[Annibaddh]

Oh I thought I was the only one in this boat! My 2012 Vento TDI has been getting long in the tooth, what with a 170K on the odo. And I have been test driving cars for nearly 4 years now! But I just can't find anything worthwhile to replace my Vento. Nothing below 35L from the current lot comes close to the Vento in terms of a proper upgrade. Everything is either not safe (Hyundai), rebadging ordinary products (Toyota branded Marutis), third world versions of reasonable cars (VW, Hyundai-Kia). Even post the 35L mark - VW twins removed the diesel workhorse - and even the feel of the 2.0 TDI which was really incredible. Jeep's cars are decent, but the company is on deathbed. C5 was never meant to sell - even if it is an excellent product. Stellantis has no interest in that car. Camry is a near perfect product but I cannot come to compromise on quality of ICE, lack of CarPlay etc which are things that I will live with on an everyday basis (Why Toyota Why), and suddenly we are in 50L territory. And even then, hardly anything worthwhile!

Even after paying 5 times what I paid for the Vento, there's no complete product! Forget cheaper upgrades.

[car_guy1998]

Was supposed to replace our 2014 Honda City iDTEC this year, which was bought used in the year 2017 with an EV or a Petrol AT due to less usage after I moved to USA an year ago and also, it has run close to 2L Kms (1.89L Kms run till date).

But, due to economic reasons, had to retain this car instead. Since we had planned to retain the City at least for 2-3 years, I got the suspension overhauled, repainted the whole car in the year 2022 and got the timing kit replaced along with clutch overhaul and other things done recently. All were done at ASC itself since we couldn't find a proper FNG to do these things.

Also, since we have Hycross for other purposes, the City is barely used and driven these days and my mom, who is using the City in my absence, prefers to be chauffeured in the Hycross these days.

The replacement for City seems to be a tough thing for us since we love the rear seat space and comfort of this car to the core. As of today, the new Verna felt apt as an upgrade to my City in terms of rear seat comfort, performance and reliability and even a Creta would be a good upgrade from the City.

What's scaring me in retaining the City is the Honda's bleak future in India. If Honda doesn't launch any exciting vehicles, then they might have to go Ford way by exiting from Indian market.

But, still, there is an itch in letting go of our City due to its age and want more exciting car, which can match the City in terms rear seat space, dynamics and reliability.

If nothing works, will keep the City as a beater car and get a 3 door Thar AT if possible.

[MiamiBlue]

Originally Posted by RunSam

I bought a 2010 Civic in 2022 with around 75K~ on the odo. I've given it some TLC and carried out all the necessary replacements wear & tear wise, and I must say that it runs quite smoother than most modern cars. It is my daily driver, and is good to go for another 3-5 years with just basic maintenance. IMO, keeping our cars in good condition and driving them for as long as possible is not only financially beneficial, but also the most environmental friendly.

Attachment 2651327

Totally agree with you. I picked up a 2011 Jazz with 46k kms on odo last year. Done a major service costed 11k and car is ready to go. Done 9k kms in it so far and the car is performing flawlessly. As the 1.2 hatchback category didn't see any great changes since a long time, I don't miss a new car except some fancy screens which I don't mind.

[v1p3r]

Originally Posted by Karthik.guru

P.S. - happy to share links of articles and research papers about inequality and the poverty index in case anyone is interested !

Please do share these!

[Auto_guy_101]

The current macro environment makes me feel as a young car owner, I might visit this thread a few years down the line.

The car industry is in flex now with manufacturers confused between EVs, hybrids and ICEs and governments aren't helping either. While it's true that the customer is winning in some cases, I feel the Indian customer is also loosing. Just look at the following:

- My cousin in the US bought a 250k mile run pre-owned car for $700 for his use and such high mileage vehicles are not uncommon there. However, the Indian govt wants to ban vehicles older than 15 years. EU still has TDI engines but India hardly has any left, with newer ones facing just a 10 year life span.

- Other than an Innova or a Fortuner, there are hardly any common cars in India than might actually live upto 250k miles (4 lakh Kms), should someone manage to achieve it before the 15 year lifespan. While manufacturers do have vehicles capable of such mileage (RAV4, Octavia, many Honda's and Nissan's) , our road conditions and lack of these models or overpriced CBUs make them unavailable to most people, and overpriced to those who can afford them.

