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Old 30th June 2020, 00:56   #31
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Default Re: Covid infections & deaths at Bajaj Auto's Waluj factory

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Originally Posted by mohansrides View Post
Sir,

By any law of averages, a plant of 8000 people is more or less going to have the same proportion of infections as the general population.
I agree to most of your points, except this one! Especially in lockdown condition where movement is restricted, places of gathering (Bajaj plant in this case) will have higher chance of spread due to mixing of different population - hence higher chance of spread
Also I personally feel that Bajaj should have been cautious while ramping up the employee strength, especially considering not so great condition in MH. I ( myself automobile engineer working in an automotive OEM) have seen that there are OEMs that put employee welfare before profit and have been carefully and slowly ramping up employee strength without a single covid-19 case.

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Originally Posted by mohansrides View Post
Finally, being at home is not a guarantee that you will not get infected. See this - https://twitter.com/PhadkeTai/status...396329984?s=20
Cheers
In this case it is clear that head of the house had occasionally moved out for purchasing items - hence the system is cannot be even considered as a closed one - so possibility of infection cannot be ruled out. But I know Cases where people are (still) managing to survive despite being surrounded by covid cases (with the help of extreme caution : not everyone can manage for longer period). But then again it is about N number of factors

]

Last edited by IntoTheStorm : 30th June 2020 at 01:00.
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Old 30th June 2020, 01:07   #32
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Default Re: Covid infections & deaths at Bajaj Auto's Waluj factory

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Originally Posted by IntoTheStorm View Post
..without a single covid-19 case.
Sir,

I think that a better way to end that statement would be to say, "...without a single Covid-19 case THAT THEY KNOW OF".

Almost 85% of patients are asymptomatic. So, unless the virus really starts to trouble someone, we would not know for sure.

My neighbor is a "we-are-all-going-to-die-if-we-don't-lockdown" kind of guy. His parents, aged in the late and mid 70s, live with his bachelor brother in another part of town. About two weeks ago, both the seniors tested positive and were carted off to some isolation ward. Both sons were forbidden to see them. As expected anxiety levels were high all around. My neighbor's wife was crying and all kinds of distressing scenes in the building.

the good part is that both seniors pulled through without so much as a Paracetamol. Remarkably, uncle who is a recent cancer survivor, didn't so much as get a runny nose. All he had was a slightly scratchy throat. That's it. They tested him (and the bachelor son who lives with them) only because aunty was symptomatic with fever. In any case, both seniors are out of danger. In fact, they were never in any danger in the first place.

So, in the normal course of things, uncle and the bachelor son would not have been detected as being Covid positive at all. It is only because of aunty turning symptomatic that these two were discovered.

By the way, these were the people that I had mentioned earlier. These seniors and that bachelor son did not venture out at all. Everything was delivered to them by my neighbour who is so far not positive.

Last edited by mohansrides : 30th June 2020 at 01:10.
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Old 30th June 2020, 06:48   #33
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Default Re: Covid infections & deaths at Bajaj Auto's Waluj factory

Mod note: Keep the discussion civil. Getting personal won't be tolerated any further.
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Old 30th June 2020, 15:26   #34
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Default Re: Covid infections & deaths at Bajaj Auto's Waluj factory

Yes, virus might spread faster if you have a plant running, if one is infected, he/she will infect others.
Yes, hunger is a bigger problem than virus in all angles as each and everyone in any capacity is affected by it. Both things are true.

My opinion is that, we as a nation acted too late. WHO declared it a pandemic by 1 January, 2020. Tell me which of the following actions were more suitable if you were the PM of the nation:-

1. Wait and wait until some cases are reported in India. Till then, continue to work as usual, celebrate as usual, live as usual.
When first cases are reported, ignore them. Let their number increase to a reasonable, worriful number, then introduce a lockdown in March, 2020 without even a 3 day preparation time so all the people break lockdown anyways. This might make law and order situation worse, let it happen.
Keep extending the lockdown again and again, until people start complaining of hunger, start travelling innumerous miles on foot/ cycle/ etc..
Announce a package for the poor, and then increase fuel price to recover it from the middle class and higher classes.

