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Old 9th November 2020, 14:32   #31
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Default Re: October 2020 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

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Originally Posted by adithya.kp View Post
After COVID, one cant do it since offices are closed, not much travel)
Can someone help us understand who the buyers are? I am very curious to know.
Travel is not just restricted to office commute but all sort of movement between point A and B. People are mostly staying away from public transport (but things seem to be changing MTC and TNSTC buses seem to running almost full). And in general travel has come back to normal at least this is what I've noticed. Not just the new car market, even the used car market seems to be booming. Folks who have money at disposal or who can afford to spend are going ahead with purchase.

Quote:
Originally Posted by amol4184 View Post
No matter what government says and does, a lot of people are taking the virus seriously (I am glad).
Not everyone buddy not everyone!
Based on what I've seen in Bangalore and Chennai, people are going crazy for shopping, no social distancing, no mask and utter disregard of other people.

if you want a demo you can always drop by the shopping centers in Chennai I'm sure you will see the other side of the spectrum.
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Old 9th November 2020, 14:55   #32
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Default Re: October 2020 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

These numbers confuse me!

The mass layoffs across sectors, job losses by hundreds of thousands of people, losses suffered by countless businesses over past 6 months would not have predicted such a splash! Cars for most Indians are second most priced possessions after homes and if they are indicative of general economy, we almost seem to be in an economic boom!
And then, there is share market which is touching all time high!

Either we are completely out of sync with the reality or people have huge disposable incomes or the reality is not as bad as superficially looks like (which I don't believe to be true).

Of course, one can always argue that these numbers make up for a very tiny proportion of total population but still.

Or maybe, it's just that I am too conservative in my thought process!
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Old 9th November 2020, 15:08   #33
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Default Re: October 2020 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

I donít understand. CRV is long gone from dealerships still we see the highest number of sales in last month? On other note, CRV seems to be the lowest entry tag for getting into D2 Segment in spite of recent price hike.
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Old 9th November 2020, 15:41   #34
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Default Re: October 2020 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Wow the numbers look more promising than last year festival time. !!

I couldn't help but to compare Honda and Toyota. Toyota numbers look decent due to cross badged Maruti cars(imagine if they didn't have any partnership!!). Wondering what strategy Honda has to bring customers to showrooms? For now it is very clear that Honda is taking a beating due to lack of SUVs in their portfolio.

Hoping for a sustained growth !!
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Old 9th November 2020, 16:01   #35
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Default Re: October 2020 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

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Originally Posted by DreamsUnlimited View Post
These numbers confuse me!

Of course, one can always argue that these numbers make up for a very tiny proportion of total population but still.
Well that’s actually a strong reason. The major chunk of public(daily wage labours, small roadside vendors etc) that got affected adversely due to covid lockdown and eventual economic slowdown don’t really own cars anyways. At best they manage two wheelers. And about job loses, well I can speak for IT industry and here whoever I know(with experience less than 12-13 years) lost job, got another one within a month or two, severance package ended up becoming a bonus for them. 2 of my friends who were laid off from accenture used the severance pkg(6 month salary worth) to buy new cars

The folks who are buying now are those who deferred their purchases due to the uncertainty around March-September. So the usual buying junta for festive season plus the ones who had held back are coming together leading to these numbers IMO.

But then since these are shipments let’s wait for a couple of months to see if the trend continues.

Last edited by SoumenD : 9th November 2020 at 16:11.
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Old 9th November 2020, 16:19   #36
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Default Re: October 2020 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Maruti is doing great without diesel is very very surprising to me. I thought they would struggle without diesel but not really. I have to eat my words back which i said few months back. Great month for Maruti, top 5 are Maruti, 7 in top 10, 10 out of top 20 and total sales volumes are mind boggling. Add 6 K of Toyota which are Maruti only and they cross 50% mark. November will be no different and i guess Maruti will make new sales record.

Tata had a great month as well. Get Hornbill with proper testing done & you can do much more numbers for sure. Harrier doing good numbers along with Tiago, Nexon and Altroz. No Hexa sold in last 6 months?? Really sad for such a good car.

Kia doing great, Sonet is blockbuster hit. 400 Carnivals is also big thing.

