[volkman10]

Over 60k Diesel cars were sold in India since April 2020. Hyundai, Mahindra & Kia have emerged as the biggest diesel car manufacturers in the BS6 era!




- Many OEM's have pledged (at least for now) exiting the diesel segment. Maruti, Renault, Nissan, VW & Skoda are now petrol-only car manufacturers.

-The trend to be seen here is the rampant acceptance of Petrol engine.

- Over 17% of the cars sold in India were Diesels

-The thinning price gap between Petrol & Diesel fuel cost have also been a major factor in this shift.

-With the differential of pricing not reducing to <₹ 10 customers are not willing to pay the higher price of diesel cars during their purchase.





- Maruti Suzuki had a 22% diesel holding in sales in the era prior to BS6, taking a huge gamble in exiting diesels seems to have favored the leader.

- Maruti sales hasn’t affected much post BS6/Covid era as the petrol acceptance in hatchback/compact sedans is on a rise due to the initial low acquisition cost.

-Still a large set of buyers who have opted for the pricier Diesel cars in the Mid SUV segment / Premium segment. This segment leaves opportunity in the hands of the OEMs having a BS6 Diesel engine options. Maruti Suzuki has currently no offering in these segments.

-Diesel variants in the segment - Hyundai & Kia emerged as the biggest beneficiaries. Both OEMs combined sold over 45% of the diesel driven cars between Apr-July 2020.

-Around 60,283 diesel cars were sold out of the overall passenger vehicle sales of 3,51,141 units. The diesel contribution was over 17% in the overall PV sales.

-Petrol Driven cars now dominate over 82% of the Passenger Car Sales and has moved up from 66.9% contribution in 2019

-Toyota has the highest dependence on diesel cars; and is now followed by Ford & Mahindra. The OEM-wise diesel dependency is as ranked in order.




Will Petrol cars dominance be sustained, or else Diesel car sales are going to rise against all odds?

Source:Auto Punditz

[CEF_Beasts]

Biggest contributor for low diesel numbers was Maruti Suzuki who don't have a BS6 Diesel engine in their portfolio. If they had one the difference would have been signifiant percentage-wise! Honestly it's their bad luck and wasted opportunity they couldn't make the 1.5L diesel BS6 compliant before/by the deadline.

As long as diesel engines are made BS6 compliant demand will persist right till the time IC engines die. A diesel engine is a diesel engine, Period! No amount of advertising by M&S will push customers away from diesels. For people whose cars spend more times on the highways will definitely go for diesels no doubt.

Regarding the price difference of <Rs10 say Rs 8,9 it is still significant when you fill a tank with even 30L of fuel, especially for cabbies who fill fuel on the basis of cost rather than fuel quantity, you save money for sure! If the difference between the two fuels comes to Rs2-3 then maybe people will consider petrol. Another eg- say i have a diesel fortuner with a tank capacity of 80L realisticly it fills till 70L so my cost for diesel will be roughly Rs 5600 whereas if it would have been Rs 6230 for the same amount of petrol (Mumbai prices), let alone more visits to the pump due to low fuel efficiency of petrol.

Small capacity Turbo petrols have stormed into the market but still they need some time to get smoothened out in various factors; smoothness, reliability, fuel efficiency, vibrations, etc.

[searacer932]

Originally Posted by volkman10

-Toyota has the highest dependence on diesel cars; and is now followed by Ford & Mahindra. The OEM-wise diesel dependency is as ranked in order.

You are getting confused with the ratio of petrol/diesel cars sold by the manufacturer! Kia selling 46.1% of their cars with diesel engine does not mean they have a 46.1% dependency on diesel .

Heck Hyundai/Kia have so many engine/gearbox combination they have the least dependency on any kind of ICE engine!

[libranof1987]

In my opinion, these numbers shouldn't be taken very seriously. This year is well worth being written off from a statistics point of view given how Covid has affected every possible decision in your life. No, while it may not have affected a petrol vs. diesel decision, it has had significant impact on car buying decisions themselves.

