[GTO]

A summary of UBS' analysis & findings. I like how the language & presentation is newbie friendly:

Q1: When will EVs reach consumer cost parity, and what will be the impact on EV sales?
- Europe is first in 2018E but still at a loss for the OEMs; true cost parity (5% OEM margin) is reached in 2023E.
- Raising forecasts by ~50% to 14% global sales penetration (30% in Europe) by 2025E.

Q2: What is different in an EV like the Chevy Bolt, compared to an equivalent ICE car?
- Much less mechanical complexity, far fewer moving and wearing parts.
- EV powertrain $9k more expensive today, going down to $4k by 2025E.

Q3: How profitable are EVs like the Bolt and the upcoming Tesla Model 3?
- Bolt: $7k EBIT loss per car 2017E, going to $6k profit in 2025E, holding price stable.
- Tesla Model 3: $2,800 loss per car today on base version, but well-equipped versions should be profitable. We estimate $41k is the break-even point.

Q4: What is the impact on the auto industry?
- OEMs: EVs become profitable sooner; more CO2 benefit, particularly for EU OEMs. Finco risk is the key downside.
- LG as a new entrant has ~56% content share in the Bolt.
- Mixed picture for "traditional" tier-1 suppliers and longterm threat in aftermarket.

Q5: How are global commodities markets influenced by the shift to EVs?
- Highest impact on markets for aluminium, copper, battery active materials, rare earths (all positive) and platinum group metals (negative).
- Largely no impact on steel demand.

Q6: How much more electronics and semi content is in an EV, and who is set to benefit?
- $3k more electr(on)ic content (ex battery).
- EV powertrain contains c$580 of semiconductor content compared to an ICE car at $60-90.
- Electronics powerhouses and semi suppliers likely to grab substantial market share.
- Shift to EVs is one of the two structural trends driving up semi content (along with autonomous driving). Autos to be one of the fastest-growing markets for semis.

[sri_tesla]

Volvo just announced that they will stop the production of cars that run solely on diesel or petrol by 2019. Every car from 2019 will have an electric power train. That means all volvo cars from 2019 will be either fully electric or electric hybrid models.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/...r-go-electric/

Highlights from todays announcement:
1. With today's announcement volvo becomes the first major traditional automaker to go all electric.
2. Between 2019 and 2021, Volvo will release 5 fully electric cars. Out of these 5, 2 will be under the recently revived high performance polestar brand.
3. Rest of the volvo range will come with plug-in-hybrid power train.
4. By 2025, Volvo is planning to sell 1 million electrified cars.

With major company like Volvo going fully electric, I believe electric revolution is official

[sgiitk]

@sri_tesla; If it comes about, I have no doubts that the Swedes will achieve it. The it wis be a cataclysmic change in the auto world. This will be bigger than Digital photography killing off the film technology.

[samdarshi.pali]

Great analysis on the biggest, fastest change taking shape for transportation. https://t.co/ZUCceYXRw3

[volkman10]

Virtually all auto makers (except for Tesla) are asking China to slowdown the Electric car mandate.

The American Automotive Policy Council (AAPC), which represents Chrysler/Fiat, Ford, and GM, the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA), which represents all major European automakers, the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association (JAMA) and the Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association (KAMA), have all sent a joint letter to China’s Minister of Industry and Information Technology to ask for several significant changes to the mandate.

The “six recommended modifications” include slowing the rollout of the mandate by 1 to 3 years, reconsidering the penalty system if they don’t meet the quota, having credits not only for all-electric cars but also plug-in hybrid cars, and basically making the whole mandate weaker so that they don’t have to produce as many electric cars.

Foreign manufacturers want more credit given to plug-in hybrid cars, for carmakers to be allowed to "bank" credits accrued from already sold cars as well as to "carry forward" credits into subsequent model years.

In addition, they are demanding an ability to purchase NEV credits from the Chinese government.

ev

[sri_tesla]

As per Elon Musk (Tesla CEO), at least 50% of new vehicle production in United states will be electric within 10 years (2027 ?). Since the average vehicle lifetime is around 15 years, it will take another 15-20 years after that, for the complete vehicle fleet to be electric.

