[ajmat]

Okay, 2020 is over. Some stuff that we expected were

• The Chinese incursion stemmed on the western side of India for now
• Honda chopped off its nose.
• Nissan is slowly regrowing its limbs
• VW cannot get on a proper diet, it gave up an oily diet for an spirited one
• Audi commited Masochistic Asphyxiation
• MG are everywhere almost like McDonalds (cars are shaped like hamburgers so am not surprised)
• Kia broke in to the market despite breaking down

Took a week off, in between intense work and sanitized reviews, some creative thoughts came out on what to expect in 2021. Would be fun to review towards the end of next year. Note, a lot of these are pure speculation!

So lets begin!

Ford




Will need to do something more drastic. The new SUV will be a decent shot in the arm. The upward trajectory will be Fords's to lose. Its time for the EcoSport to be flushed down the potty. The Puma would make a great replacement. Expect that the Chennai facility might get upgraded in anticipation of a Puma and the new midsized SUV. Sanand (which must have been set up under political pressure) will continue with the Figo. The Figo might be relaunched with attractive pricing. Expect the Aspire to be dropped. You never know, Sanand might see some Fords with MG badges rolling out!


Mahindra




Dr Goenka – great car guy, lousy strategic business acumen. however, the Thars success, absolves him of his bungles! He retires. SsangYong will be cut loose or left to wither and die. Expect the mediocre KUV to be axed. The XUV 300 will be repositioned a little cheaper with more promotion. An electric version will enhance the brand. Expect a new Scorpio to be announced. The new XUV500 will hopefully learn from the Harrier hurrier experience and launch with less niggles – expect a plug-in hybrid version. Mahindra electric - except for the XUV300, expect very little or nothing.


Maruti



Will continue to wallow in its mediocrity. Perhaps a sport Swift 1.5 might pop up out of nowhere. Expect new models with Toyota platforms to appear. Am sure a rebadged Yaris might be on the cards. Also expect some hybrids to be phased in, the Brezza

Only flash in the pan will be the Jimny.


Hyundai



They will continue to tweak the Creta and Venue. Like Maruti, it gives them volume. Unlike Maruti, they give good margins. The i10 will get small tweaks. The i20 will see big discounts. The Verna and Elantra remain anonymous.

The new Tucson will create more demand

Kia



While not attending to warranty costs, Kia will continue blitzing with new products. I would expect the Sorento to come in as imports. They might pull a surprise and bring in a small car also using the i10 supply base.

[ajmat]

Audi




Yawn, the Q3 will come in time for yummy mummies to replace theirs. However, all depends on price. They should have learnt from the Q2. Audi will most certainly be putting pressure on its parent to bring back diesels which might come a little late. Expect the Q5 to return. The Q7 petrol will get quietly dropped. The new A3 might give some volumes if well priced. Skoda might burn them as the Octy gets priority in Aurangabad.

Note, its been so long since Audi launched a car that I had to use an older pic!



BMW



sorry



The 2GC will start seeing discounts. The 3 and 5 will sell well with discounts except that the 3 LWB will canabalise the C class and the 5. The X7 supply will be restricted in order to ensure better margins (these are so popular in Bangalore). A wish – the 128ti gets imported in limited quantities.

Expect the plugin X5 to appear depending on government incentives.

The iX will appear depending on the Taycan success


Mercedes



The A class saloon will sweep up more sales - It will take the A3 and conquer CLA would be buyers. Don't expect any other small Mercs except for the GLA. The C class will slow down. The E class refresh will be a big hit, it looks like the forthcoming S class at a glance. The S Class will be a huge hit. AMG SUV coupes will remain popular at the expense of high-end C class variants.


FCA



Small spark with the Compass refresh – I really cannot expect much from this engine manufacturer who make a few cars on the side. They might assemble a few Citroens instead. They should have brought the Renegade in.

Citroen



Might do reasonably well, it will be a niche, gadget laden soft riding mediocre driving machine. But Indians love this kind of thing!

