[PrasannaDhana]

Major reasons for diesels not being preferred by many buyers

1. Difference between diesel and petrol prices is less than 4 rupees per liter. Meanwhile the premium on diesel variant over petrol variant of the same car hasn't reduced at all. Example- Both Hyundai i20 and Tata Altroz have a staggering 2 lakhs difference between petrol and diesel variants!

2. Considering point 1, majority people cannot justify additonal initial expenditure on a diesel car. Because, 80% of hatchback/sedan users don't use them for more than 2000 km a month. People like me, who use the car more, say 3000+ km will actually see 5k to 7k rupees savings every month on fuel, given the higher fuel efficiency of turbo diesels. So the initial extra expenditure on a diesel variant will be broken even by year 3.

7 seater SUVs, MPVs definitely are better running on diesel than on thirsty petrols.

[SirJeepsALot]

As a diehard diesel fan, I'm sad to see such low numbers but can't say that I am surprised as the prices of petrol and diesel are almost similar now. However, one instance where diesel truly shines is when paired with an Automatic Transmission. Petrol ATs are gas guzzlers and return a mere 5-6 kmpl when driven in the city whereas my Skoda Rapid TDi DSG returns an upward of 15kmpl in the city and around 22kmpl on the highways which is simply no match for a Petrol AT.
That said, Petrol Hybrids seem like a natural and sensible replacement for Diesel ATs as the efficiency as well as the price should be comparable to that of a Diesel AT. Eagerly waiting for City Hybrid as a replacement for my Rapid, provided Honda prices it sensibly.

[Rocketscience]

Never been a fan of anything or anyone in my life, I like things maybe on a case to case basis and am not easily impressed at all but Diesels are something i'am unashamedly a huge fan of.

I have always bought and driven turbo diesels primarily because they have always been the faster and more fun to drive modern turbo charged engines in a car's range of engines, secondary huge benefits were better spread of usable power which you can use everyday and outstanding mileage which you don't have to think twice about even driving enthusiastically, in this exact order.

It rather annoys me about that buying cost vs running kilometres and cost of fuel narrowing calculations and debates almost everywhere including team bhp as diesels are much more than just their cheap running cost, people pay a lakh more for sunroof and touchscreen audio systems so to pay more for the aforementioned benefits is a no brainer and lower running cost is just one of the side effects and not the primary reason.

For example just drive the previous gen Creta NA petrol and Diesel back to back and come and tell me why you will buy the petrol just because your running is not that high.

Anyways like we have reached almost peak NA petrol in the 90s, we have reached the peak diesel now, electrics appear to be the future, although they are not ready today, but that peak torque at 0 rpm does excite me.

[Thilak29]

Originally Posted by Axe77

Could you please explain this a bit more?

There are strong proposals in the works to make Real-Time Emission Monitoring System (RTEMS) mandatory for all cars from 2023 onwards. The basic concept of RTEMS is that there is a huge difference between testing conditions in certifying labs like ARAI and field conditions. Carmakers have been getting away with this with a lower level of emission controls settings at the controlled conditions in ARAI. (Remember Volkswagen scandal!).
It is learnt that various tests conducted in Indian roads on random sampling which has shown shocking results that most of the top-selling cars exceed the emissions by 3-6 times on HC +NOX emissions. To take care of this serious issue, RTEMS will be a mandatory accessory for diesel cars. This RTEMS device is a sensor-based automatic data capturing system which monitors emissions on a real-time basis and feeds into a central computer, so Government agencies can have access to the emission data any time using Artificial Intelligence and the rogue cars can be traced.

The cost implications of fitting this device in diesel cars are estimated to be around 2 lacs per car, so effectively diesel cars would be that much more expensive than petrol (since in petrol cars it is relatively easy to control emissions). We will see a significant drop in the diesel cars market post-2023, assuming the Government proposal to make RTEMS mandatory for all cars goes through. Due to the technology limitation and cost implication, the carmakers would find it difficult to meet the price expectation of customers. Hence, they will have little but to discontinue the production of diesel cars.

[DRIVE_ADDICT]

This is called herd mentality, people just going by what they heard. Many just compare the per liter cost of Petrol and Diesel and going for petrol, without bringing in the fuel efficiency factor b/w the two, also with a presumption that Petrol's are easier to maintain in long run, which i believe is no longer valid when you bring in the complex Turbo petrols.

Im expecting bunch of Big size, turbo petrol cars will come into pre-owned market once the owners realizes the running cost. Just look at XUV 700 bookings, Petrol has more booking over Diesel and for sure that big turbo petrol will never cross 2 digit efficiency even if you feather the A pedal.

On the other side, due to unavailability of Diesel in entry level segments + the DPF issues, makes the statistics now shows lesser favor towards Diesel.

