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Old 2nd August 2019, 13:42   #1
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Default The great Indian automobile industry slowdown of 2018-19

The automobile market is subdued and market sentiments are on their most negative nadirs. The phenomenal growth years of the past decades (minus the slowdown of 2008-09) seem to be something passe, that shows up on India's rear view mirror. Going by the records, the sharpest fall in recent history was recorded in November 2008 @ 24.6 %, when the global recession was then at its peak. Other significant downturns were during October 2011, when there was a 21.1 % fall and during February 2003, the fall was by 19.9 %.

The July 2019 sales of passenger vehicles have fallen 31 % and even Maruti (MSIL), the market leader and growth indicator since decades, has suffered a 36.7 % sale loss vis-a-vis the same month in 2018, their production in July 2019 totalling 96,478 units. But Maruti Chairman says that the FMCG and some other sectors have shown growth during the last quarter and exact reason for the prolonged weak demand in the automobile market must be identified.

Automobile dealers are closing shops and nearly 100 of them have done so all over India. Besides, major automakers are going slow on production as inventories have piled up and the BS VI, D-Day is about 8 months away. The next to come will be massive lay-offs by auto-makers and auto- dealers, if the malady is not checked.

According to Economic Times :-

" The passenger vehicles (PVs) sales is expected to face further pressure in the current month (August 2019) due to OEMs bid to maintain normal inventory levels amid weak retail sentiments, rating agency Crisil Research said on Thursday. Continuing to face rough weather, Maruti Suzuki, Hyundai and three other auto majors reported a double-digit decline in sales in July as consumer sentiment remained subdued. The passenger vehicle volumes are estimated to have declined by a round 27-31 percent in July as compared to last year, commented Hetal Gandhi, director, Crisil Research on July auto sales. "

The largest car market in the world, China is also aggrieved with a dip in automobile sales.

As Economic Times puts it :-

Hit by a slowing economy, the U.S.-China trade war and the chaotic implementation of new emission rules, vehicle sales logged a 12th straight month of declines in June. Industry officials and analysts now expect car demand to slide some 5% this year after a 2.8% fall last year to 28.1 million - its first decline since the 1990s.

The negative indicators links (all Economic Times ):-

https://auto.economictimes.indiatime...-weak/70491224

https://auto.economictimes.indiatime...ugust/70487059

https://auto.economictimes.indiatime...rowth/70481790

Last edited by anjan_c2007 : 2nd August 2019 at 13:46.
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Old 2nd August 2019, 14:55   #2
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Default re: The great Indian automobile industry slowdown of 2018-19

While the different economic reasons being discussed could be a reason for the continuous slump, it is definitely not the only reason or the biggest reason in my opinion. I see several other more specific reasons too.
  • Manufacturers have continuously increased prices every year. It is hard to justify the prices of some of the models out there. For a first time aspirational buyer this is a major gating factor.

  • In spite of increased prices, there is been no drastic wow factors in the launches over the last few years (apart from maybe a handful). In most cases, existing models have been tweaked, enhanced in the name of face lifts. No real changes in the engine options or other mechanical parameters. In a lot of cases the brand DNA has been watered down with the newer models. So people who go looking for an upgrade kind of reach the conclusion that their 5 year old model was better in many aspects. Coupled with point 1 above, makes no real sense to upgrade/change.

  • Due to the massive traffic issues in most tier 1/2 cities, and the growth of the App based taxi's, more and more people are preferring to not buy a car (as discussed extensively in this thread)

  • Used cars- Considering point 1, while still remaining an largely unorganized sector, is making a strong case for itself. I personally at this time have decided that if I buy a next car, it will be used only.

  • With all the talk around BS-6 and Electric Mobility, a lot of customers will be in a wait and watch mode.

The silver lining I see are the new entrants Kia and MG who seemed to have captured the imagination of the public to some extent with their whole bling around connected cars and a bunch of first time features backed by what looks to be solid mechanicals. This may help excite the market to some extent.

In summary, with all the macro level economic reasons coupled with the specific points above, I don't see a massive recovery happening in the immediate future.

Last edited by Rajeevraj : 2nd August 2019 at 14:57.
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Old 2nd August 2019, 15:53   #3
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Default re: The great Indian automobile industry slowdown of 2018-19

Too many factors working against the industry and only hope is some turn-around post 2020 april. While global economic reasons are beyond our control, there are local factors too impacting the industry. BS-VI, EV policy and Demonetisation which caused lot of cash crunch. People are just holding on to their cars bit longer in the hope of some recovery.

