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Old 11th June 2024, 21:27   #16
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Re: Elon Musk could leave Tesla if his $56 billion compensation package isn't approved

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Originally Posted by DriverLess View Post
I'm saying it will lose another $100B (reaction to the news, if he leaves). This is my prediction, I could be completely wrong.
With Musk in charge the shares could lose even more value. The problem with Tesla shares is that a lot of its values is/was based on numerous Musk predictions of future Tesla developments. He has a very poor track record of delivering on those promises. Every time his committed dates for something (eg autonomous cars) gets pushed out, the share price gets a massive hit.

Every time he goes of the wall on Twitter the Tesla share take a dumb. In the eyes of certain shareholders, Musk has become a long term liability. Better cut your losses now.

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Old 11th June 2024, 22:17   #17
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Re: Elon Musk could leave Tesla if his $56 billion compensation package isn't approved

Tesla share was/is always overvalued. It is fundamentally a car manufacturer , an industry with cyclical behaviour. But its stock rally was like a tech company. This is because Musk and his absurd/ambitious claims of "future tech" his company is working on.

His narratives, at first were polarizing between tech bros and non tech enthusiasts. After milking that cow, he turned to politically polarizing narratives. It is also getting dried up.

I'm sure he knows Tesla share price is going to consolidate even further as any car manufacturing company and is looking for an exit with good share valuation. But Musk exiting Tesla will create a rout on Tesla stock price and investors know it, so they won't be agreeing to the valuation Musk is asking for, as Tesla share price will never reach this level again without Musk.

Last edited by Earthroamer : 11th June 2024 at 22:18.
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Old 11th June 2024, 22:21   #18
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Re: Elon Musk could leave Tesla if his $56 billion compensation package isn't approved

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Originally Posted by Jeroen View Post
Look at the share price graph I shared. Under Musk in the couple last years the company lost more than double that!

Jeroen
Musk himself said in 2020 that the stock price is too high and that stopped the rally, with that one tweet it wiped out $14 Billion. Now imagine the wipe out if Musk leaves Tesla, only the short sellers would win.

He can go on and start another EV/Robotics company and it would crush Tesla shares even more. Tesla core group of designers and engineers at Tesla are loyal to Elon Musk. He can give them stock options in the new company and Tesla will be toast.

Last edited by suhaas307 : 12th June 2024 at 00:54. Reason: Spacing and formatting
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Old 11th June 2024, 22:35   #19
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Re: Elon Musk could leave Tesla if his $56 billion compensation package isn't approved

Elon Musk thinks big and focuses way ahead into the future defying current trends and norms. His style of leadership is highly controversial but he takes radical decisions and makes things work. He is no Saint. Media and data are the new oil and he is works it well to his advantage.

On June 12, 2014, Tesla announced that it will not initiate patent lawsuits against anyone who, in good faith, wants to use its technology. Tesla was created to accelerate the advent of sustainable transport, and this policy is intended to encourage the advancement of a common, rapidly-evolving platform for electric vehicles, thereby benefiting Tesla, other companies making electric vehicles, and the world. These guidelines provide further detail as to how we are implementing this policy.
https://www.tesla.com/legal/additional-resources

This pledge reflects Elon Musk's belief in fostering a collaborative environment for EV development. By allowing competitors to study and utilize Tesla's patents, the industry can benefit from. But then this pledge has a hidden agenda too.

Collective Volume Manufacturing: Increased competition can lead to higher production volumes, driving down costs for EVs and making them more accessible.

Standardization of Infrastructure: Collaborative development can lead to standardized charging infrastructure and interoperability between EVs, improving user experience.

This also helps to build necessary lobbies to influence govt policy making.

Tesla goes beyond just building electric cars. Unlike traditional vehicles, their cars are essentially software-defined transportation devices, receiving continuous updates and improving itself over time while collecting all the data around it using its cameras, microphones and array of sensors.

These connected cars allows them to collect vast amounts of data on user behavior and the driving environment. This data advantage could prove invaluable in the future of autonomous driving and transportation.

If Elon Musk moves on, Tesla loses this crazy visionary leadership. The hype that Tesla is today will also die down.

Apple is not innovating as much after Steve Jobs he did leave a successor to keep the ball rolling. The Tesla board doesn't seem fit to manage on its own without their master.

Last edited by suhaas307 : 12th June 2024 at 00:55. Reason: Spacing and formatting
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Old 12th June 2024, 00:14   #20
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Re: Elon Musk could leave Tesla if his $56 billion compensation package isn't approved

Slightly offtopic here. As an engineer myself I just can not digest the fact that people saying "Elon did this and did that". Sure he is a tough leader but he no longer codes or does any engineering work. Tesla is where it is today because of the engineers hard work.

With recent massive layoffs, I have seen stories from employees in YouTube and the work conditions are very unreasonable. You never know if you'll be there tomorrow. On top of this the pay package. This is a joke right?

Twitter was cool before, although with restrictions but with governance. Now it's a spam galore. You know how the feeds are becoming. It's dangerous.

