[GutsyGibbon]

Originally Posted by farhadtarapore

True, but you're not factoring in the price of replacing the battery once it starts showing wear and tear. The battery is actually a recurring cost - not sure, maybe every 3 years.

Lithium ion batteries have gotten better and the battery management software optimizes the use of the individual cells very well. Tesla provides a 8 year 120k mile warranty on the Model 3.
Replacement costs of batteries come down too. Replacing the battery on a Prius used to be $6000 15 years back. Now, one can do it for $600.

In my opinion, the key factors that would determine success would be

• Charge time
• Vampire drain
• Home charging stations/cost
• Ability to charge during off peak hours at discount
• Real world range
• Reliability/bad press for Lithium battery fires

In the 2 months of owning an EV, I have not been to the supercharger even once. One should consider the Time value of money, if you are to wait at the charging station(even if its free). Then there is the cost of doing something while you wait. If the wait is more than an hour (including waiting for an open slot) it would be a tough sell.

[sri_tesla]

In my earlier usage calculation post, I choose 1200 KM as monthly usage. More proper metric would be how much it costs per KM. I am taking Bangalore as example where Ather is currently available.

Regular 125 cc scooter:
Mileage is ~40KM per liter (based on feedback on few friends who use Activa and Suzuki access in city).
Petrol price is around Rs ~80.
So price per KM is Rs 2. If mileage is 45 kmpl, then price per KM is Rs 1.77

Ather 450:
Range per charge is 60 KM to 75 KM (eco mode).
Electricity charges in Bangalore per unit is Rs 7.3 (for people in highest slab). Battery capacity of Ather 450 is 2.4kWh means full charge cost is 17.52 (2.4 * 7.3).
Price per KM is Rs 0.29 for normal mode and Rs 0.23 for eco mode.

So, Ather 450 is 6 times cheaper in worst case and more than 8 times cheaper in best case.

Regarding price and market position, I believe they are following the Tesla market strategy, wherein build high end model, establish the brand and showcase electric vehicle advantages and then move to cheaper model over time using the money from high end models.

I am not sure where Ather is sourcing the batteries from, but Li-Ion batteries last very long and they are getting better each year. There are Teslas which did lakhs of miles in short time by some fleet owners and they are still going strong and battery degradation is also low (~10%) despite multiple times being charged daily.

https://twitter.com/tesloop/status/1002641861842853888

[Bh.P]

Originally Posted by aim120

Their chassis design is far far advanced then any other scooter on the market, it's like a monocoque. This is where they can reduce bulk of the cost. Steel is still cheaper then aluminum but heavier.

Yes, I understand they heavily invested in a new chassis design, with the main aim of reducing weight. But the scooter weights 128 kilos. A normal scooter in this category weighs between 100 and 105 kgs. So, where is the excess weight coming from despite investing so heavily on a new design and using aluminum.

I mean, take a scooty zest which weighs 97 kilos, remove the engine and other related components, put in the battery and motor+belt, would it weigh more than 128 kilos? I doubt. One may say do not compare with a scooty zest/activa, but the average buyer will.

Originally Posted by aim120

We do have chinese rebadged lithium battery powered scooter with 50km/hr speed with a claimed 80km+ range selling for about 90k on road. I bet they are using some cheap unknown make batteries.

I am not sure the average buyer will compare this with the cheap chinese e-scooters. Most will look at if this scooter can replace the sturdy activa/jupiter. I think it can, but then is the additional cost justified. Unless I am a heavy user, no.

Cutting edge and all is fine, you and me as a tbhp enthusiast may buy it. But the average buyer will not. e-vehicles will not sell because they are green or cutting edge. They will sell only when they make economic sense to the masses. That may be unfortunate, but that is the truth. Ather wants to sell 100K scooters in two years? They better understand this truth.

[sri_tesla]

Originally Posted by Bh.P

Yes, I understand they heavily invested in a new chassis design, with the main aim of reducing weight. But the scooter weights 128 kilos. A normal scooter in this category weighs between 100 and 105 kgs. So, where is the excess weight coming from despite investing so heavily on a new design and using aluminum.

I mean, take a scooty zest which weighs 97 kilos, remove the engine and other related components, put in the battery and motor+belt, would it weigh more than 128 kilos? I doubt. One may say do not compare with a scooty zest/activa, but the average buyer will.


I am not sure the average buyer will compare this with the cheap chinese e-scooters. Most will look at if this scooter can replace the sturdy activa/jupiter. I think it can, but then is the additional cost justified. Unless I am a heavy user, no.

Cutting edge and all is fine, you and me as a tbhp enthusiast may buy it. But the average buyer will not. e-vehicles will not sell because they are green or cutting edge. They will sell only when they make economic sense to the masses. That may be unfortunate, but that is the truth. Ather wants to sell 100K scooters in two years? They better understand this truth.

Where did you get the weight of 128 kilos from? Ather official spec sheet mentions its 118 kgs (see below attachment for same). TVS ntorq weighs 116.1 kgs while Vespa weighs 114 kgs. So its not far from the comparable 125cc scooters.

