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Old 9th June 2009, 11:49   #1
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Default May 2009 : Indian Car Sales & Analysis

This analysis has been jointly prepared by GTO + Vasudeva. Many thanks to Vasudeva for the support!

- Overall market down 0.8% year on year (from 141,940 four wheelers to 140,823). Month on month sales up by 3.8% (From 135,697 in April 2009).

Market Share (by manufacturer):

- Maruti 50.3% (+ 5.1 points)
- Hyundai 16.7% (- 0.6 points)
- Tata 13.4% (- 2.8 points)
- M&M 6.0% (- 1.6 points)
- GM 3.6% (- 0.5 points)
- Honda 2.9% (+0.1 points)
- Toyota 2.8% (- 0.3 points)
- Ford 1.5% (+ 0.1 points)
- Fiat 0.8% (+ 0.5 points)
- Skoda 0.8% (- 0.5 points)
- HM 0.5% (- 0.2 points)
- Force 0.3% (- 0.2 points)
- BMW 0.2% (no change)
- Mercedes 0.1% (- 0.1 points)

Segment wise growth:

The entry-hatch segment (M800) has declined by a killing 66%, while the 3 – 6 lakh hatch segment has grown 11.1%! The C segment sedan has been clipped by 6.7%. Luxury car sales have gone down by anywhere between 22 – 28% (dependent on price band). Utility vehicles down as well (29.1% YOY and 27.1% MOM). BPO & taxi orders sinking? Clearly, the action is ONLY in the premium hatch segment, primarily of those costing 4 – 6 lakhs (now you know why everyone is lining up here : Ritz, Jazz, Punto, i20 etc.).

Last edited by GTO : 9th June 2009 at 11:51.
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Old 9th June 2009, 11:50   #2
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- 800 crashing every month and now at truly historic lows. Who said the Indian market wants the cheapest? Nope, VALUE is the new buzz word. I wouldn’t be surprised if the 800’s manufacturing cost is veering dangerously close to that of the Alto (economies of scale).

- Palio down a whopping 41%, but an increase of 170 cars month on month. I’ve said this before and will say it again : Fiat, kill the Palio & focus on modern products instead (Linea, Punto etc.). That’ll be a step in the right direction, toward rebuilding your image.

- Maruti records a massive 20.7% YOY growth in this segment, no doubt boosted by the Ritz & the A-star. Perhaps overproduction in 5/09: 67126 produced, 62,000 sold (incl. exports).

- Price cuts & melodies (music editions) seem to be helping the Spark’s cause, GM’s bankruptcy notwithstanding. The li’l hatch has enjoyed about a 17.2% YOY growth. Be sure to check the manufactured date though, GM’s moving old stock (as for the brand’s other cars too).

- Hyundai Santro & i10 are pretty much flat compared to the previous year (- 1.7%), yet an extremely impressive 21,000 cars moved (includes i20s too). Future growth will only come from diesels (diesels now account for 1/3 of all passenger cars sold in India). Exports up 45% BTW.

- The Indicas (old & Vista) have gained 3.3% YOY to a respectable 10,000 cars sold! Still, the Vista hasn’t made the impact that Tata expected it to.

- The worst selling hatch in the country? Yup, it’s the Skoda Fabia. A meager 232 cars sold, Skoda is now selling old stock Fabia (only 50 produced in 5/09). Skoda expected this car to give it the volumes (cheapest in the lineup) but is paying a heavy price for its shoddy service, expensive cost of ownership, substandard reliability etc.


- Maruti is the C-segment leader with 6,782 Dzire’s & SX4s whisked off showroom floors. The diesel Dzire, though not excelling in any single area, is the current rockstar in this segment.

- The Honda city records a 53% YOY step at 3638 (up from 2375). Clearly the current cash cow for Honda.

- Unexpected hero : Cut-price Ford Fiesta! The 5.5 lakh offer has got to be a substantial contributor to Ford’s 25.8% growth in the C segment. The Fiesta + Ikon managed to move 1,894 units in May 2009.

- The Linea is down to 901 cars (from 1100 – 1600 in recent months). Will probably stabilize around this range (diesel FE + build + size trump cards). Moderate overproduction in 5/09 means more than expected dealer stock.

- One can literally see the stress lines on Hyundai’s forehead. The Verna (now outclassed by competition) and Accent have fallen from grace (- 19.2% at a combined 2,593 cars).