Now recently with WWDC announcements and his tweets clearly shows, he has no idea what he is talking about. Did he even care to see the architecture section? Apple is known for privacy and they are open to security researchers and audits.

I used to admire Elon but now I think he is becoming a mad man. Tesla is where it is because of the talented people working there and it will remain the same even without Elon. Maybe better.
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Old 12th June 2024, 08:39   #21
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Re: Elon Musk could leave Tesla if his $56 billion compensation package isn't approved

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Originally Posted by MotoBlip View Post
OT but adding to this, he also seems to be throwing a complete tantrum online on X against OpenAI and Apple's collaboration.

Attachment 2615723

Elon Musk withdraws lawsuit against OpenAI.

Quote:
Elon Musk moved to dismiss his lawsuit accusing ChatGPT maker OpenAI and its CEO Sam Altman of abandoning the startup's original mission of developing artificial intelligence for the benefit of humanity and not for profit.
Attorneys for Musk asked the California state court to dismiss the lawsuit, originally filed in February, without giving a reason for the move
Musk dismissed his case without prejudice, which means he could refile it at another time.

Link:
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Old 12th June 2024, 09:36   #22
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Re: Elon Musk could leave Tesla if his $56 billion compensation package isn't approved

Musk or no Musk, Tesla in my opinion is going to be overrun by chinese cars and its only matter of time before that happens.

If I were a shareholder in the company i would have voted against this. It will be better to spend the same money on R&D and make the product more competetive instead of fulfilling individuals pocket. Share prices are all virtual money, so even if the prices fluctuate in short term that wont impact interest of the company in longer run provide its able to remain competetive.
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Old 12th June 2024, 09:39   #23
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Re: Elon Musk could leave Tesla if his $56 billion compensation package isn't approved

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Originally Posted by newenergy View Post
Slightly offtopic here. As an engineer myself I just can not digest the fact that people saying "Elon did this and did that". Sure he is a tough leader but he no longer codes or does any engineering work. Tesla is where it is today because of the engineers hard work.
Not really. As a hardcore engineer myself (I still code at 55), I have to disagree.

Think about Apple, it's best came because of Jobs, who was a mediocre engineer at best. Ultimately it is about business vision, and how the leader can inspire his company to achieve that vision.
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Old 12th June 2024, 10:59   #24
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Re: Elon Musk could leave Tesla if his $56 billion compensation package isn't approved

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Originally Posted by Samurai View Post
Not really. As a hardcore engineer myself (I still code at 55), I have to disagree.

Think about Apple, it's best came because of Jobs, who was a mediocre engineer at best. Ultimately it is about business vision, and how the leader can inspire his company to achieve that vision.
What I meant to say was, Musk (the engineer at heart) that we all admired is no longer the same. You can see his previous interviews and he seemed to understand engineering and get his hands dirty but now he is just a meme lord. He seeks only attention and nothing else. Twitter nowadays is just another platform that he controls at will. Heck, I would even say he spends more time on Twitter doing trolling than spend any meaningful time at Tesla.

Coming to Apple, yes no one can be like Jobs but Apple still has that "care" to design in everything they do. I would say they are still kicking. You can say the same for Disney too which still has the essence of Walt. I know no one can replicate a person but the core principles are still there.

Now, will I miss anything if Musk leaves his companies? No. The actual workforce behind will make sure they keep innovating.

Coming to code, I admire that you still code. For some of us, coding is not by what our job wants us to do but it's the passion. I hope I can follow you and still code at that age. For me it's everything.
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Old 12th June 2024, 16:14   #25
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Re: Elon Musk could leave Tesla if his $56 billion compensation package isn't approved

IMO, this is just one more PR equivalent stunt from all parties involved.

Let us keep it simple,
1. The company & the individual, at some point of time in history (2018 to be precise), agreed on a mechanism for compensation - largely in shares.
2. It seems the compensation is for 10 years and not per annum.
3. They must've definitely done a ridiculously favourable (in favour of Elon) formula at that point of time.

The Math:
He was offered 304 mn.shares at $23.33 each in 2018, on achieving certain milestones. The share price in 2018 was in the $20 - 25 range (not exact).

The share price is $170 now, therefore the $50 bn.number.
In 2022, the share price was in the $380 range. At those values, it would have crossed $100 bn.

Let us say share price falls to $100, it will be worth $30bn.

