[frewper]

In all this choas and confusion as to what will happen in the future thing, what will exist and what will not, I think Jay Leno summed it up best more than 5 years ago, that ICE engines will at some future in time will exists as exotics. A very few will will exist and will have to be taken care of. Just like horses were the primary mode of transport more than a 100 years ago and was everywhere and now they are exotics and one has to spend a lot of money to own them. Just like that ICE cars will be very rare and exotic.

[srishiva]

Would that mean we can still use Hydrogen powered ICE cars ? Just to make sure we dont miss ICE
Hydrogen could still be used in some sectors like shipping, manufacturing and long haul trucking. About 15% of such needs are expected to hopefully use hydrogen.

[Manan9876]

Originally Posted by vredesbyrd

Essentially, my generation will never will never be allowed to enjoy nice engines unless we are insanely rich, right now. I understand that the environment takes precedence but here we are again. Yeah well, why don't they go ban other things instead? I think I just painted a huge target on my back.

I vehemently disagree with your point, this is the nature of progress, man up or get left behind.

[dileepcm]

Not just UK, most of the countries within EU have similar plans. Norway already got their EV sales more than 50%. Here is a Wiki link that talks about phasing out of diesel/petrol cars.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phas..._fuel_vehicles

[klgiridhar]

Originally Posted by srishiva

Would that mean we can still use Hydrogen powered ICE cars ? Just to make sure we dont miss ICE

At present, the hydrogen powered cars are in the form of fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) right. I don't think we will go the route of direct combustion of hydrogen in cylinders (HICEVs), because of the huge costs involved. We need high pressure gas injectors instead of liquid, strengthened connecting rods and many other adaptations required. Have seen a few prototypes from different companies trying it out but I don't see the technology coming to mass market road cars anytime soon. If the combustion is properly controlled, say in a way similar to GDI engines, it seems we will get a slight improvement in power when compared to traditional ICE engines, using controlled air-fuel mixtures and near zero emissions but the engines themselves will cost 5-6 times than traditional ICE engines. It is definitely an option to consider though .

Also, F1 can show a way to ICE enthusiasts. From 2025, they are adopting new regulations regarding fuels which are more sustainable and environment friendly. They are going carbon neutral by 2030 by adopting the use of 100% biofuels by then. Also, Renault and Honda are trying to adopt the high tech MGU-H & MGU-K systems to road cars. Mercedes and Ferrari already tried to an extent with La Ferrari and Mercedes-AMG One.

All we enthusiasts can do is wait and watch the developments taking place but I think the all-electric cars too will be incredibly fun to drive but in silence. The recent top gear review by Chris Harris of the Porsche Taycan boosted my confidence in electric cars being fun and engaging as well.

[SKC-auto]

Originally Posted by Shrayus_shirali

Rory Reid (former host of Top Gear) shares his opinion on the ban here -
http://Youtu.be/DGjFwZZpxS8

Every person who says they miss their ICE noise from their Wagon R's, Alto's, Seltos etc should watch this video.

The implication of this ban will start as early as 2025 when new ICE vehicle sales plummet as the future resale value would be next to zero. The speed at which EV tech is evolving is amazing.

2018- UK ban Ice in 2040
EV tech evolves now 2040 seems very far
2019- UK ban Ice in 2035
EV tech evolves now 2035 seems very far
2020-UK ban Ice in 2030
What's coming up next?

[Redex]

Hi,

I live in the U.K. and work part of the year in my son's garage. The ban on sales of new petrol and diesel cars from 2030 is going to happen. It will take a long time to have an effect on pollution, and may potentially make it worse !!! for a number of years. In the U.K. we do not have a set "life" for any type of vehicle. Emissions laws will prevent the use of certain types within city areas, but life will continue pretty much as normal outside those limits.

I actually have a 17 year old Ford Focus 1.8 TDDI 225,000km, a 23 year old Ford Explorer 4.0 litre V6 195,000km and a 23 year old Honda Valkyrie F6c 1500cc motorcycle.

All of the vehicles are in every day use averaging about 40,000km per year in total. I also have a fully restored 55 year old Series 2a Land Rover diesel (waiting for the end of petrol/diesel new car sales).

Cars in the U.K. typically last over 20 years, with most parts still available, many cars and vans run for at least 300,000kms. I use a Ford Tranist 2.4TD van for work and it is 14 years old and has now covered over 410,000 km on the original engine and is still going strong.

All that will happen for 20+ years (after 2030) is that many of the older more polluting vehicles will continue to be used instead of being replaced with newer models.

Regards Neil

[landcruiser123]

Good move, EU and China will lead the EV revolution with smaller, more affordable EVs and widespread charging infrastructure. Most European cities also have great public transport in large cities, making commutes easier.

Originally Posted by fhdowntheline

A better option would be to push for re-cycling incentives, i.e, incentivise scrapping of all vehicles above the age of 7 years..

We must understand that climate change is a global problem and affects everyone irrespective of their geographical borders. Incentivizing people to change cars has 2 major problems:

1. Where will the used cars go? How many of them can actually be sold in Africa? Indian cars are also of lower quality compared to European, American, and JDM to export it to Africa.

2. Manufacturing new cars consumes a lot of raw material & resources. With long global supply chains, manufacturing and transporting a new car is far worse compared to running a well-maintained old car.

3. Can people in India realistically afford new cars every 7 years?

Originally Posted by Redex

I actually have a 17 year old Ford Focus 1.8 TDDI 225,000km, a 23 year old Ford Explorer 4.0 litre V6 195,000km and a 23 year old Honda Valkyrie F6c 1500cc motorcycle.
All of the vehicles are in every day use averaging about 40,000km per year in total.....Cars in the U.K. typically last over 20 years, with most parts still available, many cars and vans run for at least 300,000kms. I use a Ford Tranist 2.4TD van for work and it is 14 years old and has now covered over 410,000 km on the original engine and is still going strong.....

