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Old 21st July 2019, 11:40   #1
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Continental CEO: Petrol & Diesel engines could exist till 2040

According to a media report, Elmar Degenhart, CEO, Continental AG, believes that internal combustion engines (ICE) will continue to exist till 2040.

Continental CEO: Petrol & Diesel engines could exist till 2040-engine.jpg

The development of the final generation of combustion engines with better fuel efficiency and reduced emissions is expected to begin around 2025 and could go into production after 2030. Combustion engine technology is likely to be phased out after 2040. Degenhart expects all vehicles to transition to non-fossil fuel power by 2050.

The report also states that according to Degenhart, fuel cell technology is expected to improve in the next 20 years, so much so that the fuel cell powered vehicles could cost as much as electric vehicles (EVs) with lithium-ion batteries by 2040. Heavier vehicles are expected to adopt fuel cell technology due its low complexity in terms of recycling and managing leftover compared to lithium-ion. Bringing down the cost of battery recycling will be a challenge for the EV industry.

Degenhart believes that it is too early for driverless cars and that the industry might not see substantial growth for another 10 years. However, driverless taxis are likely to be the first to adopt autonomous technologies. Software content in passenger vehicles is also expected to increase in the future.

Source: Economic Times

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Last edited by TusharK : 21st July 2019 at 12:01.
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Old 21st July 2019, 12:02   #2
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re: Continental CEO: Petrol & Diesel engines could exist till 2040

This definitely makes sense. While it's good to have non fossil fuel power for environment, it's highly impossible for the transition to take place in 5 or 10 years. Steps are being taken towards the right move but there's a lot to be done here especially in India. Infrastructure development and reduction of heavy taxes plays a prominent role towards this move for the greater good.

I know these combustion engines are bad for the environment, but their rev nature will truly be missed. I will be one of the many guys who enjoy a proper diesel engine for now and settle with an EV down the line. Maybe petrol heads would find an EV with a proper power enjoyable due to its absolutely zero sound?
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Old 21st July 2019, 15:44   #3
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re: Continental CEO: Petrol & Diesel engines could exist till 2040

After all the hype and hoolah of transitioning to EVs at the flick of a finger, this report is something which sounds believable and sensible. When it comes to India, I'd say it wouldn't be too wrong to add a decade or two to the timeline.
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Old 21st July 2019, 15:55   #4
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re: Continental CEO: Petrol & Diesel engines could exist till 2040

Keeping in mind that 1960 Hindustan Ambassador was in production in India till 2010, when do you guys think we will stop producing petrol and diesel engines here?
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Old 21st July 2019, 16:24   #5
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re: Continental CEO: Petrol & Diesel engines could exist till 2040

Quote:
Originally Posted by SmartCat View Post
when do you guys think we will stop producing petrol and diesel engines here?
When government thinks that they have had enough revenue from Auto & Transport Industry and don't need it further.

While Petrol & Diesel is imported and they want to reduce or stop that, they also have to plan an alternative before doing that, so they chose Electric.

But at the same time, the government has reduced GST on EVs, has let off Road Tax on EVs (Yet to be implemented by States), and also proposed Subsidies.

If they do all this, from where will they get revenue which they have been hell bent on for so many years ?

Hence we'll slowly see transition from ICE to EVs, while some may remain (Commercial & Construction Equipment Vehicles) might remain Diesel.

Also, since BS6 cars require Urea, I guess Government will also make hay at this without taking time by giving it to a private companies, therefore letting go of their OMCs Dealers.

A close friend who has 2 Fuel Outlets has said that the Government is not in favour of existing dealers to sell them Ethanol, EV Stations, etc. BS6 might also be restricted to some cities. By doing that the demand for Fossil Fuels will decrease and the required capital & quantity of fuel to import will be reduced thus resulting in complete stoppage of Diesel & Petrol Sales.

BS4 Fuel in BS6 engine is not recommended. But when you don't have a BS6 fuel, you are forced to buy a BS4 vehicle, and vice versa.

