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Old 9th November 2017, 20:53   #16
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Re: Bob Lutz on the endgame of human-driven cars

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Originally Posted by Kamran Mohsin View Post
Machines will never replace a human being. The day they do that, forget driving, as a race, we are all doomed.
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I completely agree with this. Once we let machines take over our lives, forget driving, we are doomed as humans.
A little off topic, There is a new book from Robert Langdon called Origin. The theme talks about a new species that will over-run the human race. This species is nothing but 'technology'. In the book, he says that humans in the current form will not exist beyond another 50 years, by then technology would have completely taken over most aspects of human function giving rise to a humanoid species.

Of course it is a fiction novel from an author with a wild imagination . But I somehow felt it is something that could happen. Driverless cars would be just one small aspect of this.
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Old 10th November 2017, 09:20   #17
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Re: Bob Lutz on the endgame of human-driven cars

Right time to buy a big piece of land in a suburb. Will be useful for building a track and renting out "old-school" fossil fuel powered cars for rent to drive on the track in the future. People will be in virtual queues to book slots for getting the experience of driving a car. I would name the track "Sheer Driving Pleasure" because there would be no BMW to sue me
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Old 10th November 2017, 09:44   #18
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Insurance companies know that the biggest cause of automobile accidents are humans, both smart and dumb ones. And they are waiting for the time when driverless cars are practical, and then they will force the governments to make self-driving cars illegal or very expensive.
I doubt if insurance companies will be enthusiastic about driverless cars. They will have a massive volume drop in their business if there are lesser numbers of cars bought. Of course the number of claims will be lesser. Insurance companies will be out of business. The ideal situation for insurance companies are when people keep buying new cars but don't use it or damage it.

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This will take out 90% of the private cars out of circulation. And bikes, why do you need bikes when air conditioned cars can take you anywhere?
There are other opinions which say the number of cars on roads may actually increase. If travel becomes easier, then more people will travel for what is deemed unnecessary travel now; For example, senior citizens may want to visit banks again for what can be done online now just to kill sheer boredom. Or ask your driver-less car to pick kids from school (and show off your exclusivity).
Just like internet/Soc media just increases the useless communication(noise) because it is now so easy, autonomous cars will increase the useless travel.
It is difficult to predict human behavior during such quantum leaps of tech change.

Last edited by Samurai : 10th November 2017 at 10:00. Reason: B2B
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Old 10th November 2017, 10:03   #19
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I doubt if insurance companies will be enthusiastic about driverless cars. They will have a massive volume drop in their business if there are lesser numbers of cars bought.
When the ratio of claims per policy go down, they will profit. They can massively cut down on human claims inspectors since the entire accident data will be digitally available. In fact, the insurance company can run on skeleton staff since everything can be totally automated.

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For example, senior citizens may want to visit banks again for what can be done online now just to kill sheer boredom. Or ask your driver-less car to pick kids from school (and show off your exclusivity).
It doesn't have to be your driverless car. You don't need to own driverless cars. When cars can be shared, they can drastically come down in number.
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Old 10th November 2017, 10:28   #20
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Re: Bob Lutz on the endgame of human-driven cars

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And motorcycles ruled the roads happily ever after!
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Well! Not so lucky, looks like riding is also going away.
Probably not, because motorcycle can be robo driven, but not self driven.

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Note to self: It's time to buy that turbo petrol!
Indeed, maybe after 15 years we will look at them, smile, buy petrol at 1000% price and say "now, or never".

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I can already imagine the future Abarth Punto, a car that will have a random timer on it - to mimic breakdowns
Hilarious - just hilarious
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Old 10th November 2017, 12:19   #21
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Re: Bob Lutz on the endgame of human-driven cars

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When the ratio of claims per policy go down, they will profit. They can massively cut down on human claims inspectors since the entire accident data will be digitally available. In fact, the insurance company can run on skeleton staff since everything can be totally automated.

It doesn't have to be your driverless car. You don't need to own driverless cars. When cars can be shared, they can drastically come down in number.
When the number of policies go down, their topline goes down. Of course, they will get very high profit margins (lower claims) on the remaining number of policies. So a matter of opinion whether it is really good for them.

On second point, we don't need to own many things, but we still do it (iPhone X for example ). One might prefer to own a highly personalized vehicle, than sharing. Especially if it becomes very convenient. Imagine your autonomous car with a big screen TV and a mini-bar, that goes off to park itself, even many miles away, after dropping you off home.

Another problem with autonomous shared cars is - who will clean it? Can you ever be sure if the previous rider has not vomited in the car?
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Old 10th November 2017, 15:24   #22
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Re: Bob Lutz on the endgame of human-driven cars

So whatever happens in future (and I am sure nothing will change in India in next 5 years), I am happy I am living this generation. Revving internal combustion engine is not something guaranteed for future generations.

While reading the comments on said article, even people from US have their apprehensions about such a future (with all the infrastructure and road network they have in place). And the situation tends to become more serious for developing countries like us. Having said all this, we cannot deny the fact that we are headed for a future where autonomous driving is a norm. If not now, soon.
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Old 11th November 2017, 06:38   #23
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Re: Bob Lutz on the endgame of human-driven cars

Having spoken to some folks in the auto industry, I believe this change is coming faster than we expect. The technology for Level 5 self driving is likely to be mastered in 4-5 years. The challenge is getting the legal framework right - even the US puts up with 30000 deaths and 2 mm injuries caused by bad drivers every year. But if there are even 50 deaths and 500 injuries caused by autonomous cars getting it wrong, the car manufacturer would be heading for bankruptcy

While one can’t count on laws changing overnight (or even in decades - look at gun control), European governments are getting ready for the shift to fully autonomous electric cars - and like GSM technology that led to digital mobile adoption, the EU framework could spread worldwide.