- Even if you buy a CKD or CBU from a non luxury brand, you'd end up getting the shorter end of the stick. Prime example here is the India spec x-trail, or the lack of an AWD superb even with a 60L sticker shock.

- Then we have the pricing. Just imagine - a Prius (hybrid) used to actually be on sale in India about a decade ago, but today, entry level India spec hybrids start at a whopping 20L, and they're a far cry from what a Prius is. These are new cars, while the used car Market being a function of inferior builds and shorter lifespan are also shot!

While lower sales figures sound like a boon for buyers, I feel the Indian car buyer would never have a win!

[RunSam]

Originally Posted by MiamiBlue

Totally agree with you. I picked up a 2011 Jazz with 46k kms on odo last year. Done a major service costed 11k and car is ready to go. Done 9k kms in it so far and the car is performing flawlessly. As the 1.2 hatchback category didn't see any great changes since a long time, I don't miss a new car except some fancy screens which I don't mind.

Your Jazz looks mint! I'm sure these will run forever with basic maintenance, as they are mechanically very simple and proven. As for fancy screens, I got a budget Blaupunkt HU with wired Android auto and Carplay, problem solved

[PrasannaDhana]

As a middle class buyer, I believe we should stop buying cars for a few years.

The automobile companies, our government and taxation, road infrastructure, city and town planning don't deserve the hefty amount of money that they drain from us.

Specially after BS6, the automobile prices have gone through the roof. For an example, I bought a top end diesel Altroz for 11.2 lakhs in 2021 October. The same car costs north of 14 lakhs now.

An innova Hycross hybrid touches 40 lakhs. Heck, any decent Compact SUV or crossover crosses 20 lakhs on road.

People should stop buying cars and let the automobile companies come back to their senses. Inflating the demand, exaggerating waiting periods and what not!! I feel the slowdown in Auto market is well deserved.

Government won't change. They will keep continuing breaking the backs of the middle class.

[SavoyWalrus]

Reliability has improved in the last two decades and people are keeping their cars for longer, with some old cars better than new when it comes to the driving experience.

I guess the salaried class is also worried about a potential recession, which seems to be brewing for the last six months.

Cars are also way too expensive for what they offer. Car manufacturers should trim down the features list and offer affordable cars. Not everyone wants a sunroof, ventilated seats, leather seats, auto wipers and headlamps. Can save so much more money. Car companies have become way to greedy and are only trying to sell top-end variants to help their bottom line.

[DigitalOne]

Originally Posted by Karthik.guru

I love this topic!
....who also happens to work in the development and public policy sector, I have a lot to say!

...

Good post but I am surprised that you have not covered the biggest macro-economic factor that influences auto sales - Interest Rates.

First, in any economy, high growth leads to higher inflation (too much money chases too few goods). To bring down inflation, central banks (e.g. RBI) increases interest rates. Rising interest rates slows down growth, which brings down inflation. If growth slows down too much, central banks bring down interest rates to stimulate growth. And the cycle goes on.

Additionally, if there are major economic shocks (Dotcom bust in 2001, Global Financial crisis 2008, Covid pandemic 2020-21), central banks everywhere bring down interest rates rapidly to keep things cheaper and stimulate growth. But unfortunately, this brings in inflation and you see the cycle playing out.

To prove this, let me show you three charts:

First, the RBI interest rates over last 2 decades:



I have marked the 3 major economic shocks and the drastic reduction in interest rates that happened.

Below charts are sourced from the fantastic "2023 Auto Sales Analysis" thread.







The correlation of low interest rates with high growth in auto sales is very easy to see. For example, the world was coming out of the greatest financial crisis in 2009-10-11, yet auto sales zoomed because of low interest rates. Same for 2018 or 2022-23.

This economic cycle is well-known and well understood. Currently, we are in the high interest rate-slowing growth rate phase. We will have low or negative growth in 2024 and 2025. RBI is expected to reduce rates over the next 1-1.5 years, which will restart the growth cycle by 2026-27.

Pro-tip: If you are planning to buy a car by cash, now is the best time to do it. If you are planning to buy it on EMI, plan it late next year or early 2026. But again, more people buying it in 2026 will make the manufacturers increase the prices .

