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Old 17th September 2020, 08:57   #31
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Re: Petrol vs Diesel sales figures, in the BS6 era! Petrol dominates

Diesel engines are not the future. Not in India, and thanks to significant contributions of VW, not in the world. I understand its appeal with respect to mileage and pick up. But, I think this trend will continue of diminishing diesel sales resulting in manufacturers limiting diesels only towards top end. With CAFE and RDE norms coming in from 2022-23, SCR tech would become a necessity, raising prices further of diesel variants. Current gen LNT diesels would bring some sales for the next 2 years though. With less R&D investments globally in Diesels, Govt push for EVs and Blended fuels and Regulatory norms, diesels may very well perish. Denying the above facts is like denying climate science, although that is working wonderfully for some!!!

Last edited by Carma2017 : 17th September 2020 at 08:59.
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Old 30th September 2020, 09:15   #32
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Re: Petrol vs Diesel sales figures, in the BS6 era! Petrol dominates

A quick glance at the PV sales data from the past four fiscals reveals that the share of diesel PVs has shrunk from 40% in FY2017 to 19% in April-August 2020, and that of petrol has increased from 60% in FY2017 to 81% in April-August 2020.

Petrol vs Diesel sales figures, in the BS6 era! Petrol dominates-20200930_090030.jpg

Demand surges for petrol cars and SUVs

Petrol vs Diesel sales figures, in the BS6 era! Petrol dominates-smartselect_20200930085932_chrome.jpg

Petrol vs Diesel sales figures, in the BS6 era! Petrol dominates-smartselect_20200930085944_chrome.jpg

Petrol vs Diesel sales figures, in the BS6 era! Petrol dominates-smartselect_20200930085955_chrome.jpg

Petrol vs Diesel sales figures, in the BS6 era! Petrol dominates-smartselect_20200930090006_chrome.jpg

Petrol vs Diesel sales figures, in the BS6 era! Petrol dominates-smartselect_20200930090021_chrome.jpg

https://www.autocarpro.in/analysis-s...eep-dive-77316
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Old 29th October 2020, 13:20   #33
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Re: Petrol vs Diesel sales figures, in the BS6 era! Petrol dominates

Few most likely outcomes of BS6 and advent of modern Battery EVs(not Hydrogen-FCV).

1. Petrol will remain the strong(and probably the only) choice for most compact personal cars(sub 4m length). EVs will slowly start emerging as a popular niche here like Nexon-EV (and other Maruti & TATA EVs like Altroz & HBX EVs in future).

2. Diesel will remain the strong choice of intercity/highway use cabs, while city-cabs will increasingly shift to Battery EVs and CNG/LNG as CNG-fuelling stations increase in cities(Delhi-NCR, Ahmedabad, Mumbai/Pune, Bangalore etc).

3. Cars & SUVs with 4m to 4.4m length(Creta-Seltos-duster segment) will have larger share of petrol engines than diesel, while larger(D-segment?) cars, mostly SUVs(XUV500, Harrier, Compass, Tuscon) with >4.4m length will remain hugely diesel driven with 80% diesel share.

4. Luxury segment will be dominated by petrols & modern EVs like Audi E-tron, Jaguar I-pace, Tesla(if it comes to india), Mercedes-EQC etc. Diesel share will reduce.

I don't see much future for diesels beyond 2023-2025 when emission-regulations tighten even further in India & good moderns EVs start to become more main-stream. All major OEMs have already stopped sales & development of new diesel engines in the international markets(thanks to diesel-gate) and this strategy has already started to trickle down in India too with VW, Nissan-Renault.

Hyundai-Kia have been pushing diesels in India because diesels are their strength and India is probably one of the last few markets where they still can sell diesels, but at the same time they are increasing their petrol options to be safe with the new turbo-petrol engines.
Eventually, like every other country, India will announce the date of end of ICE car sales and obviously diesels will get hammered first rather than petrol, because a BS6 diesel still pollutes more than a BS6 petrol.

Hydrogen-Fuel-Cell, unlike Battery EVs, is an inherently inefficient tech and wont survive, as it has failed to take-off in international markets.

