[The Rationalist]

I'm happy that our market is a fraction of China's. Imagine the situation, India having similar cars produced each year with current infrastructure. Hope we move to better public transport before we reach the affordable prowess of our neighbour. I don't think our roads can ever accommodate traffic of the magnitude of China. You can't go on increasing the lanes in highways!

[hybridpetrol]

I was waiting for an analysis of this kind about China! Truly amazing to see the numbers!
One point about foreign "inspired" cars:
A large proportion of internet content is filtered through a great firewall, and no Chinese citizen can access the content beyond it. (Unless you know the tricks to use proxy servers from a different country). Same way, media is also controlled by the Communist Government. So, it is easy to understand that majority of the information flowing within Citizens is what the Government chooses to let them know.
Due to this, the fact that the car design of a particular car was entirely stolen never comes to the knowledge of the public. In fact, in such instances, the Chinese feel threatened by such foreign brands, and the original foreign brand is hated across China.
This is true even for tech companies like Cisco, wherein local companies copy their network elements as it is, but when this is known to public, Cisco ended up in a mess!
Such powerful is the controlled media.

Another point about comparing India & China:
I would say China is 3 times bigger than India, hence 3 times more space theoretically speaking, to drive cars. So we should say if our car market reaches even one-third of Chinese market, we should consider our sales numbers as equal to it.
Regarding number of people owning cars per 1000, it will take a lot of time, because in India, many families consider themselves content in this generation, if they have a good two wheeler.

[Rajeevraj]

Some additional Info on the Electric/Hybrid Car Sales missed in the initial post

• 8 Cities in China (Shenzhen, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Tianjin, Shijiazhuang, Guiyang, and Hangzhou) have brought in restrictions on the number of registrations allowed per month to combat the ever increasing traffic problems and smog related issues. This is done via a lottery or auction. The number ranges from 20-36,000 registration cap per month.
  
  
• Beijing has the most strict cap of 20,000 registrations per month. But in a bid to promote Electric/Hybrid Sales, there is no lottery or auction system for Electric/Hybrid Vehicles.
  
  
• This has caused a huge spurt in the sales of Electric/Hybrid Vehicles.
  
  
• Electric car production in October increased eight-fold year on year to 50,700 vehicles.
  
  
• Output of pure electric and plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles in October 2015 was 850 percent and 200 percent higher, respectively, than in October 2014.
  
  
• In the first 10 months, Chinese car makers produced 206,900 new energy vehicles, three times as many as they did in the same period last year.
  
  
• Intense promotion by the government has brought more and more new energy vehicles onto China's roads, saving energy and combating pollution.
  
  
• Measures including tax exemptions, subsidies and requirements for government bodies
  
  
• Tesla- the Marquee Electric Manufacturer has a good presence in China. Sales in China in the first three quarters of 2015 reached 3,025 cars, with 791 sold in Q1, 882 in Q2 and 1,345 in Q3, respectively,
  
  
• This was revealed by Elon Musk said at a press conference to unveil Tesla's new Autopilot system in Beijing.
  
  
• Expected to become Tesla’s biggest market in the next 4-5 years

.

EV Sales Jan-June 2015 North America vs Europe vs China

Top 10 EV's Jan-Jun 2015

BYD Qin

• Under the Qin’s hood is a 1.5-liter, four-cylinder engine works in conjunction with a hybrid battery system that gives owners the ability to drive 44 miles in full electric mode and average a combined fuel economy rating 177 MPGe.
  
• The combined powertrain puts out a total of 291 horsepower, allowing the car to accelerate from zero to 62 mph in a respectable 5.9 seconds. Its top speed is limited to a pedestrian 115 mph. Four driving modes (EV+ECO, EV+SPORT, HEV+ECO and HEV+SPORT) allow owners to change the way their Qin drives.
  
• Price: 189,800 Yuan (118,800 after subsidies)

Sources:

• EVObsession
• Other News Reports

[sandeepmdas]

Originally Posted by hybridpetrol

Another point about comparing India & China:
I would say China is 3 times bigger than India, hence 3 times more space theoretically speaking, to drive cars....
Regarding number of people owning cars per 1000, it will take a lot of time, because in India, many families consider themselves content in this generation, if they have a good two wheeler.

My 2 cents.
The traditional buying pattern of India is generally in favour of a. "part and parcel of land and domicile", that is, real estate and b. gold. The ownership or gifting of land and gold were considered both prestigious and noble since antiquity. For example, the kings always gifted fields, mansions or jewellry.

