[farhadtarapore]

Originally Posted by sri_tesla

There can be minimum Rs 20,000 in petrol savings per year with Ather 450 compared to petrol scooters.

True, but you're not factoring in the price of replacing the battery once it starts showing wear and tear. The battery is actually a recurring cost - not sure, maybe every 3 years.

[sri_tesla]

Originally Posted by farhadtarapore

True, but you're not factoring in the price of replacing the battery once it starts showing wear and tear. The battery is actually a recurring cost - not sure, maybe every 3 years.

Why does battery need to be replaced every 3 years? There are many electric cars which are running for more than 3 years and lakhs of kms.

[aim120]

Battery cost is reoccurring but at end of 3 years doesn't mean battery is dead. It depends on the number of charge discharge cycles you do.
Ather energy mostly is using high discharge type 18650 batteries based on my guess work by knowing their battery voltage and killowatt and shape and early rendering, I can say that they use about 224 18650 batteries (14 in series and 4 in parallel/pack and they have 4 such packs)

A typical high discharge INR type 18650 has a charge discharge cycles of around 300 to 500 cycles meaning they are not dead after that, its just their life would have dropped to say 60%.
Ather says they give a 3 year warranty meaning they would replace the battery if the capacity drops below 70%.
Battery replacement cost should be 30k, going by the prices of alibaba. But no idea what ather would price them at.

[avisidhu]

Ather should be proactive in addressing other customer segments right away. There must be enough delivery services in bangalore in the organised sector, and the value proposition would be starkly clear to them. Get bulk deals even if at discounted prices, and let these scooters zip across the city from day 1 so that visibility and brand awareness is established.

A lot of companies have burnt their fingers trying to explain the value proposition to retail customers, who are typically risk averse. Besides, companies also look to leverage any green initiatives they can easily adopt and this could be a low hanging fruit for them.

[A M]

While I wish Ather becomes the Tesla of two-wheelers, I currently see their market to be very limited in the individual consumer segment in India. They could do well in Europe and specifically in cities like London where congestion tax and green tax are applicable to anything using fossil fuels. They could be an excellent alternative to fleet owners like Swiggys, Zomatos, and Dominos of the world. Saves them money on the fuel up front and maintenance/replacement of battery could be recovered through the tax benefits on depreciation/maintenance costs. At the outset, it makes for a better business case for fleet owners. Also, as avisidhu already mentioned, this would also generate brand awareness among the people.

A request to Ather, please make a clear distinction between the models for retail customers and fleet customers for avoiding being categorized. This may do more harm than good in the long run.

[sri_tesla]

More info about Ather production (Courtesy: Reuters):

• Ather is expecting to sell 2,000 scooters by August and sell over 100,000 in the next 2 years.

• They will release a mass-market (cheaper?) in two years.

I think this is the right approach and similar to what Tesla did with Roadster, Model S/X and now more affordable Model 3. Even if they expand quickly, they may struggle to meet demand and face problems in servicing them. Being a startup they also limitations with capital at hand. At this stage they are targeting select cities and people who can afford.

Reuters article:
https://in.reuters.com/article/ather...-idINKCN1J11QZ

[CrAzY dRiVeR]

Official advertisement -

https://youtu.be/69KHOWrMwLY

[hemanth.anand]

I have pre-booked the Ather 450 yesterday by paying the 5000 fully refundable booking amount. I've been informed that it will be delivered in the Oct-Dec batch. I'm not in a great hurry either. The Ather 450 will replace my wife's Vespa S125 which will in turn replace my father's Activa 3G which will be sold after the Ather arrives. I plan to take the test ride in the coming days. Looking forward...

[Rajeevraj]

All the reviews seem very impressive. Looks very promising-especially those performance numbers. That torque is more than my Pulsar 200NS and that too available from start.

Actually tempted to go book one and sell off the NS which anyways is doing only commuter duties. More practical and looks to be decent fun to ride.

[Bhatman510]

Watching the MotoBeam video show cases the quality of the chassis, motor, casted components and the battery. I gotta say wow.

It looks impressive for an Indian made vehicle. Bike on network, Level 2 style charger. Its ticking all the proper marks for a EV scoot. Too bad pricing does not equate into USD standards (2,500 USD scoot would be awesome!)

Now if they can actually make 2,000 units by end of Aug. That means there building about 600 units per month....This is going to be a very important time for them to ramp the line, maintain some sort of cadence to build and keep chugging along till the end of the year...

[hemanth.anand]

Originally Posted by Bhatman510

Too bad pricing does not equate into USD standards (2,500 USD scoot would be awesome!)

Excuse me if I got something wrong, but the 2 variants are priced at around 1600 and 1800 USD which is much less than the 2500 USD, isn't it?

[Bhatman510]

Originally Posted by hemanth.anand

Excuse me if I got something wrong, but the 2 variants are priced at around 1600 and 1800 USD which is much less than the 2500 USD, isn't it?

