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Old 14th September 2020, 04:37   #16
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Default re: Petrol vs Diesel sales figures, in the BS6 era! Petrol dominates

No amount of brainwashing by Maruti can convince me to stick to a petrol for my next car. When it comes time to buy, my decision will almost solely be based on whether the car I'm contemplating puts a smile on my face when I drive it. If it's a diesel that will deliver that, a diesel it will be.

Plus, observing the market over a period of 10-15 years, I can firmly say that the price of diesel fuel will always remain lower than petrol. That, and a diesel generally delivers more in fuel economy, power and torque than a car's petrol equivalent. So, diesels are here to stay.

Also, I'm sure Maruti will change its tune once it has a BS6 compliant engine in its stable.
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Old 14th September 2020, 06:39   #17
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Default re: Petrol vs Diesel sales figures, in the BS6 era! Petrol dominates

The shift to petrol cars in the BS6 world makes immense sense. The fact is that most Indian consumers buy small cars, and mainly use them in a bumper to bumper urban driving cycle. The use of diesel cars, which generate massive particulate and NOX emissions, in such circumstances was always stupid from a public policy point of view. With BS6, the emissions come down - but many manufacturers have opted for the LNT + DPF, which requires driving at high speeds for long durations to burn off the soot trapped in the DPF, which is not possible in the urban driving cycle.

So as traffic and routine commutes pick up, we will hear more complaints of clogged DPFs, DPF failures etc - which would in my view make customers less willing to buy the diesel Cretas, Seltoses and lower end products.

Diesel will always have a role - for rural applications (Boleros and Pick ups), and for highway cruisers (the Innovas and Fortuners), so it will not go extinct. But it is certainly good for the world that diesel cars are relegated back to the niche in which they belong and the gross policy error of focusing on fuel economy at the cost of urban air quality is reversed.

Frankly, I think local bodies in urban areas should tax diesel heavily - Such that diesel sells for more than petrol in cities.
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Old 14th September 2020, 10:11   #18
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Default re: Petrol vs Diesel sales figures, in the BS6 era! Petrol dominates

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Originally Posted by darkLightning View Post
The thing that is striking me here is Mahindra's stats. Their approximate 40% sales have come from Petrol even though they have only 2 petrol cars at present in their lineup (KUV100 and XUV300) whereas their diesel portfolio consists their best selling Bolero along with Scorpio, Marazzo, XUV500 (not counting the single unit Alturas). Even XUV300 comes with diesel option as well.

Mahindra's stats in my opinion clearly show a shift happening towards petrol engines.
Something is not making sense with Mahindra numbers. The figures say they sold ~9000 petrol cars from April to July.

As mentioned they have only 2 petrol cars, XUV300 and KUV100.

However if you look at sales data the total sales of these 2 cars is ~5500. Even if they sold only petrol XUV300 the total is nowhere close to 9K.
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Old 14th September 2020, 18:30   #19
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Default re: Petrol vs Diesel sales figures, in the BS6 era! Petrol dominates

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Something is not making sense with Mahindra numbers.
Agreed and the above mentioned model based sales figures of ~500 KUVs and XUV300s if I understand correctly will be including XUV300 Diesel variants also, am I right ?

If so then the discrepancy is even higher. Are Mahindra's figures including their light commercial range of Alfa and Supro as well ? that can be one answer but there again I doubt they have sold in such high numbers in present day scenario.
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Old 15th September 2020, 12:48   #20
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Petrol/ Turbo Petrol Engines are the mid term alternative to the future of electric and hydrogen fuel cell cars. Normal Indians were moving to Diesel mainly due to price difference between fuels. Once that is reduced, the market dynamics changed.
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Old 16th September 2020, 09:45   #21
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Default Re: Petrol vs Diesel sales figures, in the BS6 era! Petrol dominates

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Originally Posted by Hayek View Post
Diesel will always have a role - for rural applications (Boleros and Pick ups), and for highway cruisers (the Innovas and Fortuners), so it will not go extinct...

Frankly, I think local bodies in urban areas should tax diesel heavily - Such that diesel sells for more than petrol in cities.
You make a good point - but how much can taxes on diesel be raised?

With the fuel price hike, the commodities will get expensive and people will feel the pinch. Everything from the bar of soap to the vegetables will be more expensive. Should India launch a pilot program for cheaper agricultural & commercial (goods only) diesel?