The quest for acquiring gold and immovable property is -IMO- deeply embedded in the DNA of most Indians. Only 2 weeks back, a relative of mine who was contemplating to buy an Audi Q7, simply changed his mind and bought 9.5 cents of land in Trivandrum. He was the most happiest man in Trivandrum last week if you ask me.

[Aniruddha_Ch]

Superb analysis Rajeevraj, thank you for sharing. I literally fell down after looking at sales numbers of Chevrolet Enjoy at 67k units vs 400 units in India. In my opinion Chevy's after sales and service in India should be one of the reason to blame here, that aside enjoy makes strong case for itself, in terms of practicality. At this price point, save for utilitarian external appearance and interiors, space is on par with its rivals if not better, even the ride quality is much better than its sibling Tavera.
Looks like VW captured quite a sizable amount of pie in Chinese Automobile market. Kudos to Chinese government for promoting electric vehicles

[Vitalstatistiks]

Originally Posted by captain.torque

See, what I only want to say is that if Tata or Mahindra start copying cars made by others and launch them here, will they work? NEVER.

What are you saying, sir. India, for that matter any market, will have its fair share of designs being copied. Why, the mass favorite Hyundai made its name (in India and elsewhere) with blatantly copied designs (remember Elantra and Sonata?) I though those days were behind them, they just copied Range Rover Evoque and launched their latest offering (Creta).

You may be strictly speaking of 'Indian' manufacturers, namely Tata and Mahindra, but it equally well applies there. For e.g. Commander Jeep, that made Mahindra household name, is a frame to frame lift of Willys, isn't it. Tata Sumo, was a copy paste of Mercedes G Class, no ? Doesn't the (half Indian) Swift remind you of Mini from more than one angle ?

[puneeth2]

Originally Posted by Vitalstatistiks

What are you saying, sir. India, for that matter any market, will have its fair share of designs being copied. Why, the mass favorite Hyundai made its name (in India and elsewhere) with blatantly copied designs (remember Elantra and Sonata?) I though those days were behind them, they just copied Range Rover Evoque and launched their latest offering (Creta).

You may be strictly speaking of 'Indian' manufacturers, namely Tata and Mahindra, but it equally well applies there. For e.g. Commander Jeep, that made Mahindra household name, is a frame to frame lift of Willys, isn't it. Tata Sumo, was a copy paste of Mercedes G Class, no ? Doesn't the (half Indian) Swift remind you of Mini from more than one angle ?

Creta looks like Evoque?! I beg to differ. And coming to Sumo and Swift, they might just be inspired from the latter not copied. It like saying all the phones in the market now look and interact alike. Some Chinese cars are blatant copies of famous cars.

[Rajeevraj]

Came across this JD Power Study comparing the China and India car buying approach and trends. Found it perfect for this thread. Comments are from Country Heads, Dr. Mei Songlin (Vice President and Managing Director of J.D. Power China) and Mr. Mohit Arora (Vice President of J.D. Power Asia Pacific)

• Interestingly the Top 3 Reasons driving purchases are exactly same for India and China.
• Friends and Relatives is the Top drivers behind decision making in both countries.
• The internet is in 2nd place in China, but 5th place in India
• For the percent using the internet, the Auto section of regular publications and dedicated forums are key decision drivers. But Auto Manufacturer websites occupy top slot.
• China buys almost exclusively through cash, India prefers finance.
• Interestingly, majority of the purchase in China is for first ever vehicle. In India, replacement and 2nd vehicle show healthy numbers

.


Source:

• Charts and analysis published by J.D. Power. Data from J.D. Power 2014 China Sales Satisfaction Index Study and J.D. Power 2014 India Sales Satisfaction Index Study
• Detailed PDF Link: data_file-Snapshot-of-How-Car-Buyers-Shop-Chinese-vs-Indian-1433495216.pdf
• Article Link: ETAuto

[amit_snk]

Sheer volume of sales is just 'WOW'. Reason most people think their market is not mature is because 9-10 times growth in 10 years is not evolutionary but explosive, thus it gives less time for manufacturers as well as buyers to mature and make decisions accordingly.

For example: it takes altleast 2-3 years for a manufacturer to develop a new model, to sell this kind of numbers in a normal market, manufacturer must have atleast more then 10 models in its portfolio which will take 20 years, now doing that in 10 years is a challenge for a new manufacturer, that's the reason why we see hosh-posh products.