At least those waiting for BS-VI or new models should get enough reasons to go ahead and buy their cars(I am guessing it will only happen by festival time of 2020)

Also I really wonder if a single car can meet the needs of those living in chocked metro cities. My preference would be Pure electric small hatch for City and a compact SUV/Sedan for the weekend highway usage. We still have 4-5 years before we see some traction among EVs.

After prolonged wait, I ended up picking up a used car and a small AMT car which should keep me very happy for next 4-5 years.
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Old 2nd August 2019, 20:31   #4
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Default re: The great Indian automobile industry slowdown of 2018-19

I have to ask whether the auto industries understand and learn from the changes in the market. Yes, it is a perfect storm of factors that led to this down-turn. High cost (car, insurance, fuel, tax), lack of funding (NBFC issues), lack of space/infrastructure, newer technology (BS6, EV, hybrid cars), people more open to rental rather than purchase, more options to travel (improving public transportation, relatively cheap aggregator cabs, cheap two-wheelers on rent) and flawed business models (too much credit and not enough personal investment, cars don't come customised from the manufacturer forcing people into high-cost variants to get one or two features).

At some point dealers/car companies will suffer the consequences and either incur loss or go out of business. The sad reality is it means people lose their jobs, but that is a better alternative to having bad businesses thrive
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Old 2nd August 2019, 21:24   #5
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Default re: The great Indian automobile industry slowdown of 2018-19

The great Indian automobile industry slowdown of 2018-19-img_20190802_211832.jpg

The great Indian automobile industry slowdown of 2018-19-img_20190802_211813.jpg

Source : AutoPunditz
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Old 2nd August 2019, 23:09   #6
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Default re: The great Indian automobile industry slowdown of 2018-19

I say the only reason is BS-6. Let's look at the other major reasons suggested:

1. Vehicle costs have been increasing:
Don't see that, if you consider indexation. I bought my Fabia in 2010 for 6.15. A comparable Jazz VX Manual is quoted at below 8.5. This after 9 years. Sure, they seem to charge a strong premium for SUV styled vehicles. But I don't think vehicle prices have been increasing in tune with inflation.

2. Economic factors, low GDP, China-US trade conflicts,..:
As pointed in the OP, other indices do not seem to reflect this. Even the stock markets haven't seen the same continued fall as auto sales. Clearly, auto sales can't be more sensitive than the sensex.

3. BS-6:
Basing my argument on my own position here. With my car in it's 10th year, I am in the market now. But no way I am buying a car with an engine at its end of life. Although the deadline is April '20, it is evident that by Jan BS6 fuel should be widely available, and almost all BS4 models and engines would've seen their replacement, or atleast the plans would be clear. I reckon it is this uncertainty that's holding back prospective buyers. Models that have already jumped the gun seem to be unaffected by this downslide. Case in point - Venue sees 50000 bookings in two months. Are you telling me, without this recession it would've hit 70000 in two months!!!

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Old 5th August 2019, 10:50   #7
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Default Re: The great Indian automobile industry slowdown of 2018-19

A look at Hyundai's sales (Rushlane)

The great Indian automobile industry slowdown of 2018-19-img_20190805_104109.jpg
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Old 5th August 2019, 11:04   #8
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Default Re: The great Indian automobile industry slowdown of 2018-19

There has also been a spate of small-scale consumer loan defaults in the Indian economy, something which has not been observed before. One might assume that jobs have been lost due to some reason. Buying a vehicle would be the last thing on such people's minds.

Also at a smaller scale in the scheme of larger things, a drastic slowdown in recruitment by the IT industry in the last 4 years was like an egg waiting to hatch; with lots of youth not finding employment here, the automotive industry has been robbed of as many potential buyers. Add to it the fact that very few are flying abroad on visas to the US these days, we aren't seeing that many cars entering the used car market. I remember times when 1 year old Safaris and XUV 500s would be put up for sale by owners looking to emigrate in a hurry.

The IT industry represents a decimal of the larger workforce in the country, true; but this crowd has arguably been the automotive industry's single most dependable buying force in urban centers for years now. Both being in decline now, I don't see a coincidence; I see causation.
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Old 5th August 2019, 11:30   #9
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Default Re: The great Indian automobile industry slowdown of 2018-19

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Originally Posted by locusjag View Post
The IT industry represents a decimal of the larger workforce in the country, true; but this crowd has arguably been the automotive industry's single most dependable buying force in urban centers for years now. Both being in decline now, I don't see a coincidence; I see causation.
Well said Sir. In my view, IT industry has been the major player in Automobiles and Real Estate sale. You can see a trend, where almost all IT employees queue up for buying a car or home against a bank loan. After few years, they close the loan and go for an upgrade. If you have been personally going through this loan closure and upgrade cycle, you would have as well seen a lot of your friends, neighbors and colleagues following the same trend. This is applicable for entry level hatchbacks/sedans/small SUVs and similarly for 1/2/3 BHKs in Real Estate. Luxury cars or big size apartments/villas, will have a different set of target audience and will not be too much dependent on any recession or slow down.