Also, why do you think 100K in 2 years a big number? That's approximately 4000 scooters per month. In May, 2018 alone total two-wheeler sales is 18 lakhs and growing at 10%. Piaggio which is closest competitor price wise is selling approximately 5 to 6K per month. They are planning more cheaper versions in 2-3 years by which time battery costs also will reduce further.

[ksameer1234]

Originally Posted by Bh.P

3. Ather founders in one of the press statements mentioned they expect users to break even in 50,000 kms. That sounds more like it. Which, even with 1200 km/month would take 3-4 years, much higher for the average user, say 5+ years.

Include the hefty battery replacement costs (if not 3 years, say even after 5 years), the recovery goes even beyond 5 years. Not a very rosy proposition. I don't see lot of people lining up to buy this. Not sure how they have set a target of 1,00,000 scooters over the next 2 years.

I did quick calculations for my 30 km daily commute to office and even with optimistic 45 kpl mileage, I am spending 15k a year on fuel at current price of petrol. With Ather, I can hope to save as much as 12k a year on fuel expenses considering electricity at INR 10 per kWh. If one considers the price of battery to be 30k (there should be some residual value in the old battery) and replacement every 3 years, there is a saving of 6k. Not including the cost of engine oil and other consumables which would add at least 1k per year. I see the breakeven being achieved much earlier in present scenario.

[aim120]

Originally Posted by Bh.P

Yes, I understand they heavily invested in a new chassis design, with the main aim of reducing weight. But the scooter weights 128 kilos. A normal scooter in this category weighs between 100 and 105 kgs. So, where is the excess weight coming from despite investing so heavily on a new design and using aluminum.

I mean, take a scooty zest which weighs 97 kilos, remove the engine and other related components, put in the battery and motor+belt, would it weigh more than 128 kilos? I doubt. One may say do not compare with a scooty zest/activa, but the average buyer will.

As sri_tesla said the weight is 118, do note when you put fuel the weight goes even higher.
Other low end chinese rebadged or even indian made hero electric scooters all have a not so strong chassis, the steel tubes appear to be thinner then what you find in say a Honda or a suzuki.
I believe they had do design such a chassis because to make it water proof, in all other electric scooters you can literally see the battery from out side. Also making the battery and ESC a integral part of the chassis makes it that much harder to theft.

Originally Posted by Bh.P

I am not sure the average buyer will compare this with the cheap chinese e-scooters. Most will look at if this scooter can replace the sturdy activa/jupiter. I think it can, but then is the additional cost justified. Unless I am a heavy user, no.

Cutting edge and all is fine, you and me as a tbhp enthusiast may buy it. But the average buyer will not. e-vehicles will not sell because they are green or cutting edge. They will sell only when they make economic sense to the masses. That may be unfortunate, but that is the truth. Ather wants to sell 100K scooters in two years? They better understand this truth.

If people are willing to pay so much for a vespa or a royal enfield bikes which basically have near zero R&D over the decades.
This is cutting edge of scooter design in India so it will find buyers who are a enthusiast .

But you are right, the majority are different. People that I know who drive a activa are perfectly fine for paying 75k+ for a stupid phone every year or so but they are unwilling to pay for something like a electric scooter or put Solar panels which in both case will help go green and reduce their expenditure in the long run.

[ashokrajagopal]

In my opinion, they priced it about 15k higher.

The point is, breaking even in at least 5 years is possible only for the medium to heavy user. I have a 50km run per day, but 75km range is too risky for me. It is not about the availability of the charging points, its the time factor.
It puzzles me why they did not try out a swapping option also considering the fact that they had a custom built battery and their own charging network.

About the 2000 or so units per month -- we have to factor in the fact that they are opening only in Bangalore for now and later in Pune and Chennai. Meaning they are actually expecting 2000 units sold in Bangalore per month is very difficult considering the price.

[Bh.P]

Originally Posted by sri_tesla

Where did you get the weight of 128 kilos from? Ather official spec sheet mentions its 118 kgs

I think I got 128 from one of the review videos posted earlier in this thread. But if the spec sheet says 118, that is what it is. The battery is 19kgs. So the scooter without batter is 99 kgs.

Originally Posted by sri_tesla

Also, why do you think 100K in 2 years a big number? That's approximately 4000 scooters per month.

Vespa has a history. People believe in the brand. Buying a Vespa is not treading in the unknown. So more people will be willing to spend on it. The average buyer will not know what is the reliability of an Ather, yet. Which is why I think they can not ramp up to 4-5K monthly sales so soon, with their current pricing. They either need to have reliability or pricing on their side. They have neither.

I hope I am wrong. I want them to succeed for the future of electric mobility. I am in the market for a two wheeler, and none of the current electric scooters are worth a try. Shame, when the government talks of all electric sales by 2030. My current usage is <50 km a week. So Ather does not make sense for me. When it does, I will line up.

Originally Posted by ksameer1234

I did quick calculations for my 30 km daily commute to office and even with optimistic 45 kpl mileage, I am spending 15k a year on fuel at current price of petrol. With Ather, I can hope to save as much as 12k a year on fuel expenses considering electricity at INR 10 per kWh. If one considers the price of battery to be 30k (there should be some residual value in the old battery) and replacement every 3 years, there is a saving of 6k. Not including the cost of engine oil and other consumables which would add at least 1k per year. I see the breakeven being achieved much earlier in present scenario.