Last edited by landcruiser123 : 16th September 2020 at 09:47.
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Old 16th September 2020, 09:52   #22
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Default Re: Petrol vs Diesel sales figures, in the BS6 era! Petrol dominates

Buying a diesel is not very practical in Delhi due to the NGT but people do it anyway... diesel has a great deal of staying power. And sure, who doesn't like a punchy, torquey, efficient diesel?

But I don't think diesels will be tenable for too long. To keep up with the latest emissions norms a whole deal of paraphernalia like a DPF and DEF system is required... these can be easily tampered with or quite simply fail, and Dieselgate has made governments realize this. We will see greater and greater discouragement in the form of rising diesel prices, greater taxes on diesel engines, and so on.

To be sure, Maruti and co. are not dropping diesels because they're tree huggers. But, and forgive me for being selfish, it's bringing many more petrol options to the market-- Given that it's impractical to buy a diesel in Delhi, that's a bit of a boon.
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Old 16th September 2020, 10:05   #23
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Default Re: Petrol vs Diesel sales figures, in the BS6 era! Petrol dominates

Car sales this year in 2020 should not be taken as an absolute, mainly because of Covid, which has changed the entire purchase scenario around the world.
A true figure can be analyzed next year when things normalize to a certian extent. Whereas on the the other side, the diesel - petrol price gap is reducing in India, which is the main factor.

Last edited by ruzbehxyz : 16th September 2020 at 10:06.
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Old 16th September 2020, 10:15   #24
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Default Re: Petrol vs Diesel sales figures, in the BS6 era! Petrol dominates

Taking a simple explanation out of these figures will not be correct. Surely, people are moving towards petrol due to higher bs6 prices, 10 year lifetime in Delhi, etc. However, it isn't as bad as it seems. I feel the number here is skewed by Maruti Suzuki given the stature they enjoy in the Indian market. Just look at Ford, they have an excellent dragon series engine, their highest selling vehicle comes in automatic only with petrol and still the diesel sales are more. This simply shows that there are takers for a good diesel engine.

Maruti: Given that they have 50% market share and no diesel options, there goes the even playing field for diesels. Diesel can only compete in the remaining 50%. So for every 100 car sold in India, the actual fight between petrol and diesels are for 50 cars. However, given that 17.2% are diesels, there are 17 diesel cars sold for every 100 cars. This equates to a 33-Petrol cars vs 17-Diesel cars if we exclude MS from the picture. That's not bad in my opinion in this age (and considering some more manufacturers are currently with petrol only option). We understand the mindset of Indian market. Heck if Maruti would have come up with an only diesel lineup, they still would have got a 50% market share.

I believe the compact SUV is a transition point between petrol and diesel cars. A comparison in their sales would be interesting.

Edit: I removed MS, Renault, VW, Skoda and Nissan from the list to eliminate the skewness. This translates to a total of 165827 cars sold out of which 105544 (63.6%) are petrol and 60283 (36.4%) are diesels.

Last edited by SansGT : 16th September 2020 at 10:24.
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Old 16th September 2020, 12:52   #25
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Default Re: Petrol vs Diesel sales figures, in the BS6 era! Petrol dominates

Good comparison but may not actually paint the right picture yet. For a few reasons

1. Obviously the Pandemic impact
2. Disengaged Brands / looking at Joint Ventures / New ones
3. Fuel Pricing strategy is quite uncertain
4. BS 6 norms / Tax burden - CAPEX for a Diesel vs Cost Price vs benefit for a buyer etc..
5. Reduced Utilization these days (WFH / average monthly Mileage has reduced )
6. The need for a Car has increased across mid sized families slightly in tune of 5-6% i.e. avoiding exposure to public transport as much as possible. (Assumption)
7. New adoption of tech (smaller turbo engines for both efficiency and power etc.)

We may have some clarity once the dust settles on the above issues to a larger extent which is a little far from now.

At this juncture, its an indicative direction the market is heading and probably the petrol car will continue to lead for a while and then EV's may become more common some 5 years from now provided we have the infra and benefits to the end customer!
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Old 16th September 2020, 13:38   #26
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Default Re: Petrol vs Diesel sales figures, in the BS6 era! Petrol dominates

IMO the way forward for light / home users is to go the petrol way. Only commercial applications would warrant using diesel.