[ajmat]

Nissan



All depends on the Magnite’s success. Nissan will be rebuilding the dealer network. Expect a successor to the Micra/ Sunny. The Kicks might get a little boost in demand due to Magnite's walk in allure.

Renault



The Kiger will be its main focus. Expect a Duster replacement announcement towards the year end. This will be a higher spec variant distanced from the Kiger

Volkswagen



The Tiguan All-Space will be sold in a fire sale. The new SUV will be moderately successful. Expect the Virtus to come by Diwali. The Passat TSI will slip in but in limited numbers. Expect the T-Roc to be relaunched as an assembly product depending on how the engine factory develops. May be better, the next T-Roc based on the Golf 8 might be made here depending on how the economy fares.

Haval


They will start although delayed. They could get creative and ask GM to produce the cars as a precursor to the takeover being cleared but GM will never make its mind up about this.

MG



These wily folks may leverage the British connection to route investment. Expect them to use Ford's Sanand plant leading to an eventual takeover. More variants of the Hector with AWD, a bikini etc. might appear.

The HS might be announced.

Jaguar – Land Rover




The Defender will keep dealers happy…and busy. The I-Pace will attract a few niche buyers.

Porsche

Will manage somehow. The Taycan might get launched but Porsche will be slow and soft-pedal for a while


Tesla



Will soft launch but expect Tesla employees to be lurking around supermarkets and around the Golden Quadrilateral and other important highways planning out its supercharger network.

Toyota




Will continue to feed themselves with Marutis and their factories with Innovas. Expect the RAV-4 hybrid or a plain ICE version to take over from the Corolla


Honda



Can't expect much – It will become the new Nissan. City hatch might come in to attack the i20. That’s about it. If they are smart, they could reconsider contract assembly of Accords and CRV's elsewhere, there is plenty of capacity available elsewhere, but Honda are aloof and never ask other manufacturers for help


Skoda



They might be the Kia for 2021.The Vision-IN should really bring in the pent up Vento/Rapid replacement market. Things will look up for Skoda. Expect another batch of Karoq's to be imported.

The Octavia will see decent volumes as it will be virtually the only player. The tech inside will bring in more buyers.

The petrol only option will send that old milk van, the Kodiaq, into oblivion.

Tata



They will bloom - not unicorn style, the Altroz shows what they can do, the forthcoming turbo engine will add more pizzaz. The Harrier will sell moderately unless Tata really reassure buyers that beta testing stays within the factory. Tata will be conservative in model launches and focus on being bug free. Thank god the Serum Institute is located in the same town.

[ajmat]

Other Trends (some are a bit of a wish list)

Diesel Policy

Move from banning to usage restrictions. Expect BSVi only in urban areas from 2025 unless you pay higher cess

Exits

Haval might walk out before they walked in if the impasse continues


Sell outs

• Mahindra Electric - Beyond a Logan, nothing happened - might get sold on perhaps to a commercial vehicle manufacturer
• Fords Sanand Factory
• Hindustan Motors Chennai factory, Stellantis will mean this CK Birla partnership will have a limited life and a "conscious uncoupling" might follow. PSA are cost killers
• Pininfarina finds Ssyanyong are no hope for a redesign and close shop

Electric Charging Points

• It will be Tesla vs the rest - expect Tata Power to lead this foray unless one of India's most favoured fat men decide to snatch a piece of the action.

Tyre Imports

• The government will see reason but will no longer ban but might levy tariffs depending on origin

Car Distribution

• Currently, regional in nature, this will begin to get consolidated into national players.

Secondhand Market

• This will continue to be distorted unless interstate migration of cars happens

State Controlled Registration

• Expect to see a plan for central control of car registration, taxation and fitness. That is assuming the government decides to focus on actually governing. States will seek revenue from allocation, local sales tax and fuel surcharges.

Retirement and Regulation of Old Cars

• Plans for these to be usage and fitness based. Older cars will need to be used on a limited basis or during non peak hours
• Fitness Regimen will be strict for cars below 30 years

These are what I can think of so far. Am sure there is plenty more for discussion.