IT industry has been seeing a major shift in technology from legacy to digital. Coupled in with Automation and Artificial Intelligence, the demand for non high skilled IT workforce has reduced a lot and it is expected that in 2020, the demand will go down further. With Banking and Healthcare sectors, not doing that well, all the Indian IT Service organizations aren't doing well. A slowdown/recession is highly possible in 2020 and IT industry will go for a major cost optimization (read as firing) to sustain its market projection.

When such possibilities loom in, the spending spree of IT professionals will go down drastically. The lower sales of automobiles or real estate, would definitely be directly proportional to the decline in loans.

This coupled by BS6 norms, legacy vanilla vehicles (compared to Venue, Hector, Seltos) will result in further slowdown for the rest of 2019. We can expect some slight improvement from Q1 2020 onwards. Till such time, the regular BS4 model cars will take a hit and only the newer connected model cars will see some reasonable demands. These players are definitely making hay, when sun is shining in their direction.

Last edited by MukundanMK : 5th August 2019 at 11:45.
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Old 5th August 2019, 14:04   #10
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Default Re: The great Indian automobile industry slowdown of 2018-19

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Originally Posted by MukundanMK View Post
Well said Sir. In my view, IT industry has been the major player in Automobiles and Real Estate sale.

When such possibilities loom in, the spending spree of IT professionals will go down drastically. The lower sales of automobiles or real estate, would definitely be directly proportional to the decline in loans.
There is one trend that we are missing here. With Trump administration, automation and better internet access in India, on-site travel of most IT employees - which is a major force for earning quick money - has reduced drastically. I have seen a lot of people (myself included) making quick bucks this way. Now, these opportunities are used to clear home loans or making investments. Still, I would say IT industry is not exactly hitting a wall anytime soon as there are quite a few cars like the Venue and Hector getting sold. What is more interesting is the way India's own market is behaving.

I am no economics expert but from what I heard from in-laws in small town is that people are saving money as business is slowing down due to lack of cash. Rural and small town junta loves cash transactions, they used to save a lot of tax. One can say its because government is tightening noose on cash transactions or because banks have started doing a lot of due diligence when giving loans to small industries. Also, one major source of cash is real estate dealings which has slowed down due to stricter transaction norms (RERA etc). It will be interesting read a proper analysis from experts. It is worth noting that GST collection still was above 1 lakh INR this month despite such a slowdown in auto industry.
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Old 5th August 2019, 19:56   #11
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Default Re: The great Indian automobile industry slowdown of 2018-19

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Originally Posted by Rajeevraj View Post
[*]Manufacturers have continuously increased prices every year.
[*]In spite of increased prices, there is been no drastic wow factors
[*]Used cars
Well said Rajeev. My present car is a used car, a Ford Figo Titanium which i bought a couple of years ago. As much as i wanted a brand new car, i ended up spending only 40% of the new car price for a 3 year 50k km old car (at the time). What did i miss out from the new Figo? Not a lot actually. I like the new styling and the 1.5D is an improvement over the 1.4D engine. But i did not think that alone commanded a 60% difference in price. Not to mention the advantages that the old gen has over the new gen.
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Old 5th August 2019, 23:57   #12
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Default Re: The great Indian automobile industry slowdown of 2018-19

There is a multiplicity of factors which are affecting automobile sales. While a vast majority of them are internal to the Automotive sector, the external factors are also responsible for the muted performance. I shall try to concentrate on the internal reasons and share some of them here.

INTERNAL FACTORS - THE DEVIL WITHIN

1. Growth vs. Value: The automotive industry has experienced stupendous growth over the last 20 years. It has also witnessed the advent and implementation of new technology and techniques of production. Work that was being done manually 20 years back is now being handled by huge robotic arms. The whole scale of operations has undergone a seismic change. But has it really translated into value for the end customer? Draw a parallel to the mobile handset manufacturing industry, another hi-tech manufacturing industry which has witnessed stupendous growth. The mobile handset industry has been successful in delivering value to it's customers. The cost of handsets have come down significantly and the customer today is spoilt for choice. In comparison, the Indian automotive industry is still serving the customers with the same old products and technology as was available over two decades back. Look at the engine technology, the transmissions, the electronics, the substandard plastics, the substandard quality of sheet metal and materials, the whole architecture and what not; the Indian customer is certainly being taken for a ride in the name of rising input costs. But the manufacturers still continue on their expansion spree; opening new manufacturing plants, setting extensive distribution mechanisms, setting a parallel spare parts market, and the biggest of them all - creating export hubs. Where the money for all of this comes from is best left to one's imagination. If the whole situation is to be explained in one single word, 'GREED' would be it.