But, its not all bad news for the torque-heads who love diesel though. The advent of modern Battery EVs in India like Nexon-EV, Kona-EV, MG ZS-EV, & I-pace, E-tron, EQC etc with their instant and insane torque should satisfy the hunger for torque better than diesels.

Lets not blame only VW for diesel-gate. VW may have been the 1st to get caught, but others like Daimler too have paid fines and many like FCA, GM, Nissan-Renault etc have been under investigation for diesel emissions.
(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diesel_emissions_scandal)
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Old 29th October 2020, 14:35   #34
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Re: Petrol vs Diesel sales figures, in the BS6 era! Petrol dominates

Quote:
Originally Posted by Napalm View Post

I don't see much future for diesels beyond 2023-2025 when emission-regulations tighten even further in India & good moderns EVs start to become more main-stream.
May be true in the long term future but the timeline you have mentioned too stringent. I don't see diesels going away anywhere till IC Engines exists. With the advent of BS6, diesels actually emit as much as petrols (marginally more) and there is no big harm with all the advanced systems controlling emission levels. The major concern is maintaining diesel engines with advanced emission control systems. Diesel cars are going nowhere at least for a decade. At the same time, given the rate of growth of infrastructure for EVs, I don't see EVs gaining much popularity in India until there is a huge infrastructural upgrade.
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Old 31st October 2020, 21:55   #35
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Re: Petrol vs Diesel sales figures, in the BS6 era! Petrol dominates

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Originally Posted by SansGT View Post
May be true in the long term future but the timeline you have mentioned too stringent. I don't see diesels going away anywhere till IC Engines exists.
I think you misunderstood me regarding the timelines. Off-course existing diesel cars will not be scrapped by 2025. But would anyone buy a new diesel hatchback/sedan/compact-SUV in 2025, when they know that it does not have a long future? The resale value of a 2025 diesel car in 2029 will be very less. People may not be inclined to invest Rs 10-15 lakhs when they know that its value will depreciate heavily over next 5 years. This is already happening in world over(US & Europe) now. But as I mentioned, diesel has already become irrelevant(<20%) today in many personal compact car segments even though IC engines are very relevant with Petrol, LPG, CNG/LNG. City-taxis/cabs in cities where there are adequate number of CNG/LNG filling stations will never be diesel. Its just economics. And part of it is because of flexibility with Non-Diesel IC engines as they are dual-fuel with option to use both Petrol & CNG/LPG.

Quote:
Originally Posted by SansGT View Post
With the advent of BS6, diesels actually emit as much as petrols (marginally more) and there is no big harm with all the advanced systems controlling emission levels. The major concern is maintaining diesel engines with advanced emission control systems. Diesel cars are going nowhere at least for a decade. At the same time, given the rate of growth of infrastructure for EVs, I don't see EVs gaining much popularity in India until there is a huge infrastructural upgrade.
Well, the diesel-gate was a result of OEMs not able to manage the same effeciency with Euro-6 or equivalent emission-compliance. So the financial viability of diesel engines does suffer with BS6. Diesel in India was hit more severely because of a leap from BS4 to BS6 directly.

But yes , the development of Highway EV-charging infra is very critical. I just hope it improves to enable long-trips in EVs. But for city-usage and short-range(<100 kms) outings, this does not matter as we already have EVs like Nexon-EV, ZS-EV etc with >200-300 kms real-world city range. With EVs plugged-in overnight at home, every morning you have a vehicle with 100% charge/range without needing to go anywhere outside for fueling.

Consider this : the difference between TATA Nexon's on-road prices of top-end diesel and Electric variants in Bangalore is <1.8 lakhs TODAY!
This is even without considering FAME-subsidy of 3L for cabs or the income tax-incentives for personal car buyers and the various state-level subsidies in many states. But with huge fuel & maintenance savings with electric cars over a period of 5 years, the overall cost of ownership is actually lesser than diesel. EVs are already on par with Diesels in economics and thrill(full torque from 0 rpm) TODAY. Its just the range that is an issue for highway trips. By 2025, we will definitely have more affordable EVs with ranges between 300-450 kms.

Hence my optimism.
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Old 31st October 2020, 22:47   #36
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Re: Petrol vs Diesel sales figures, in the BS6 era! Petrol dominates

Quote:
Originally Posted by Napalm View Post
Consider this : the difference between TATA Nexon's on-road prices of top-end diesel and Electric variants in Bangalore is <1.8 lakhs TODAY!

