[COMMUTER]

Originally Posted by starke

I don't understand what exactly is your point in your whole statement putting so much hatred towards this project


-Mass pollution? Ban private transportation? Do you think this will be practical ? . Instead of banning private transportation there should a shift to much cleaner one where 2Ws in India which dominates the mass market.



-Nobody doing charity here, everyone wants to make money so did OLA.

Pointing out something as obviously dubious is not hatred.

I mentioned the mass pollution just to highlight the absurdity of this whole EV thing.

We are not looking for charity but we need to be wary of the designs of the greedy corporate houses who keep testing the limits of what they could get away with rather than being bothered about world betterment or individual wellness.

Indian infrastructure is leaving a lot to be desired. The focus today must be in making the infrastructure the best in the world by using the easiest source of energy which is having the most matured technology backing it rather than starting to dismantle the current infrastructure for the benefit of a few corporate houses.

[srini1785]

I don't want to comment on the technical specs before the actual test rides here but I will make this one comment on the bike pricing.

OLA has probably priced the bike right for the EV market. It has had the sense to prioritize operational profits against gorilla marketing strategies like "Disruptive business model " of their cabs business. Last checked OLA cabs is yet to turn a profit. Call me old fashioned or anything but I do not believe in this valuation BS and look at hard EBITA to judge healthiness of a business. I would put my money on a company which is valued at 20Crs but makes a healthy 20% raise YOY on bottom lines than some unicorn which is valued at 20Bn but is yet to turn a profit. Sorry that's the way its is.

Tell me that FY 20-21 paints a greener picture than this:

https://entrackr.com/2019/12/ola-rev...7-during-fy19/

Mr. Bhavish Aggrawal has learnt from the Softbank affair that to build a business is about making profits and not just about valuations.

[starke]

Originally Posted by COMMUTER

Pointing out something as obviously dubious is not hatred.

I mentioned the mass pollution just to highlight the absurdity of this whole EV thing.

Could you please provide the sources or if you've done some research studies on this which proves the current transition to EVs is just absurd?

Originally Posted by COMMUTER

We are not looking for charity but we need to be wary of the designs of the greedy corporate houses who keep testing the limits of what they could get away with rather than being bothered about world betterment or individual wellness.

What else does a corporate stand for? At least they are wholly better than other OEMs like Hero who has millions of profit but introduced cheap Chinese kits to India with their label. I would like to understand the greediness which OLA puts here if not with a better product than others?

If you start a business would you sell something for loss? Wouldn't you make a better product than your competitors and of course you would publish and challenge them with the strongholds you have on your product.

Originally Posted by COMMUTER

Indian infrastructure is leaving a lot to be desired. The focus today must be in making the infrastructure the best in the world by using the easiest source of energy which is having the most matured technology backing it

-Like I said in my previous reply, will make it simple for you - "Rome was not built in a Day".

-Electricity is one of the easiest source of energy than a gasoline.

-Technology gets matured once it progress, nothing comes pre-built maturity

Originally Posted by COMMUTER

rather than starting to dismantle the current infrastructure for the benefit of a few corporate houses.

-Nobody is dismantling the current infrastructure, just like any industry automotive industry is going through a transition period and electrification is the core change content.

-A few corporate houses? all OEMs who sell millions of 2W/4W are corporates, no mass-market products come from a non-corporate company

As a consumer, we have the power to choose from or not choose. Just like past communists, blaming the whole corporate is absurd when the world runs on them.

[antz.bin]

As per some other news articles from July, as per Maharashtra EV policy 2021, subsidies for 2 wheelers were supposed to be as follows:

1. Rs.5k / kWh upto a max of Rs.10k
2. Early bird subsidy of Rs.5k / kWh up to a max of Rs.15k (for purchases prior to December 31st 2021)
3. No registration charges (3k)
4. No road tax (this is old provision, no additional benefit).

This brings the state subsidy up to Rs.28k instead of the Rs.5k mentioned in this thread.

Any idea how to avail of this additional subsidy?

With a 28k subsidy, the on road price of the Ola S1 will be lower than even the Activa 6G Std and that of Ola S1 Pro will be slightly more than TVS NTorq Race Edition.

I think this subsidy is going to run out very soon.

[COMMUTER]

Originally Posted by starke

-Nobody is dismantling the current infrastructure, just like any industry automotive industry is going through a transition period and electrification is the core change content.

-A few corporate houses? all OEMs who sell millions of 2W/4W are corporates, no mass-market products come from a non-corporate company

As a consumer, we have the power to choose from or not choose. Just like past communists, blaming the whole corporate is absurd when the world runs on them.