If Maruti comes back with one Diesel engine into their portfolios, I believe we will see the statistic changes immediately.

I may be wrong, but i felt Ford should have tied up with Maruti instead of Mahindra, to supply their 1.5 BS6 Diesel engine. I see this as a missed opportunity from both the sides.

[anb]

Originally Posted by ninjatalli

+

The other main factor (for reduction of diesel sales) is the obvious reduction in differences in petrol-diesel prices. Back in 2012-13, the differences would be atleast ~25Rs (with petrol nearly 30% - 50% higher than diesel). Currently that difference has come down considerably to just about ~12% (in cities like Chennai the difference is less than 5%). Price differences between petrol and diesel car options haven't reduced in similar ratios, so why would one really opt for diesel if the petrol option is good enough! If today I had to purchase a brand new car, there would be hardly any reason for me to opt for a diesel engine over a petrol option.

Every litre of fuel you save now has more value due to high petrol and diesel prices. So fuel efficiency is even more important now. So this point neutralizes the effect of reduction in difference of petrol and diesel prices. Lets us assume that we are driving turbo diesel and a turbo petrol engine cars enthusiastically on a highway. As per my experience, the turbo petrol will give a FE around 10 kmpl and diesel around 15 kmpl.

Cost/km as per 2012 fuel price.


Petrol price in 2012- Rs.70
Cost/km =70/10= Rs. 7/km

Diesel price in 2012- Rs.45
Cost/km= 45/15= Rs. 3/km

Difference in cost/km of petrol and diesel= 7-3= Rs.4/km

Cost/Km in 2021

Petrol price- Rs.110
Cost/km = 110/10 = Rs.11/km

Diesel Price- Rs.102
Cost/km=102/15= Rs.6.8/km

Difference is cost/km = 11-6.8= Rs.4.2/km.


So the difference in fuel cost/km stays roughly the same.

[aayusht]

Originally Posted by shortbread

I still cannot fathom the logic of people buying petrol SUVs, especially automatics!

Paying Rs 15-20 in fuel costs alone for every km driven, or these machines are simply white elephants that will hardly be used on a regular basis. Even CNG prices will shoot through the roof soon. I cannot understand how this makes any sort of economic sense!

Thats true. However in general most SUVs are white elephants. Diesel SUVs have a slightly higher maintenance cost but have lower running cost. Those like Fortuner are expensive upfront.

However for those in Delhi NCR and with limited usage (on an average <8000-10000/year), a petrol vehicle makes the most sense, including for an SUV.
I had to drop Harrier from my consideration just because in NCR I cannot retain a diesel car for more than 10 years (petrol can be retained for 15 years). Finally I have recently booked a Jeep Compass Petrol AT with a real world mileage of around 8-10 km/l. I had also booked a Seltos and cancelled it based on less than desirable build quality and the insane waiting time. Its all about trade offs. A heavier more solid car may likely have poorer fuel efficiency (though not necessary)


To provide a little more context: my in-laws had a Diesel VW Vento until recently. In the 9th year of ownership (in 2021), we had a lot of trouble selling the car in Delhi despite it being in great condition. People were low balling the prices. However we ended up selling the car through an online platform and got almost double of what most people in Delhi were offering. The car was finally purchased by an army officer station in Karnataka or Tamil Nadu (I cant remember).

Lesson learnt - if you maintain your cars and retain them for longer, Petrol makes sense if you are in Delhi NCR including for SUVs. (though I can't be certain if it would be perfect economic sense, but an emotional one - most likely yes).

[vivekgk]

I think that a big reason for the shift to diesel is due to availability, or rather the lack thereof, of diesel options, and the fact that petrol engines are becoming more efficient and powerful.

Another big factor in the aam janta being forced to wean off diesel was due to the withdrawal of support from the biggest aam janta brand, MSIL. Maruti diesel cars were reliable, efficient and affordable, and was backed by their wise service network. Which is why even their discontinued diesel cars still enjoy good resale values. When the biggest carmaker in the country runs a propaganda campaign urging their herd to switch from diesel, it's a call that the aam janta herd cannot ignore.

Most of the other small car makers also followed suit and reduced their diesel options. Hyundai is still offering their Nios and Aura with diesel options for now, but the writing on the wall is clear. With the increase in initial costs, and increased maintenance cost/time due to DPF/Adblue issues, diesel doesn't make sense unless you stand to gain a lot from the FE difference.

Let's take the case of the Grand i10 Nios. The Magna variant of the car is available in Petrol and Diesel variants. The Diesel costs about a lakh more OTR. Assume the following.

Diesel Price 95.00
Petrol Price 106.00
Diesel Mileage 20.00
Petrol Mileage 16.00

Also assume that the car is financed at 7.5% for 5 years, in which case the EMI per lakhs comes to about Rs. 2000.