But with huge fuel & maintenance savings with electric cars over a period of 5 years, the overall cost of ownership is actually lesser than diesel. EVs are already on par with Diesels in economics and thrill(full torque from 0 rpm) TODAY. Its just the range that is an issue for highway trips. By 2025, we will definitely have more affordable EVs with ranges between 300-450 kms.
Nothing like having a fast charging EV with a real world range of over 400 KMS. That would be like a dream come true for many. However - as of now expecting that within a span of 5 years & for it to be as affordable as an ICE car might be tricky.

The Nexon EV that you have given an example of - does not have a definitively regular real world range of much over 200 KMs. Might be lower with fast highway driving - because regeneration will be taken out & faster running would drink more juice out of the battery. With a Nexon EV you cant go from Bengaluru to Goa without a significant recharging stop. So for now with India's current infrastructure & the typical rate we show on these things - its not practical to have an EV as the primary/only car for daily office run as well as highway cruising on vacations. Not by 2025 I think. EV can be a good beater car / second car. OR - the customers would need to have a clear mindset that they are buying a car for use only within city & for any vacations they'd go for rentals / flights+local taxi.

I think we need to wait longer for more range batteries to also be compact enough & affordable enough to be in something without a Tesla badge. Then - the real world affordability of an EV in a long term is also a big unknown. We don't have a lot of statistical data on how the battery performance deteriorates with time+charge cycles & individual driving styles. The cost of replacing a battery at its usual end of life might not be exactly peanuts to be able to discount it altogether. Long term reliability, warranty claims, part prices are also a big unknown for now in the mass market affordable segments.

The reason why IMO current sales show an amplified skew in favour of petrol is because a lot of cars simply don't have a diesel engine option FOR NOW. While the Nexon, Altroz from Tata had a diesel engine on paper - the real deliveries of BSVI compliant cars started only about 1-2 months back in 2020. Hence the big gap in petrol & diesel sales. Carmakers like Maruti who dropped the ball are also working on bringing back the diesel engine. The moment it comes back - I'm sure the diesels will make a come back in mass segments too. Especially with the turbo-GDI petrol engines costing as much as diesels now - there will be buyers for the diesels in segments from C sedans, sub-compact SUVs and above. Just adding my perspective of course - I'm not saying yours is wrong or mine is right. Interesting times ahead.

Last edited by Reinhard : 31st October 2020 at 22:51.
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Old 7th November 2020, 18:31   #37
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Re: Petrol vs Diesel sales figures, in the BS6 era! Petrol dominates

Petrol car sales in BS6 ERA reaches an all time high of 82% in H1FY2021

- Share of of Diesel cars has more than halved since FY2017, with most OEMs shift in focus to Petrol Cars.

Petrol vs Diesel sales figures, in the BS6 era! Petrol dominates-petrolvsdieselindia.jpg

Favoring the petrol shift for buyers:

-Thinning price gap between Petrol v/s Diesel fuels
- Higher Acquisition Cost of a Diesel Car
- Comparatively higher maintenance cost of a BS6 diesel vehicle
- Volatile Government norms against diesel cars (Ex: rulings such as a 10-year lifetime of a diesel car in the NCR, compared to the 15-year validity for petrol cars)

- While Diesel Cars contributed to almost 40% of the overall PV sales in FY2017; the contribution has dropped to less than 18% in H1 FY2021! Only 1,54,992 diesel cars were sold in India during the first six months of FY2021; against a sales of 7,21,049 Petrol + CNG cars in the same period.

- Even many OEMs have only Petrol Cars in their portfolio now. It includes the Market Leader Maruti Suzuki and is followed by Renault, VW, Skoda & Nissan.


The OEM wise Petrol v/s Diesel Cars Sales Statistics

Petrol vs Diesel sales figures, in the BS6 era! Petrol dominates-1petrolvsdieselcarsalesindia.jpg

-The Industry Leader Maruti Suzuki has complete dependence on Petrol Cars in post BS6 era. The OEM has now strategically invested resources to push the sale of CNG cars. Almost 11% of the cars sold by Maruti had a Petrol+CNG


- Maruti CNG cars sales almost equaled the overall Kia cars sold in the first six months of H1 FY2021! This signifies the amount of CNG cars sold by Maruti in the said period.