OT, contrary to popular belief, politicians everywhere know this. Follow the US presidential elections debate and you will see that politicians are critical of their central bank that interest rates are not being brought down to simulate growth.

P.S. - happy to share links of articles and research papers about inequality and the poverty index in case anyone is interested !

OT for this thread, poverty reduction and inequality are not mutually exclusive. Poverty reduction is an absolute measure. Inequality is a relative measure. A whole population can get out of poverty yet if some part of the population is growing at a faster rate than others, there will be growing inequality. Everybody being equally poor means there is no inequality. For poorer countries, it is necessary to focus on poverty reduction first. Inequality is a secondary goal.

[jetsetgo08]

I don't know if my post is relevant to this thread. But, I have been following Team-bhp ownership reviews since 2007.
Gone are the days where the ownership reviews are mostly of humble Alto's, Santro's, Zen's and Wagon R's.
Just a glance at the ownership reviews in our forum, majority of the reviews are for cars costing above 10L, which either suggests that the income, spending curve, or both have shifted vastly.

[saket77]

Originally Posted by jetsetgo08

I don't know if my post is relevant to this thread. But, I have been following Team-bhp ownership reviews since 2007.
Gone are the days where the ownership reviews are mostly of humble Alto's, Santro's, Zen's and Wagon R's.
Just a glance at the ownership reviews in our forum, majority of the reviews are for cars costing above 10L, which either suggests that the income, spending curve, or both have shifted vastly.

Definitely people on an average have moved up the ladder. Also, many more options are now available compared to a couple of decades back, so choice factor along with higher income also comes to play. Previously even people with black money would only buy a Matui 1000 at max because this is what was offered at best

Also, even back then cars were overpriced just like now For eg. we bought our Maruti Zen in 2002 for about 4L. Adjusted for inflation @6%, present value of this money would be Rs. 14.5L today! For this money, one can get a much bigger and feature rich cars today!!

[somersault]

Originally Posted by DigitalOne

...

Good post but I am surprised that you have not covered the biggest macro-economic factor that influences auto sales - Interest Rates.

Pro-tip: If you are planning to buy a car by cash, now is the best time to do it. If you are planning to buy it on EMI, plan it late next year or early 2026. .

I beg to differ on this front. My first car was purchased in 2006, EMI interest rate was 8%, second car was purchased in 2014, the interest rate was 8.1% and last month I purchased my third car with interest rate of 8.35% fixed. The car interest rate has remained almost steady.

Originally Posted by jetsetgo08

Just a glance at the ownership reviews in our forum, majority of the reviews are for cars costing above 10L, which either suggests that the income, spending curve, or both have shifted vastly.

This is probably because, the membership of Team-BHP is a restricted item. Curated members are almost from a good income group, good education background (English Proficiency) and biased towards certain features of car power/ torque and safety aspects, unlike normal people.

[ritedhawan]

Originally Posted by PrasannaDhana

As a middle class buyer, I believe we should stop buying cars for a few years.

The automobile companies, our government and taxation, road infrastructure, city and town planning don't deserve the hefty amount of money that they drain from us.

Specially after BS6, ...
Government won't change. They will keep continuing breaking the backs of the middle class.

Or buy second hands cars. Nevertheless, even in the second hand market the prices of the cars being offered are inflated. But, for specimen which are in numbers and one is willing to put the big ones on the table. One can get room for negotiation and then you get the car the same day. Yes, one needs to have knowledge of driving cars in order to seperate the good specimens from the ones which are merely masking thier faults. A superficial knowledge of what goes under the hood is a bonus. My family , my brothers family, and my father are well aware of the inflated prices of the new cars and wont bother looking at it, we have been buying second hand cars for so long , I guess the last time a new car was bought by my father was in 2018.

The car manufacturers are inundated with unsold cars, the dealers are unable to sell, as the festive season approaches one would expect heavy discounts so that dealers start selling and manufacturers get the unsold stock off thier back. In the unlikely case of the unfeasibility of discounts . And since both the middle class and car manufacturers are aware of the motiveless tax burden. I would expect a two-pronged approach to deal with the common enemy, the middle class stopping buying cars, and the following is out of the blue: Top car manufacturers threaten a walkout or seek a bailout or compensation of sorts in order to budge the government to lower taxes to the benefit of the buyers of cars and sellers!