If your average running is 1000 km/month, your monthly savings over petrol would be Rs. 1937, which doesn't fully cover the extra EMI. If you cover 1550 kms monthly, only then would you save Rs. 3003 monthly, which gives you net savings of Rs. 1066 every month.

Of course, if you have a petrol car, you have the option of converting it to CNG or Ethanol if your running increases, which would increase your savings considerably for a lesser cost.

The picture changes drastically of you have a bigger car, especially a heavier SUV. But even then, it only starts to make sense if your EMI increase doesn't offset the fuel savings. Assume the following case for the XUV700, where the price difference between petrol and diesel is only Rs. 75000:

Kms/month 1000.00
Kms/year 12000.00
Diesel Price 95.00
Petrol Price 107.00
Diesel Mileage 12.00
Petrol Mileage 8.00
Litres of Petrol 125.00
Litres of Diesel 83.33
Monthly Expenses Petrol 13375.00
Monthly Expenses Diesel 7916.67
Monthly Savings 5458.33
Yearly Savings 65500.00

You can see that the monthly saving easily make up the difference in EMI when the mileage figures drop, even for very low running. Even if the diesel and petrol prices are equalised at say, Rs. 120 in future, here's how the expenses will look like, as the FE advantage remains the same.

Kms/month 1000.00
Kms/year 12000.00
Diesel Price 120.00
Petrol Price 120.00
Diesel Mileage 12.00
Petrol Mileage 8.00
Litres of Petrol 125.00
Litres of Diesel 83.33
Monthly Expenses Petrol 15000.00
Monthly Expenses Diesel 10000.00
Monthly Savings 5000.00
Yearly Savings 60000.00

Assume that you convert the car to CNG at a cost of Rs. 50000, at a time when CNG price is 80/Kg, and mileage drops by 1 kmpl.

Kms/month 1000.00
Kms/year 12000.00
CNG 80.00
Petrol Price 120.00
Diesel Mileage 7.00
Petrol Mileage 8.00
Litres of Petrol 125.00
Litres of CNG 142.86
Monthly Expenses Petrol 15000.00
Monthly Expenses CNG 11428.57
Monthly Savings 3571.43
Yearly Savings 42857.14


You can make up the difference in about a year and 2 months.

So, the point is that there is no universal choice, and you have to analyse your expected running and other factors such as loan EMI, interest rate, vehicle retention time etc, to arrive at a decision.

[Mafia]

Buying large petrol vehicles is a real pain in the pockets. Diesels are fast fading due to many compounding reasons, aided by high fuel costs in the country.
In the long term, today's pain is mostly tomorrow's gain. The next 10 years mark a big transition to EV's.

Manufacturers will see a lesser gain in launching new products in the IC segment. The Government sees this as the last decade of substantial fuel taxes.

Transitions on such a large scale are generally painful and chaotic. A whole lot of unintended consequences will be in play.

Manufacturers not launching new products is definitely one.

[Axe77]

Originally Posted by Thilak29

The cost implications of fitting this device in diesel cars are estimated to be around 2 lacs per car, so effectively diesel cars would be that much more expensive than petrol (since in petrol cars it is relatively easy to control emissions).
.
.

Due to the technology limitation and cost implication, the carmakers would find it difficult to meet the price expectation of customers.

Thanks for that super explanation. Ok this is encouraging to know in a sense, insofar as its a cost issue to some extent and not an impossibility issue.

Personally I think this could have the following distinct offshoots. My example of the car model below may be slightly off the mark but conceptually I think we could have these sort of outcomes:

1. Budget to mid budget range (think below 20L on road segment):

Makers will gravitate heavily towards petrol and to some extent mild hybrids etc. Diesels will wither away because the incremental cost of diesel compliance may get uneconomical.

Some cars like City may supplement their petrol offerings with a proper hybrid petrol (already in the reckoning I believe). Those who have the tech will also start offering EV variants - the likes of Tatas etc.

2. 20 - 40L sedans and crossovers:

Again, they may start gravitating more towards petrol or hybrid petrols. If I was in Hyundai's shoes, I'd get the next gen Tucson as petrol and proper hybrid petrol like in other markets and potentially ditch the diesel. Its not a hard core 4x4 as such and anything their diesel achieves is much better served with a sophisticated hybrid petrol.

3. The likes of Innova and Fortuner:

I'm confused on this one. I feel the Innova could actually experiment with hybrid petrol if they can mate the tech - not sure they have that option today.