He also revealed that Tesla will build another 2 to 3 GIGA factories in USA in the next few years to produce electric vehicles, batteries and battery packages.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2C-A797y8dA

[sri_tesla]

Tesla Model 3 deliveries event invite:

Source: https://electrek.co/2017/07/17/tesla...nvites-owners/

[volkman10]

For India, specific to EV, a lot need to be answered before jumping into introduction of EV's says Mercedes India Chief!

In India BS-IV vehicles are less polluting than electric vehicles, because in India 65% of your electric energy is produced from fossil fuels. So in long term diesel vehicle will produce less pollution than an electric vehicle if the energy producing company does not have the same level of the improvements as of automotive companies

link

[Rahul Rao]

I agree somewhat with the MB India chief. Even Indian railways have reported higher carbon emission per kw from Electric locomotives than from diesels, their source of electricity is 70% coal burning thermal power though.
In the long term this will not be the scene, and even in the short term, a diesel electric hybrid will be cleaner than any thing else. Carbon emission per kw from diesel is 28.5% less than petrol which is also lesser than CNG.

Rahul

[phamilyman]

Meanwhile in Kolkata, reality is stranger than fiction:
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/c...w/58571704.cms
For the past five months, attempts to register electric cars at the Public Vehicles Department in Kolkata have been foiled by absurd arguments from transport officials that exemplify red tape in bureaucracy and government.Over a dozen electric cars purchased by customers, including five by Kolkata Police, are awaiting registration since January. Several customers are even paying EMI without being able to use the car they have bought.

That is because the Public Vehicles Department is insisting the company declare the cubic capacity of the car's engine despite Mahindra Electric officials trying to reason that it cannot do so because its cars don't have engines and run on batteries

Forget Digital India, Modi ji needs to start a "Use Your Brain India" campaign for such babus. Its a shame this farce went on for so long.

[for_cars1]

Originally Posted by phamilyman

Meanwhile in Kolkata, reality is stranger than fiction:


..the Public Vehicles Department is insisting the company declare the cubic capacity of the car's engine despite Mahindra Electric officials trying to reason that it cannot do so because its cars don't have engines and run on batteries

No use arguing with the Vehicles dept. Why don't Mahindra declare the car as 0 CC And they would be right in declaring it so.

[sgiitk]

Originally Posted by phamilyman

Meanwhile in Kolkata, reality is stranger than fiction:
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/c...w/58571704.cms
For the past five months, attempts to register electric cars at the Public Vehicles Department in Kolkata have been foiled by absurd arguments from transport officials that exemplify red tape in bureaucracy and government.Over a dozen electric cars purchased by customers, including five by Kolkata Police, are awaiting registration since January. Several customers are even paying EMI without being able to use the car they have bought.

It is Didiland where all logic goes out of the window. Her whim is law. Remember she was preceded by a few decades of Comrades.

[phamilyman]

Originally Posted by volkman10

For India, specific to EV, a lot need to be answered before jumping into introduction of EV's says Mercedes India Chief!

Attachment 1659959



link

Thats like driving while looking at the rear view mirror forever.

His point is valid, but only till you look at the recent solar auction tariffs. The key issue is lack of large scale affordable batteries - at that point the veritable floodgates will open!

[amey027]

This is my take on the EV situation in our country, slightly long but I would love to know what you guys think:

With the Model 3, Tesla has finally entered the affordable car market, at least in the USA. And its not just that the car is competetively priced, but the specifications are great too, in terms of the Range and Performance. However, closer to home, all we have is the Reva, which honestly is just a stupid car. Even as an EV enthusiast, I have no reason or inclination to buy that car. Mahindra, inspite of all the investment they have made and still are, into electrification have just got it wrong. Directly trying to enter the affordable market with the Reva has seriously backfired. The only people buying that car are the ones who already have one car, probably even two. You just cant buy it as a primary car.

With the government planning to replace the ICE vehicles with electrics by 2030, we should have had some serious manufacturer in the market by now, who's selling quality cars that aren't a compromise over your existing ICE car. But, we have none. Many people are hoping Tesla would come to India, but its not that easy or straightforward. It also will take some time, not like Tesla's gonna arrive tomorrow and the day after we will be seeing Model S/Xs zooming all around us. The solution has to come from within the country, be it an existing OEM/start-up or the government itself.