Which scooter are you comparing with. I am comparing with an average 125 CC scooter, say the N-Torq, which costs around 75K. So we are paying around 35K more for a S340.
If you consider 30K for a battery in 5 years, that is 6K per year shaved off of your savings of 12K. So 6K savings a year, takes the payback period to 6 years, with a daily usage of 30kms.

But again, this is not just math. People going for this will not got only based on economics. They will go with their heart. But how many such people are there is the question.

[Funny]

I don't see how this will be successful at the current price tag. It costs almost double when compared to 110cc petrol scoots. The battery being enclosed in the foot-board also is a bit of concern considering the huge speed-breakers in Bangalore. To be successful, it needs support from the Government. If the road tax is removed and it can be purchased using low-cost/no-cost EMI then it will make a lot of sense. That way general public will at-least consider buying one due to the extra benefits being offered. Majority of the people are less bothered about the so called 'Green' initiatives and its advantages, all they want is something which is affordable and does the commuting duty without much fuss.

[sri_tesla]

Originally Posted by Funny

To be successful, it needs support from the Government. If the road tax is removed and it can be purchased using low-cost/no-cost EMI then it will make a lot of sense. That way general public will at-least consider buying one due to the extra benefits being offered.

The price of Rs 1.1 lakh (for 340 model) and Rs 1.25 lakh (for 450 model), includes road tax, insurance and registration fee.

[Funny]

Originally Posted by sri_tesla

The price of Rs 1.1 lakh (for 340 model) and Rs 1.25 lakh (for 450 model), includes road tax, insurance and registration fee.

Sir, I am aware of that. It is still costly for most of the people. If the government supports the 'Green' initiative and removes the road-tax component and offers attractive finance schemes, it would make a lot of sense, at-least for me it would. Less than 1 lac for 340 and 1.1 lac for 450 (on-road) looks decent.

[hemanth.anand]

Originally Posted by Funny

I don't see how this will be successful at the current price tag. It costs almost double when compared to 110cc petrol scoots

It will not cut into Mass market scooters like the Activa for example. It will cut into premium/performance scooters like the Vespas and Aprilias and a few of the 125cc scooters.

The battery being enclosed in the foot-board also is a bit of concern considering the huge speed-breakers in Bangalore.

160mm ground clearance is among the highest. To get hit on the foot board even with that much clearnace, requires some special skills; even with some monster size speed breakers in the city.

To be successful, it needs support from the Government. If the road tax is removed and it can be purchased using low-cost/no-cost EMI then it will make a lot of sense.

The Government has provided a 22,000 INR FAME subsidy and then the road tax is only 4% as opposed to 13% for IC engine scooters.

That way general public will at-least consider buying one due to the extra benefits being offered. Majority of the people are less bothered about the so called 'Green' initiatives and its advantages, all they want is something which is affordable and does the commuting duty without much fuss.

The day when this becomes a mass market scooter is still a long way

[hrman]

Lovely is the word which comes to mind. They have worked from scratch and built a wonderful scooter, with futuristic functionality.
Did they go a bit wayward with the pricing? I would think so. Perhaps priced 15-20k higher than I would have liked.
Lets see they plan to come up with more economical models in the future. Would have liked better mileage, say 100-120 km per charge. Would have helped save the drudgery of frequent charging. But I think if someone wants to experience what the future is going to be in the EV world, this is the one. I am not in a hurry right now to put my money on the table. They need to evolve in terms of service, network etc.

But in an electric scooter with perhaps 20 parts, what could possibly go wrong?
Also liked their sleek approach in advertising, the model and minimum fuss overall. Govt subsidy of maybe 15-20k and waiver of registration tax will make it available at a sweeter, mouth watering price point.

[aim120]

The so called subsidy by the governments is giving back the loot. They first hit you with 28% GST on the batteries and magnets imported. They then add 12% GST on the final product, they then hit you with 18% GST on the insurance and 4% road tax in karnataka.

[GutsyGibbon]

Originally Posted by ksameer1234

I did quick calculations for my 30 km daily commute to office and even with optimistic 45 kpl mileage, I am spending 15k a year on fuel at current price of petrol. With Ather, I can hope to save as much as 12k a year on fuel expenses considering electricity at INR 10 per kWh. If one considers the price of battery to be 30k (there should be some residual value in the old battery) and replacement every 3 years, there is a saving of 6k. Not including the cost of engine oil and other consumables which would add at least 1k per year. I see the breakeven being achieved much earlier in present scenario.

The battery concern could very well prove to be misplaced. You will lose energy in vampire drain when you use the scoot for less than 90kms per day. You cannot use all of the juice in your calculation like a gasoline vehicle. A fully charged scoot may be dead in a couple weeks, when not used. Best case is to charge upto what you will use. Without home charging that may be hard. Then, you will need to consider the time spent waiting at the Ather charge station.