We know that the current dispensation would love to sell itself at the altar of employment. The drastic move out of the blue esp. the walkout will not only threaten loss of tax but the inadvertent rise of unemployement which is something the current dispensation would like to avoid at all costs to the extent of selling themselves. They would love to offer unlimited credit to anyone who could simply alleviate the unemployement problem even if the ones employed are sitting ducks waving off flies. The middle class is the biggest contributor of taxes, its a cow they have been milking(pun intended) since time immemorial, and they continue to do so with no shame!

[Rajeevraj]

This is a podcast/video from Autocar that I enjoyed:

https://youtu.be/Mke8N3zEX5A?si=1pfRMTmq4UEVhVzR

While not directly relevant to the thread, Hormazd, makes a important point with respect to the different era's in our automotive history. As per him, the period from early 2000s to maybe about 2020 was the golden age of the auto industry.

This is the period when the industry really opened up, lot of manufacturers came in with all kinds of models, giving unprecedented choice and options. Each iteration or a new model was a significant jump from the previous one. Newer segments, features, engines, transmissions etc.. All this coupled with the general increase in purchasing power and need for an upgrade, resulted in the continuous increase in demand especially in the 10-20L segment.

In the last 5-6 years in my view, things have kind of plateaued. Of course, the numbers are still increasing and cars have improved in a lot of aspects. Having said that, for most people who have purchased a car in the last 10 years and maintained it well, an upgrade will be more of a want than a need. Coupled with other factors such as EV Adoption, traffic congestion, pricing - upgrading just due to a "want" is probably something people think twice about.

My own case is a good example. I drive a 2013 Vento TSI and I have been "wanting" to upgrade for the last 2-3 years. But do I have a real "need" to? Probably not. My car meets 70% of my requirements still, would be nice to have some new stuff but that is still not enough to push me to go for it.

Like fellow member Annibaddh has mentioned below, If I have a real need, then I will go with the best option that meets my requirement the best, but if there is no real need, then we tend to be quite picky and wait for the perfect upgrade option because we can afford to do that. Such an option may never come and ultimately that want will become a need and we go with what works best.

Originally Posted by Annibaddh

Oh I thought I was the only one in this boat! My 2012 Vento TDI has been getting long in the tooth, what with a 170K on the odo. And I have been test driving cars for nearly 4 years now! But I just can't find anything worthwhile to replace my Vento. Nothing below 35L from the current lot comes close to the Vento in terms of a proper upgrade. Even post the 35L mark - VW twins removed the diesel workhorse - and even the feel of the 2.0 TDI which was really incredible. Jeep's cars are decent, but the company is on deathbed. C5 was never meant to sell - even if it is an excellent product. Stellantis has no interest in that car. Camry is a near perfect product but I cannot come to compromise on quality of ICE, lack of CarPlay etc which are things that I will live with on an everyday basis (Why Toyota Why), and suddenly we are in 50L territory. And even then, hardly anything worthwhile!

Even after paying 5 times what I paid for the Vento, there's no complete product! Forget cheaper upgrades.

[John Jacob13128]

Originally Posted by PrasannaDhana

As a middle class buyer, I believe we should stop buying cars for a few years.

The automobile companies, our government and taxation, road infrastructure, city and town planning don't deserve the hefty amount of money that they drain from us.

Yes, the Taxation (29% to 50%) need to be dropped to 7-10%, Infrastructure (Good scientifically designed roads, less potholes, less manhole covers a foot higher, less poor quality Bitumin) and a La Kerala type AI Camera Fines have to be implemented on war footing to bring some good old roads etiquette.

Also, we need all cars to be fitted with OBD to track driving pattern which will reward good drivers and penalise poor drivers with higher Insurance Premiums y-o-y (Sudden accelerations, lane changes, Braking, Honking). By deploying AI and more tech solutions in this sector we can curb rampant rule breaking & bribery.

The roads and etiquette in countries like Sri Lanka, Nepal, Thailand, Vietnam are all leagues ahead of India. With increasing car penetration, some visionary leadership is desperately required.

The below chart (sourced from MORTH - https://morth.nic.in/sites/default/f...022_30_Oct.pdf) speaks volumes where the priorities should be. For some perspective China has less than half the road fatalities with close to 5X the vehicular penetration.