For starters, I strongly feel the focus should be on two/three wheelers and buses. Two/three wheelers are major pollution contributers as opposed to the common belief that its the bigger vehicles. Look at China, after replacing most of the ICE scooters with electrics, their pollution levels have drastically reduced. Someone living in Pune/Bangalore would agree on this, just look at the number of auto-rickshaws and motorcycles/scooters running on their roads and imagine if even half of those were electrics. The only issue is the price. No way, at the moment a Activa equivalent E-scooter can compete on price parameter. It will easily cost around 80-100k, putting it beyond the reach of most. This is where the Government comes into the frame. Like China, we need to define the performance of scooters. Having a scooter, which is going to be used 99.9% of the times inside the city, with a top speed of 80kmph makes no sense (this is what most 100-125cc scooters/motorcycles offer). If the Government can define this, it will make the job of all OEMs easier. With lowered performance, it wouldn't be difficult for OEMs to price an E-scooter at around 60k. Add to that, minimal maintenance costs and we are looking at something that would actually be great. As for charging, this can be incorporated in our workplaces, apartments etc. When I had gone to China, I saw every workplace has charging sockets in the parking lots, which is where everyone used to charge their scooters. The Chinese also live in buildings like us, and not all of them have parking lots, again similar to our situation and they have still managed well. No reason to believe we wouldn't either. Another option is portable batteries so that they could be charged in our homes. Parallely, the goverment can set up charging stations at various places inside the cities. Coming to buses, they are always parked in the depots, where it shouldn't be an issue to set up charging ports for overnight charging. And these ports could be powered by Solar panels. We receive enough sunlight in India to make solar charging possible.

Moving onto the cars, the foreign OEMs are not going to do it. They haven't done it in their home countries itself, no way they are bringing electrics to the Indian market. Either Mahindra scraps their exising business model or some start up comes up, just like Tesla did more than a decade ago. When I say that Mahindra got it wrong, I basically mean they shouldn't have started from the bottom. They should have followed the top to bottom model, basically starting our with a more expensive, high performance car and then slowly moving down the order. Currently the battery prices are too high to even attempt making an affordable car without compromising on performance and more importantly, Range. Why would I buy a car if I can't take it outside the city and it can't even go beyond 80kmph, just because it costs 5-6 lakh? Making a more expensive car without compromises makes more sense. Slowly as the price of batteries drop, scale down the car. Also, since the OEM has already invested in technology, the newer, smaller category car will be even cheaper to make as the OEM is only carry forwaring the technology and not creating a new one. (This is why Tesla was able to release Model X only 2.5 years after Model S). This also looks more sustainable. So, basically start out with a car that probably costs around 35 lakh, offers 300+ km Range and doesn't compromise on performance either. India's premium car market is growing fast and such a car would sell for sure. Also with such a Range on offer, the user doesn't have to worry about charging stations inside the city. The users would only need a charging port in their parking area (someone buying a 35 lakh car must definitely have a parking lot) and between cities incase they take the car for a trip. Then, take the next step and make a slighly affordable car as the battery price goes down. The next step would be to localise the battery production, which would help drop the prices further and this is where, the OEM enters the affordable market. It's definitely something that will take almost a decade to achieve, but slow and steady is what we need at the moment, also its the only possible thing to do.

As a car enthusiast, an EV lover (I stronly feel EVs are just better vehicles than our ICE powered ones) and an engineer, I really want to see a change happening in this country with respect to vehicle electrification.

[vamsi.kona]

A new battery technology, which is purported to be far better and efficient as well as safe from the current Lithium batteries, may certainly change and quicken the move towards EV. Interestingly, the person who invented Lithium batteries, John Goodenough, is also behind this new technology.

A brief description of the technology.

The new design uses a glass electrolyte instead of a liquid one, sodium instead of lithium, and may have three times as much energy density as lithium-ion batteries.

The fact that these batteries don’t get as hot, charge faster and are cheaper than lithium, are real pluses as well.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesco.../#4ba9c5e64e62