[Nitthari]

I think most of us are missing the big picture. Banning ICE or anything in a large and diverse country like us is just practically not possible. And we are talking lakhs of people being employed in the auto and ancillary industries. We need to realize that sometimes we need to be pushed to adopt new technology and only such warnings/threats will push the industry as well. Otherwise the industry lobby will just be happy to maintain status quo.

Remember India is a signatory to the Paris Accord and the govt will have take steps in accordance. There were similar doubts cast on our solar plans. But we have made great progress in that area. Now are EV's completely green vis-a-vis ICE is another topic altogether. But the fact that this warning/threat is waking the industry and moving things is a start which probably should have happened at least 5 years back.

The govt's job is to come up with a policy and enable/guide the industry. The policy is revealed and there is an overt push to adopt the same. Now with regards to the infrastructure, as many have pointed out, they will quickly crop up. Who knows there could come a day with our EV's having solar panels covering the car roof's. Mobile charging anyone?

[SSD2122]

Article in today's Times Of India.

[airbender]

Mr.Bajaj is just whining. If three wheelers with only one major manufacturer can do it, everyone else can do it too.

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/te...a-4219971.html

[chinkara]

Originally Posted by shashankjain16

• Lithium forms only 5-7% of Lithium-ion batteries. Major components are cobalt and nickel which are not only recyclable but also recycling is profitable.
• Oil is dug from beneath more ecologically sensitive areas. Lithium is mined in deserted places like the Atacama desert in Chile where very less life is supported.
• Emissions from EVs does depend on the mode of production of electricity. Still, if we take the most conservative for electricity produced non-renewable sources, EVs still perform better. A 30kW battery EV will break-even oil-powered cars in less than 2 years. A 100kW battery EV will break even in about 5-6 years. But, this is a very conservative estimate, and actual will probably be quite less because we produce a mix of coal-powered and renewable energy.
• EVs typically have much more life because they have very less moving parts and require very less maintenance. Many manufacturers are providing 8 years, 1,00,000 miles warranty for batteries in the US. So, you can see the life of batteries in itself.
• When comparing EVs, people often cite the mining of Li and emissions of producing batteries, but no one talks about emissions that go in refining oil. Plus, big ships transporting crude oil and danger they pose to oceans in case of leakage.
• More importantly, it is much easier to switch electricity production from coal to renewable sources, than it is to switch vehicles sold. Centralization!
• Electric motors are much more efficient than petrol/diesel engines. A big part of these engines is lost in heat, while in motors almost all energy is directly converted to mechanical energy.
• Switching to EVs will make our city airs cleaner and prevent pre-mature deaths caused by air pollution and the extra burden it puts on government for insurance and treatment.

It is not just EVs. The Indian government is also pushing towards the production of electricity from renewable sources. Did you know that India is the producer of the cheapest solar energy in the world? If 5 years ago, they promised they will achieve this, no one would have agreed because it was a long way to go I think.

To reach somewhere, one has to take a step forward first. And, the government is doing that. If the government does not push, these multibillion-dollar corporations and oil cartels will keep doing their business and refuse to invest and innovate in technologies.

Does anyone remember how much innovation happened during WW2? How in 10 years the USA was able to land humans on the moon? Because there was pressure, the government intent and policies.

I strongly believe we will be able to achieve the target by 2030. This is a tipping point in the motor vehicle industry. There will be a lot of companies that will fail and a lot new that will emerge as leaders. Its high time we move forward, instead of being pessimistic about the estimate and criticising government policies.

I am an EV enthusiast and have done a fair bit of consulting work in this space. I am sorry, but the type of analysis done by the "loony green" fringe does more harm than good. In an attempt to advocate EV usage unrealistic assumptions are taken on usage, maintenance costs, benefits, battery life and you end up with customer backlash. Do you have any idea how the industry was hurt after the numbers declined post the 2009-2011 electric 2W boom? Chinese products were sold without any testing on Indian conditions - vehicles that literally fell apart within 2 years. A gentleman in Kolhapur (a small business owner) actually showed me the carcass of 21 electric 2W that he bought for his employees and said, "That is my 11 L junkyard".

I believe in EV as inevitable in the future, I also acknowledge that more needs to be done for mass scale deployment - in product / technology, charging infra, reliability, efficiency etc. Today an average 2W runs for 20-30 km / day. For that, the viability is not 2 years, and is borderline at best. Yes, food delivery vehicles from Dominoes, Zomato etc. will convert first.