Now to open the floor and see what other BHP'ians predict/speculate!

[moralfibre]

Great thread Ajit. Thinking on what Indian manufacturers could do:

Ford

The Ecosport has been on the shelf with Maruti's trademark facelift playbook for far too long. Although VFM and upgraded, it is slowly losing its sheen. Ford might have to revive its folio or even packup and leave given their "hume shaadi nahi karni" (don't wish to marry) press release with Mahindra.

Mahindra

Everyone sees a paradigm shift towards SUVs. Don't remember recommending a sedan or a hatchback to anyone in 2019 or 2020. Mahindra had successfully tripped Tata motors but the latter has come out stronger with their offerings. Mahindra's only saving grace maybe the Thar for the year but it stands grossly overpriced. That won't stop aspirational buyers from saving Mahindra's back as their global alliances continue to crack and bleed.

The XUV 300 and 500 cousins could be their only other chance.


Maruti

Lack of Fiat multijets in their offerings doesn't seem to have dented their sales charts as I would have thought. They continue to lead the market and will do so. Surprising to see no hybrid / EV initiatives from them despite government subsidies that they favour a lot.

Hyundai

Not much to assess.

Kia

The sheer number of cars on the road makes them have a winner on hands. No amount of negative publicity will dent this. I believe they have a masterstroke with their focus. Already at # 4 in sales, their 4th product will surely take them past Tata this year.

Audi, BMW or Mercedes

Don't track this but I'd be surprised if Indians take any liking towards BMW's hideous designs. Audi has been making feeble attempts to revive like the one with their Q2 launch but will barely make any dent. They had 4 people for the launch function in Pune. Mercedes will triumph.

Renault Nissan

I had recommended a Sunny to a friend 9 years ago. He called me last week in distress asking for aftermarket support for this car. Dealers have nearly shutdown. The Magnite could get them a little more traction as may the Triber to Renault.

I believe Renault and Nissan's focus for India is akin to Fiat's. Their parent's divorce decree leaves no inheritence to their Indian kids.

Volkswagen

The Polo and Vento are nearly a decade old. Same pigs different lipsticks and a new pacemaker every few years. Nothing else moved much from their folio. Surprising to see no competitive SUVs in the 10-20L compact SUV segment

Toyota and Honda

Will continue to play to their strengths. Honda seems to be struggling again. I don't even track what they offer. Last I saw a Honda City on the highway, I was confused if it was a full size sedan or a compact one. Toyota will dispatch Innovas and Fortuners. Their rebadged Suzuki offerings may continue to be tatkal reservations for aspiring Maruti owners.

Tata

Looks like their revival plans have worked. But they are saddled in debt. Stock price seems to be rising but on the ground their workforce is heavily stressed. Overall seems to be in the right direction aeshetically and strategically. Let's hope their bank balance and parent company's lawsuits end sooner to revive their fortunes. I would love to have the Gravitas in my garage.

[ajmat]

Moving it to The Indian Car Scene

[Carpainter]

Some new launches that are expected-

New Octavia from Skoda and I expect it'll do better than ever before because there is no Corolla or Civic to give competition. Hope Skoda can sort out its aftersales to embrace more customers.

VW might bring a new Vento and Polo. Although it could well be not the new gen and merely a sticker job again.

Tata Gravitas will come and hopefully this time without all the niggles.

New Scorpio and Xuv500 will give Mahindra some momentum.

Big talking point will be Ford this year. After breaking up with Mahindra whether they stay single and concentrate on their own business or pack up and leave is a big question. They might get into a new relationship who knows.

Less said about Honda and Toyota the better. Two experienced Japanese manufacturers in the market look like they have lost their way. No plan of new launches except cosmetic upgrade on Fortuner to increase price. 2021 don't look good for them.

MG might drive in ZS petrol and looking at Indians love for gizmos, it might do well.

Renault Nissan will be looking at Magnite response but they need the new gen Duster.