Overall I think 2025 is time when 50% of cars here will have EV option. Small cars will be mostly Petrol and Medium Cars will have EV Option while Big Cars (SUVs) will still remain Diesel Only.

The 10 lakhs to 50 lakhs segment is where we may see high number of EVs, but it'll also have a ICE option. So, there you go, Petrol & Diesel cars are here to stay until Infrastructure is fully developed.
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Old 21st July 2019, 16:52   #6
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re: Continental CEO: Petrol & Diesel engines could exist till 2040

Quote:
Originally Posted by CarguyNish View Post
1.When government thinks that they have had enough revenue from Auto & Transport Industry and don't need it further.

2.While Petrol & Diesel is imported and they want to reduce or stop that, they also have to plan an alternative before doing that, so they chose Electric.

But at the same time, the government has reduced GST on EVs, has let off Road Tax on EVs (Yet to be implemented by States), and also proposed Subsidies.

If they do all this, from where will they get revenue which they have been hell bent on for so many years ?

Hence we'll slowly see transition from ICE to EVs, while some may remain (Commercial & Construction Equipment Vehicles) might remain Diesel.

Also, since BS6 cars require Urea, I guess Government will also make hay at this without taking time by giving it to a private companies, therefore letting go of their OMCs Dealers.

A close friend who has 2 Fuel Outlets has said that the Government is not in favour of existing dealers to sell them Ethanol, EV Stations, etc. BS6 might also be restricted to some cities. By doing that the demand for Fossil Fuels will decrease and the required capital & quantity of fuel to import will be reduced thus resulting in complete stoppage of Diesel & Petrol Sales.

BS4 Fuel in BS6 engine is not recommended. But when you don't have a BS6 fuel, you are forced to buy a BS4 vehicle, and vice versa.

Overall I think 2025 is time when 50% of cars here will have EV option. Small cars will be mostly Petrol and Medium Cars will have EV Option while Big Cars (SUVs) will still remain Diesel Only.

The 10 lakhs to 50 lakhs segment is where we may see high number of EVs, but it'll also have a ICE option. So, there you go, Petrol & Diesel cars are here to stay until Infrastructure is fully developed.
While I agree with you broadly. I do have some points to ponder:

1. This will never come to pass. Motoring, Alcohol, Cigarettes are easy revenue. All are 'sin goods'.

2. Stopping is not on. Increase taxes till we start squealing.

BS6 requires urea only in Diesels. I am sure the Neem coated stuff will not do.

As for dealerships they are already talking of recharge stations, which will surely replace some pumps.

GST is proposed to be reduced to 5%. This as per procedure will have to be done only by the GST council.

As for Road Tax that is in the purview of the states.

Also, states may enhance taxation of electricity to recoup some of the 'losses'. As it is there are multiple power rates. Also, to run a 'fast charger' we may need 20kVA or more power, which very few domestic lines have.

BS5 was skipped due to the OMCs inability to implement in time. What they did do was to make BS4 mandatory all over. I think BS6 fuel will be made available in about time.

I will say 2030 is the earliest. Remember there are a lot of mofussil areas in India.

Last edited by sgiitk : 21st July 2019 at 16:55.
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Old 22nd July 2019, 00:29   #7
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re: Continental CEO: Petrol & Diesel engines could exist till 2040

I'd believe this piece of news. I think even with Electric powertrains, IC engines will exist for till 2040. And I too believe that Fuel cell technology is the future. Universities and companies just need to find a way to make producing Hydrogen cheaper.

