difficult for them to gain traction later on.
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Old 10th June 2019, 15:29   #12
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Default Re: May 2019 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

These are bad numbers, don't want to see them. These charts cry for serious reforms in taxation, for some kind of stimulus.

Auto sector needs support. The sector employs so many, if this trend continues, can't think of the unemployment scene.

Last edited by Thermodynamics : 10th June 2019 at 15:58.
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Old 10th June 2019, 15:31   #13
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Default Re: May 2019 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Given the reports of high inventory levels at the dealer end and the factory shutdowns going on currently, it is possible that the OEMs have reduced dealer dispatches (along with reduced production levels) to maintain inventory levels across the supply chain. With the upcoming BS-VI deadlines, it is important to keep inventories as low as possible. We might get a better picture in the few months when we get the average monthly sales through 2019.
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Old 10th June 2019, 15:55   #14
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Thanks Aditya for the sales analysis for the month of May 2019.

Few observations from my side -

1. The automobiles scene couldn't be worser with the volume of sales going down month after month. What a contrasting month compared to last year, when a total of 2,97,263 vehicles sold, which is still the highest ever monthly sales recorded. In the current year, this is the lowest month till now.

2. The much anticipated Venue has started with a bang and we need to wait and see whether it could sustain this volume. Had Brezza met its match in Venue or MSIL will pull a rabbit out of the hat by introducing the 1.5L petrol engine?

3. However, all the other 3 C-SUVs - the XUV 300, Nexon and Ecosport sales have increased compared to last month. Infact, XUV 300 has crossed 5K for the first time since its launch this February. Goes to show that all these 3 have their own USPs which will not pull a Maruti customer and will continue to sell on their strengths,, however a Hyundai can easily make a Maruti customer to take a second look.

4. Glanza debuted with 2,142 units which is decent for a re-badged Baleno, however the original has lost close to the same number of units this month compared to last month. So, has MSIL made the same number units as always and shipped a few as Glanza to Toyota - makes business sense.

5. Venue launch not withstanding, there was bloodbath across Hyundai's line-up. Creta registered its 2nd lowest month since the facelift launch last year May. i20 fared much worse - fallen below 10K for the first time since the facelift launch in Feb 2018 and had its fifth lowest monthly sales ever since its launch way back in Aug 2014. Santro fallen below 5K for the first time since launch in last October - so the Venue launch has somewhat offset the losses across the board.

6. On a closer look, its similar case across all the manufacturers. Alto's lowest since Jun 2017, Baleno and Celerio has their 2nd lowest in the last 18-20 months and Brezza's lowest in last 2 years (which is most probably due to the Venue launch).

7. For Tata, Tiago hit its lowest in the last 3 years and Tigor hit its lowest ever since the launch in Mar 2017.

8. Even the mighty Fortuner is impacted and registered its 3rd lowest month (2nd lowest, if we ignore the month before GST introduction), since the new generation launched in Oct 2016.


A look at the Top 25 vehicles sold during the month of May in the last 10 years:

May 2019 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis-historic_may_20191.png

May 2019 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis-historic_may_20192.png
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Old 10th June 2019, 16:20   #15
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Nissan Kicks sales fall to 79 units in May 2019

They have lowest turnover as compared to any OEM i.e approx 72 crores (Excluding GST). Few dealers within Tier 3 cities have better turnover than that of Nissan. Total Sale is 1858 units Nissan+Datsun with market share of 0.78%.

This morning I received a quote from one of the Ex-Nissan Dealers.

Quote:
Before I proceed further I would like to tell you a brief of Nissan’s India business operations. As a new entrant, Nissan in 2010 demanded in terms of dealership Infrastructure and size massive setups. It seemed more than required from the start of business, rather than going for a step by step expansion as and when required. No study was undertaken for market effectiveness of products and Indian entrepreneur’s hard-earned money was misused for such lavish setups as a case of market test and study for this entrant. All businesses were setup at costs between 6 Crore to 20 Crore depending on size and type of the city.

As Nissan, being one of the three largest manufacturers in world, the appointed dealers didn’t blink before setting up huge businesses on their promises of a massive onslaught of products and capture of Market Share which never happened (Failed promises and delivery of inferior products no wonder they currently reside second from bottom in sales).

It is important to bear in mind that our country has no franchise law like that of other countries, leaving dealers completely on the whims and fancies of the manufacturer with agreement & contracts being almost one sided or as the legal community calls it dotted contracts (which Nissan has put to the greatest of use). There is no proper representation at the govt. level or in ministries to address issues about the SME business.

Although it is true that the decision of doing and investing in the business is one’s own choice, but once money is invested one quietly accepts all the unfair terms without choice which could be equated to modern day colonization from Nissan.

In the eight year of Nissan being in business in India more than 85 dealerships have been shut down almost becoming bankrupt. In-numerous family’s wealth and fortunes ruined for life. You won’t be surprised to hear the amount in hundreds of crores. No other industry player in automobile has managed to treat the Indian businessman and get away as Nissan has. The point Nissan hasn't been able to justify investments into setups and seeks to close dealers who question intent based on factors such as these and appoint alternate smaller set up dealers so that questioning stops ! This is known as the Project Phoenix. Smaller investments more viability...

No one comes into business to make a loss but loss of dignity and well-being is beyond what many aspiring entrepreneurs signed up for. These affected people have lost everything including substantial time of their lives, mental health and money running Nissan’s dealership operations due to the trap.

I am also sharing my personal story which resonates with the rest of the people who are still quiet as they are in auto dealership businesses and fear that if they talk out, other manufacturers might take it the wrong way.

This side of the business story needs to be told.

Ruining Young Entrepreneurs like mine's life who was working in UK with a decent job but chose to come to India and only felt betrayed by the system. I have initiated arbitration proceedings against Nissan and hope for a positive end to this 8 years of misery.

They might fool you by saying that we are serious about the Indian market by launching Kicks, but it has been launched because Captur has been launched and investments already made... If you will look there was a similar story with Terrano and Duster.

With the product seeming to have no takers because of negative publicity (CEO in jail, closures, unrest in network etc.) it cannot be a surprise that Nissan can be the next GM in India and opt for an exit. This scenario is highly plausible as sales diminish with market share at 0.78%. They cant find dealers in cities to take up their franchisee now.

Nissan's exit is easy as Renault can be handed over service responsibilities & Renault wants the Indians market for itself.
Attached Files
File Type: pdf my story aks nissan (1) (1).pdf (1.42 MB, 802 views)

Last edited by GTO : 11th June 2019 at 08:13. Reason: Post fixed. Do not cross-post between threads please. Thanks!
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