There is no independent research that had called for bullish adoption of EVs as being sustainable or economically sound.

China controls 80℅ of lithium supply


I didn't distinguish between the OEMs at all.Many of these OEMs went out of business too. Their products didn't get massive subsidies just because someone published a few reports calling for their usage to be increased.

These subsidies will make EVs look lucrative in the beginning but will make them even more expensive an option than the regular fuels within a decade of being forcibily adopted .

I am not against them functioning for profit. It is when they are making the government part with the tax payer's money in the form of subsidies ,amongst others, on the basis of unviable ventures just because they are profitable that I find them unethical.

We shouldn't be spending on new ventures when our current infrastructure is grossly under developed just because of some 'reports' getting published, especially when cheaper and more reliable options are available.

[hemanth.anand]

Originally Posted by antz.bin

As per some other news articles from July, as per Maharashtra EV policy 2021, subsidies for 2 wheelers were supposed to be as follows:

1. Rs.5k / kWh upto a max of Rs.10k
2. Early bird subsidy of Rs.5k / kWh up to a max of Rs.15k (for purchases prior to December 31st 2021)
3. No registration charges (3k)
4. No road tax (this is old provision, no additional benefit).

This brings the state subsidy up to Rs.28k instead of the Rs.5k mentioned in this thread.

Any idea how to avail of this additional subsidy?

With a 28k subsidy, the on road price of the Ola S1 will be lower than even the Activa 6G Std and that of Ola S1 Pro will be slightly more than TVS NTorq Race Edition.

I think this subsidy is going to run out very soon.

MH had an EV policy in 2018 and as per that, the subsidy was ₹5,000 for a 2Wheeler. That is what is mentioned in this thread.
Recently in 2021, MH introduced an amendment to that and as per that, the subsidy on the vehicle is ₹25,000. Additionally road tax is 0% and there is also a scrappage incentive of ₹7,000(if an EV is scrapped).

MH_EV_Policy_2018.pdf

MH EV Policy GR 2021.pdf

The ₹5,000 in the earlier policy was reimbursed to the user and I understand that people in Mumbai and Pune that it was a slow and painstaking process to get that back from the Government. they had to fill up some form, send it to some Govt. department, along with purchase details and dcuments, wait for their response, and then the reimbursement. Many people didn't bother getting that ₹5,000 as it was too much effort for too less.

The new 2021 subsidy of ₹25K will be given to the Manufacturer (like FAME II subsidy) and the buyers need not be worried. However, AFAIK only the Government Order has come so far and the on-ground implementation is not completed.

Ather has announced to it's MH customers that they can buy without subsidy or wait till the implementation is complete

Ola S1 is ₹99,999 in KA, ₹85,999 in DL, ₹79,999 in GJ. It is priced currently at ₹94,999 in MH. This will become ₹74,999 once the policy implementation is completed. Early bird subsidy of ₹15,000 is valid for vehicles registered on or before Dec 31,2021 only. So, from 01.01.2022, it will become ₹89,999 in MH.

[fordday]

Originally Posted by hemanth.anand

The only charges that you'll need to pay additionally for Ola S1 are registration charges (₹1100 i guess) which is mainly for the RC and the insurance (roughly ₹5000 For 1st year)

5K for scooter insurance? Never knew EV scooter has such high premiums. Is there any reason for this difference of premiums between petrol and EV scooters?

[starke]

Originally Posted by COMMUTER

There is no independent research that had called for bullish adoption of EVs as being sustainable or economically sound.

China controls 80℅ of lithium supply

I requested multiple times to provide some numbers or a scientific study that backs up your statement and you put a link of PRCs lithium reserve?

Here it is then,

https://theicct.org/publications/glo...r-cars-jul2021

https://www.sciencedaily.com/release...0323125602.htm

There are plenty of more studies done by famous universities and organisations which I don't have time to search up again.

Originally Posted by COMMUTER

I didn't distinguish between the OEMs at all.Many of these OEMs went out of business too. Their products didn't get massive subsidies just because someone published a few reports calling for their usage to be increased.

It's not someone who published these reports, please be aware of what comes out of whereas people put their time and resources to prepare that isn't doing it for fun.

Originally Posted by COMMUTER

These subsidies will make EVs look lucrative in the beginning but will make them even more expensive an option than the regular fuels within a decade of being forcibily adopted .

More expensive than regular fuels? That too in the coming years? Battery prices are going down as we speak and where as the gasoline is the opposite. It is my humble request to you to please provide some forecast studies or report or at least your assumptions which backs up your statement.

Originally Posted by COMMUTER

I am not against them functioning for profit. It is when they are making the government part with the tax payer's money in the form of subsidies ,amongst others, on the basis of unviable ventures just because they are profitable that I find them unethical.