2. Increasing Vehicle Prices: I would like to quote a personal example here. I bought the top of the line Honda City 1.5 Vtec. The car had new state of the art engine technology (a Variable Intake Camshaft) for the time, had a good gearbox to compliment the engine's performance, had a reasonably good suspension (but poor set of tyres), and had no electro-mechanical faults present in the vehicle. It cost me close to 11 lacs and was such a joy to drive. I have also been the owner of a 1996 Daewoo Cielo, the car that kind of introduced the twin overhead camshaft technology with four valves per cylinder. It was quite a petrol guzzler but was fairly comfortable and luxurious for its time. Come 2019, what do we have on offer from these manufacturers? The new City is anything but exciting by today's performance standards. It feels relatively loosely built and at a price of over 15 lacs, it just is such an old worn out sock in a new shoe. The same amount of money would probably buy you a mid spec Toyota Corolla in the US but what do we get here? A substandard product which really shouldn't be costing over 10 lacs max. The Hyundai i20 top of the line would cost over 10 lacs for that stupid 1.2 litre engine which starts to struggle while climbing up Delhi's flyovers with 4 people seated and the aircon turned on. And what to make of the 1.4D engine of the Corolla? And that obnoxiously priced Innova which I once bought for just under 10 lacs and now costs almost three times the price. And mind you, there haven't been any major overhauls in terms of the basic architecture of car. Just minor nip and tuck jobs here and there. Manufacturers claim to make a new architecture from grounds up but in reality, almost 90 percent of the times, its only the materials that they change, or fiddle with the length and width of the frame, and not engineer a new architecture/ frame altogether. So what can reasonable amount of money buy today? Tin cans or flimsy built cars splattered with some chrome here and there which are literally coffins on wheels. The 'reasonably priced and affordable car' is such a joke that car manufacturers have been playing on the Indian buyers.

3. Uninformed/ Misinformed Customers: The Indian automotive industry has got a long way to reach a level of maturity, as so do its consumers. The overall domestic vehicle ownership percentage is still pretty low and the road infrastructure still needs a lot of penetration and work. The customers aren't really aware of the product they should be buying and often end up buying something for its sheer novelty factor/ snob value. The good part is that things are catching up fast and with growing literacy and rising disposable incomes, things are bound to undergo a massive change in the next 15 years. This unfortunately can also lead to a lot of people falling into a debt trap by spending more than they can afford. Hence, financial literacy would play a very vital role in ensuring the whole ecosystem remains in a healthy and growing state.

4. The Attractive Used Car Market: We are witnessing a burgeoning used car market in India, especially in the urban market. There are mouthwatering deals available on sparingly used cars. Not just the domestic brands but imports also jostle for a change of ownership at prices which would confuse any mind. Shall I go for a new 16 lac City/ Creta or shall I buy that hoot of a drive, sparingly used and well maintained 3 year old car that goes by the name Bimmer and commands that snob value for just 2-3 lacs more? Shall I buy that bouncy Fortuner or shall I buy that rarely driven Merc? Accord, Camry, or Volvo? These are some of the questions that a prospective buyer has started to have in mind. And more often than not, its the used car market which offers better bang for the buck. I have seen hardly 3 years old car worth over 2.5 crores getting offered for as less as 75 lacs. That's less than 1/3rd its original price and such examples are aplenty in the used car market. Attractive, isn't it?

The Taxi Business: The advent of cab hailing services and their sheer commercial advantage in terms of the cost spent per kilometer traveled can put most informed minds in a dilemma whether to buy a car or simply hail a cab. It costs much less, offers more comfort since one does not have to drive, and is simply much more efficient way to travel since one can use the travel time to complete his/ her work. Simply put, it is just a much more intelligent choice to travel and the number of people turning to this intelligent means of transport is increasing rapidly thereby killing a section of the sales for the car makers.

I shall soon be touching upon some of the external factors responsible for the sharp slide in another post. Since it would majorly depend upon the micro and macro economics of our country, the advent of new public transportation systems like Metro, the digital work culture etc., I would keep it for discussion in a separate post.