The amount seems ridiculous today as its share price has moved. It could have gone any other way, further up or down. This can be largely attributed to the crazy share price movement, see image below.
Elon Musk could leave Tesla if his  billion compensation package isn't approved-tesla-share-price.png
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Old 12th June 2024, 19:47   #26
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Re: Elon Musk could leave Tesla if his $56 billion compensation package isn't approved

Tesla stock is quite overvalued for the revenue and profit it generates. The product pipeline has been almost stagnant and whatever new they tried (cyber truck) has failed miserably. The compensation he is asking (multiple years profit of the entire company) is day light robbery by all means and there is no precedent to such compensation. He made money not only as a shareholder but also as an employee ripping other shareholders as well. To say Tesla would be nothing without Musk itself shows he has failed as a CEO to perform his duties correctly and has put company in a position that they have to always lean on him. I see it as quick sand and if the compensation is approved the company and its shareholders are in huge trouble. It's right time to have Tesla run by professionals instead of Musk who is too distracted to even deserve 1% of the quoted pay.
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Old 13th June 2024, 00:51   #27
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Re: Elon Musk could leave Tesla if his $56 billion compensation package isn't approved

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Originally Posted by ghtg1 View Post
Tesla stock is quite overvalued for the revenue and profit it generates. The product pipeline has been almost stagnant and whatever new they tried (cyber truck) has failed miserably. The compensation he is asking (multiple years profit of the entire company) is day light robbery by all means and there is no precedent to such compensation. He made money not only as a shareholder but also as an employee ripping other shareholders as well. To say Tesla would be nothing without Musk itself shows he has failed as a CEO to perform his duties correctly and has put company in a position that they have to always lean on him. I see it as quick sand and if the compensation is approved the company and its shareholders are in huge trouble. It's right time to have Tesla run by professionals instead of Musk who is too distracted to even deserve 1% of the quoted pay.

You maybe in the wrong -

https://twitter.com/MarioNawfal/stat...83697069043730

Quote:
ELON:

"They have been the most accurate predictors of the value of Tesla."

WOOD:

"We believe that Tesla will launch a robotaxi service within the next two years, and that the probability Tesla fails to launch a robotaxi service within five years is di minimis.

We assume that Optimus will have minimal impact on our price target.

ARK’s updated open-source Tesla model yields an expected value of $2,600 per share in 2029.

The bull and bear cases are approximately $3,100 and $2,000 per share.”

Source: 𝕏
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Old 13th June 2024, 04:03   #28
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Re: Elon Musk could leave Tesla if his $56 billion compensation package isn't approved

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Originally Posted by Samurai View Post
Think about Apple, it's best came because of Jobs, who was a mediocre engineer at best. Ultimately it is about business vision, and how the leader can inspire his company to achieve that vision.
He wasn't an engineer at all. You could call him a technologist maybe, a visionary surely. Very good at hiring great engineers and telling them what to do.

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Originally Posted by Captain Slow View Post
Cathie Wood couldn't even beat the Nasdaq 100 - her trailing 10 year performance is 1/3rd of the index. I wouldn't rely on her expertise, or anyone else who can't correctly spell de minimis. TSLA is at a 45 P/E, overheated if you factor in that super-dominant tech cos like Meta, Apple, Google, Microsoft are all between 30 and 38. Tesla is also running scared of Chinese EV makers - notice EM's statements about needing govt protection to compete with them - and has a horrible track record of timely delivery.

Elon is a brilliant first-principles engineer, and obsessive about many things. That does not make him almight, or always right. He certainly does not appear to be doing Tesla stock any favours over the last few quarters. This payout may be perfectly legal, but I cringe to think that someone who mercilessly lays off thousands and destroys shareholder value should be rewarded like this.
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Old 13th June 2024, 07:57   #29
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Re: Elon Musk could leave Tesla if his $56 billion compensation package isn't approved

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Originally Posted by v1p3r View Post
He wasn't an engineer at all. You could call him a technologist maybe, a visionary surely. Very good at hiring great engineers and telling them what to do.
I was referring to his two stints at Atari, although he outsourced that work to Woz.

Quote:
Originally Posted by newenergy View Post
Now, will I miss anything if Musk leaves his companies? No. The actual workforce behind will make sure they keep innovating.
In my long experience, innovation doesn't happen in a vacuum. As the old saying goes, necessity is the mother of invention. It is very true. You need someone to create that necessity in a highly concentrated manner. It is very hard to explain this concept, it has to be experienced. But folks like Edison, Jobs, Musk & Gates were very good at doing it, while driving their employees up the wall and over it. It takes a kind of ruthlessness that most of us never have, thank god. Although you would notice some current startup founders trying to emulate it, like Bhavish.

Quote:
Originally Posted by newenergy View Post
I hope I can follow you and still code at that age. For me it's everything.
Getting an Indian employer to let you code after 30 is a very hard task. For that you have to continuously up your game, and work at a level none of the younger ones can match. It is possible, but not easy.

Last edited by Samurai : 13th June 2024 at 09:14.
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Old 13th June 2024, 15:13   #30
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Re: Elon Musk could leave Tesla if his $56 billion compensation package isn't approved

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Originally Posted by RahulNagaraj View Post
Denholm stated, "Elon is not a typical executive, and Tesla is not a typical company." He further added, "So, the typical way in which companies compensate key executives is not going to drive results for Tesla. Motivating someone like Elon requires something different."
But surprisingly, the manner in which he wishes to motivate himself is quite ordinarily petty (monetary motivation).

What about his motivation to change the world, improve mankind and other lofty goals worthy of constant front page coverage by the media?

Looks like he hasn't progressed up on the Maslow's hierarchy and still stuck on the bottom layer:

Last edited by alpha1 : 13th June 2024 at 15:19.
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