OR,

2. Take WHO warning seriously in January itself, and immediately lock-down the airports and seaports, but let the country run. Totally stop incoming travellers. Gather a Medical team who should research to gather more info.
Every imported item to be on 5 days delay before reaching its customer. (Corona survives maximum 3 days on Plastic)
Prepare people to make masks and sanitisers, but keep the economy running and the gates open.
And immediately work towards handling isolated cases from those who entered the country illegally/ too long ago with Corona.


I don't want to make this discussion political, because I'm really just a common person with no political affiliations.
Mr. Bajaj might've erred up a bit, or maybe not. Maybe it wasn't his decision that caused the situation to worsen, or maybe it was.

But do you genuinely believe that closing the economy was a better idea, than closing the airports and seaports? Is closing the economy even an option in a 100 crore nation?
Why couldn't the rich suffer, having just their flights and tours denied till things are better?
And the rest of economy continues to run and people don't die hungry or walking endlessly on road?

If one is not sensitive to poor people, then whatever political or religious opinions they have, are useless. They can't indemnify themselves.
I hope I don't end up offending people... Peace.
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Old 30th June 2020, 16:11   #35
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Default Re: Covid infections & deaths at Bajaj Auto's Waluj factory

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Originally Posted by Samarth 619 View Post
WHO declared it a pandemic by 1 January, 2020.
Sir, with due respect, this is not true.
WHO declared covid-19 a pandemic in first half of march(11th march iirc).

Hindsight is always 20/20 but nobody(including WHO) took covid-19 seriously. Only after the virus caused havoc in italy, countries realised the seriousness of covid-19.

Last edited by Raghav96 : 30th June 2020 at 16:15.
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Old 30th June 2020, 16:26   #36
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Default Re: Covid infections & deaths at Bajaj Auto's Waluj factory

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My opinion is that, we as a nation acted too late. WHO declared it a pandemic by 1 January, 2020.
India was among the first few nations to act upon the situation when the total infected in Wuhan was only 41. Yes, when only 41 were declared to infected back in January itself, India had begun screening travelers from China at our airports:
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com...6.cms?from=mdr

Let's leave aside the untruth that WHO had declared it a pandemic by Jan 1st 2020, India's reactions were good.

Where did we slip up though? Well, lots of Wuhan-based industries are there in Italy. There has been comings and goings of men and materials between Wuhan and Italy, for instance. India did not screen incoming flow from Italy. Can we blame India in hindsight now? Yes. But would there have been a waterproof case for harassing incoming passengers from Italy with screenings? No.

I rest my case.
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Old 30th June 2020, 16:33   #37
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Default Re: Covid infections & deaths at Bajaj Auto's Waluj factory

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Originally Posted by Raghav96 View Post
Sir, with due respect, this is not true.
WHO declared covid-19 a pandemic in first half of march(11th march iirc).

Hindsight is always 20/20 but nobody(including WHO) took covid-19 seriously. Only after the virus caused havoc in italy, countries realised the seriousness of covid-19.
I'm sorry, I stand corrected. You're right.

January 1 is when WHO activated its emergency response framework on receiving reports of "viral pneumonia" deaths in China.
Source of this info is here:- https://www.who.int/news-room/detail...-covidtimeline

But yes, you're right. A lot of world didn't take it seriously. We COULD have, if we had more proactive leaders. :( India could've set an example.
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Old 30th June 2020, 18:41   #38
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Default Re: Covid infections & deaths at Bajaj Auto's Waluj factory

There is also a bit of a question around the fact that the coronavirus itself existed even before the Wuhan/European strain came into India. There are reports of the virus being around in 2019. There was a Delhi based doctor who apparently claimed that the tests are not sophisticated enough to identify a specific strain of the virus, and look for the common signature, which may already be present in a large population, thus inflating the numbers. This news report mysteriously died out in a day or two.
The fact is that no nation can safely claim to have nailed down the virus effectively. But some of the inter-governmental issues (Centre vs state) and then district level issues are a factor in exacerbating some of the problems.
I also felt that somehow the governments lost a bit of the Covid focus during the sudden new found media attention to the migrant issue (a taunt at the media, not the migrants themselves) Now that the migrants are coming back in significant numbers, in hindsight the government could have held its resolve to focus on migrant welfare within the cities. Their inability to do so just exposed the shallowness of the political parties at the local level, because the reach of their workers is limited to their vote banks.