- The Indigo is losing favour with buyers : YOY sales down 37.6% to 2,832 cars (from 4,542). Tata desperately needs the new Vista sedan. Hope they don’t botch the branding up though (a la new Indica). Tata is not producing and only selling 3/09 and 4/09 Indigos (mere 248 produced).

- Bye bye Aveo, Farewell to Optra. YOY sales down 60% (only 152 cars) for the Aveo and 69% (only 120 cars) for the Optra. Second biggest loss in the segment (after the Logan). GM desperately needs something fresh, the Optra’s gotten long in the tooth.

- The Ambassador, Lancer & Cedia trundle along at a combined 615 cars. HM must be satisfied (one of them is 60 years old, the other 12!). Majority – I bet – from the Ambassador (political + taxi customers).

- RIP Mahindra-Renault! A measly 427 cars sold in the Logan’s worst performance yet. Most of those have got to be commercial sales (taxis et al). An outdated cut-price product at a premium price (over the Indigo)? I don’t think so. Renault must be fuming.

Last edited by GTO : 9th June 2009 at 12:00.
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Old 9th June 2009, 11:51   #3
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C+ segment:

- The Altis is a rockstar! 127% growth at 682 Corollas sold. Buyers looking at practicality perhaps? Toyota – the master of efficiency - has accurately matched production and sales numbers.

- The Honda Civic is in DEEP trouble, recording its worst ever sales @ 223 cars only. I have a feeling the City has gained at the Civic’s expense. After all, it is 85% of the car at 75% of the price! Only 7 Civics produced in 5/09.

- Skoda Octavia & Laura in a soup as well. 36% YOY loss at a combined 655 cars sold. Clearly, the diesel advantage doesn’t outweigh a shoddy ownership experience. Octavia and Laura clearance on (only 265 produced in 5/09). Let’s see what the facelift Laura and its new engines can manage.

D Segment:

- Honda leads the pack here with 212 Accords sold, followed by the Superb @ 175 cars. Toyota is able to sell only 15 CBU overpriced Camrys (build it HERE, Toyota). The Sonata is still not “transformed”, managing a poor 27 cars (diesel advantage notwithstanding). Notice that the Accord is now selling as much as the Civic!

Luxury Cars:

- The Merc C-Class outsells the BMW 3 series (73 C’s versus 44 3 series). BMW fights back with its 5 defeating the E Class (98 5 series versus 69 E Class). The S Class & 7 series sell very respectable numbers (39 of the S and 27 of the awesome new 7). Stock market bouncing back, wot?

Last edited by GTO : 9th June 2009 at 11:52.
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Old 9th June 2009, 11:52   #4
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MUV’s + SUV’s:

- Mahindra is king of the UV hill with a total of 8,033 utes sold. However, the Xylo’s celebration season is clearly over.

- Maruti’s Omni & Versa = 7619 = Lots of $$$ in the bank (depreciated machinery).

- Toyota also is profiting big time on those 3227 Innova’s sold (handful of Prados included).

- Tata records an impressive 1,200 Safari sales. Another surprise is the Gypsy @ 288 (offroad fever spreading ) Compare the 1200 Safaris to only 1,422 Sumos & Wingers sold!! I hope atleast some of the Safaris success can be credited to the brilliant “When you look back on your life” advertisement…it deserves a mention here.

- The Tavera & Captiva = 1198. Not bad for GM if you consider the net cash in.

- Mitsubishi managed to sell 133 Pajeros + Monteros + Outlanders while the Ford Endeavour scored a strong 184 sales. But I’ve a feeling they are going to get hammered by the Fortuner.

- The BMW X3 + X5 = 57. Merc M Class = only 12.

- Honda CRV = 0. The once popular soft-roader is a victim of forex fluctuations. The Grand Vitara = 0 sales as well. Maruti must be holding out for the new 2.4 engine (expected soon).
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Old 9th June 2009, 12:01   #5
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Where are the actual numbers please? In the spreadsheet format - would be good to have the complete file in one place.

Last edited by hrag : 9th June 2009 at 12:15.
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Old 9th June 2009, 12:06   #6
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Hrishi, numbers are given alongwith the narration.

