[gsurya]

Originally Posted by S_U_N

So, they are going to take that money from us? If price is hiked by Rs. 10+ then we are back in the 85+ range/ liter. Bad times ahead.

For Fuel prices to FALL further from present levels:

- Brent has to get cheaper
- Inflation has to stay under 5%
- Rupee has to continue strengthen by 50 ps a month
- GDP growth rates in West & China should not increase (i.e. fuel demand)
- Govt has to fund entire Euro-5 upgrade instead of collecting from consumer.

What do you want bet on?

I bet Fuel prices will continue to increase, we can only hope it stays to about 10% per annum, not more.

[sgiitk]

@gsurya; UBS predicts rupee at 62 to a dollar by the end of 2105.

[gsurya]

Originally Posted by sgiitk

@gsurya; UBS predicts rupee at 62 to a dollar by the end of 2105.

I hope you meant 2015 Yes 62 to USD would be a good level for Rupee to be in though exporters would like it to be around 65. FII or FDI inflows will zoom only if Rupee falls further to become competitive.

But this also means costlier fuel imports, read higher prices at the pump.

[Desi Dybuk]

Originally Posted by sgiitk

@gsurya; UBS predicts rupee at 62 to a dollar by the end of 2105.

Call me a skeptic, but I rarely trust these 'Analysts' who make public predictions like these. Their real analysis, they would only share with their paying clients.

Seeing the economy bounce back, increased interest due to the perceptions of a proactive new government in India, withdrawal of FIIs from Russia & into India etc means that Rs is only going to strengthen in the months to come. Take it for whatever it's worth but I feel Rs will strengthen to 58 by year end.

Consequently, I expect fuel prices to drop further...

[saket77]

The Union Minister of Home Affairs, Mr. Rajnath Singh has indicated that the Govt. will try to reduce the prices of diesel too. Link: http://aajtak.intoday.in/story/diese...-1-778357.html

Looks like the fuel is completely deregulated now and the decrement is being talked in perspective of fall in crude prices or hoping to ride on a stronger rupee.

[khoj]

US domestic production is now at it's highest level and increasing. Earlier this year the US government lifted the ban on export of crude and it is estimated that by 2030 they will stop importing altogether and will become net exporters. This leaves countries sitting on stocks in South America, Africa and of course the Gulf. Further China is increasing it's off take from Russia and reducing the same from Gulf. If the above pans out and all indications are that it will crude prices may have seen their glory days and could be headed South. Add to the above some countries towing the Iran line and agreeing to accept payment against our exports to them adjusted in terms of INR value (no pegging to INR vs $) the scenario becomes even more interesting. The latest expansion announced by Reliance involves making their refining units capable of increased levels of sour crude which is what a majority of output from the Gulf is. Surely these guys will invest in this technology only when they perceive sweeter deals for sour crude coming their way in the times to come.

Originally Posted by gsurya

I bet Fuel prices will continue to increase, we can only hope it stays to about 10% per annum, not more.

[sgiitk]

Originally Posted by Desi Dybuk

Seeing the economy bounce back, increased interest due to the perceptions of a proactive new government in India, withdrawal of FIIs from Russia & into India etc means that Rs is only going to strengthen in the months to come. Take it for whatever it's worth but I feel Rs will strengthen to 58 by year end.

Yes but inflation at 6% as against ~2% in the developed world will push to other way.

[Desi Dybuk]

Originally Posted by sgiitk

Yes but inflation at 6% as against ~2% in the developed world will push to other way.

Yes, controlling the inflation will determine the future of prices. Considering RBI's aversion to inflation, I suspect inflation can't get any worse & might even be tamed.

[sgiitk]

Now with CAD at 1.7% something really good may happen. I expect a rate cut very soon. The chain reaction should help!

[Desi Dybuk]

Originally Posted by sgiitk

Now with CAD at 1.7% something really good may happen. I expect a rate cut very soon. The chain reaction should help!

Sir, don't you think it's about the right time to look at the absurd taxation regime difference between Petrol & Diesel? There's no reason why one fuel should be taxed so high when compared to another.

[S_U_N]

Petrol price was around 76.50 (cannot remember exact figure now), yesterday in Pune.

Around 15 days back it was about Rs. 81.5 at the same place.

[pgsagar]

Originally Posted by drmohitg

Also the depreciation would be much higher on the petrol variant than the diesel. Hence it is not that easy to draw such conclusions.

Depreciation is an artificial factor in tune with times. If the whole nation goes Goa way as far as prices of fuels are concerned, petrol cars won't depreciate as much. People would be open to idea of used petrol cars and should that happen petrol cars won't depreciate that much.