Kia might roll in Sorento for Fortuner money and if Hyundai become aggressive, they might bring the new gen Tucson this year end.

[saisree]

Honda-
Would like to see Honda bring in HR-V and a Jazz replacement probably the City hatch both Petrol and Diesel versions in 1.5 ltr tunes along with Turbo Petrols.
Peugot-
Like to see Peugot’s version of our Ambassador.

[mudhasir]

In 2021, I expect Honda to slip down further while Hyundai, Kia, Tata and Mahindra will gradually increase their market share at the expense of Maruti. A lot of focus/ad campaigns is expected be on safety front (Tata will lead this) and this will probably dent Maruti more and more.

I guess this year and next year will show us more enhanced presence of Skoda and Volkswagon considering their lineup (primarily), build quality and driving dynamics. They will be able to better consolidate in 2022 if they could reintroduce Diesel engines. Most of the Skoda cars (Octavia, Superb, Karoq, Kodiaq) are premium cars and presence of Diesel engines at these price points will really improve sales.

On top 3 Germans, Audi desperately should focus on few things
1. Stop taking Indian market for granted/shrug off their laziness and start bringing global versions sooner to India. Most of their products available last year in India were very outdated.
2. Find a way to bring Diesel engines to India asap.
3. Undercut their competitors (5-10%) for next 2 years at least to regain their market share

A wishful thought - I wish Volvo to grow its presence more in India through sales and their dealership as I personally love their quality, design and focus on safety. I will be happy to see them get more recognition for this

[fhdowntheline]

Originally Posted by ajmat

[*]Honda chopped off its nose. [*]Nissan is slowly regrowing its limbs[*]Kia broke in to the market despite breaking down


Maruti

Will continue to wallow in its mediocrity.

Kia

While not attending to warranty costs, Kia will continue blitzing with new products.


FCA

Small spark with the Compass refresh – I really cannot expect much from this engine manufacturer who make a few cars on the side.

Audi

Yawn, the Q3 will come in time for yummy mummies to replace theirs.

LOL! More than the predictions themselves, I was really amused by the satire in them. Some of the gems that I loved are quoted above. The Audi one really takes the cake. One can almost visualize these Q3 customers, fawning over their recalcitrant kids in the backseat.

[DicKy]

Audi - Yawn...bring back the diesels...

BMW - Can't tell. Indians would either grab them for the bling or shun them for the ugliness, most probably the former will happen.

Citroen - Comfortable ride. That's all I can see and quirky styling. The C5 aircross is just a brand builder.
Waiting for the affordable models.

Ford - Just a couple of crossover/SUVs is all that you need, Ford. It is product stagnation, nothing else.
Bring the XUV500 counterpart and a new model above the Ecosport. Better bring the next gen Ecosport.
Don't abandon the market or sellout to the chinese.

Honda - Can't tell anything. They are again clueless. No crossovers in the horizon, they should bring the City hatch with the full hybrid or atleast give the City a hybrid version.

Hyundai - Current lineup feels fresh enough. Can't think of anything else they could do. Maybe try to bring a RHD Palisade using the 2500 quota?. Or introduce the Genesis brand?

Isuzu - Bring BS6 versions of Dmax and MUX. What else? Wonder where the RU30 MPV project went.

Kia - Bring an EV to the market?
What else to expect? They said they are not interested in either hatches or sedans. Maybe use the 2500 quota for the Stinger.

Maruti - Except for the Jimny everything else screams mediocrity.
Still with the next gen Alto and Celerio lined up, they will be busy again. Not to say, shamelessly will bring diesels back. Sales will again go up.
Waiting to see the ace up their sleeves. The Toyota collab Creta rival.

Mahindra - The XUV500 and Scorpio will bring in the moolah. No doubt on that. Though unless they bring a model below the XUV300 or reposition XUV300 itself, they won't be seeing much of volumes.

Mercedes Benz - Continue to sell strong.

Nissan - With the pricing and the new safety ratings, there shouldn't be much against the Magnite. The stay here or pack up model for Nissan.