As for the diesel numbers, these were expected given Maruti Suzuki's rather sly campaign on projecting a very high break-even for diesel cars. They have based this decision and propaganda not on numbers or analysis but perhaps on their capability in developing a BS6 diesel engine and push for CNG instead. When an OEM with 50+% market share creates a dynamic, that's bound to have serious cascading effect.

Then there's several OEMs discarding/downsizing diesels altogether from their portfolio - a consequence of dieselgate.

This is like how Maruti Suzuki says Indians don't care about safety basis no. of people purchasing the (O) variants of their cars when they won't even sell them.

[sanchari]

Dzire diesel was the most common car used as cabs. Wonder what is going to replace that going forward. Of course, it will take some time for cab ridership to go back to pre-covid levels. After that , fleet sales is bound to pick up. With no cheap MS diesel models around, wonder which one will be become the favourite.

[lamborghini]

Originally Posted by sanchari

With no cheap MS diesel models around, wonder which one will be become the favourite.

In Mumbai CNG cabs are pretty common, so won't be surprised if they switch from diesel to CNG.
Long distance taxis however & private taxis will have an issue and will mostly go the Hyundai / Ford way.

Personally I'm not surprised to see lower number of diesels sold for the following reasons:
- price gap between petrols and diesel fuels have narrowed down
- BS6 diesels have a substantial price increase over petrol

For these two reasons it doesn't have as much a cost saving as it once did.

Similarly, with Maruti & other manufacturers discontinuing diesels - the availability itself is limited, and only for whom it makes financial sense are now opting for diesels : especially when many cars now have competent petrol options to lure the power hungry amongst us.

[Samba]

Nothing surprising at this point of time. Though this is not the correct time to judge the exact situation. Fuel prices are going up day by day, economy is down, people are avoiding to travel as much as possible.

Still few reasons, I can think off-

1) The biggest market share holder Maruti stopped the production of diesels.

2) The price between petrol and diesel is reducing day by day. In West Bengal the difference is just Rs 5-6/ L.

3) Diesel cars cost more and service cost is higher too. During this Covid time, usage of cars has reduced for the majority of people. Most of the IT giants are encouraging work from home.

4) To justify the price gap between diesel & petrol, the amount of distance one need to cover is beyond the requirement of most of the users.

5) People with a lower income, who need to travel daily are buying the commuter segment two wheelers.

6) The new petrol engines are quite fast and fuel efficient, plus the turbo charged petrol engines are producing a healthy torque too, to power the bigger cars.

7) Life of diesel cars are curtailed in some places by the new Govt norm (NGT). This has injected the fear to people living in other states too.

[CrAzY dRiVeR]

Originally Posted by CEF_Beasts

Biggest contributor for low diesel numbers was Maruti Suzuki who don't have a BS6 Diesel engine in their portfolio.

+1.

While it is easy to say that petrol is dominating - it will obviously be the case when a manufacturer with ~33.5% of diesel car sales during the same period last year suddenly exits the market. This single factor caused the major slump from 32% over a similar period last year to 17.2% this year.

Some other players also exited different segments, and the result shows in their market shares of diesels. For example - TATA no longer sells Tiago and Tigor diesels - and it shows!

BUT - There is another story to tell too - one which the headline figures doesn't reveal!

• Hyundai, however, has increased sales from 27.6% last year to 29% - without exiting any segments.
  
• Ford increased diesel sales from 56.8% last year to 64% - without exiting any segments.
  
• Kia, MG, FCA, Honda, Toyota remains more or less consistent with only minor changes.

If buyers are migrating to petrols from diesels - why aren't these brands not losing market share by the same proportions as the overall fall in sales? I believe customers are playing it safe with brands during these COVID times and that has helped Maruti retain similar sales for small cars like Swift, Alto, WagonR, DZire and Baleno even without a diesel option.

But those who took the plunge and committed to BS6 diesel engines are getting to retain customers the same as earlier - especially options higher up the price range.

[ph03n!x]

Who'd have imagined 82% Petrol ex-factory and Tata being written in the same line!

This also puts a count to their EV sales, 2.2% or little over 1,050 cars sold by Tata since May were EV - wonder how many were Nexons.