Hyundai doing exceptionally well with Creta. Venue supporting well. Santro, Aura struggling.

Honda has better month with City doing great but i guess after festive season is over, this bubble will vanish. Amaze doing some good numbers too.

Toyota is down. Maruti cars supporting them big way to show numbers.

VW, Skoda just floating in the sea, not going anywhere.

Ford, Renault struggling, Nissan what are you doing here? Better make India as your production hub.

Last edited by aniketi : 9th November 2020 at 16:27.
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Old 9th November 2020, 16:26   #37
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Default Re: October 2020 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

I expect new car sales to remain buoyant over the next 3-4 months. Thanks to employees (who have reasonably stable jobs such as Govt, PSU etc) who will try to take advantage of the LTC Cash Voucher Scheme announced by Finance Minister on 12th October (link).
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Old 9th November 2020, 17:29   #38
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Default Re: October 2020 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

New vehicle registrations down by 24% in October 2020

According to the data released by the Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (FADA), vehicle registrations declined by 24% in October 2020. Overall sales stood at 14,13,549 units, compared to 18,59,709 units in October 2019. However, the MoM data shows a growth of 5.11%.

October 2020 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis-1.jpg

Demand in the passenger vehicle segment was high due to new launches. But, the same cannot be said about the entry level motorcycle segment that witnessed a lean demand.

October 2020 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis-2.jpg

Small commercial vehicles are back in demand as local goods transportation is back to pre-Covid levels. However, the medium and heavy commercial vehicles segment continues to be in the red. On the other hand, the tractor segment continues to grow at 55% YoY.

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2-wheeler sales declined by 26.82% to 10,41,682 units compared to the same month previous year.

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3-wheeler sales were down by 64.50%. 22,381 units were sold compared to 63,042 units in October 2019.

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Passenger vehicle sales declined by 8.80%. 2,49,860 units were sold compared to 2,73,980 units in October 2019.

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Commercial vehicle sales dropped by 30.32%. 44,480 units were sold in October 2020 compared to 63,837 units in the same month previous year.

Tractor sales increased by 55.53% to 55,146 units.

Link to Team-BHP News

Last edited by TusharK : 9th November 2020 at 17:30.
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Old 9th November 2020, 17:50   #39
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Default Re: October 2020 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

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Originally Posted by TusharK View Post
New vehicle registrations down by 24% in October 2020
There is the missing statistic. The numbers given earlier were just dispatches anticipating high sales during the festive season. So, the actual sales were much lower as compared to the projected dispatches which means the market hasn't really recovered to 2019 (which was already a down year, let alone 2018) levels after all!
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Old 9th November 2020, 18:52   #40
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Default Re: October 2020 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Encouraging news. The automobile sector is a key growth driver due to the upstream and downstream sectors it impacts.
India still has a looooong way to go though.

Look at the below numbers for now many vehicles were sold by GM (1 vendor) in China alone last quarter.

SHANGHAI Ė General Motors and its joint ventures delivered more than 771,400 vehicles in China in the third quarter, an increase of 12% on a year-over-year basis.


https://media.gm.com/media/cn/en/gm/...012_sales.html
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Old 9th November 2020, 19:19   #41
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Default Re: October 2020 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

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Originally Posted by Hayek View Post
Jeep - I love the Compass. Before the Seltos, would have picked the Compass. But Kia has ended up giving 90% of what the Jeep offers for a lot less - and killed Jeep sales.

VW Group - yes, they are treading water waiting for their new products in 2022. But what are they doing with the Aurangabad plant? Why canít they locally assemble the Kodiaq or Tiguan or Karoq instead of relying on CBUs without homologation. I can understand it if they didnít have the plant. Or if they were using a different engine in these products. But they are not. So donít get the strategy.
Looks like Jeep needs some more products, or else have a lower-end Compass. May be one with its 1.6 multijet diesel or so which Jeep seems to be marketing elsewhere. There will be a market for them in India, especially among those who want a non Asian crossover in diesel. Beyond Creta/Seltos, we don't have any option here. Probably, Jeep can try and test this by launching a special edition in limited numbers. This should also enable Jeep to price the vehicle in the Creta zone.