The points Rajiv Bajaj raises are valid. There should be incentives, not bans. And as the energy mix in India would not be renewable-dominant anytime soon, there is no rush even from a pollution standpoint. Government can do a lot more by funding, for e.g. all city buses going electric by 2025, rather than making headline-grabbing statements.

[vadakkus]

Oru kadhai sollattuma (May I tell a story)?

When I was in college in 2002/3, I enrolled with an Airtel distributor in Trivandrum to sell prepaid connections to government employees. It turned out to be incredibly difficult to convince people to buy one. The arguments were:

1. The network infrastructure is absent, no network outside cities and towns. Most of these people come from rural areas. They were unanimous that it would take atleast a decade for network to reach there, companies would have no incentive in investing in villages.
2. Equipment cost. Handsets were mostly expensive, were confusing to use, had short battery life, were prone to breaking down and were difficult to repair. The 3310 was just becoming popular at that time.
3. Alternatives. I have a landline at home, there are hundreds of cheap PCOs everywhere and for emergency there are office phones. There is no point in this additional burden. And who will I call with the mobile? And so on.

All valid points. But these things improved and in just four years, everyone had a mobile phone. And six years later, everyone had a smartphone. EVs will be everywhere before we even know it. And in India, it will be the two and three wheeler market, followed by public buses that is going to drive EV adoption, not cars. And again, this is not because of Indian's love for the environment but because they are cheaper and much more efficient.

Changes happen without us even realising it. Every single person I speak to isn't averse to buying an EV. They are only waiting for the technology to mature. The creation of a robust charging infrastructure alone will cause this massive paradigm shift. The govt seriousness in this matter is a very big factor in that because the general public in India look up to the government to approve and validate things before accepting. If this goes on, ICEs face a risk of being pushed out by the market itself like most people here commented. What will Bajaj & co. do then? Hold a gun to the customers' heads and force them to keep buying Pulsars?

If I can know this, Rahul Bajaj knows it better. He is seeing a real threat in the govts EV push, even if he isn't against EVs, because retooling his entire production line and business logic from scratch does not make a good business case for him and his peers, especially so in a highly conservative and risk-averse industry. Hence the outburst.

Rahul, his company and industry thrived on government patronage for over half a century. Complaining and playing victim when that favour moves in another direction makes them only look like a jealous girlfriend. The best thing they can do is stop whining, see the writing on the wall and try to change with the times. If he doesn't, his company will go the way of the dinosaurs that power his products.

Those who complain about govt intervention and argue that "the market should decide", please remember that the ICE and the private, single-occupant car achieved its dominant position and continued there despite being among the most continuously unchanged technology for a century only and only because of active government support, intervention, subsidy and regulation of competing technology for a hundred years. And nobody is banning anything. There is no need to.


Note: This taken from a post I myself wrote elsewhere (disclaimer: I own that blog.)

[payeng]

Originally Posted by vadakkus

If I can know this, Rahul Bajaj knows it better. He is seeing a real threat in the govts EV push, even if he isn't against EVs, because retooling his entire production line and business logic from scratch does not make a good business case for him and his peers, especially so in a highly conservative and risk-averse industry. Hence the outburst.

Rahul, his company and industry thrived on government patronage for over half a century. Complaining and playing victim when that favour moves in another direction makes them only look like a jealous girlfriend. The best thing they can do is stop whining, see the writing on the wall and try to change with the times. If he doesn't, his company will go the way of the dinosaurs that power his products.

Did you know even TVS has invested huge amounts so that it's humble XL100 is BSVI complaint (obviously TVS can't afford letting go its cash cow) by April 2020?

We could see XL100, Splendors and CT100 with Fi-Tech by April 2020..!! What these business owners aren't probably telling on the face is - "Why impose BSVI in 2020 just to make the machines obsolete in another 5 years?"

All the major manufacturers are already tinkering with EVs... but they probably they first want Return of their Investment (in BSVI) before they can all jump into EVs.

BTW Rahul is Rajiv's Dad... It's Rajiv who is at the helm of Bajaj Auto. Dad Rahul is the Chairman of the Bajaj Group.

