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Old 9th July 2019, 22:51   #31
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Re: June 2019 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

What about MG Hector? How many wholesale numbers in June?
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Old 9th July 2019, 23:15   #32
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Re: June 2019 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

I'm surprised that no one has mentioned Ford yet, it pains me to see the Figo selling a mere ~300 copies a month. To their credit, Ford did give a decent attempt with Freestyle which also seems to be tanking after a good start. It speaks volumes, when a companies 40+ Lakh product outnumbers its mass market sub 10L offerings.
The only product that still is somewhat holding its ground is the Ecosport, which Ford is desperately trying to screw up by the frequent feature deletion cycles. The competition has also brought their A game with the Venue on one side and XUV300 on the other. This might well be end of Ford as we know it.
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Old 10th July 2019, 02:02   #33
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Re: June 2019 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Does it really make sense to continue to discuss so much about ex-factory/Wholesale/Shipped to the yard numbers?

The only sale that matters is when a vehicle is SOLD to a customer i.e it's registered at an R.T.O.

Cross posting from another thread: "- More than half a million passenger vehicles worth $5 billion (nearly Rs 35,000 crore) are lying unsold in dealerships at the beginning of June."

Building cars and stocking them at yards month after month and posting production numbers hoping they'll sell someday hasn't worked in the past. Read about the Ford, Chrysler crisis in around 2008.

If 1/2 million vehicles were left unsold at the beginning of June,
If Automakers shipped about a 1/4 million vehicles out of their factory in June,
What is the actual vehicle registration data for June (as per SIAM)? That'll give the true picture.
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Old 10th July 2019, 03:20   #34
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Re: June 2019 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

This dip in sales is not restricted to the Auto industry, even the Electronics industry is feeling the heat, that too when the World Cup is going on. This either means that people are starting to get bit more cautious about their spending, or the economy is so bad that there is a serious liquidity crunch.

One possible explanation could also be India's slowing population growth rate. Here's an example:
In 2010 India's population was 123 Cr and the population growth rate was 1.38% which means an annual increase of approx 1.7 Cr
In 2019 India's population was 137 Cr and the population growth rate was 1.08% which means an annual increase of approx 1.5 Cr.

The difference although small could play a role in fewer cars being sold each year.
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Old 10th July 2019, 08:31   #35
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Re: June 2019 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Quote:
Originally Posted by kiku007 View Post
Does it really make sense to continue to discuss so much about ex-factory/Wholesale/Shipped to the yard numbers?

The only sale that matters is when a vehicle is SOLD to a customer i.e it's registered at an R.T.O.

If 1/2 million vehicles were left unsold at the beginning of June,
If Automakers shipped about a 1/4 million vehicles out of their factory in June,
What is the actual vehicle registration data for June (as per SIAM)? That'll give the true picture.
The Retail sales (sales to customers) data is published by FADA as of now and the data is not in details. We still do not have systems in place to track retails at model level. However, few years down the line we will start seeing this data as more and more RTO's get digitalised.

On the half a million inventory- The inventory has always been pretty high at the dealerships, it's just that the level has increased a bit in the last 1 year. I think we can safely assume that 60-70% of this (300,000-350,000 vehicles) would have been the general inventory till last year. Manufacturers are now trying to reach realistic inventory levels and thus production / wholesales have plunged in the last 2-3 months. Once the Inventory gets rationalised, Wholesales will again be a true indicator of retails.
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Old 10th July 2019, 08:32   #36
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Re: June 2019 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

I chanced to see the interview with the current FM on a TV channel and the question was about the announced EV policy asked by Mr Munjal. FM in my opinion dodged any talk about making it a level playing field by either announcing any bailout for traditional IC based manufacturers nor had a good reply on other technologies like Hybrid or Hydrogen cells. For existing auto OEMs this could be a bad omen.
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Old 10th July 2019, 08:57   #37
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Re: June 2019 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

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Originally Posted by ask_017 View Post
The world cup marketing blitz does not seem to be helping that much for Nissan Kicks with only a small increase from May. But I guess that is to be expected with the product already in failure category.
They probably could have saved that money and offered it as discounts and still sold twice as much and saved a bunch of money too.
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Old 10th July 2019, 09:05   #38
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Re: June 2019 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

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They probably could have saved that money and offered it as discounts and still sold twice as much and saved a bunch of money too.
I think Nissan's integration with ICC is governed by the team in Japan. The India team has no say here. My sources tell me that Nissan India is not happy with this integration as they have to pay a big amount each year and they are not able to capitalise it.
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Old 10th July 2019, 09:57   #39
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Re: June 2019 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Just looking at the numbers closely and I just had to point out some obvious points.

Mahindra XUV3OO is the second highest in Mahindra stable after the Bolero. This is a huge achievement. Nearly 5,000 copies monthly shows the XUV3OO is selling really well.

Ford has started to take a hit with the Mahindra XUV3OO and NExon onslaught. Numbers are going down and Ford is shooting themselves in the foot with its features deletion. Endeavour is holding fort at 700 units.

