[volkman10]

Source: Autopunditz


With Indian economic growth in tailspin, 2019 saw one of the worse decline in passenger vehicles sales.
Will 2020 overshadow this, as a Global recession is looming at large?

Almost every major PV manufacturer suffered from 2019 consumption demand slowdown.

Luxury market too saw a decline in demand by 13%.

New product launch which helped respective manufacturer to fair better than industry decline : Hyundai Venue, Mahindra XUV300, Mahindra Marazzo, Nissan Kicks and Renault Triber.





BODY STYLE:

Almost all segment witnessed de-growth and slight growth in UV segment is due to new or upgraded product launch.

MUV growth was powered largely by new generation Maruti Ertiga and its derivative XL6 and to certain extent by Renault Triber

SUV growth can be attributed to Mahindra XUV300 & Hyundai Venue in lower price band and MG Hector & Tata Harrier in middle price band.



Sedan – sub segments



Monocoque Chassis SUV – sub segment



Ladder Chassis SUV – sub segment



Hatchback



MUV



Fuel & Engine

Diesel penetration was at its peak in 2012 when diesel was highly cross subsidized.

With narrow difference in petrol diesel price, low running cost of diesel is not good enough to offset higher purchase cost of diesel cars over petrol ones

Thus higher inclination for petrol cars in recent times





Petrol penetration has improved across the segments -Diesel is still preferred choice for large MUV and SUV




1200cc petrol engine is still dominant due to differential tax structure

Large diesel engine spread is quite uniform due to UV segment



Maruti-Hyundai together dominates 78% of the petrol powered car.

With 1.25L FCA diesel engine gone, Maruti’s lion share in diesel segment is up for grab for other players.
But do other players have the capability to capitalize on Maruti’s loss?



Price Range

81% cars sold in Indian market were having a price tag of under ₹ 10 Lakhs (Ex-showroom)

High indirect tax rate makes India a low value car market, as major chunk from buyer’s valet goes to Government(s)

Only 6% buyers could afford a car that cost more than ₹ 15 Lakhs (Ex-showroom)

This indicates low level of purchasing power, wealth growth and higher wealth concentration in hands of few



With success of Kwid and Triber, Renault has moved into high volume and low margin segment, major downside of this strategy could be brand image, free cash flow generation, dealer profitability and pricing power in long term.


Starting with Brio in 2011, low cost-mass market driven strategy has costed Honda its premium sheen it use to enjoy a decade back with cars like Jazz, City, Civic, Accord & CRV.


Despite Tata Nano inspired cheap products, like Etios & Liva, Toyota never lost its premium luster, it seems Corolla, Fortuner and Innova have had firmly rooted Toyota’s premium image in India – quite an interesting consumer behaviour.

[neofromcapone]

Superb compilation volkman10.

I believe math is the only honest language, and these numbers indicate the India PV Auto market has come to an inflection point. There are more cars than any of cities can handle.
Unlike before, I feel people will upgrading/changing a car less often and IMHO I think the frugal nature will kick in.

With Corona Virus causing a massive reboot to the worlds economy, the world will change as we know it. How the global auto industry will respond, I feel, even they don't know.

I hope we don't feel depressed with these kind of numbers this year too, we have had a good run, and those good times will come back.

[AZT]

Fantastic analysis. This was a good insight:

81% cars sold in Indian market were having a price tag of under ₹ 10 Lakhs (Ex-showroom)

High indirect tax rate makes India a low value car market, as major chunk from buyer’s valet goes to Government(s)

Only 6% buyers could afford a car that cost more than ₹ 15 Lakhs (Ex-showroom)

This indicates low level of purchasing power, wealth growth and higher wealth concentration in hands of few

[Durango Dude]

2020 is sure of to a very bad start with the Corona Scare > Lock Down > Down in the dumps market sentiment. Financial 20-21 is of to a very bad start and there can be no predictions of how things are going to pan out. ₹ is in a tail spin. Buying power is going to go down and costs are going to go up drastically.