UK can reduce the global impact of climate change by not mandating the replacement of these older machines which are running perfectly. Are these old vehicles you mentioned still subject to an MOT test every year or every 2 years?

[benvsben]

I wish our country, India, joined hands with UK's intent to ban ICE. 2030. Rory's rationale behind his acknowledgement is commendable. 90% of us need to change.

Of course, my signature has to change as well. Yes! From here on!

[vredesbyrd]

Originally Posted by Manan9876

I vehemently disagree with your point, this is the nature of progress, man up or get left behind.

And I vehemently disagree with your point. Not all progress is worth it's fruit, especially EVs. That beside, what do you mean by "man up"?!

[V.Narayan]

Originally Posted by vredesbyrd

And I vehemently disagree with your point. Not all progress is worth it's fruit, especially EVs. That beside, what do you mean by "man up"?!

I believe he means it is time to grow up and accept that only change is inevitable. The needs of society and the greater good of human kind outweigh our personal desires.

[vredesbyrd]

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

The needs of society and the greater good of human kind outweigh our personal desires.

I agree. However, UK has many other matters to be concerned about before blanket bans. Besides, there is sufficient statistical data to prove that both are bad. UK has already peaked out once at 73% of total power being supplied being green energy (unstable but it works). But coming to EVs, they may pollute less while being driven or charged but the initial damage to both the environment and the society is far too great. Only way to be transported without causing pollution would be horses, but I think 1 hp is not sufficient. UK should be more focused on Brexit transition (just a month more) and stabbings than banning vehicles left and right (reminds me of NGT). However, at the end of the day, we are nobody to teach them how to do things, we can just put forward our points and no more.

P.S: We are forgetting one very important factor in all this. Financial status. A lot of people drive old beaters and the road transport sector depends on fossil fuels. Affluent people and big transport corporations won't be affected by the bans but people at the end of the spectrum will get affected regardless.

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

I believe he means it is time to grow up and accept that only change is inevitable.

Kindly let Manan9876 explain that

[Redex]

Hi landcruiser123.

New cars in the U.K. need an annual test (MOT) within 3 years of being registered and then every year. All other cars first registered after 1980 (i.e. less than 40 years old, this age rolls on so next year it will be cars registered after 1981) need to be MOT tested every year.

Cars/motorcyles over 40 years old (historic vehicles) do not have an MOT or emissions test. Cars/motorcyles over 40 years old in private use do not have to pay road tax either.

One in 60 (1.5%) of every vehicle registered in the UK is older than 45 years (pre 1975). One in 5 cars (20%) in the U.K. is over 13 years old. The average age of a car in the U.K. has risen sharply from 8% to 20% in the last 10 years.

Petrol cars registered before 1975 and diesel cars registered before 1980 do not have a "metered" emissions test, just a visual test for smoke (at the discretion of the tester). Vehicles after those dates will have to meet an emissions standard that would represent the emissions when the car was new. Easily met if the vehicle is well maintained and adjusted correctly.

Current emissions standards are not applied retrospectively. Motorcyles, anything with 3 or less wheels, 2 strokes and hybrids of any age do not have an emissions test as part of the annual MOT. There are many other exemptions, vehicle types and variations, that are too numerous to mention here. There is a great deal of uncertainty within U.K. car owners as the rules keep changing so people are tending to hang on to older vehicles.

Batteries are not the answer, we will all end up with Hydrogen fuel cells. They are already used in trucks and buses around the world.
Regards Neil

[ankitsharma]

Why only cars ?

Though there are obvious benefits of cleaner vehicles but then if everyone starts charging their cars will it not increase the electricity generation footprint ?

To me this looks more like an automotive lobby trying to get things around for them because IC engines have reached a point where they can easily last for 10-15 years. Spare parts and maintenance has also become cheaper and there is lot less to earn from this model.

Probably electric cars with new consumables might have greater profit margins at least initially before it settles down.

[SKC-auto]

Originally Posted by Redex

Batteries are not the answer, we will all end up with Hydrogen fuel cells. They are already used in trucks and buses around the world.
Regards Neil

I understand that you do not believe in BEVs, is their any particular reason we all will end up with FCEV. Apart from fueling in 5mins I do not see any advantages. There are far more number of BEV trucks and Buses than FCEV. Currently Hydrogen is made from methane, even if green hydrogen is made from renewables it wastes 70% of such energy. Yeah, may be ships or large aircraft may use Hydrogen, I do not see hydrogen will have any role to play in surface transport.

Originally Posted by ankitsharma

if everyone starts charging their cars will it not increase the electricity generation footprint ?

To me this looks more like an automotive lobby trying to get things around for them because IC engines have reached a point where they can easily last for 10-15 years. Spare parts and maintenance has also become cheaper and there is lot less to earn from this model.
Probably electric cars with new consumables might have greater profit margins at least initially before it settles down.

We are shifting two industries here, one is the transport industry to EVs, the other is power generation to renewables. So we are not increasing electricity generation footprint.

You got the wrong way, for years auto lobbies existed to push more clean diesels, fleet wide fuel consumption increase.

There is a general agreement that most auto companies make their profit by selling engine oils, timing belts, clutches, brake pads which do not exist or used less in an EV, causing a huge potential loss of business.

Today's EVs last very long and can last more than 10-15 years, with battery warranty of 8 years. There are very few consumables compared to an ICE vehicle.

Add to that each company had to spend billions of $ to develop EV tech, developing new relationships with electric component suppliers, instead of selling you the same clean diesels which they have mastered year after year.