Agree with Mr Narayan though - while the mass market car would be replaced by a self driving pod (albeit with superior safety features), the luxury car brands will continue to thrive - offering a choice between hotel suites on wheels, go anywhere products and even extreme acceleration and road hugging capabilities for those who seek thrills on public roads.

I feel sorry for kids of my son’s generation - he is 10 and probably will have just 4-5 years where he will be allowed to drive once he is 18. But the kids of the future won’t miss human driven cars - they will be seen as quaint anachronisms like the Victorias in South Bombay
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Old 12th November 2017, 22:50   #24
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What is the current mode of transport that has the most hi tech.? Aircraft's .? Why aren't they pilotless ? Is it because the tech isn't there ? I assume not. Then how come cars will then suddenly become driverless ? For sure the legalities of driver less vehicles are pretty strange but let's assume they figure something out, yet would passengers want a vehicle completely driven by a computer that could also be compromised and hacked ? In spite of cards and online banking cash still thrives because humans still don't trust or understand technology completely . I beg to differ that humans may never have the option of driving an autonomous car, way I see it would be vehicles that offer a host of super hi tech driver support features as well as option of autonomous driving on demand.
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Old 13th November 2017, 10:00   #25
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Re: Bob Lutz on the endgame of human-driven cars

This is the inevitable future. Sooner or later this is going to happen. I feel sad that we will not be able to enjoy cars and bikes as we do now. But sometimes, when I see a brainless moron driving irresponsibly, I think this may be better for everyone.

The future looks gloomy, not just because of the autonomous car.
Today, we automate driving because humans are likely to cause accidents and traffic jams. This will be followed with the restriction on many other human activities because humans are prone to errors. Then, humans will not be allowed to take any decisions at all because humans will be too slow and their decisions might be inaccurate because of their emotions. Finally, humans become useless because they will not be doing any productive work, they will be dependent on and consuming a lot of scarce resources; so humans might be done away with altogether.

I think this is inevitable when there are too many of us; I guess we are marching inexorably towards that point already.

Last edited by Enobarbus : 13th November 2017 at 10:04.
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Old 14th November 2017, 19:10   #26
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Re: Bob Lutz on the endgame of human-driven cars

I feel thinking about the situations presents a gloomier situation than an actual transition which will happen eventually. In about 20 years we will get to see the prescribed future that will unravel innovative marvels but i guess the human race will adapt to what's in store. There is an incredible ability which allows us to take in changes and adhere to newer standards of what a daily life may look like. It would be similar to the phase when we switched from landlines to Mobiles, buttons to touchscreens, cassettes to CDs to flash drives or from a film to SD cards. However in terms of cars it would be a worthwhile wait to see when a growl of an ICE makes way for a silent whirr as the new normal. Personally i find the constant interaction with the clutch and the gears, the most engaging part when i drive, so even an AMT / DSG / CVT will be blasphemous for me . But all eyes and ears to how the story unfolds from hereon. My 2 cents.
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Old 14th November 2017, 19:35   #27
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Re: Bob Lutz on the endgame of human-driven cars

I think the govt in India will hold on longer than others. Finally, when no one manufactures cars driven by humans, they will have to oblige. But the cost of infrastructure will be humongous.

We haven't been able to provide infrastructure for driven cars, much like we were not able to provide telephones but adapted to advanced wireless. But then how can cars take the same path, just flying ones ?

I am sure we would be driving but in enclosed private spaces like race tracks etc.
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Old 16th November 2017, 11:38   #28
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Re: Bob Lutz on the endgame of human-driven cars

First casualty are going to be truck drivers. First stage will be autonomous trucks travelling between the cities and humans taking over just before they enter the city.
Autonomous vehicles will be then running on special corridors along side the regular roads. Though this stage can be skipped given the amount of learning which has been going on in this field.

Hopefully the insurance industries get a fatal blow thanks to this new technology.
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Old 16th November 2017, 13:55   #29
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Re: Bob Lutz on the endgame of human-driven cars

We are now looking at modern Stone Age era! Certainly it hurts to know we will have to see that phase when modern modules highlighted in this analysis takes over. However, that’s mostly in the developed countries first and later move on to developing countries like India. This may happen when our kids start on planning to get their license to ride or drive.

We humans are screwing up things for ourselves and our future gen will not enjoy the amenities we once had! EV are next phase of automobiles but our kids will be deprived of experience what pure performance was once!

Apologies if I was
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Old 16th November 2017, 19:08   #30
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Re: Bob Lutz on the endgame of human-driven cars

My father always says that no matter how good a driver you are, you can only expect to be 50% safe on the road. You are always at the mercy of your fellow motorists. I agree with Bob Lutz on why driverless cars are the next iteration.

Look at how computers changed the world, or how automations improved manufacturing. Change is always unwelcomed but there will always be early adopters who can provide data for analytics. You can already see Tesla’s autopilot in full swing. Although Tesla calls it semi-autonomous technology, we all know the reasons behind it. Uber has a mini city to improve self-driving algorithms and machine learning. Hyperloop is another example which will improve both people and goods carriers in the future. These solutions are nearer to being deployed now and the time to deliver is constantly reducing.

We may have driver-less cars soon but I want to argue why future solutions are still on the ground. There are some disruptive start-ups in commercial flying industry. Do we still have to rely on pods for travelling? Can we not have flying saucers taking us to places? I grew up watching Jetsons and still hope we will one day fly to our destination ourselves.

Last edited by ramgkulkarni : 16th November 2017 at 19:09. Reason: typo
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