Back on topic, I wouldn't read too much on these numbers - Maruti, Renault and VW were the quitters, and whatever their reasons be, the true market reaction will take another 6 months at least, what with the pandemic pushing car buying decisions for those who want a big car or SUV to a later time - small cars anyway were dominated by Petrols.

The numbers of Brezza, Duster, DZire Tour (taxi variants), Ertiga/ XL6, etc. around April '21 will tell us how much of a true impact the no-Diesel decision has made. And make no mistake, Maruti is getting it's 1.5 Diesel ready for BS6 (wonder what they'll do with their Calculate Kiya Kya marketing then!), and will not let Hyundai take the Diesel crown in personal and taxi markets without an attempt or fight.

The losers will be Renault & Co., who'd have to contend with small cars (Koleos to Triber?! ) and VW group, who have given the luxury end of the spectrum to the other two Germans on a platter anyway!

[Vid6639]

This is a good shift and this is the way forward imo.

The diesel's are good for the larger vehicles like Innova and Fortuner but are really not needed lower down. It's fine for manufacturers to offer them but they should offer it only for buyers that really need it.

There are some manufacturers like FCA who still have to rely on diesel engines since their petrol options are nowhere as good.

Honda is a good example of what the trend should be. 80% petrol 20% diesel. The petrol engines are brilliant and only those who need the frugality look at the diesel.

Hyundai and Kia are the clever ones imo. It looks like their turbo petrol engines are not cheap to make so they have priced them at a premium. On top of it they offer more options to the buyer in Diesel variants than petrol. Turbo petrols are exclusive to select variants but you can get diesel across the board. A buyer sees lower priced diesel variants but only premium top end priced turbo petrols. If they start offering the turbo petrol across the board, I am sure this ratio would be 70:30.

Personally I am recommending anyone who asks me to go for petrol. Unless the running is massive like 1.5-2K+ every month and the diesel car is significantly more fuel efficient. This itself is less than 20% of the public.

[sid_deb]

Would anyone also have a similar view on the luxury segment (Mercedes, Audi, BMW, etc.)?

Further a cut by location? My bet is that Toyota's 30% petrol sales are primarily coming from NCR and other metros due to the NGT rule.

[Vid6639]

Originally Posted by sid_deb

Would anyone also have a similar view on the luxury segment (Mercedes, Audi, BMW, etc.)?

Further a cut by location? My bet is that Toyota's 30% petrol sales are primarily coming from NCR and other metros due to the NGT rule.

Audi will be 0% diesels.

Toyota 30% will be Glanza+Yaris which are only petrol. The Innova and Fortuner will be a very small % in petrol. Toyota sold ~7700 Innova and Fortuner from April to July and ~3000 YAris and Glanza. Out of the ~7700 I am guessing 10% was diesel.

[airbus]

Originally Posted by Vid6639

Personally I am recommending anyone who asks me to go for petrol. Unless the running is massive like 1.5-2K+ every month and the diesel car is significantly more fuel efficient. This itself is less than 20% of the public.

My current car (TUV300) is a diesel one as that's the only option I had while buying. But my next car may be petrol if I get equivalent engine option as diesel provided I don't need to compromise much on power and torque.

[darkLightning]

The thing that is striking me here is Mahindra's stats. Their approximate 40% sales have come from Petrol even though they have only 2 petrol cars at present in their lineup (KUV100 and XUV300) whereas their diesel portfolio consists their best selling Bolero along with Scorpio, Marazzo, XUV500 (not counting the single unit Alturas). Even XUV300 comes with diesel option as well.

Mahindra's stats in my opinion clearly show a shift happening towards petrol engines.

[Yieldway17]

Diesel is not going to go down to 0% unless the government outright bans it for passenger cars which I don't think they will do.

But, it's inevitable because of various prevailing factors that Diesel will be relegated to less than 10% and will remain there. There definitely is a sticking power of Diesel for 10-15% of passenger cars at the bare minimum.

Also, hoping EVs slowly start crawling upwards from here. Petrol cars will find themselves in similar position to Diesel in a decade or so competing with EVs instead.