re: Purosangue, Ferrari's new SUV now unveiled I don't think getting into SUVs is a particularly good move by Ferrari. A few thoughts on this from an article I recently wrote:
While not officially confirmed that Ferrari will be launching an SUV in 2022, rumored to be called the Purosangue, it is one of the world’s worst kept secrets. The funny thing is Ferrari spent years denying they would ever launch an SUV. The former CEO, Louis Camilleri, stated that he hated the word SUV and that it did not belong in the same sentence with Ferrari. Other Ferrari executives have stated that a SUV is not part of Ferrari’s DNA and the Enzo would roll over in his grave if it were to happen. Yet here we are. Poor Enzo is being set up to do a 180 and Ferrari’s DNA looks like it’s about to be permanently mutated.
Two questions come to mind; #1 why and #2 is it a good idea? I am sure that Ferrari will issue a very polished press release when they launch the Purosangue which will not call it a SUV and will explain why it is the right move for the Ferrari brand. However, I think the core reasons are quite basic, money and fear of losing out. On both counts, I believe Ferrari is being both shortsighted and misjudging the impact of their brand. It’s hard to argue against the fact that in the short term, a Ferrari SUV will boost the top line. While it might be margin dilutive, on a cash basis, it should add incremental profitability. However, there are easier ways for Ferrari to goose its financial results without having to put the essence of its DNA at risk.
With a near two year wait list, increasing production capacity to meet the excess demand on the existing portfolio would achieve much of the same outcome. Ferrari is also potentially losing a fair number of customers that simply don’t want to wait that long to get their car. Increasing production capacity so the wait list can be brought down to a more reasonable six months would not only increase sales for the few years it takes to ramp up production, but it would also give a long term boast as potential customers who would have walked away in the past, will now stay.
On the “fear of losing out” on the SUV craze, this is where I really believe Ferrari is making a mistake. They can afford to lose out. SUVs are not who they are, and they will detract Ferrari from being true to its core essence. Can Ferrari sell 5,000 SUVs a year? I am sure they can. Could Ferrari sell an additional 5,000 units of other models in the current portfolio if they really wanted to? I am sure they could do this too. While the SUV risks changing the core essence of the Ferrari brand, increasing production of the existing supercar portfolio has little to no risk. What’s driving this fear? Mostly what the Volkswagen Group has done with Bentley & Lamborghini and to a lesser extent Aston Martin. When I looked at the numbers though, the picture on if getting into SUVs is a huge success its not exactly clear cut. Also, it’s important to keep in mind that VW builds the Bentayga and Urus off of the same platform used for the Audi Q7 so the added development cost & complexity on the manufacturing side is fairly minimal.
As Bentley’s annual unit sales are similar to Ferraris, Bentley is an interesting case to look at. In 2014, the last year pre the Bentley Bentayga SUV launch, VW sold 11,033 Bentleys, in 2019 VW sold 12,430 Bentleys of which 5,232 were Bentaygas (I am using 2019 as it’s a cleaner base. 2020’s numbers are distorted by all the disruptions caused by Covid-19). That’s a 2.4% CAGR in terms of units and on a € basis the CAGR is only slightly better at 3.7%. It is not exactly impressive and hardly a major success. Net net, the vast majority of the Bentayga sales came from cannibalizing other Bentley models.
The Lamborghini numbers tell a bit of a different and much rosier story at first glance. I don’t believe it is as relevant to Ferrari given Lamborghinis much lower starting base and weaker brand equity. To give you an idea of the importance of Lamborghini in the VW Group, while even Seat and Skoda’s financial results are broken out, Lamborghini’s are just lumped in with Audi’s. In 2016, the last year prior to the Lamborghini Urus SUV launch, VW Group sold 3,579 Lamborghinis. In 2019, 8,664 Lamborghinis were sold. Of the 8,664 Lambos, 5,233 were Urus’ which would indicate that the Urus brough new buyers into the Lamborghini brand and the volume was fully incremental. The added volume would certainly have been a welcomed by the dealer network and taken Lamborghini from a borderline brand to relevant and more supportable. When looking at shorter term sales trends though, it seems that Urus sales have now flattened and will likely remain in the 5,000 units per annum range going forward. Lamborghini now has a situation where 60% of their sales are SUVs and the way this will change brand perception in the medium to long term is significant. For VW, turning Lamborghini into a SUV brand is probably not a major concern as long as that moves more units. What is also interesting is both Bentley and Lamborghini seem to have topped out at around 5,000 units for their respective SUVs.
So, is selling roughly 5,000 SUVs a year a good business decision for Ferrari? If they need to increase total volumes by 5,000 units, there are a lot of other ways to get there that do not put the brand at risk, add a huge amount of extra complexity to an already highly complex supply chain, and may cause poor Enzo to do back flips. On a purely profit basis, Ferrari will make more money on 500 next generation LaFerraris then it will on selling 5,000 Purosangues. Ferrari’s current market capitalization is $52 billion which means the market values Ferrari at $5.48 million for every car it produced in 2020. No other car company comes even remotely close (next closest is Tesla with a valuation at $1.2 million per car produced). That number will not hold if you throw 5,000 SUVs into the product mix. While SUVs may be the hot thing today, they might not be tomorrow and once launched, a Ferrari SUV is not something you can undo. Ferrari has done a great job of building shareholder value over the last half decade without an SUV and there is no reason it suddenly needs one now to continue to do so. |