[Elevate2024]

Originally Posted by ramki.grandhi

Few observations
11. Honda numbers are worrying.

Looks like Honda is content with the monthly sales of 5.5k they are doing and in terms of their rankings they will surely go further down once Kylaq and VW's sister product starts rolling out. With only a facelift of Amaze in pipeline and no new product on horizon for next year, Honda is betting on exports rather than sales in India.

They need to be nimble and agile and launch more products if they want to revive else they will remain like Nokia of auto industry in India

[souvikjana83]

Originally Posted by ramki.grandhi

11. Honda numbers are worrying.

Honda don't care. They have given up on the Indian market long back. They concentrate on other markets where they sell in superb numbers..

[balpreetsingh]

When I see this sales data across months my observation is about Tata.

Their Sales peaked in Jan 2024. For Feb they were no 2 in sales ahead of Hyundai and then the numbers started coming down.

Where is TATA going wrong? I am puzzled. I do like their design language across models. Be is Safari, Harrier, Nexon etc. However, the price wise Safari is higher than XUV700

Is it product quality, negative word of mouth or what? They are front runners in EV sales. Without these, they may be far lower in ICE sales ranking.

Regards,

Balpreet Singh

[somersault]

Being a recent Kodiaq customer, I am happy that Skoda and VW group are doing good in general. With Kylaq and similar offering from VW, we expect this number to go up. The driving dynamics and refinement of their cars is miles above other brands. However, looking at the overall picture, Maruti tops the chart. "Kitna Deti Hai" attitude counts majorly.

[sid3091]

Originally Posted by balpreetsingh

When I see this sales data across months my observation is about Tata.

I think they're losing sales by not having a Petrol engine in their top-end offerings. EVs will help there, but not as much as petrol or hybrid cars would.

Additionally, I have little doubt their poor QA and service experience has become public knowledge. Meme pages, word-of-mouth or even first-hand experiences have made people wary of buying Tata

[RGK]

Thanks Adhitya for the detailed analysis.

According to the info from FADA, there were about 7.9 lakh cars still up for sale. October sales were around 4 lakhs. So, can we assume that the inventory went down by about ~3.5 lakh units (not counting any new launches)? Do we have any data on the current unsold inventory?.

[Elevate2024]

Originally Posted by RGK

Thanks Adhitya for the detailed analysis.

According to the info from FADA, there were about 7.9 lakh cars still up for sale. October sales were around 4 lakhs. So, can we assume that the inventory went down by about ~3.5 lakh units (not counting any new launches)? Do we have any data on the current unsold inventory?.

I believe the inventory numbers would have come down quite significantly as the retail sales were 4.83lakh excluding Telangana. The build up of inventory was in anticipation of bumper retail sales during festive season. Hopefully whenever the next inventory numbers comes up they shall go down to usual 45 days of inventory

[autobahnjpr]

So it is neck and neck for position 2-4 .. Mahindra has overtaken Tata and now going after Hyundai for the number two spot. This is good for the industry as good competition benefits the customers. I suspect new Dzire will take away some share from Hyundai and Tata. Lets see.

[ferrarirules]

Here is the data from the inventory standpoint.

Retail Sales Trend for 2024
October was a bumper sales month for all manufacturers. The retail sales trend shows that as well



Inventory trend for 2024
The inventory had a cool off for all manufacturers except Toyota




Inventory Change for the month
For the first time in the year, dispatches were lower than sales for all manufacturers except Toyota




Inventory as percentage of average retail sales
Toyota is sitting at 2nd highest inventory after Maruti. All manufacturers except Toyota have reduced 2024 inventory to less than 1 month of average sales.

Please note: All sales numbers exclude Telangana Data.

[rkv_2401]

I didn't understand until now just how dismal Citroen's sales are. They barely move 700 units a month, even though all but one of their cars are competing in the C-segment. And half of that comes from electric cars.

The C3 and C3 Aircross numbers, which are their bread and butter models, remind me of the Camry sales numbers from last year. And the Camry is a D2 segment sedan.

[PreludeSH]

I have seen very few new Vernas on road. Now looking at the sales numbers, it doesn't look very good. City is not very far in terms of sale.

Hyundai has moved away from hatchbacks to its crossovers successfully. Might be having more margins also. Honda lost on this front. Only Maruti is selling boat loads of hatchbacks/non-crossovers

[ArTigor]

So here onwards I envisage Maruti Suzuki Market share to keep increasing, if not going above the 50% market share, they should at least easily be hovering above the 45% market share mark. Dzire itself shall help them regain some reputation regarding safety. Add to that the good design and balanced features in most of their recent launches, Maruti Suzuki seems to finally get their act together.

Hyundai seems to be stagnant at the current numbers, they will remain so, will surely slip to number 3 position.

Mahindra will surely see a rise in their market share, save for Marazzo, every other car is a super hit! Add to these the new wave of EV they have in their pipeline, the numbers are surely going upwards, it has got the right recipe to be a formidable number 2 player in the auto industry for sure.

Tata might further see a dip in their numbers, at present the Tata lineup design reminds me of a similar family look strategy they had during the Indica-Indigo era, when every car had similar looking facia, i.e. Indica-Vista-Manza-Aria.
Punch-Nexon-Curvv are too similar to look at from dead front. The pre facelift Nexon had a butchness which seems to have been lost in the current facelift. But the main reason remains after sales service, myself being a Tata Tigor owner for the last 7 years can clearly say that Tata service is a mess, you take your car with one issue, they will give you your car back with 3 issues. Spares are costlier than a Maruti and also sometimes spares are not readily available.
Hyundai, Maruti, Kia are way ahead in terms of after sales service. I am never recommending Tata cars to others, neither looking forward to buy a Tata. Their cars are good, I love they way my Tigor has aged (with a lot of care and efforts from my side), but neither their service centers are good, nor are their cars service friendly (read one part keeps breaking when other/related part is being replaced).

