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Originally Posted by Steeroid Mercedes has become the EV leader in terms of technology. AND they know production. |
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Originally Posted by extreme_torque Three things:
1. Tesla as an electric vehicle brand is cooler than Mercedes and therefore the point number 2 follows. |
Perhaps Tesla
is a 'cooler' EV brand. But I don't think that "therefore" the rest of the points you make follow ... at all. Steeroid's comment about Mercedes' technological and production prowess stands on its own merit, especially because the link he shared acknowledges the fact that Tesla has a first-mover advantage, and that Mercedes will have to put in the legwork (and money) to catch up.
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Originally Posted by extreme_torque 2. If Mercedes wants to manufacture EV's at scale, where are they going to get all the batteries that they would need to do so. If they do not have their own gigafactory like Tesla, they are going to purchase them from the market. If they are going to purchase them from the market, it will be at the market cost and not at the manufacturing cost. (Remember also that they will not be the only manufacturer looking out for batteries and when the demand is more and supply is less, you are bound to pay significantly more) So to match Tesla either they will have to compromise on features and range to arrive at the same cost which is a no go or price them significantly higher than Tesla which is a no go as well since as a brand Tesla is cool and has the same if not more cachet. |
Your point though made clearly, has significant holes.
There are three major automotive battery suppliers in the market at the moment. LG Chem and Samsung SDI, headquartered in Korea, and Panasonic, with it's headquarters in Japan . The Gigafactory (great branding by the way) in Nevada produces batteries in collaboration/partnership with Panasonic. Tesla, does not own the battery I.P., Panasonic does. In fact, Panasonic has been increasing production at their other battery plants, and even tooling some of their old TV/display panel factories to enable battery production [1]. If other car manufacturers wish to buy Panasonic batteries, they'll sell them batteries.
Aside from that, the battery cells that Panasonic was selling to Tesla, were cylindrical cells. Though safer than prismatic cell batteries (like the ones used in cellphones), these cylindrical cells have obvious packaging (and somewhat related energy density handicaps). Panasonic itself, is starting to produce the newer prismatic cells ... in China [1]. Panasonic has also lost a few contracts to LG and Samsung recently. If I recall correctly, the I-Pace uses LG Chem batteries, but don't quote me on this.
While Tesla might be a 'cool' brand, Mercedes has deep pockets and can subsidize the R&D, production and sale of their EVs with their dino-juice powered vehicles (Toyota followed a similar route with the Prius too). So if Mercedes wants to buy batteries, in bulk, they'll be able to do so.
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Originally Posted by extreme_torque 3. Tesla is more software company than Mercedes ever can be or will be and I cannot state how big an advantage this will be. |
Going out on a limb, are we? Consider some of the alternatives at least. For example, Google (Alphabet?) with it's Waymo subsidiary is ahead of every one else as far as self-driving/autonomous vehicles are concerned [2]. And all signs point to the fact that Waymo might license this technology (Partnering with FCA/Jaguar etc.). In such a world, do you think Tesla has a significant software advantage?
Secondly, take a moment to go through the NTSB report [3] [4] on the Tesla that crashed into a divider. I've listed an excerpt here:
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- At 4 seconds prior to the crash, the Tesla was no longer following a lead vehicle.
- At 3 seconds prior to the crash and up to the time of impact with the crash attenuator, the Tesla’s speed increased from 62 to 70.8 mph, with no precrash braking or evasive steering movement detected.
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Tesla's AutoPilot system (terrible branding this time by the way, because it leads people into a false sense of safety) actually accelerated before an impact with the barrier without any driver input and the cruise control being active. I am sure you can come back and point me towards recalls/issues with other cars, but the point is, this is a software + sensor systems issue. Self-driving cars are a hard problem, but Tesla in this case might have succumbed to the Silicon Valley trope of moving fast and breaking things, with grave consequences.
I wouldn't be too quick to hand the trophy to Tesla, and to dismiss Mercedes (and other manufacturers) just yet.
[1]
Panasonic Batteries
[2]
Waymo road testing lead
[3]
NTSB Tesla Investigation
[4]
NPR summary of NTSB Investigation