Quote:
Originally Posted by CarguyNish View Post
When government thinks that they have had enough revenue from Auto & Transport Industry and don't need it further.
Transportation is going to be a highly taxed system in every country. We see a disparity in India as only 30 of a 1000 people have cars, whereas in America ~900 people of every 1000 have cars.
Quote:
If they do all this, from where will they get revenue which they have been hell bent on for so many years ?
All tax breaks for EVs are temporary until the adoption becomes significant.
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Old 22nd July 2019, 08:04   #8
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Re: Continental CEO: Petrol & Diesel engines could exist till 2040

A sensible statement . I personally think petrol engines will go on beyond 2040, although diesel has gotten such a bad name that some manufacturers have already rolled back investments in it.

Sharing a link to a related thread where Kotak said merely 5% of Indian cars will be EVs in 2030 - link.
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Old 22nd July 2019, 10:47   #9
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Re: Continental CEO: Petrol & Diesel engines could exist till 2040

All these long term predictions are futile due to rapidly improving battery technology. Even the so called pro EV, pro solar/wind analysts at Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) are not able to predict the growth of EVs and battery prices.

With just technology improvements and little scale, battery prices down by 85% in last 8 years, from $1,160 to $176 per kWh. Technology improvements continue into next decade. For example, world's largest battery company CATL expects ~47% in battery density by 2023 compared to 2019. At the same time, there is massive new battery capacity coming online from this year. All the major companies like LG Chem, CATL, BYD, SK innovation, Panasonic are setting up large scale battery plants across the world. They are continuously upgrading the investments and capacities before even the construction starts in most cases.

All these predictions are ignoring the China factor. China EV sales are on track to reach double figures by the end of this year. All this with EV models from only domestic companies. While the domestic companies like BYD, Geely, SAIC continue to expand their EV manufacturing capacities for many years to come, starting from next year, all the major global companies like Toyota, VW group, PSA, Honda, etc... will be releasing many EV models in Chinese market. Battery companies like CATL, BYD, LG Chem are setting large scale plants in China to cater to all these EVs.
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Old 22nd July 2019, 10:48   #10
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Re: Continental CEO: Petrol & Diesel engines could exist till 2040

This is a more pragmatic and fact based research I would say after Kotak's report which GTO had shared earlier. And should probably be an eye opener for the Policy makers at the top. According to me what could be the factors to enable the EV revolution :

1) Sops - we have a good start here with the Tax benefits and other subsidies
2) Capital Cost - Given the automobile market is witnessing a slowdown this is probably a bad time to start off the revolution, I mean when the 5 Lakh Wagon R is not selling as good as it used to do how would you expect a 10 Lakh " E" Wagon R to sell. I think the Chinese will lead their way here with " Cheap " EVs. In the last one month I have seen close to 3 - 4 new Electric 2 wheelers being launched few of which are directly from China or a rip off ( Revolt, Okinawa etc)
3) Trust/ Reliability - This is definitely the elephant in the room no one will talk about until the problems begin to surface. EX : In China 70% regret buying an EV according to this article - https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...c-car-industry.
4) Range anxiety - It's 72 years since Independence and only in the last decade or so we have had decent/ Safe Highways. I can only imagine how long it will take to come up with EV Charging infrastructure all across the highways ! If I am travelling at night and want to charge my vehicle, in today's India I do feel skeptical to wait for an hour in a deserted highway, not to mention when travelling with family
5) Battery Technology - This could be a game changer here. But we are talking about something we can see only in Laboratory currently. I still believe Lithium Ion Batteries have their own set of limitations and is a stop gap measure for Fuel cell which to me is the end state of EVs

Finally, the most difficult one -

Consumer's Mindset - Until we Indians believe that EVs will be cheap (low cost) to buy / own/ maintain,sell and are safe/ reliable EVs in India will take its own sweet time to go mainframe !!
Cheers
Britto
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Old 22nd July 2019, 14:52   #11
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Re: Continental CEO: Petrol & Diesel engines could exist till 2040

Quote:
Originally Posted by CarguyNish View Post
..If they do all this, from where will they get revenue which they have been hell bent on for so many years ?..
That's the question I keep scratching my head about ! Even a 2 - 3% dip in revenue dip in petroleum income introduces new taxes/cess/duties etc. from central/state governments. So when the entire (or majority of) ICE landscape is replaced by EVs, where all the money is going to come from ?