How is Skoda managing with such grand plans in future but less than 1000 cars a month. I understand cars like the Superb, Kodiaq and Octavia are CKD with high margins but their only car that sells more than 500 units is the ageing Rapid.

Same with VW. They pretty much sell only Polo, Ameo and Vento. The same car with different rear ends accounts for 95% of their sales. This is a car that is on sale for close to 10 years now with no changes to the body whatsoever.
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Old 10th July 2019, 10:40   #40
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Re: June 2019 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

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Originally Posted by Vid6639 View Post

Mahindra XUV3OO is the second highest in Mahindra stable after the Bolero. This is a huge achievement. Nearly 5,000 copies monthly shows the XUV3OO is selling really well.

Ford has started to take a hit with the Mahindra XUV3OO and NExon onslaught. Numbers are going down and Ford is shooting themselves in the foot with its features deletion. Endeavour is holding fort at 700 units.
I view XUV300 numbers with scepticism, still. I remember Xylo initial numbers and, recently, Marazzo initial numbers. Both were very high in the beginning before tapering off. Also, don't forget that XUV300 has an AMT version now and hence the dispatches would have that number included (whether they actually sell or not). I expect to see XUV300 numbers going down very soon.

As far as Ford Ecosport is concerned, I sometimes wonder if the top management of Ford India were trained by the top management of Lehman Brothers. How can anybody make decisions as outlandish as this?
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Old 10th July 2019, 11:40   #41
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Re: June 2019 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

So the bleeding continues, and why not ? Government did not care to provide any kind of relief to the industry during this budget. SIAM as always talking pointless and useless things like praising this govt only.

Incentives were again only given to EV's which is pointless as we studied in one of the recent reports from Kotak that it's market will only be for 5% of the population in 2030 and that too mostly cab operators.

Manufacturers are going to roll out quite a few offers in the coming months, but if we need them to really bring about a drastic change in pricing and policy matters, people should refrain from purchasing car's and this sales decline must continue.

Someone in this thread https://www.team-bhp.com/forum/india...jobs-lost.html (Slowdown bites hard: 205 dealers shut down, Rs 2000 crore losses & 3000 jobs lost) aptly said, for the kind of car's we are getting at these atrocious prices, we shouldn't even feel sorry for any of the manufacturers.

Last edited by stanjohn123 : 10th July 2019 at 11:46.
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Old 10th July 2019, 12:13   #42
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Re: June 2019 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

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Originally Posted by amit1agrawal View Post
I counted how many times I engaged 3rd gear and it was zero

I immediately looked at where you're from after reading this line. Bengaluru it is indeed. It's been 3 days since I purchased my first new car - Ford Fresstyle, and my experience is no different.



Ever since my car left the showroom, I don't recall using the 4th and the 5th gear until now. It's crazy to imagine that the 4th and 5th gears could possibly be used only during the weekends!
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Old 10th July 2019, 12:14   #43
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Re: June 2019 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

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Originally Posted by tarik.arora View Post
The Retail sales (sales to customers) data is published by FADA as of now and the data is not in details. We still do not have systems in place to track retails at model level. However, few years down the line we will start seeing this data as more and more RTO's get digitalised.
Right of course.

So we are deducing our views on this thread on half-baked data.

For example, IMHO the retail numbers of the Harrier and Venue will tell us an entirely different story than their wholesale shipment numbers.

Quote:
Originally Posted by tarik.arora View Post
On the half a million inventory- The inventory has always been pretty high at the dealerships, it's just that the level has increased a bit in the last 1 year. I think we can safely assume that 60-70% of this (300,000-350,000 vehicles) would have been the general inventory till last year. Manufacturers are now trying to reach realistic inventory levels and thus production / wholesales have plunged in the last 2-3 months. Once the Inventory gets rationalised, Wholesales will again be a true indicator of retails.
Sorry I'd disagree. Wholesale numbers will not be a true indicator of retail sales, especially in a market that's seen non-stop sales decline.
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Old 10th July 2019, 13:25   #44
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Re: June 2019 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

I think what is really salting the wounds is the second hand car market. The Indian used car scene has developed rapidly and offers very attractive prices. Cars have ceased to be status symbols. Any old beater will do. I know many people both in my office and apartment who just don't care. My manager who probably makes 35 LPA uses a 2013 WagonR. I don't even own a car, will probably never own one.The value proposition is just not there.
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Old 10th July 2019, 13:31   #45
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Re: June 2019 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

While it was a no-brainer that decline in sales in automobile Industry was around the corner after few years of consecutive double digit growth, I am feeling it is still tip of an ice-berg, with more pain coming over in next 1 year, save alone few months of festive season.

What surprises me is the Bangalore market, after being on hunt for sub 4 meter SUV for a family member, it looks like everything gets sold here - Nexon has a wait list of 6 to 8 weeks whereas rest of India it is available on the spot. An email to TATA also confirmed the same.
SA are not eager to pursue and close the deal as there is a potential buyer already waiting. Discounts ? you must be kidding
Hyundai Venue has a waiting of 3 months which is expected considering to be a new launch.
We finally settled for Ford Ecosport with some discounts but again no one was willing to entertain deeper discounts even thought it was Q2/H1 end.
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