[amitk26]

Originally Posted by payeng

Did you know even TVS has invested huge amounts so that it's humble XL100 is BSVI complaint (obviously TVS can't afford letting go its cash cow) by April 2020?

We could see XL100, Splendors and CT100 with Fi-Tech by April 2020..!! What these business owners aren't probably telling on the face is - "Why impose BSVI in 2020 just to make the machines obsolete in another 5 years?"

5 years is normal lifecycle of Euro emission norms on which Indian system is based. So its natural that BS 6 will be obsolete in another
5 years.

Euro 3 - Jan 2001
Euro 4 - Jan 2006
Euro 5a - Sept 2011
Euro 6 - Sept 2015

Just that in past Government of India yielded to industry lobby and showed leniency to implement BS-4 ( Euro -4) and it could be fully implemented only by 2017.

So Euro 5 was skipped to catch up with the world and this was also an Indication to industry that India is govt to catch up with global norms and they shouldn't expect concessions in emission norms going forward.

[lawdgawd]

ICE is bad for the environment. EV is another kind of bad for the environment with lithium mining and disposal, power generation pollution and so on. No one has made a plan to sort that out yet.

Remember how long it took to make CNG easily available even in Delhi NCR? And now are going to get a pan-India EV charging network.

All EVs are not going to be super safe Teslas with 5-star ratings. Low quality EVs in crashes add a new danger. Your Rs 10 Lakh EV without adequate crash safety will be a deadly vehicle. Think electric fires and electrocution.

Price WILL NOT come down without substantial subsidies. Not going to happen - there is still a lot of money to be spent in poverty alleviation, and imagine an Opposition that can say, "government is giving lakhs to rich people to buy cars!" It will be a very welcome gift indeed.

Assume EV costing 50% more than ICE variant. Used car costing 50% less than ICE variant. People will just switch to used cars.

Companies will invest the minimum viable amount into EVs for the time being, as they are not confident the government has thought this through, and if they have done that, are capable of pulling of such a dramatic change.

P.S. I personally have no problem with EVs. But I am confident in the inability of our manufacturers and government to make it happen within the timeline given.

[guru_max]

The government has since clarified that there will be no ban. Whatever be the case, for the common public, cost is always the factor the affects their decision. Currently, EVs does not justify their high initial cost. Perhaps, Government subsidies will help bridge the gap a bit more quickly than if there were no subisdies. I think, the Olas and the Ubers of our cities will be the first cars to "mass convert" to EVs as they clock a lot of Km to justify the high costs and they won't have problems with charging infra as well.

[Lambydude]

Govt. Slashes GST on electric vehicles from 12% to 5%. Prices to come down by 60k to 1.5lacs. Also, the GST on electric chargers is down from 18% to 5%.

https://m.timesofindia.com/business/...w/70415135.cms

[B103]

Originally Posted by Lambydude

Govt. Slashes GST on electric vehicles from 12% to 5%. Prices to come down by 60k to 1.5lacs. Also, the GST on electric chargers is down from 18% to 5%.

https://m.timesofindia.com/business/...w/70415135.cms

https://www.livemint.com/news/india/...077561033.html

https://www.businesstoday.in/sectors...ry/368229.html

https://techcrunch.com/2019/07/01/ol...tric-softbank/

All of a sudden, there is so much of vigor only because of the push to electric vehicles in the budget. This is what a Government can do - nudge. Both the industry and end users will follow the trail.

[volkman10]

Another Mr. Bajaj questions the policies:

No investment, no demand, will growth fall from heavens?

There is no demand and no private investment, so where will growth come from? It doesn’t fall from heavens. The auto industry is going through a very difficult period. Cars, commercial vehicles and two-wheelers are going through a rough patch

Link

[volkman10]

Government reviewing its stance on combustion engine ban: Rajiv Bajaj

there is a “serious consideration” by the government to reduce GST on vehicles to stimulate demand amidst the ongoing sales slowdown in the market

They are not looking at a ban, they are only looking for a phased transition to electric vehicles.

Link

[civic-sense]

If something has to replace an existing tech, it has to be better than the existing one. I do not see EVs either being faster or economical in the near future.

EV technology hasn't matured yet. There still have to be more research in the field. Until then EVs could only be, at best, that second car you use for your grocery shopping.

[sgiitk]

If the infra does not hold then a delay is necessary. In any case Herr Bajaj is looking a a totally new scenario. All his instincts fail.