Nope, your right, I cant do currency math early in the morning....also figuring the extra taxes and road fees here in the USA a scooter like this would probably end up being priced higher than 2500

[Bh.P]

Originally Posted by sri_tesla

Comparison between Ather 450 and 125cc petrol scooters like Activa 125, Suzuki Access: Assuming daily usage of 40 KM:

Petrol 125 cc scooter: On-road price: Rs 75,000
Monthly usage = 1200 KM
Mileage = 45 KM (Being generous. Real world mileage is around 40 KM or even less in city traffic).
Total petrol per month = 26.66 liters
Total fuel cost per month = 26.66 * 80 = Rs 2,133
Fuel cost per year = 12 * 2133 = Rs 25,600

Ather 450: On-road price: Rs 125,000 (~ Rs 50,000 higher than petrol one)
Monthly usage = 1200 KM
Range = 75 KM per charge of 2.4 kWh battery => 2.4 units per 75 KM
Electricity Cost per month = 1200/75 = 16 * 2.4 = 38.4 units per month = ~ Rs 308 (assuming Rs 8 per unit).
Electricity cost per year = 12 x 308 = Rs 3696

There can be minimum Rs 20,000 in petrol savings per year with Ather 450 compared to petrol scooters.

Ather is providing one year free subscription for Ather one plan which takes care of electricity costs at Ather grid and at home also. It includes unlimited charging, periodic maintenance, roadside assistance etc... After one year It will be @ Rs 700 per month.

Few points on these calculations:

1. We need to consider the monthly cost for Ather as 700 and not 308. If we don't sign up for the package, we may not get regular service/support, OTA updates etc. At the same time, add service costs to the conventional scooter.

2. I am not sure 1200 kms per month is a normal office-goer usage. It may be true for a delivery boy, but not for the average user. For a normal user with a 22 day work month, this translates to over 50 kms per day.

3. Ather founders in one of the press statements mentioned they expect users to break even in 50,000 kms. That sounds more like it. Which, even with 1200 km/month would take 3-4 years, much higher for the average user, say 5+ years.

Include the hefty battery replacement costs (if not 3 years, say even after 5 years), the recovery goes even beyond 5 years. Not a very rosy proposition. I don't see lot of people lining up to buy this. Not sure how they have set a target of 1,00,000 scooters over the next 2 years.

Maybe they should look at cutting the price by offering lesser features. I am sure, there would be a lot of people willing to use the scooter without the large display, the reverse crawl for parking scenarios, mobile connectivity etc, provided that bridges the gap between the conventional scooter and this one.

[avisidhu]

Originally Posted by Bh.P

....

2. I am not sure 1200 kms per month is a normal office-goer usage. It may be true for a delivery boy, but not for the average user. For a normal user with a 22 day work month, this translates to over 50 kms per day.
....

Precisely, and hence the argument some of us are making here that Ather would be better served by by trying its luck in other segments, or even exports. The case of Honda Bikes in US is pertinent here, which arrived expecting to sell big bikes but people were enamored by the small engine commuters instead, and they had to turn their entire sales strategy on its head.

The economics is frankly on a shaky ground here, and people still remember the horror stories thanks to initial wave of cheap electric scooters and bikes. It would be a crying shame for such a world class product to not succeed just because of product positioning.

[aim120]

Originally Posted by Bh.P

Few points on these calculations:

1. We need to consider the monthly cost for Ather as 700 and not 308. If we don't sign up for the package, we may not get regular service/support, OTA updates etc. At the same time, add service costs to the conventional scooter.

Maybe they should look at cutting the price by offering lesser features. I am sure, there would be a lot of people willing to use the scooter without the large display, the reverse crawl for parking scenarios, mobile connectivity etc, provided that bridges the gap between the conventional scooter and this one.

I don't think they said anywhere that they will deny service and updates without paying 700.

As far as cutting cost removing the lcd/tablet with mobile connecticity which is ip65 rated, it can at most cut cost down by max 3 to 5k. The other features like reverse won't cost them a penny, since any brushless capable ESC can do it. They can also cut cost by using incandescent bulb but on a electric vehicle thats blasphemy.

Their chassis design is far far advanced then any other scooter on the market, it's like a monocoque. This is where they can reduce bulk of the cost. Steel is still cheaper then aluminium but heavier. Apart from that unless battery cells are made cheaply in India, it will be expensive due to freight and customs. So are the rare earth magnets being imported and again hit with duties.

We do have chinese rebadged lithium battery powered scooter with 50km/hr speed with a claimed 80km+ range selling for about 90k on road. I bet they are using some cheap unknown make batteries.

May be they can price it a bit cheaper 99.9k On road would have been a better headline.

State goverment should also do it's bit like removing road tax. For example correct me if I am wrong but AP goverment did do that for Isuzu vehicles sold in AP.