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Old 11th October 2021, 11:08   #16
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Default Re: September 2021 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

On the brighter side, Its good to see the premium and luxury brands like Lambo, Porsche and even the German Trio of Bmw, audi and Benz doing better compared to last year.
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Old 11th October 2021, 11:43   #17
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Default Re: September 2021 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

The most intriguing takeaway for me is the fact that 5 of the top-10 sellers in Sept 2021 were non-MSIL! When was the last time this happened?

Now, this could well be attributed to the impact of semiconductor crisis being faced by MSIL but then it should be a generic impediment across the industry. If it is an indication of things to come, and people have finally started looking beyond "Marutti", then it is a welcome change indeed!

I also happened to compare a few key metric from Sept 2021 analysis to almost a decade back, from our very own forum. Very, very interesting indeed - see for yourself:

Sales distribution by body style



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Sales distribution by manufacturer origin



September 2021 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis-by_manuf.jpg

Last edited by Aditya : 14th October 2021 at 18:32. Reason: As requested
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Old 11th October 2021, 11:54   #18
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Default Re: September 2021 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Against the backdrop of majority cars getting affected in this forgettable month, came across 3 stand-out performances:-
  • Seltos toppling over Creta
  • Ertiga/XL6 shooting up like a rocket but Swift and Brezza seeing the hardest fall in their segments
  • Harrier seeing a upward shift vs the Alcazar and also the XUV5oo (7oo coming in)
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Old 11th October 2021, 12:21   #19
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Default Re: September 2021 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Semiconductor shortage is very evident, OEMs are making whatever they can at the moment rather that what has demand.

The massive order backlog means discounts too are very unlikely, another festival season down the drain for the industry as well as the customer.
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Old 12th October 2021, 10:11   #20
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Default Re: September 2021 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Wondering why semiconductor shortage is only impacting vehicles and not other industries like mobiles and computers which rely much more heavily on them. Due to heavy demand and less supply the prices of cars are just going over the roof. Natural resources do not become scarce all of a sudden. It seems there is more to this shortage specially with the timing of COVID which anyways has a negative sentiment on the overall industry.
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Old 12th October 2021, 10:34   #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Maverick Avi View Post
Wondering why semiconductor shortage is only impacting vehicles and not other industries like mobiles and computers which rely much more heavily on them. Due to heavy demand and less supply the prices of cars are just going over the roof. Natural resources do not become scarce all of a sudden. It seems there is more to this shortage specially with the timing of COVID which anyways has a negative sentiment on the overall industry.
Try ordering custom made furniture, you`ll get the same answer. Wood is not available, manpower is scarce, they have not returned from their home town etc. There is shortage everywhere man.

This is from EEPC India as of a week ago. Whoever has a working semi conductor supply chain is able to dispatch units to the dealers. MS, Hyundai, Mahindra & KIA are the hardest hit.

With festive season orders in October this backlog will only get worse.

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Old 12th October 2021, 10:37   #22
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Default Re: September 2021 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Quote:
Originally Posted by Maverick Avi View Post
Wondering why semiconductor shortage is only impacting vehicles and not other industries like mobiles and computers which rely much more heavily on them
Of course it does, just that we're auto focused community the visibility is apparent. Link1 & Link2

Son was tracking on a specific graphic card starting this year, waiting specifically for the price to come down. Since July or so (not sure since when) he was disappointed that the price went up & postponed the purchase.
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Old 12th October 2021, 10:53   #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Maverick Avi View Post
Wondering why semiconductor shortage is only impacting vehicles and not other industries like mobiles and computers which rely much more heavily on them.
Most of the auto manufacturers cancelled their orders when the pandemic hit and the semi fabs dedicated that extra capacity towards other products. Once demand for cars came back, the auto makers rushed in with orders but the semi fabs were now booked on those nodes so supply went down and price went up. This is Just-In-Time supply chain management coming back to bite these auto makers.

Here is what the TSMC chairman has to say:
Quote:
He said the reasons of the current global chip shortage were more to do with imbalances and uncertainty in the supply chain and not the lack of capacity itself.

He pointed out three main causes of the global chip crunch.
-The Covid-19 effect on the semiconductor production
-the unpredictability and uncertainties due to the US-China trade war and
-the accelerated digital transformation have been brought about by the pandemic.
Source

Last edited by Electromotive : 12th October 2021 at 10:59.
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Old 12th October 2021, 11:51   #24
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Default Re: September 2021 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosfactor View Post
Try ordering custom made furniture, you`ll get the same answer. Wood is not available, manpower is scarce, they have not returned from their home town etc. There is shortage everywhere man.

This is from EEPC India as of a week ago. Whoever has a working semi conductor supply chain is able to dispatch units to the dealers. MS, Hyundai, Mahindra & KIA are the hardest hit.

With festive season orders in October this backlog will only get worse.

Attachment 2218081
The more masses gets educated and connected, the more these masses are getting insecure about life in general and so resulting in knee-jerk reactions on everything from the politicians, policy makers, administrators and the masses themselves.
The current economic crisis is a result of these knee-jerk reactions of past few years.
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Old 12th October 2021, 13:28   #25
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Default Re: September 2021 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

The Swift, Dzire & Vitara seems to be the hardest hit. The Swift probably never saw numbers this low ever since it was launched (lockdown period aside). Perhaps MS is prioritizing the baleno over the swift due to higher margins?
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Old 12th October 2021, 13:34   #26
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Default Re: September 2021 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

I really feel very sad to look at D2 segment. The most value for money SUV - Endeavor was back-stabbed by Ford withdrawal from India. Clearly it had the potential to add 1000-1500 units a month.

Now, Toyota will not have any competition in this segment whatsoever and I will not be surprised if Fortuner costs above 75 Lakhs by 2025.
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Old 12th October 2021, 14:32   #27
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Default Re: September 2021 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Thanks for the analysis. I have one clarification regarding the segment mentioned in the analysis. All the C-SUVS ( <4m) Nexon, Brezza, Sonet, venue etc are in C1 in Sep-2021 sales table . But the same C-SUVS were included in C2 segment with Creta,Seltos etc. in Aug-2021.

https://www.team-bhp.com/forum/india...-analysis.html (August 2021 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis)
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Old 12th October 2021, 15:52   #28
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Default Re: September 2021 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

With these wait times the second hand market should be booming.
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Old 12th October 2021, 18:44   #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Maverick Avi View Post
Wondering why semiconductor shortage is only impacting vehicles and not other industries like mobiles and computers which rely much more heavily on them.
I am not in the semiconductor industry (transport/ logistic industry). My research has found the following:-

1. Cars have started using large amounts of tech in mass market very recently and it is increasing at an exponential rate. (Thank you Tesla)

2. For safety reasons, cars use old but tried and tested tech. (Mobile not working = wife very irritated. Car tech fails = loss of life.)

3. Semiconductor plants do not want to invest in infrastructure to make old chips (newer ones are also cheaper to make). So the increase in demand by automakers is not matched by increased in production facilities by chipmakers.

4. Global supply chain - As I am form the industry : I have very different opinion and maybe a discussion for another time/ thread.
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Old 12th October 2021, 21:46   #30
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Default Re: September 2021 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Ford did zero dispatches in September, means they were sitting on zero inventory by August end itself. This indicates people in Ford India including dealers were clearly aware of what was going to come in September.
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