It is reasonable to believe that once EVs make a reasonable penetration into the vehicle population, the running costs may not be as minimal as they are today (we may see taxes on electricity, EV batteries or in some other form to compensate for loss of petroleum taxes).
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Old 22nd July 2019, 15:06   #12
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Re: Continental CEO: Petrol & Diesel engines could exist till 2040

Finally someone makes a sensible and more pragmatic statement. The biggest challenge for Li-Ion batteries is the charging time. Even the fastest charger out there requires atleast an hour for full charge. Even if there are chargers all over the place, hour is a lot of time to waste if someone is going on a 1000KM commercial trip. we need some break-thru innovation to overcome this problem. Something like a battery station with a technician who can remove the empty battery of the EV and replace it with a fully charged battery of same spec with in 10-15 mins. Similar to how we ask for gas cylinder refills in India.

Quote:
Originally Posted by landcruiser123 View Post
I'd believe this piece of news. I think even with Electric powertrains, IC engines will exist for till 2040. And I too believe that Fuel cell technology is the future. Universities and companies just need to find a way to make producing Hydrogen cheaper.
Fully agree with this and believe Fuel Cell is the future. While in LA, I have driven Toyota Mirai which is the world's first and probably the only Fuel Cell production car. Its as good as an EV. California govt. has committed to setting up more and more Hydrogen stations across the state in future. Filling Hydrogen is similar to filling petrol and hardly takes 10 mins. The best part of the car is the emission is pure water. The guy has collected the emission in a bottle and showed us how pure it is and has even claimed that it can even be consumed as-is.

The only problem is apart from being costly commercial Hydrogen production is also more polluting than producing electricity using fossil fuels. If the technology advances and makes producing Hydrogen cheaper and less polluting, then this is the way to go for future
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Old 22nd July 2019, 15:37   #13
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Re: Continental CEO: Petrol & Diesel engines could exist till 2040

Quote:
Originally Posted by TusharK View Post
According to a media report, Elmar Degenhart, CEO, Continental AG, believes that internal combustion engines (ICE) will continue to exist till 2040.

Attachment 1896739

The development of the final generation of combustion engines with better fuel efficiency and reduced emissions is expected to begin around 2025 and could go into production after 2030. Combustion engine technology is likely to be phased out after 2040. Degenhart expects all vehicles to transition to non-fossil fuel power by 2050.

The report also states that according to Degenhart, fuel cell technology is expected to improve in the next 20 years, so much so that the fuel cell powered vehicles could cost as much as electric vehicles (EVs) with lithium-ion batteries by 2040. Heavier vehicles are expected to adopt fuel cell technology due its low complexity in terms of recycling and managing leftover compared to lithium-ion. Bringing down the cost of battery recycling will be a challenge for the EV industry.

Degenhart believes that it is too early for driverless cars and that the industry might not see substantial growth for another 10 years. However, driverless taxis are likely to be the first to adopt autonomous technologies. Software content in passenger vehicles is also expected to increase in the future.

Source: Economic Times

Link to Team-BHP News


Feels like sweet music to ears this news. Hopefully fuel prices remain affordable for atleast a decade to keep the Abarth singing.
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Old 22nd July 2019, 15:39   #14
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Re: Continental CEO: Petrol & Diesel engines could exist till 2040

People need to get savvy about usage

For urban, unless you have a Tesla supercharger network, electric is the way to go
Big intercity mileage - Diesel is most efficient and carbon friendly still! Diesel in a concentrated area is being discouraged.
In between - it would be petrol
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Old 23rd July 2019, 11:42   #15
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Re: Continental CEO: Petrol & Diesel engines could exist till 2040

Could it be that the future is Hydrogen Powered ICE? With a dual fuel option? Dr. Richard Hames predicts Hydrogen fuel cell powered cars. Link
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