Skoda has sold 1024 Rapids, despite the absence of diesels. They used to do around 900 per month when they had engine options and DSG. SOo, not to worry if this trend continues till they launch both the next gen Rapid and the Vision IN. VW selling 1564 Polos also seems to say the same. No need of diesels...?
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Old 9th November 2020, 22:30   #42
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Default Re: October 2020 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Quote:
Originally Posted by DreamsUnlimited View Post
These numbers confuse me!

The mass layoffs across sectors, job losses by hundreds of thousands of people, losses suffered by countless businesses over past 6 months would not have predicted such a splash! Cars for most Indians are second most priced possessions after homes and if they are indicative of general economy, we almost seem to be in an economic boom!
And then, there is share market which is touching all time high!

Either we are completely out of sync with the reality or people have huge disposable incomes or the reality is not as bad as superficially looks like (which I don't believe to be true).

Of course, one can always argue that these numbers make up for a very tiny proportion of total population but still.

Or maybe, it's just that I am too conservative in my thought process!
A lot of the layoffs were in the contract labour sector. We didn't even get clear data in the white collar sector to make any judgement.


With a bountiful monsoon, the govt buying up stock and boosting the msp, the rural areas are also seeing a boost in income levels.

The media played doomsday tunes 24/7 apropos any sound analysis and many fell for it.

Facts are that the fundamentals are sound and with the spurt of reforms the economy was bound to grow.

I remember arguing against casandras in this very forum who were saying that the auto market is dead and gone, well here we are. We have very low per capita vehicle ownership levels, our economy is set to grow even conservatively at 5-6% / PA leading to greater disposable income and thus more cars and bikes.


The two things the govt should do is increase deficit funding this year and increase dbt to drive consumption.

Reduce interest rates (very high amongst peer economies) to again spur demand.

I think that more than the numbers, the swift and Baleno trumping the Alto is an epochal shift in our auto market and economy by extension.
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Old 9th November 2020, 23:17   #43
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Default Re: October 2020 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Don't know how the hell in this world Maruti manages to sell so much Vitara Brezza's in a month even though they were not that much selling in the previous months. They have such big dealer network that there numbers are so high. But still one can't deny the fact that they are still segment leaders with 7 of the top selling cars out of 10.

Hyundai+Kia doesn't seem to be slowing down with such huge numbers of the Creta's and Seltos's and the new arrival in the form of Sonet is literally on fire.
Let's see how they turn out in long term since the Seltos is still a hit. Also, they have the best product lineup currently. All types of Automatics and Diesels and heck even CNG's.

Ford, Toyota, and Honda, no offense, but they are going out of the competition. The Aspire , Figo twins are competent products but to no avail with such huge cost cuttings also Amaze and City getting things going for Honda. Toyota still has their products in the premium segment so they are still stable in their segments.

And the showstopper be the performance by Tata Motors. There product portfolio is diverse, Nexon, Altroz and Tiago leading from the front. They really deserve the success. Harrier, you beauty, is really fresh on the roads.
Still, they need the Hornbill and Gravitas to hold their no.3 position.
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Old 10th November 2020, 02:54   #44
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Good to see Tata doing well. Well deserved. Hope upcoming cars like Gravitas, Hornbill will strengthen the position of Tata even more. Exciting times ahead. Itís going to be tough #3 competition between Tata & Kia.
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Old 10th November 2020, 07:54   #45
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Don't know how the hell in this world Maruti manages to sell so much Vitara Brezza's in a month even though they were not that much selling in the previous months....
I think the reason is a combination of factors namely:

1) Lack of parts due to Covid crisis leading to lesser numbers of cars produced and hence pent up demand. One has to keep in mind the saves and volumes at which parts are required by Suzuki.

2) Huge dealer network of 3000 odd dealers. So if every dealer sells 3-4 vehicles only, Suzuki touches 10K mark.

3) Due to Toyota Urban Cruiser vehicle preparation, there was some volume loss.

4) It's a Suzuki make vehicle with pedigree and relative peace of mind due to Service network.

5) Statistical likelihood of existence of people who actually like the sharp corners based styling over the soft curves employed in Sonet and Venue.

6) Suzuki dumping cars on dealers to counter Sonet. Seems a bit unlikely as the actual retail sales are much higher than what was dispatched to dealers by a good margin.
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