[volkman10]

Petrol Vs Diesel Split in 2019 sales,

- shift towards Petrol models deepened as price gap between Petrol & Diesel fuel price gap is just Rs.7.71/l as of today

- BS-6 transition has made a lot of OEMs (say Maruti, Renault, etc) to move to Petrol only models

- Near to 67% of the cars sold in 2019 had a petrol heart (engine).

-EV’s contributed to only 0.1% of the overall passenger vehicle sales in India.

-Hyundai managed to sneak in 27.3% sales from Diesel models and is expecting to increase the share in 2020 as Maruti is out of the race.

-Mahindra emerged to be the biggest EV manufacturer of 2019! Majority of the volumes was pushed by e-Verito and the EVs contributed to 0.4% of Mahindra’s volumes

-Kia was the first OEM to bring in BS6 diesel. Over 45% of Seltos’s sold in 2019 borne a diesel heart.






Link

[volkman10]

A deep dive into Marut Suzuki's 2019 sales data:

-Maruti’s portfolio majorly consists of hatchbacks and hence the petrol models constitute a major share.

- Compact SUVs (namely Brezza), MUVs (like Ertiga) & Crossovers (say S-Cross) gave diesel models gain traction with Brezza and S Cross being a ONLY Diesel C/Suv.

- In 2019 Petrol models contributed to 77.5% of Maruti’s volumes.

- 52% of Maruti Ertiga was in diesel. Even being an MPV; 48% of Ertiga’s sold were Petrol variant

-While 20% of Swift sold had a diesel engine; Dzire’s diesel contribution was almost double at 41%.

-7% of Baleno’s sold were diesels! Baleno was one of the first Maruti Suzuki models to be upgraded to BS6 in Petrol only

-21% of Ciaz sold had a diesel engine. Petrol models have a higher preference in the segment thus higher petrol model configuration for Ciaz as well.



Link

[Bibendum90949]

Originally Posted by volkman10

In 2019 Petrol models contributed to 77.5% of Maruti’s volumes.

The corner stone of Maruti's decision to exit diesel segment altogether. Would be interesting to see how much of their 23% diesel buyers would remain with them in 2020 by picking up one of their petrol offerings. That pie is the one eyed by the likes of Kia, Hyundai, Ford, Mahindra etc.

Things are not looking rosy for automotive industry , any industry for that matter , in the wake of Covid lockdown is a different matter altogether. Uncertainty looms large everywhere.

[volkman10]

Hyundai's split in Petrol Vs Diesel - 2019 sales.

- Over 72% of Hyundai’s sold had a petrol engine and diesel contributed to 27% of overall sales.

- Bets big on diesel in 2020. The focus on diesel engines is clearly visible in the recent launches done by Hyundai – Aura & Creta.

-i10 Grand had a mere 3% contribution from diesel variant. Discontinued in BS6 plan

-17% of elite i20’s sold had a diesel engine. Now available in petrol only.

-For Xcent+Aura; 75% of the volumes came from the Petrol options

-Creta had a lion’s share from the Diesel Variants – Almost 69% of the overall sales for the model.

-Venue saw major share from Petrol (Normal + Turbo) variants.

-Verna’s contribution from Diesel Variants was 45%. This is high when compared to its peers




Petrol Vs Diesel- Mahindra and Ford

Mahindra:

-Almost 94% of M&M’s sale came from Diesel variants.

- Mahindra was also India’s largest EV maker and e-Verito emerged as the best selling Electric Passenger Vehicle for 2019.



Ford:

-Figo saw 69% of the buyers opting for the petrol variant; while 50% of the Aspire buyers opted for the Diesel variant. The sale of Aspire in Taxi segment has also led to higher diesel sale for the model.

-While Endeavour was the Diesel only model in Ford’s portfolio; Mustang was solely available in Petrol avatar




MG Motors India

-MG Motors India sold 15,930 units of the Mid-SUV Hector in the year 2019 and over 57% of the sales came in from Petrol variants!