It is a known fact that diesel costs anywhere between 3 - 4 Rupees more than petrol ex refinery per liter. The lower cost of diesel at the pump is on account of the taxation structure applied on each fuel.

The lower taxes applied on diesel are intended to facilitate economical commercial operations. However the burgeoning use of diesel in personal transportation adds to loss to exchequer.

Introducing a price differential for commercial and private users will not be effective as easy work arounds could be applied. Hence the only logical route would be to increase the upfront cost of a diesel vehicle for private use to overcome the loss to exchequer. The other alternate being to rationalize the taxation structure on the fuel. The latter would only result in increase in overall cost of everything which any ruling body would be reluctant to take.

The net result would be higher upfront acquisition cost for a private diesel vehicle which when factored into the reducing price differential would result in overall higher cost of ownership. In a price sensitive market that sounds not so good for the future of diesel.
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Old 16th September 2020, 14:22   #27
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Default Re: Petrol vs Diesel sales figures, in the BS6 era! Petrol dominates

I would not consider this data to be representative of what is going to happen with the Automobile industry.

The pandemic along with the uncertain financial future has caused many of us to review and or change our purchases.

The available data is for a period when the taxi industry was at a standstill (more or less) due to the pandemic related causes.

Many individuals or companies thinking of spending on a new Cab (commercial use car) would have put their plans on hold.

Take for example the cabs providing services to the IT industry. With work from home becoming the norm here, these cabs have been out of business since some time now and the situation may not change drastically in the foreseeable future.

On the other side, due to the pandemic, many individual households specially with small families are looking to buy small cars to aid personal mobility and reduce their dependency on public transport (both shared, i.e.: Buses / locals / metros as well as individual, i.e.: Rickshaws, cabs etc.). To buy these small cars, the budget constraints for the first time buyers may not allow for purchase of diesel cars.
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Old 16th September 2020, 18:20   #28
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Default Re: Petrol vs Diesel sales figures, in the BS6 era! Petrol dominates

Without Diesel engines, Maruti is doing good in last 2 months. Actually its better than many expected including me. This shows how much people love Maruti and trust they created in customers minds. But going ahead, MSIL needs good 1.5 liter diesel for cars like Ertiga, XL6, Ciaz, Brezza etc. There are still many people who like diesel engines. MSIL also needs to get something more in SUV segment with powerful diesel. I am sure people will love it.
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Old 16th September 2020, 18:34   #29
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Default Re: Petrol vs Diesel sales figures, in the BS6 era! Petrol dominates

I feel we should not really take this data into consideration. Yes, it shows a shift towards Petrol Vehicles but i do not think that Diesel Sales will have such an adverse effect as shown in the Current Year. Few reasons are-

1. Diesel Fuel will always be cheaper than Petrol. Unless Government imposes a policy where Diesel will be pricier for Private owners in comparison to Commercial Owners.

2. Due to Covid, many offices are not employing the services of the Cabs to ferry their employees. Also, the cab industry as a whole, is hardly working at 30-40% of their total capacity which leads to less usage of their Vehicles and in turn, not making any new purchases.

3. People are working from home nowadays. They are of the thinking that this may continue for a while and thus, are purchasing Petrol Vehicles as their Running will be Low.

These figures will change as the Situation becomes normal (Yes, realistically it will never be as it was before Covid but atleast it will be closer to that).

I still feel Diesel Engines will not go Extinct so easily. There will always be Demand for Diesel Engines among the Private/Individual Buyers. People buying Huge SUVs or people looking for Torquey Engines or for People with high running, Diesel will be always Preferred unless Electric Cars and their Infrastructure becomes not easily financially feasible but also Widely Available.
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Old 16th September 2020, 19:38   #30
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Default Re: Petrol vs Diesel sales figures, in the BS6 era! Petrol dominates

This is a skewed analysis. Many manufacturers have stopped producing diesel variants of many of their models and hence the tilt towards petrol.
Reducing price gap between petrol and diesel is another big nonsense. This is simply because mileage offered by most petrol engines are about 60-70% of that offered by diesel engines. Assuming that one day both fuels are priced at par, even then your running cost of petrol vehicle is 150% of diesel.
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