-Hyundai had a pretty significant volume from Diesel Car sales. Hyundai was also the only OEM in India to have a representation in all 4 forms (Petrol / Diesel / Electric / CNG).

-Hyundai too followed Maruti’s footsteps in terms of pushing CNG cars. However; it was able to garner only 3.5% of its overall volumes from CNG cars.

-Only 3 Hyundai models are available in CNG avatar (Santro, Grand i10 & Aura); vs 7 models in Maruti.

-Owing to Nexon EVs popularity; Tata was able to extract almost 2% of its sales from Electric Cars (Nexon EV & Tigor EV). Tata also lowered its dependency on diesels and over 83% of the Tata’s sold were Petrol cars


-Mahindra as an OEM has the highest reliance on Diesel Cars! Even in the BS6 era; over 91% of the Mahindra’s were Diesels.

-Kia had almost equivalent share of Petrol v/s Diesel cars.

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Old 16th December 2020, 19:59   #38
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Re: Petrol vs Diesel sales figures, in the BS6 era! Petrol dominates

Diesel sales fell 3.4% and petrol rose 1.6% compared to the first half of November.

Quote:
Diesel sales contracted 5.2% in the first half of December from a year earlier while petrol sales soared 9.5%.
Quote:
Diesel sales fell 3.4% and petrol rose 1.6% compared to the first half of November, as per the provisional sales data from state-run oil companies, which control nearly 90% of the fuel retail pumps in the country
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Old 23rd February 2021, 17:02   #39
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Re: Petrol vs Diesel sales figures, in the BS6 era! Petrol dominates

Petrol Car Sales reach an all-time high - Market leader responsible for the swing?


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- Petrol mix in new passenger vehicle sales has reached to 83% in 2020!

- Diesel was the dominant fuel in 2012 and almost 54% of the cars sold in India used to run on Diesel!

- Since 2012, Diesel Car Sales have dipped in every consecutive year and is only 17% in 2020! (Apr'20-Dec'20)

- Petrol Car Sales have shot up to a staggering 83% in 2020. This is primarily led by Maruti Suzuki which has shunned diesel engine completely from its portfolio. There are 5 other OEMs that have followed Maruti's path and offers only Petrol option.

- Renault-Nissan and Skoda-Volkswagen has shunned diesel engines completely and switched to all petrol portfolio.

· In past both the groups have developed and sold, much-loved diesel K9K and TDI series engines respectively.

· But reluctance for whatsoever the reason may make them suffer, particularly in the SUV category, where diesel is still the preferred fuel.

-Mahindra’s UV portfolio was largely driven by diesel engine (88%).

· But things may change, as Mahindra will put mStallion range of engine in upcoming XUV 500.

· Thar already has a 13% petrol mix with an all-new petrol engine.

· Toyota’s non-Maruti sourced portfolio is completely diesel driven.

· Ford’s high diesel mix is due to the 1.5L diesel engine, which is quite impressive and easily finds quite many fans too.

· Hyundai-KIA’s LNT based 1.5L is quite cost-effective and doing quite well for the SUV portfolio.

· Tata’s diesel mix for 1.5L is at quite a low now, and upcoming petrol Harrier and Altroz BEV may reduce the mix further.

· Honda’s diesel mix is driven by WRV and Amaze, that too because of the availability of automatic transmission on Amaze and sunroof on WRV.

· Diesel engine could prove to be handy for Honda if only, they get proper crossover/SUV for India.

· MG’s petrol mix is high due to fact that it doesn’t have a diesel automatic transmission on Hector.

· So, if someone wants the convenience of automatic Hector, one needs to settle down for petrol DCT or new CVT, now.

· From 2020, Jeep’s customer too had diesel automatic choice, but it comes at a huge price premium, as it is always coupled with the AWD system.