We shouldn't be spending on new ventures when our current infrastructure is grossly under developed just because of some 'reports' getting published, especially when cheaper and more reliable options are available.

I agree with the generic context of using taxpayers money for subsidies which is not of interest to the respective people, but govt. is providing subsidies to lots of sectors like health, transportation, education which also comes up from our taxpayer's money. Here you should please understand that electrification does reduce emissions (if you are against this, please respond with some studies rather than personal opinions) and govt. need to push the same. It's not Indian govt, but this is happening in all other countries too.

No comments again to your last sentence about "some reports"

Keeping the integrity and quality of our Team-BHP forum, it would be great if you could put your opinions based on facts as anything we say here is public and could mislead people.

@Admin : Please delete/move conversation if it is off-topic

[Mafia]

Originally Posted by fordday

5K for scooter insurance? Never knew EV scooter has such high premiums. Is there any reason for this difference of premiums between petrol and EV scooters?

Surely, the risk to a battery pack, the most expensive single component, is the culprit here.

I suppose an electric scooter is more prone to scrappage in the event of an accident due to damage to a battery pack. Even if the body is recoverable, the battery pack may need replacement. That is a big risk perceived by the insurance companies IMO.

This is one of the unintended expenses to the customers.

[SKC-auto]

Originally Posted by fordday

5K for scooter insurance? Never knew EV scooter has such high premiums. Is there any reason for this difference of premiums between petrol and EV scooters?

I just checked the 1st year insurance costs of Activa, it ranges between 5000₹ - 6000₹.

[shortbread]

I think a lot of people are actually out of touch in regards to the prices or costs of ownership of two wheelers these days.

My uncle is looking to replace his old run about Activa, and says who will pay twice the price for this electric scooter? He was shocked when I told him a very basic Activa is north of Rs 80k on road!

Imagine not too long ago in our lifetimes a manufacturer tried to launch a 1 lac car for the aam junta! The ground reality is that those days are long gone.

[f1fan5]

Originally Posted by starke

Could you please provide the sources or if you've done some research studies on this which proves the current transition to EVs is just absurd?



What else does a corporate stand for? At least they are wholly better than other OEMs like Hero who has millions of profit but introduced cheap Chinese kits to India with their label. I would like to understand the greediness which OLA puts here if not with a better product than others?

If you start a business would you sell something for loss? Wouldn't you make a better product than your competitors and of course you would publish and challenge them with the strongholds you have on your product.



-Like I said in my previous reply, will make it simple for you - "Rome was not built in a Day".

-Electricity is one of the easiest source of energy than a gasoline.

-Technology gets matured once it progress, nothing comes pre-built maturity




-Nobody is dismantling the current infrastructure, just like any industry automotive industry is going through a transition period and electrification is the core change content.

-A few corporate houses? all OEMs who sell millions of 2W/4W are corporates, no mass-market products come from a non-corporate company

As a consumer, we have the power to choose from or not choose. Just like past communists, blaming the whole corporate is absurd when the world runs on them.

The Hero which assembles cheap chinese kits is "Hero electric" owned by a different family member of the Munjal family.
Rest assured the multinational "Hero motocorp" is not going to do such shady business.
They are 2 completely different companies owned by completely different people.

[starke]

Originally Posted by f1fan5

The Hero which assembles cheap chinese kits is "Hero electric" owned by a different family member of the Munjal family.
Rest assured the multinational "Hero motocorp" is not going to do such shady business.
They are 2 completely different companies owned by completely different people.

Sorry, What I meant was Hero electric only, not Hero Motocorp

I worked with their team some years back, so I know what exactly they are doing

[mazahirp]

Originally Posted by antz.bin

Modern smartphone batteries last reasonably well for about 1.5 yrs when charged daily. That is about 500 charge cycles.

For a scooter with 120km of range, 500 charge cycles will enable 60k km. The one with 180km range can get to 90k with reasonable ease. Activas with first owner rarely cross those marks.

Not to mention this will save about Rs.2.5/km in petrol costs over an Activa. That comes to about Rs.1.5 Lac for the S1 and Rs.2.25 lac for the S1 Pro in savings in just petrol costs by the time we reach 500 charge cycles.

Most Activas would go about 6-10 years before they reach that kind of mileage, and their FE would reduce and petrol will be more expensive as well by the time they are that old.


Implementing recycling solutions now would akin to building a cart for a newborn horse. It's not needed right now. Let's cross that bridge when we get there. More clarity on the problem at hand will make it easier to solve. At the end of the day, it is lithium, which doesn't need to be mined out. Should definitely be cheaper to work with compared to drilling out lithium ore.