Happy Reading!
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Old 6th August 2019, 04:24   #13
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Default Re: The great Indian automobile industry slowdown of 2018-19

I honestly think most of the people out there don't care about upcoming BS6 or Safety norms. People want a car with good features, fuel-efficiency at a decent price.
Some reasons I can think of:
1. Don't know whether it's taxes, greed or currency fluctuations or a combination of the three, the prices of cars have gotten too expensive
2. Uber/Ola and self-drive rentals have also taken away the share of the pie. Saves you the hassle from parking too
3. Old cars are pretty good now. Qualis to Innova in 2007 was a big leap up, but 2009 City vs 2019 City is hardly a step up. Same with the 2009 vs 2019 i20
4. Headlines like 'NGT bans 10 year old cars...' don't make positive newspaper headlines
5. The general trend of Millennials who don't want to spend on cars

I think there are very few people postponing their purchase to buy cars with BS6 norms and BNVSAP certification.

Last edited by landcruiser123 : 6th August 2019 at 04:28.
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Old 6th August 2019, 06:47   #14
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Default The great Indian automobile industry slowdown of 2018-19

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2. Uber/Ola and self-drive rentals have also taken away the share of the pie. Saves you the hassle from parking too
3. Old cars are pretty good now. Qualis to Innova in 2007 was a big leap up, but 2009 City vs 2019 City is hardly a step up. Same with the 2009 vs 2019 i20
5. The general trend of Millennials who don't want to spend on cars
.

Absolutely.

The rise of the usage based and experiential side
The decline of the ownership/ possession side

And yes old cars are indeed fantastic.

For example I paid 19 odd lacs for my Yeti in 2011.
It still runs as good as new because of careful maintenance. But if I were to sell it I might get ~8 lacs if I am lucky and if I sell privately to a fellow enthusiast.

A bloke I know actually went and bought an used Yeti of a similar vintage and as well kept if not better kept than mine. And a year ago, he paid just 7.5'lacs for it. Now that IS a really good value deal!

Another pal bought a Beemer 3 Series from another pal. He paid just 20 lacs for a car less than 3 years old and which had hardly done 25000kms!

In Mid June, I just sold my parents 5.5 year old carefully kept ' I20 Asta top spec MT with 25K on the clock for 4.3 lacs. This I got, for a car that I paid 7.4 lacs for, when brand new in Jan 2014. 3 lacs worth of depreciation in 5.5 years is eminently bearable indeed!

One can get an used Mini or BMW 1 Series for 18'lacs or even 12-13 lacs respectively if one looks. Usually these would be some severely loaded dude's second or third cars and hence, not used much.

Clearly, there is real beauty in these Lateral Upgrades and plenty of savings to be had too!

Only caveat is when buying pre owned pay cash as much as possible and unless unavoidable, stay away from loans - on account of the wicked usurious rates of interest.

The prices of new cars - the less said the better. An Innova which was launched in 2005 at ~ 9-10 lacs is now selling at > 25 lacs for an equivalent spec more or less! Man! Thats crazy! No wonder the Auto Industry is slowing down.

The city and its parking woes are such that for all internal in-city meetings, most people prefer Ride Hailing or Ride Sharing. For Airport drops it is almost always a taxi. For those road trips it is always possible to rent a fancy car for a few days without the headache of ownership and maintenance.

Basically while we were sleeping, the World changed! People just got smarter.

Last edited by shankar.balan : 6th August 2019 at 06:53.
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Old 6th August 2019, 08:08   #15
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Default Re: The great Indian automobile industry slowdown of 2018-19

From my point of view, as a middle class guy, you're under attack from all sides.
an 8L salary in 2009 is the equivalent of 16L now, but you have moved from the 20% to 30+4% tax slab, with the effect that you're earning 14% less now
On the spending side taxes on products have gone up 2-3x, which reduces your spending capacity by another ~20%
Despite all the tax increases, there is no real return on taxes. roads remain as bad as ever, congestion keeps growing up, fuel, insurance and maintenance costs have consistently beaten inflation.
Finally Job Security is also on the downside in IT. Fresher hiring is down, and almost anyone in the 10+ workex age is at risk of being laid off under the guise of performance improvement. In the face of worsening prospects, a depreciating asset is the last thing you want to put your money into, especially when the govt is trying really hard to reduce the value of cars, or make them more expensive by adding more regulation on top.

Last edited by greenhorn : 6th August 2019 at 08:10.
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