And what's the point of giving extra benefits to electric cars when electricity you are producing is from dirty and inefficient sources e.g Coal(china is the single largest producer of electricity from coal). Its better to have cars running on efficient and clean petrol engines then on electricity produced from coal fired thermal power plants.

[interest]

One question that instantly comes to my mind looking at the car sales numbers in US, EU and China is whether the efforts of our environmental activists in India is a little misdirected. The activists are all for discouraging use of cars, organising car free days and painting cars as the major source of pollution. If I look at the vehicle sales data of US, UK, EU and China, the number of vehicles sold there are multiple times that of India. Moreover, these countries have been experiencing higher sales numbers than India for decades now (the base number of total vehicles itself would be very high here an not just the incremental number). Makes me wonder why these countries dont have the same pollution issues. If for example, stricter emission norms is the reason behind less pollution there then shouldn't we be advocating that instead of drastically reducing cars (which will have its own pitfalls like loss of jobs etc.)? I certainly advocate the use of public transport and I dont want to start a debate about cars over public transport here. My basic query is just about why these countries/regions are less polluted despite higher vehicle sales and whether our protest against cars is a little misdirected.

[Rajeevraj]

Originally Posted by interest

My basic query is just about why these countries/regions are less polluted despite higher vehicle sales and whether our protest against cars is a little misdirected.

They are not less polluted. China is struggling to control smog and pollution related issues across most of its big cities. Below is an extract from a recent article.

A breath of fresh air can be hard to come by, especially in certain parts of the world. Today in China's capital, Beijing, air pollution soared to 35 times accepted safety levels, leaving the government to order schools to close and residents to stay indoors. The alert level remains at Orange, one level below the highest alert which would force more drastic closings.
Unfortunately, this kind of pollution alert is not uncommon for Chinese cities. Studies have found that up to 4,000 people die every day in China due to air pollution. In fact, though the air pollution hit a new peak today, this round of smog has been visible since Sunday.
Two years ago similar amounts of smog blanketed the city, and even on days when the pollution is less visible, high amounts of particulates and pollutants in the air make living in the city incredibly difficult.

Source: Popular Science

At the same time, Delhi was also suffering one of it worst smog situations. But unfortunately, in India there is no standard alerting mechanism.

Delhi, meanwhile, witnessed one of its worst smog of the season, with visibility remaining less than 800 metres through Monday. PM 2.5 levels were in the 'severe' category in many parts of the city, with the most polluted spot, Anand Vihar, showing levels up to 530 mcg/cubic m between 2.30pm and 8pm.

Despite being labelled by the WHO as the world's most polluted city, there's no protocol in Delhi for warning residents when pollution levels spike. PM 2.5 levels at individual air monitoring stations have in the past few days crossed the 600 mark.

Many residents complained of a choking feeling as a white smog hung in the air through the last day of November, a month that saw Delhi's air quality dip alarmingly.

Source: TOI

Similarly there are some articles talking about the Pollution problem in cities like Los Angeles.

[interest]

Originally Posted by Rajeevraj

They are not less polluted. China is struggling to control smog and pollution related issues across most of its big cities. Below is an extract from a recent article.




Source: Popular Science

At the same time, Delhi was also suffering one of it worst smog situations. But unfortunately, in India there is no standard alerting mechanism.



Source: TOI

Similarly there are some articles talking about the Pollution problem in cities like Los Angeles.

I know China is polluted and is in the news for that but is this pollution largely attibutable to vehicles or is it also because of unchecked industrial expansion, large coal fired power plants in areas close to Beijing. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...curb-pollution
Besides even with its much higher vehicle numbers, Beijing now appears to be less polluted than Delhi so point worth pondering is if it is largely because of vehicles or is there something else as well. Apart from China, EU and US are also examples that need to be explored in detail to understand the extent to which vehicles are to be blamed for pollution vs. other factors.
Take for instance the case of Delhi NCR. I dont deny vehicles cause pollution but then there is also so much dust floating around that leads to the haze. There is also the burning of firewood during winter and burning of crops in neighbouring states that contributes to the haze. There is also lot of construction going around here because of housing, metro, flyovers etc which leads to particulate matter floating in the air. So what I am concerned about is-
a) Whether vehicles are indeed the biggest source of pollution and if so, is banning vehicles the only way to curb it or can we look at other countries and see what they have done to keep pollution in check despite large vehicle population
b) If vehicles are not the major source of pollution, in the process of targetting vehicles alone for pollution reduction are we going down the less effective route
c) The political parties dont understand that public transport needs to be confortable and provide last mile connectivity for a car user to shift. (Any attempt to make public transport in India comfortable would lead to charges of government favouring the well off). My worst fear is that the attempts of these activists succeed and vehicles are forcibly reduced on the road but the public transport capacity doesnt increase and the comfort level doesnt get better

[interest]

Originally Posted by Rajeevraj

They are not less polluted. China is struggling to control smog and pollution related issues across most of its big cities. Below is an extract from a recent article.