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Old 17th March 2021, 20:02   #40
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Re: Petrol vs Diesel sales figures, in the BS6 era! Petrol dominates

Petrol continues to dominate in sales:

FEB-21 SALES:

- Around 16.7% of the cars sold in India for February 2021 had a diesel engine

- Mahindra had the highest number of models in the Top 10 selling Diesel Cars for Feb 2021. Mahindra Bolero, Thar & Scorpio ranked 2nd, 4th & 6th respectively in the list and combined contributed to 29% sales in the Top 10!

- Toyota had 2 models in the Top 10 - Innova and Fortuner. They combined sold 7,916 units and contributed to >21% sales in the Top 10.

- Hyundai Creta was India's No.1 Selling Diesel car for February 2021! The model sold 7,558 diesel variants and was the lone offering from Hyundai in the Top 10.

- Kia had 2 models on the list - Sonet & Seltos. Almost 42% of the Kia Sonet sold in Feb'21 had a diesel engine and the contribution from diesel variants for Seltos was 38%.

- Tata Harrier which is a Diesel-only variant ranked 8th in the list and was the sole Tata offering in the Top 10.

- Ford Ecosport ranked 10th with dispatches of 1,948 diesel units in Feb'21.

Petrol vs Diesel sales figures, in the BS6 era! Petrol dominates-1.jpg

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Old 19th March 2021, 17:15   #41
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Re: Petrol vs Diesel sales figures, in the BS6 era! Petrol dominates

Petrol v/s Diesel Cars Sales in India OEM wise for February 2021

Petrol vs Diesel sales figures, in the BS6 era! Petrol dominates-20210319_170726.jpg

Quote:
Maruti Suzuki which is now a predominantly Petrol-only car manufacturer was the No.1 Petrol Car OEM and Mahindra emerged as the No.1 Diesel Car OEM for February 2021.

Almost 22.6% of Hyundai's sold in Feb'21 had a diesel engine. Hyundai was also India's second-largest Diesel Car OEM. The diesel sales came primarily from the SUVs (Creta & Venue).

Diesel models contributed to almost 42% of Kia India's volumes.

Even having an SUV-only portfolio; MG has significant sales coming from the Petrol variants!
Source

Last edited by Venkatesh : 19th March 2021 at 17:19.
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Old 27th April 2021, 13:13   #42
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Re: Petrol vs Diesel sales figures, in the BS6 era! Petrol dominates

Indian Passenger Vehicle Market Fuel Analysis - Q1 2021 (Jan-Mar)- Petrol dominates.

-In the BS6 era, 82 percent of new cars sold in Q1-2021 has had petrol engine.

- Diesel engine now accounts for 17.6 percent only.

- Electric cars too have made some space for themselves at 0.3 percent

- Hybrids contributing to 0.02 percent of the overall mix. (Toyota Vellfire (CBU) and Camry (CKD) are the only hybrids)


Petrol vs Diesel sales figures, in the BS6 era! Petrol dominates-a1.jpg

Diesel Engine Contribution OEM wise :

- Hyundai-KIA duo has emerged as the largest manufacturer of diesel engines, though Mahindra is the largest on a standalone basis.

- For Honda, the mix has reached too low to sustain in long term, unless, they bring in diesel SUV/Crossover

- Tata, for now, is too much dependent on FCA’s for 2L diesel engine, which is selling more than its in-house 1.5L engine

Petrol vs Diesel sales figures, in the BS6 era! Petrol dominates-d1.jpg

Body Style Fuel Mix Analysis:

-SUV/Crossover body style still has strong dominance of diesel engine

-Diesel hatchback demand has sunk too low to sustain for some manufacturers

- Low diesel penetration in the sedan segment

- Except for Toyota Innova, no other diesel MPV is selling so well

Petrol vs Diesel sales figures, in the BS6 era! Petrol dominates-d2.jpg

Electric Cars Sales:

- Tata Motors continues to dominate the electric car segment for now

- MG eZS too had a good run and captured a 26 percent share in the current niche market

Petrol vs Diesel sales figures, in the BS6 era! Petrol dominates-d3.jpg

- Nexon electric now contributes 6 percent to the overall mix


- Tata Motors has shown the right way with Nexon BEV

Petrol vs Diesel sales figures, in the BS6 era! Petrol dominates-d4.jpg

Sales Performance of products with Diesel Engine:

Petrol vs Diesel sales figures, in the BS6 era! Petrol dominates-d5.jpg


- Hyundai Creta is the best-selling diesel car in India, followed by Mahindra Bolero and Toyota Innova

- Diesel engine mix and size of vehicle has a very strong correlation

- Diesel mix has reached quite a low of 7 percent for the small car segment (sub-4m)

- In the large SUV/MUV segment, diesel still rule the roost, with MG Hector being the only exception (as it doesn’t have diesel AT)


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Old 17th May 2021, 21:23   #43
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Re: Petrol vs Diesel sales figures, in the BS6 era! Petrol dominates

Maruti Suzuki Petrol and CNG Cars Sales Analysis for FY2021:

Petrol vs Diesel sales figures, in the BS6 era! Petrol dominates-.jpg

- The Petrol models' contribution spiked from 75 percent in FY2020 to 89 percent in FY2021. With the ousting of the diesel portfolio in FY2021; Maruti CNG car sales rose to an all-time highest volumes of 1,48,211 units and contributed over 11 percent of Maruti's sales.

- Swift was Maruti's and India's best-selling car for FY2021. Swift achieved the feat with just 1 engine option (Petrol)!

- Baleno wasn't much impacted by the lack of diesel engine options and emerged as Maruti's second best-selling car for FY2021.

- Maruti Suzuki Wagon R S-CNG contributed to over 35% of the CNG cars sold in India for FY2021. Among the 1,71,288 CNG cars sold; Wagon R sales were 60,222 units last FY and it emerged as India’s No.1 selling CNG model. Wagon R CNG sales jumped 58 percent from 38,347 units in FY2020!

- Maruti has one of the most comprehensive CNG model portfolios in India right now and 7 models have a CNG bi-fuel option out of its 14 models in the sale! Alto, Dzire, Eeco, Ertiga, SPresso, and Celerio are the other models available in S-CNG.

- Brezza's shift to Petrol was largely successful and it was able to compete with the likes of Venue, Sonet, Nexon, etc which have multiple engine and transmission options.

- Ertiga which was largely dependent on Diesel in FY2020; was able to garner good sales from the CNG portfolio in FY2021.

- Ignis, XL6, S-Cross and Ciaz (coincidentally all Nexa models) were available in Petrol only options and managed well in FY2021 - The only exception being Ciaz which lost almost 45 percent volumes YoY due to the discontinuation of diesel.

Petrol vs Diesel sales figures, in the BS6 era! Petrol dominates-b.jpg


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Old 21st May 2021, 18:29   #44
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Re: Petrol vs Diesel sales figures, in the BS6 era! Petrol dominates

Hyundai India Fuel Mix Analysis for FY2021 - 28% of its sales came from Diesel and CNG models.

- Hyundai's success in the diesel portfolio is largely attributed to its increasing share in the SUV segment. Led by Creta and Venue, Hyundai is also India's No.1 SUV maker!

- Apart from CNG, Hyundai saw a volume decline in remaining engine options in FY2021 vs FY2020

- SUV's are diesel centric in volumes as seen by Creta sales. Almost 60% of the Creta sold in FY2020 had a Diesel heart.

- Venue emerged as the second-largest diesel volume contributor for Hyundai India and almost 21% of the model sales came from diesel trims

- Owing to increase acceptance of CNG models, the contribution shot up to 5% in FY2021 against 2% in FY2020.

- Kona's sales have more than halved in FY2021 and is losing out to the competition heavily

-The market inclination towards petrol cars has surely happened in FY2021 - Even, in Hyundai's case the petrol sales fell by -4%; but diesel volumes slumped by -11% in FY2021 vs FY2020.


Petrol vs Diesel sales figures, in the BS6 era! Petrol dominates-1.jpg

Petrol vs Diesel sales figures, in the BS6 era! Petrol dominates-2.jpg


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Old 27th May 2021, 21:37   #45
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Re: Petrol vs Diesel sales figures, in the BS6 era! Petrol dominates

Diesel car penetration fell to 17% in April 2021 with just over 50K cars dispatched by OEMs. The top 10 cars contribute to more than 70% of total diesel car sales and feature SUV body styled vehicles.

Petrol vs Diesel sales figures, in the BS6 era! Petrol dominates-20210527_213307.jpg

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