KIA:

- Near to 55% of Seltos sold were Petrols. The higher acceptance for Petrol was pretty different when compared to sibling Creta’s case too. Petrol Creta’s were only 31% of Creta’s sales and Diesels contributed to 69% of overall Creta’s sales.



Link

[volkman10]

Diesel Vs. Petrol Split -in 2019 - VW and Skoda:

As the group embarks on its Petrol Only Journey for the time being, here is what we have seen in 2019.



-83% of the Polo’s sold in 2019 were Petrol

-Over 56% of Vento sales came from Diesel variants.

- 54% of Ameo sold in Petrol Avatars.

Skoda: - A different story



- Almost 60% of Skoda’s sold in 2019 had a diesel heart.

- While Kodiaq was available in diesel only configuration; rest Octavia, Rapid & Superb were available in both Petrol/Diesel options.
-
Skoda’s bestseller Rapid had majority of the sales coming from diesel variants.

Petrol v/s Diesel Sales 2019 – Renault & Nissan

Renault and Nissan have a common theme in its sales

Renault:


-Renault had the highest dependency on Petrol models in 2019! The primary reason was the best sellers from Renault were Petrol-only models (Kwid & Triber). Kwid + Triber combined contributed to over 87% of Renault’s sales!

-While Lodgy was available only in Diesel configuration; majority sales in Duster & Captur were from Diesel variant

Nissan:



-Almost 69% of the models numbers came in from Diesel variants.

-Datsun models were powered by petrol engine only and Datsun contributed over 70% of Nissan’s sales in 2019.

Link

[volkman10]

Model wise split in Petrol Vs Diesel sales - 2019











Segment wise spit in Fuel type:






















Link

[haria]

Hate to sound pessimistic, but I believe 2020-21 is going to be a dismal year for ALL industries, especially auto & real estate.

Generally cars are purely discretionary purchases for most of the people and they are going to clamp down hard on their spends

From the consumer side

a) There will be people whose jobs / income will take a drastic hit due to the economic situation.

These group will definitely not even dream of plonking money on cars/vehicles/other discretionary purchases


b) People whose income are not effected by the current turmoil

B-1) Those who will be more cautious in these uncertain times and will hesitate to make ANY investment into these depreciating assets

B-2) Those who have ample money, jobs/profession are not much affected, and who are either passionate about cars/gadgets will not mind spending bucks on this.


From the manufacturing side

First order of the business will be to limp back to at least the same position before this slump. One can expect large cost cuttings across companies. Many ancilliary companies may go bust and the whole supply chain may get affected. Mind you, this is across the world. So finding new markets, etc is going to be real tough. So auto companies may scale down and they may cut even their R&D, which will probably result in lesser new models hitting the market.

Now from the consumer side, those people in Category B-2 will not be keen on buying the same "old" models. So they may also defer buying decision.


On the other hand, used car markets may flourish in a big way - with distress sales and others, many bargain hunters may get some mouth watering deals.

All things considering, it is going to be an especially bleak period for automobile industry.

[aniyo]

Originally Posted by haria

Hate to sound pessimistic, but I believe 2020-21 is going to be a dismal year for ALL industries, especially auto & real estate.

.

Can't agree more. I had a choice of buying a Nexon upfront or Harrier on EMI. My wife put her foot down and we bought a Nexon.
Today am so relived I do not have too much financial commitment.

if I were in the market today, I would hold on to my old car dearly.

[volkman10]

81% cars sold in Indian market in the Year 2019 were having a price tag of under ₹ 10 Lakhs!

-High indirect tax rate makes India a low value car market, as major chunk from buyer’s valet goes to Government(s)

-Only 6% buyers could afford a car that cost more than ₹ 15 Lakhs (Ex-showroom)

- This indicates low level of purchasing power, wealth growth and higher wealth concentration in hands of few.



Link