As for FE is concerned, both petrol and diesel FE figures certified by ARAI are academic. In real life scenario neither returns as much FE. I see diesel cars being driven very rashly, spooling turbo up, slipping clutch or dragging ( the belching smoke tells the stroy ) and not to speak of several minutes of careless idling with aircon on at malls, stations etc. which most diesel car owners subject their cars to. So in then end all the economy is negated. I say this from my personal experience, when I had owned a diesel sedan ( Lancer) 2 years ago, I would make 3 trips for 3 chores, idle unnecessarily, step on it etc. But a change over to petrol car made me make 1 trip and finish all 3 chores. I'm saving more now than in my diesel car days.

[drmohitg]

Originally Posted by pgsagar

Depreciation is an artificial factor in tune with times. If the whole nation goes Goa way as far as prices of fuels are concerned, petrol cars won't depreciate as much. People would be open to idea of used petrol cars and should that happen petrol cars won't depreciate that much.

As for FE is concerned, both petrol and diesel FE figures certified by ARAI are academic. In real life scenario neither returns as much FE. I see diesel cars being driven very rashly, spooling turbo up, slipping clutch or dragging ( the belching smoke tells the stroy ) and not to speak of several minutes of careless idling with aircon on at malls, stations etc. which most diesel car owners subject their cars to. So in then end all the economy is negated. I say this from my personal experience, when I had owned a diesel sedan ( Lancer) 2 years ago, I would make 3 trips for 3 chores, idle unnecessarily, step on it etc. But a change over to petrol car made me make 1 trip and finish all 3 chores. I'm saving more now than in my diesel car days.

Goa is a very small place compared to the rest of the country. So for a general discussion we need to keep into account the situation prevalent throughout the country and not in just one region.

Regarding the FE, petrol FE figures vary quite a bit in comparison to diesel from the official ARAI ratings. This is based on my experience of driving in Delhi. Smaller cities with less dense traffic might vary a little. So for example all D segment cars like Altis, Jetta return a healthy 17-19 kmpl whereas there petrol counterparts struggle to return 11 kmpl. That is a huge difference.

Lastly when you do these calculations, you cant claim that with a petrol car you modify your style of living or driving and do 3 chores at a time unlike with a diesel where you would have made multiple trips without bothering. This sense of freedom itself is a factor enough to make me opt for diesel.

[Desi Dybuk]

Originally Posted by drmohitg

Goa is a very small place compared to the rest of the country. So for a general discussion we need to keep into account the situation prevalent throughout the country and not in just one region.

Regarding the FE, petrol FE figures vary quite a bit in comparison to diesel from the official ARAI ratings. This is based on my experience of driving in Delhi. Smaller cities with less dense traffic might vary a little. So for example all D segment cars like Altis, Jetta return a healthy 17-19 kmpl whereas there petrol counterparts struggle to return 11 kmpl. That is a huge difference.

Lastly when you do these calculations, you cant claim that with a petrol car you modify your style of living or driving and do 3 chores at a time unlike with a diesel where you would have made multiple trips without bothering. This sense of freedom itself is a factor enough to make me opt for diesel.

Yours is an empirical data when you don't want to take ARAI figures and say that Petrol vehicles 'Struggle' to get 8-10 km/l & Diesel 'easily' gets 17-18 in city.

I drive in Bangalore & I consistently get 12-13 in City & get 17 out on the highway. It's because I drive sensibly.

Let us work with Data that can be validated in absence of another source, shall we?

In addition, what about the additional cost of maintenance/servicing of Diesel cars?

Then there's that issue about Diesel in India being 'Dirty' and more noxious.

[blacksport]

Originally Posted by Desi Dybuk

Yours is an empirical data when you don't want to take ARAI figures and say that Petrol vehicles 'Struggle' to get 8-10 km/l & Diesel 'easily' gets 17-18 in city.

I drive in Bangalore & I consistently get 12-13 in City & get 17 out on the highway. It's because I drive sensibly.

Let us work with Data that can be validated in absence of another source, shall we?

In addition, what about the additional cost of maintenance/servicing of Diesel cars?

Then there's that issue about Diesel in India being 'Dirty' and more noxious.

Moreover, 1.25L saved on a petrol car would grow to 2.5L by the time the car becomes old enough to be sold, and at that time the 2.5L at hand would more than compensate for the loss due to higher depreciation. Buying diesel cars were rarely economical, even when it was 55 per liter. Diesel buyers just hate to do the math.