Volkswagen & Skoda will grow with their India centric approach, Kylaq shall surely add 3-3.5k monthly cars to Skoda.

Citroen Basalt is such a good product, but then if you are not visible (read showrooms) you will not sell. No matter what, digital presence is not enough in India, your conventional buyer will always take a glance at the showroom while driving by, and that implicit memory many a times plays a crucial role while deciding which car to buy.

Nissan needs at least 4 India centric SUV's in their portfolio to make a mark, they have got one i.e. Magnite. They should now get a product each in Punch-Exter segment, Creta segment and XUV 700 segment. They have all of these products in their global portfolio, its just about taking the right decision. Half hearted attempts like the Xtrail will always be a failure.

Toyota enjoying badge engineering to the fullest, is this most successful badge engineering strategy ever in India? Imagine what happens if at all Toyota thinks of launching few more SUV's in India like the RAV4 and the 4Runner, ain't it the right time and market for these cars in India?

Honda: Elevate is selling just average, City doesn't sell good, Amaze with the facelift may hit a few thousand more cars per month, that's it.

Electric vehicle craze is winding down, urban people are showing greater faith in mild hybrids, few years ago people were laughing at Suzuki, Honda and Toyota for being laggards in EV, look at the global scenario today, guess Toyota with their Hybrids is having the last laugh! Toyota-Suzuki partnership in India has just started harvesting the benefits of their faith in Hybrids (mild), I foresee a larger play of Mild Hybrids and greater penetration in the market in the future, though some successful lobbying to reduce tax burden on mild hybrids is required.

[arjab]

Interesting figures:
MG: With 4878 EV's, close to 70% of total MG sales are now electric. Impressive.

Ertiga: Best selling model in Maruti's line-up. Shows the consumer's liking towards practical family transportation. Between Ertiga and XL-6 it totals up to over 21,000 units. Serious numbers indeed.
Jimny: Is this a flash in the pan? October discounts were more or less the same compared to other months' of the year. So, why the sudden spurt in sales? Only the coming months will tell whether this is a "one-off" or sustainable.

Creta: Selling more than double of its cousin, the Seltos. Cousin is jealous. Very.

Altroz: Sad to see one of the best styled and dynamically competent hatchback languishing at the sales stakes. Does not look as if the Racer edition has had any positive impact on sales. A better petrol engine may have helped tick the retail pendulum in Altroz's favour but now it is too late.

Hope Renault & Nissan have gained access to Harry Potter's magic wand! It needs it badly, just to keep its head above water. Launching the upcoming new Duster only in a petrol variant is not the right thinking. Duster is looked upon as superbly comfortable, highway mile munching SUV and to munch the miles you got to offer a Diesel in an SUV in India. With an automatic transmission. Renault-Nissan: why don't you ask your neighbours; Mahindra?

Volkswagen group seem to be running out of puff. Possibly the Kylaq will boost volumes when it pops in. Fingers crossed.

God also doesn't know what Stellantis's product and retail strategy is. With Citroen dealers regularly dissappearing from key cities and towns, it is indeed a tough task for the French OEM to build up a credible brand image.

[LakeWalker]

Originally Posted by balpreetsingh

When I see this sales data across months my observation is about Tata.
Where is TATA going wrong? ...
Is it product quality, negative word of mouth or what?

Regards,

Balpreet Singh

Imagine, this. You bought your first car. Your dream car. You chose an Indian brand because you wanted to boast it on social media or you actually genuinely believed in the brand. You took the delivery and is going home with your family. A happy occasion. But the car breaks down on the way. You contacts the brand. They either says it's not their problem or make you wait for RSA for hours and later keeps the car in SC for weeks. Youtube and social media is filled with such stories. No other car manufacturer in India has "achieved" this! When actual fans of the brand, who were going gaga about the brand till just a minute before his first car broke down, cries about their hard earned money because they did the mistake of buying a Tata car, public listens.

This alone is killing their brand. But this "trend" didn't start last month. It's the same story since last 2-3 years. They could've changed their QC and service policies. But they haven't. Not yet. So they are struggling.

It's high time they completely change their SC and QC policies.

[greenhorn]

This is not exactly new. Tata relies on Anti incumbency trends a lot to drive sales. This is an ongoing phenomenon. An new generation of buyers enter the market, and want to distance themselves from the "traditional Indian uncle" mindset and look for options beyond the traditional mass sellers. They "discover" Tata cars as underrated and differentiated products and buy them en masse, in a quest to be different. This happened in 1998(indica v1), 2006-8(Vista, indigo cs, indica), 2017-20 (Nexon, altroz, Tiago) etc and then discover the bitter truth, and then join the ranks of the "traditional mindset" they were trying so hard to move away from. Tata hides out for a while until the next generation of gullible buyers is ready to kick start the next phase.

Tata has supposedly been improving it's service quality for 20 years. None of this is new to them. They just don't care. They have made their money. They are, at the strategic level, focused on creating the next big thing to address the 2027-30 cohort and operationally, squeeze the most of its existing products and owners