For Fortuner, I feel they would continue with diesel, simply mark up the price by the cost of compliance and people will still pay up. The 50L Fortuner buyer would (I suspect) rather pay 2L more for the existing product than accept a petrol Fortuner. A Jeep Compass / Commander would I think simply pad the price and continue to offer both diesels and petrols (just my sense), like I expect for the Fortuner.

4. Luxury segment:

Again, a combination of the above. I think some will lean more heavily towards petrol cars (likes of VAG + Volvo, entirely) while some may simply pad on the compliance cost of the diesel and sell it at whatever the consequence.. I think they will also slowly trickle down EV alternatives to the more mainstream models of their line up. So perhaps post 2025 we will see a deeper trickling down of pure EV offerings unlike the entirely 1 cr + halo segment in which they're currently operating. I don't know what the timing inflection point would be since it will need some CKD punt to make the prices palatable.

As of date, I find even the Recharge XC40 a halo product if they bring it at 12 - 15L over the regular XC40 as is indicated.

[gururajrv]

When Maruti decided to pull the plugs on national Diesel engine of India that is our beloved 1.3 DDiS as we all know, which was powering even the smallest of their cars, it certainly left a crater in almost all segments across their portfolio - their diesel swift, Brezza, Baleno, Scross they all accounted for major sales from diesel models. If you compare it with 2012-13 data, the numbers would be even higher as Ritz was present which was positioned below Swift and it brought in good sales as well - Maruti commanded market share between 5-15L price category. Now that they’ve no diesel options, even cabbies are looking at Mahindra & Tata for diesels.

It explains why there’s a major change or shift in preference or rather I should call options.

[harry10]

I recently got Kia Sonet Diesel Automatic.

Calculation was simple -
Minimum monthly running of 2000km, yearly - 24000km.
FE in NCR- 15kmpl.
24000 /15 = 1600 litre diesel.
Price of diesel today - 96.
1600 * 96 = 153600 Rs diesel for one year.

Petrol automatic-
Running - 24000km per year.
FE in NCR- 10kmpl.
24000/10= 2400 litre petrol.
Price of petrol - 106
2400 * 106 = 254400 Rs per year.

Difference- 254400 - 153600 = 100800

So, roughly I will save 1Lac per year in fuel expense. Will keep it minimum for 7 years. So it's roughly a saving of 7 lac.

Also, price of-
Sonet HTX diesel auto - 13lac OTR.
Sonet HTX DCT - 12.50lac OTR.
Only a difference of 50k.

It was a no brainer to buy diesel.

I am quite hopeful by the time Sonet will be replaced our EV infrastructure will be firmly in place and I will transition into the EV segment. Did considered Nexon EV this time as well but for various reasons it was dropped.

[mayukh42]

Originally Posted by anb

Every litre of fuel you save now has more value due to high petrol and diesel prices.
...
difference in fuel cost/km stays roughly the same.

+1.

Fuel supplies globally will only diminish over time, and diesel is the more efficient fuel. Putting the focus on diesel will buy us more time while EV alternatives become more efficient.

As for emissions, Diesel has indeed come a long way to reduce them, at least with the latest standards. If cars are priced higher to factor in this R&D, that route might still be better for non-renewable fuel.

[pseudo_coder]

Customer preference hasn't changed much. What has is the availability. Maruti is not selling any diesel. Neither is Renault Nissan I believe.

Since maruti itself has 50% share, 18% market share of diesels means 18% of 50%, which is actually 36%. Then also see that a major car loving market - Delhi NCR - is almost avoiding diesels due to regulations. So the numbers are not surprising at all.

[BHPjunkie]

Interesting thread. As GTO mentioned that the overall diesel sales as a percentage has dropped due to unavailability. Segment and model specific diesel sales will still be higher and rightly mentioned by GTO, Creta diesel sales exceed petrol.

We were shopping for a diesel automatic last month. In sedans the only option you are left with is the Verna with the 4 speed auto. Coming to CSUVs the options we had were Nexon, Sonet, Creta and Seltos in the 20 lac bracket. The 2 CSUV from Skoda and VW stables have also dropped the diesel engines.

I am sure if MSIL had the S-Cross and Brezza's diesel counterparts on sale along with the petrol, the diesel would sell in far higher numbers than their own petrol. The 1.3 DDiS was a gem of an engine, it had decent performance and a great mileage too. Their own 1.5L got some great reviews.

We are lucky to still own now discontinued diesels viz. a 2014 Skoda Rapid Manul 1.6 done about 93k kms and a VW Ameo Highline Plus DSG bought in 2018 done about 23k kms. The torque surge is addictive and doesn't pinch the wallet with an aggressive right foot. We still manage to get 13kmpl in the city and 18-19 on the highway with the AC on 100% of the time from both vehicles. With diesel's discontinuing, I plan to keep both these vehicles at least till their 15 year age and enjoy the torque surge.