Last edited by fhdowntheline : 30th June 2020 at 18:47. Reason: for better readability
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Old 30th June 2020, 19:07   #39
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Default Re: Covid infections & deaths at Bajaj Auto's Waluj factory

Meanwhile Rajiv Bajaj appears to double down on his side of the story, brave man. The article is on point.

https://www.thehindubusinessline.com...le31940289.ece


Quote :

Like every other country, you have to strike the correct balance between lives and livelihoods which we did not do in the lockdown period. Today, we are getting the balance right in the unlock period because we understand that the economy needs to move. We should unlock rapidly with the young people who are in the 20-60 age group unless they have any particular medical history.

That is all that should have been done from the beginning: the young and healthy, with masks and social distancing in place, should have always been allowed to work. Unfortunately, we went to the other extreme.

End of Quote.
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Old 30th June 2020, 20:03   #40
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Default Re: Covid infections & deaths at Bajaj Auto's Waluj factory

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Originally Posted by Kosfactor View Post
Meanwhile Rajiv Bajaj appears to double down on his side of the story, brave man. The article is on point.

https://www.thehindubusinessline.com...le31940289.ece


Quote :

Like every other country, you have to strike the correct balance between lives and livelihoods which we did not do in the lockdown period. Today, we are getting the balance right in the unlock period because we understand that the economy needs to move. We should unlock rapidly with the young people who are in the 20-60 age group unless they have any particular medical history.

That is all that should have been done from the beginning: the young and healthy, with masks and social distancing in place, should have always been allowed to work. Unfortunately, we went to the other extreme.

End of Quote.
UK wanted to bring herd immunity. Until they found too many people dying. So people in 20-60 should try and see what it does to them ?

We can argue both sides. In this thread I have read there were 70% people working in their plants. What kind of social distancing is that ?
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Old 30th June 2020, 21:19   #41
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Default Re: Covid infections & deaths at Bajaj Auto's Waluj factory

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UK wanted to bring herd immunity. Until they found too many people dying...
Not entirely true. They initiated a lockdown based on Neil Fergusson’s model from the Imperial College of London. That model predicted a very high death rate for both the UK and the US. This model has been debunked many times over now. None of those predictions panned out. Please see below.

https://www.nationalreview.com/corne...s-in-disgrace/

https://www.aier.org/article/how-wro...odels-and-why/

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ar...ns_143253.html

Today, the UK is opening up. They have even started school for kindergarten. I know because my brother lives in central London and my 6 year old nephew’s kindergarten classes have begun on the school campus.

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Originally Posted by srishiva View Post
..What kind of social distancing is that ?
None. There isn’t going to be much social distancing. Not in Bajaj’s plants. Or in any plants. Or anywhere else in society. To expect such things is being just a tad optimistic.

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Originally Posted by Kosfactor View Post
Meanwhile Rajiv Bajaj appears to double down on his side of the story, brave man..
When he has the advantage of being right, what’s there to fear? I suspect that even the PM and the cabinet have now come to accept Rajiv Bajaj’s views. But they definitely are not going to come out and say so in public.

Last edited by mohansrides : 30th June 2020 at 21:44.
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Old 30th June 2020, 22:26   #42
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Default Re: Covid infections & deaths at Bajaj Auto's Waluj factory

My wife went back to work in last week of April, she goes to work everyday. Can we survive without her salary? Yes, although she is taking a paycut anyhow.

But is that company going to run without its Admin? Nope. Without its salesmen and women coming to work can they and their family survive? Nope.

Was my wife forced to go to work? Nope, she was the first on site, planned for everyone's return to work with as much safety as possible. Is it foolproof? Nope, but it's a far better thing to do than shut down their shop.

So while we should practice as much social distancing and precautions, please understand that we will starve to death if the ones who work the land also feared for their life and sat in the AC apartment, ordering food from big basket , sanitizers in their pocket etc etc.

Virus does not discriminate among a farmer, a doctor and a policeman and an IT professional, all the same. The world over there are brave IT professionals too who keep machines running, and the machines that we run keep the world's economy running, simple.

The point is this - those who can work from home, please thank your professional choices and continue, let the ones who run establishments allow their employees to make a living.
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