Renault - Now more a budget brand than Maruti, the Kiger is going to be a smash hit for Renault.

Skoda The VisionIN is going to be a hit, but the larger Skodas really need the diesel back.

Tata - Except for the HBX and Gravitas, looks to be a quiet year for Tata. Only new variants of existing models and continuous improvements.
Just keep working on new engines, TML. Would need them for the next wave of new models coming from 2022.

The HBX would be a smash hit for Tata, and Tata would do well to launch EV versions of the Altroz and HBX.
Don't get far-sighted and neglect ICE development. Also take care of QC and A.S.S

Toyota - Facelifts of cash cows and Marutis. What else for the global giant.
Can't even use the 2500 import quota properly.
Not much hope for the Maruti collab Creta rival unless it has a diesel or hybrid option.

Volkswagen - Launch a couple of T**** crossovers and some imports via the 2500 quota maybe?

[ABHI_1512]

If there is one company which has got speculation written all over it right now- it has to be FORD. I can only wish right now to see some proactive action from Ford, now that their sudden adventure with Mahindra is over and done with.

Some good models in the market and some refreshes of the existing models is what every one who loves Ford would want them to do and try to bring their A-game to our country. That two new models are in advanced stage of planning is we all know and if someone really wants to make a mark, holding horses is not the strategy Ford should be following unless they want give up on us !!

Twenty years in India and Ford is yet to get the correct grasp of the market. They had the mover advantage with the first generation Figo and later Ecosport and yet couldn’t work on the momentum they got. 2021 will be the make or break for Ford in India and I really want to believe that they will come out with flying colours.


One more thing is that it’s about time Volkswagen and Jeep start to think and bring some newer models to expand their product portfolio. Can’t predict but I would really want them to stay relevant and not go into oblivion in the coming years !!

P.S- Speculations regarding Ford is purely coincidental and has nothing to do with reality at this moment. I am anyways an eternal optimist

[deep_bang]

Wagon R ev for Maruti is a very important car. Although may not be a big part of the sales, it's an important part that drives the future. The entire electric car platform will be a very interesting space in 2021. All of them are tetsing waters - Tata more than the rest.
For the first time, Tata has an ace up their sleeve compared to Maruti. Mahindra could have but did not have the will to do anything with focus.

I wish and hope Tata becomes a pioneer in the EV space. That's my wish.

[volkman10]

I believe 2021 will belong to the Škoda Auto Volkswagen India group. It will be a break-make situation, with promising launches go look forward to.

1. Skoda Vision IN (KLIQ/KOSMIQ?)
- A well rounded feature rich SUV with multiple engines an Power-trains
- Starting at a sub ₹ 10 lakh range and priced lower in variant to variant when compared to the reigning competitor.

2. VW - Taigun
- Likely to be priced above its sibling but need to see the differentiating factor for the price difference

3. VW -Sedan ( Premium Segment, above Vento)
- Interesting launch, as the segment is not known to draw in numbers. Can the group get the volumes that it is expecting?
- Would it launch the performance version ?( Like Virtus GTS)

4. Skoda -Premium Sedan
- Same as the VW sedan, but to be priced lower.


All major auto makers is not expected to have any major launches as the same will be saved for the 2022 Auto Expo.

[Nikhildrao]

Maruti - no comments and not interested

Toyota - bring the venza?

Kia - manufacturing of the Teluride and import stinger for brand building. The new MPV will do wonders

Honda - troubled waters for another 2 years at least.

Hyundai - doing great, hope they import the veloster N or genesis cars for brand building

Ford - what are they waiting for !!! Launch the ecosport replacement already!!!

Jeep - one word "Renegade"

Renault - open dealerships in teir-2/3 cities to increase sales of the kwid and triber. Kiger will sell 5-6k units a month when launched.

Nissan - Magnite will pull them up for another couple of years, hope they utilize their time to bring in models between 10-15 lakh and not above

Citroen - will sell good initially but become niche and esoteric like Skoda when the sheen rubs off