The answer to this question is probably a few years away. But if Elon Musk has his way, it should be in the ballpark of about Rs.10-15k for a 4 kWh battery pack (like the one in the S1 Pro) by the time it needs a replacement in 6-10 years. Thats peanuts compared to the money saved over the years.



I wonder why everyone wants to equate EVs to cellphones. Just because both have a screen? Cars nowadays also have screens, are we throwing them away in 3 years? If we are, I definitely didn't receive the memo.

There is a lot of stuff inside an EV that isn't on a smartphone and besides, it is still possible to use a ~7 year old iPhone 6 Plus if its screen still works and a new battery is installed. We choose to not use it since it no longer gets updates but if we look at at it objectively, it is still roughly as fast as a Samsung A12 which the company is selling for 15-16.5k. That phone *is* good enough for *some* people. If anything, the iPhone will end up taking better photos than the Samsung.

The difference here is, 90% of the smartphone is experienced through its screen! Thats definitely not the case with an EV (which also happens to have a screen).

The thing with vehicles is that my 2009 Pulsar 220 is still *theoretically* as fast as a brand spanking new Pulsar 220 which costs twice as much. There is no real need for me to replace it with a 2021 P220. An EV will not get progressively slower with each software update like phones do. Its *touchscreen* may get less responsive, but it will still go as fast as it did on day 1 as long as there is enough electricity to power it. Electricity is something that the battery, as shown earlier, should be able to manage for a reasonable amount of time.

Hello,
Bhavish Aggarwal has definitely not let out the 3 important points:
1). What is the warranty period of the bike and battery?
2). Max charging cycles of the battery? and
3). Cost of the battery post this warranty period?

And I think the reason is because they either do not know or if he lets this info out, then it will refrain many from buying. Companies like Ola will largly make profits from this, and hence I do not think the first point is entirely true.
Let me explain.
About late last year I had enquired with Revolt and BGuass (since I was planning to buy one) and this is the info I got:

Revolt gives warranty of 8 years/150000kms i.e. 3000 cycles approx. on its 3.24kW battery. However, no info on battery cost and it does not matter since the warranty period is huge. But does this mean that for 8 years it will continue to give the same range? Obviously not! and are they covering that? I do not think so.

On the other hand, 1.45kW lithium ion battery pack of BGauss B8 comes with 3 year warranty and would cost Rs. 50000 approx (current market last year).

So lets assume, if one rides an Activa for 10k kms per year i,e. 30k kms in 3 years, he/she would need 750l of fuel (@40km/l)
If the rate of petrol is at avg of 110/- for the next 3 years, then total cost at end of 3 years would be 82500/-

So if the person is riding B8, he/she is saving 22500/- only (not considering the maintainence costs of Activa and assuming that the battery cost is same; which BGauss mentioned that they are optimistic it will reduce once the sales, battery demand and technology improve, which I doubt).

But my point here is that if a 1.45kW chinese battery of B8 costs 50k, then imagine what would a 4.9kW Korean battery of Ola cost? Then would the owner save 22500 or end up putting more?
So it all comes down to cycles and warranty. If they give warranty like revolt then it is fine, but I do not think it would be worth it if I have to replace the battery after 3 years.

Also important points to note:
I have not considered bike initial buying and maintainence costs.
Battery cycles would reduce year on year i.e. we will not be getting same range year on year. So hitting 90k @180km range is not possible.
And lastly, real world range would be very different. I expect an average of 100 for S1 and 140 for S1 Pro to start with. As mentioned, it may reduce as the battery gets older.

Thanks!

[antz.bin]

Originally Posted by mazahirp

Hello,
Bhavish Aggarwal has definitely not let out the 3 important points:
1). What is the warranty period of the bike and battery?
2). Max charging cycles of the battery? and
3). Cost of the battery post this warranty period?

Lets wait for this information. We should get this soon enough if Bhavish Kumar is serious about utilizing the production capacity he has built.

Originally Posted by mazahirp

And I think the reason is because they either do not know or if he lets this info out, then it will refrain many from buying. Companies like Ola will largly make profits from this, and hence I do not think the first point is entirely true.

No harm in turning a profit. Profit helps fuel growth.

Originally Posted by mazahirp

About late last year I had enquired with Revolt and BGuass (since I was planning to buy one) and this is the info I got:

Revolt gives warranty of 8 years/150000kms i.e. 3000 cycles approx. on its 3.24kW battery. However, no info on battery cost and it does not matter since the warranty period is huge. But does this mean that for 8 years it will continue to give the same range? Obviously not! and are they covering that? I do not think so.