GTO, It will be better to have the numbers in tabular format.
Nice analysis done!
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Old 9th June 2009, 12:10   #7
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Reading the newspapers and watching business channels, the spin was entirely different.
On a yoy basis, sales declined 0.8% in 5/2009, but increased 4.4% in 4/09, declined 1.2% in 3/2009, increased 15% in 2/09. Hardly any upward trend here.
Importantly, only the compact segment seems to be growing on a consistent basis.
Attached Files
File Type: xls DOMESTIC SALES.xls (307.5 KB, 1732 views)

Last edited by GTO : 9th June 2009 at 13:24. Reason: Uploading .xls
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Old 9th June 2009, 12:13   #8
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Originally Posted by GTO View Post
- The Linea is down to 901 cars (from 1100 – 1600 in recent months). Will probably stabilize around this range (diesel FE + build + size trump cards). Moderate overproduction in 5/09 means more than expected dealer stock.
Sad to see the sales slide in spite of an excellent product.
Just goes to show , people are not over the fuel guzzling/pathetic service image created in the past .

It high time they get their act together in terms of A.S.S.
Otherwise history will repeat itself.

I hope punto is able to salvage what linea could not.
all the best FIAT.

Last edited by ms001 : 9th June 2009 at 12:28.
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Old 9th June 2009, 12:14   #9
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No wonder the Corolla dealers are not offering any significant discounts! Waiting period is 30 - 45 days!

I'm quite surprised by the reduction in Civic numbers though. IMHO it is a much better buy than the City. I guess the E version being discontinued will impact sales even further!

I think now that the initial hoopla of the Linea has passed, sales are suffering. A.S.S of Tata/Fiat for the Linea is still not proven and people are scared due to the past repuation! Wonder what target the company had set it self.

Last edited by CarsPG : 9th June 2009 at 12:15.
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Old 9th June 2009, 12:21   #10
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If the M800's sales are diving, which model/brand is ganging from this? This is a very interesting aspect . Speaks volumes of how customer's perceptions are changing at the entry level. The Nano too did not attract the desired number of initial bookings as well. GTO you are definitely right about Value being the buzz word and not cheap.
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Old 9th June 2009, 12:31   #11
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Vasudeva: Pls post the spreadsheet.

Altis sales would have been aided by the introduction of J version to some extent. YoY growth doesn't count much as last year Corolla was almost on the way out around this time.
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Old 9th June 2009, 12:43   #12
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As usual, this made for great reading.

There are things that still dont seem right but ofcourse there are reasons for these, and may be perfectly logical ones at that!

*Why does the Altis sell so much and the Sonata none at all, eventhough thats a bigger price with more equipment, better warranty at just a slight premium? (The usual suspects: brand,positioning,etc) however I`m not comparing it to the Accord, but to something one segment below!

*The City outsells the Linea by a substantial margin eventhough the latter has the diesel advantage, better equipment, better rates, significantly more dealers etc etc. (The usual suspects plus India`s obsession with Honda and love hate relation with Fiat?)

*If the Civic`s sales are hurt by the City, by that logic, shouldn't the Corolla`s sales be hurt by the city too?

*OT: In Kolkata, I have seen only three Outlanders as yet, and one of them is on sale. (3 Months old, 3 Lakhs less it seems). Why couldnt Mitsu price at GV levels and atleast given it an opportunity to flourish.

*Safari: Tata is perhaps the only manufacturer whose Flagship(read:most expensive) product (Safari) sells more than its bread and butter ones (extended sumo family).

@GTO: A question. I didnt understand how forex fluctuations affected sales of the CRV.
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Old 9th June 2009, 12:44   #13
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Many thanks, I can't believe the Skoda numbers. How many units did Superb sell?

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Old 9th June 2009, 12:55   #14
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Originally Posted by evo View Post

@GTO: A question. I didnt understand how forex fluctuations affected sales of the CRV.
Due to increasing dollar prices/Japanese Yen, honda increased the CR-V price by 3.55Lakhs thereby killing it. The accord went up by 1L and Civic by 60K. This increase has affected sales badly.

I don't see VW in the list. I'm seeing quite a few Jetta's and Passat's here. Either that or i keep seeing the same few cars over and over again.

Last edited by Vid6639 : 9th June 2009 at 12:58.
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Old 9th June 2009, 12:56   #15
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Can we have the excel sheet please ?
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