Source: Popular Science

At the same time, Delhi was also suffering one of it worst smog situations. But unfortunately, in India there is no standard alerting mechanism.



Source: TOI

Similarly there are some articles talking about the Pollution problem in cities like Los Angeles.

I know China is polluted and is in the news for that but is this pollution largely attibutable to vehicles or is it also because of unchecked industrial expansion, large coal fired power plants in areas close to Beijing. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...curb-pollution
Besides even with its much higher vehicle numbers, Beijing now appears to be less polluted than Delhi so point worth pondering is if it is largely because of vehicles or is there something else as well. Apart from China, EU and US are also examples that need to be explored in detail to understand the extent to which vehicles are to be blamed for pollution vs. other factors.
Take for instance the case of Delhi NCR. I dont deny vehicles cause pollution but then there is also so much dust floating around that leads to the haze. There is also the burning of firewood during winter and burning of crops in neighbouring states that contributes to the haze. There is also lot of construction going around here because of housing, metro, flyovers etc which leads to particulate matter floating in the air. So what I am concerned about is-
a) Whether vehicles are indeed the biggest source of pollution and if so, is banning vehicles the only way to curb it or can we look at other countries and see what they have done to keep pollution in check despite large vehicle population
b) If vehicles are not the major source of pollution, in the process of targetting vehicles alone for pollution reduction are we going down the less effective route
c) The political parties dont understand that public transport needs to be confortable and provide last mile connectivity for a car user to shift. (Any attempt to make public transport in India comfortable would lead to charges of government favouring the well off). My worst fear is that the attempts of these activists succeed and vehicles are forcibly reduced on the road but the public transport capacity doesnt increase and the comfort level doesnt get better.


Mods- I posted the same comment twice by mistake. Am trying to delete the previous one. Request you to please delete it in case I am unable to delete it. Thanks

[racer_ash]

Originally Posted by interest

One question that instantly comes to my mind looking at the car sales numbers in US, EU and China is whether the efforts of our environmental activists in India is a little misdirected. The activists are all for discouraging use of cars, organising car free days and painting cars as the major source of pollution. If I look at the vehicle sales data of US, UK, EU and China, the number of vehicles sold there are multiple times that of India. Moreover, these countries have been experiencing higher sales numbers than India for decades now (the base number of total vehicles itself would be very high here an not just the incremental number). Makes me wonder why these countries dont have the same pollution issues. If for example, stricter emission norms is the reason behind less pollution there then shouldn't we be advocating that instead of drastically reducing cars (which will have its own pitfalls like loss of jobs etc.)? I certainly advocate the use of public transport and I dont want to start a debate about cars over public transport here. My basic query is just about why these countries/regions are less polluted despite higher vehicle sales and whether our protest against cars is a little misdirected.

Another point to consider here is that levels of pollution in areas other than Metros. Sure, our Metros are among the most polluted of the lot, but we have huge areas (read rural) where vehicular pollution is almost Nil. This is not the case with China or any other major car market. In such markets, even in rural areas, there is a fair bit of vehicular pollution. In my short stint at UK, where I was deputed to a small town, there was still quite a bit of vehicular pollution. Compared to that, my hometown in rural TN is a paradise with excellent air quality.

If you ask me, it is better we stem the growth of automobiles at an earlier stage when things can still be controlled. If we were to reach consumption levels even half that of China, even rural areas in our dear Motherland will sputter and choke.

[chakri400]

I was assuming China probably has many more kms of roadways compared to India owing to its 3x size. I was wrong. Google and wikipedia say India has marginally more KMs of roadways than China. Going by numbers in this thread, number of cars/km of China is much higher than India.

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...d_network_size


No wonder, China had a record 10+ day traffic jam with cars moving 1 km/day in 2010
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_...10_traffic_jam