On the other hand, 1.45kW lithium ion battery pack of BGauss B8 comes with 3 year warranty and would cost Rs. 50000 approx (current market last year).

BGauss is giving the 3 yr warranty because it wants to get the FAME II subsidy and wants to compete on price with other electric scooters. Its parent company has practically no brand recall in the Indian Populace. As a product, it is supposed to be the *cheapest* electric scooter, not the top selling 2 wheeler. That is not an apple to apple comparison.

Revolt is competing with 2-wheelers in general, since there are no other electric motorcycles. It is offered by a somewhat reputed Indian company. They have to offer higher warranty to keep/enhance their existing brand.

In any books, the brand recall of Ola is higher than that of Micromax. Ola's ambition is definitely not to be the top selling *electric* scooter. It aims to be the top selling 2-wheeler. They will need to do whatever it takes to topple the Activa (which is offering a 6 yr warranty). That includes offering class leading warranty to alleviate fears amongst early adopters.

Originally Posted by mazahirp

So lets assume, if one rides an Activa for 10k kms per year i,e. 30k kms in 3 years, he/she would need 750l of fuel (@40km/l)
If the rate of petrol is at avg of 110/- for the next 3 years, then total cost at end of 3 years would be 82500/-

So if the person is riding B8, he/she is saving 22500/- only (not considering the maintainence costs of Activa and assuming that the battery cost is same; which BGauss mentioned that they are optimistic it will reduce once the sales, battery demand and technology improve, which I doubt).

Your doubts are genuine when considering BGauss. I share the same doubts.

Originally Posted by mazahirp

But my point here is that if a 1.45kW chinese battery of B8 costs 50k, then imagine what would a 4.9kW Korean battery of Ola cost? Then would the owner save 22500 or end up putting more?

It costs 50k today. Just google around to see by how much Li-ion battery prices have droppped in the past 10 years and then try to extrapolate for the next 10 years. The Tesla battery day presentation gives a good idea.

And besides, the calculation you have given is for 3 years. Clearly, with the larger battery pack, Ola should definitely remain usable in an urban setting for much much longer for 2 reasons.
1. Due to higher battery capacity, 1 charge cycle goes much further than BGauss.
2. Even after the capacity is reduced by 20% (which should take >> 500 charge cycles), it should have much more *usable range* for much longer.
3. I am not even going to 3000 charge cycles even though, in all probability, all 3 companies will have very similar vendors for providing the battery cells.
4. Toyota Prius batteries have still held up well enough for the past ~15 years. Battery technology has only gotten better since then.

Originally Posted by mazahirp

So it all comes down to cycles and warranty. If they give warranty like revolt then it is fine, but I do not think it would be worth it if I have to replace the battery after 3 years.

Lets wait for this information. But I doubt a regular Activa buyer can clock such high mileages within 3 years. Even Amaron Lead-Acid batteries come with 5 yr warranty on certain models. These are Li-Ion batteries we are talking about. They are not going bad in 3 years regardless of warranty duration.

Originally Posted by mazahirp

Also important points to note:
I have not considered bike initial buying and maintainence costs.
Battery cycles would reduce year on year i.e. we will not be getting same range year on year. So hitting 90k @180km range is not possible.
And lastly, real world range would be very different. I expect an average of 100 for S1 and 140 for S1 Pro to start with. As mentioned, it may reduce as the battery gets older.

Thanks!

Thanks for pointing out that my calculation was too simplistic. There are additional variables which I have left out for the sake of simplifying the calculation. But to compensate it, I have used the very conservative estimate of 500 charge cycles.

On the petrol front there are costs associated which are not present on EVs. There is no air filter, no engine oil, no spark plug, no PUC on an EV. If the scooter has regen, it should be easier on the brake pads as well leading to higher life.

There is no key in Ola, you cannot lose it so no need to change the lock set (I have had to change the locks on my bike twice ). Over the course of 1lac km on my bikes, I have ridden at least 1000km (1%) in the wrong direction because I did not have GPS navigation or was lost. That has costed me ~3000 in fuel and maintenance costs.

All of this costs money. Maintenance is definitely not the same on both.

If we say that the range on the EV will reduce, it will reduce on the petrol vehicle as well. But it reduces on petrol due to the reduced efficiency of the petrol engine. My bike has lost no less than 25% in fuel efficiency over the course of past 12 years and 90k km. At least the EV will not be using 25% extra energy to go the same distance. Even if it did, given its higher efficiency, it will still be order of magnitude cheaper.

Considering all of the above, the long range EV will still be able to hold its own on the cost front even if the *real world* range is lower.