[Sebring]

Not in my case. With our ever expanding city, I would need at least 100 Km usable range. And if there are sudden plans to go further, I will have to drop the scooter off at a charging station. So it's not really mobile, if you know what I mean. Besides is '60-70 Km' per charge really 60-70 Km per charge? It varies vastly as per conditions/drive modes etc.

Originally Posted by SKC-auto

OLA S1(smaller battery) version will still have a range of 60-70km, plenty for city use.

[aargee]

Originally Posted by SKC-auto

Let's do some math for 5 years ownership

Let me make an attempt to share my calculation & see how much of flaw it has.

For this I'm comparing a mature product Ather 450+ versus Yamaha Ray ZR Hybrid that claims to have 66 Kmpl, so will keep the FE at 55 Kmpl.
Why Ola is kept out of this equation is...

1. New entrant
2. Don't know the subscription cost & other costs involved

First let's baseline some facts...

• Running cost of ICE scooter is at Rs 3.6 per Km including cost of
  servicing, insurance, tires, refuel
• Running cost of EV is Rs 0.30 per Km excluding insurance, subscription cost & cost of tires
• Baseline for 10,000 Km a year
• Timeline for 5 years
• Yamaha Ray ZR/Ather 450+ bought on outright purchase, means no loan/lease, which is most economical purchase
• Baseline subscription cost & cost of electricity the same for next 5 years
• OTR is kept bare minimum considering no accessories/fancy number with just insurance & registration cost
• Let's keep resale out of this equation considering EVs always have low resale value

Yamaha RayZR
OTR - Rs 96919
Why running cost is at 3.6 per Km?
Running cost of my CBR 250R from 2013 is Rs 3.5 per Km, WagonR from 2006 to 2017 is Rs 3.15, Activa from 2014 till date is Rs 3.32. However some points to note here are the low cost of petrol in last few years, last 1.5 years has not much of running, cost of Activa includes a hefty cost of refurbishing for FC, running cost on WagonR includes toll charges. Also to consider is the higher fuel cost, insurance premium & cost per service in the forthcoming years, which appears marginally higher.
So for 5 years & 50000 Km, cost is going to be - Rs 1,80000 & total cost of ownership for 5 years = Rs 276919

Ather 450+
OTR - Rs 146296
Subscription cost - Rs 4602 per year X 5 = 23010
Running cost of 50000 Km = Rs 15000
However, one point to note here is that, Ather recommends changing the battery every 4 years; so consider a battery replacement cost of Rs 70800 including GST excluding the cost of labor
So for 5 years & 50000 Km, total cost of ownership = Rs 2,55106

So after 5 years, the difference of ownership cost between ICE & EV = 276919-2,55106= Rs 21813

And this Rs 21813 excludes the cost of tires & insurance cost from second year onwards

My only request to all of you will be - Please find some flaws to perfect the math above. Thanks

[SKC-auto]

Originally Posted by Sebring

Not in my case. With our ever expanding city, I would need at least 100 Km usable range.

I just gave general assumptions. If your travel is 100km daily, you should change to EV very quick, OLA S1 Pro has 181km range, atleast a real world range of 120km, If it serves for 3 years, you will have more savings than an ICE scooter.

Originally Posted by aargee

Let me make an attempt to share my calculation & see how much of flaw it has.

My only request to all of you will be - Please find some flaws to perfect the math above. Thanks

I like to note that after 4 years you got new battery(probably better battery tech) on Ather which makes it like a new scooter, should serve well for few more years, the ICE problems (after 50K kms) start increasing at that point.

[Electromotive]

Guys, you are forgetting that EV batteries also degrade. So, range will go down over time. If the range is 100 Km when new, it might be 90/80/70 Km by the time the vehicle is 5 years old, depending on the number of charge-discharge cycles and the reserve set by the manufacturer.

[Zenboi]

Originally Posted by aargee

Let me make an attempt to share my calculation & see how much of flaw it has.
Ather 450+
OTR - Rs 146296
Subscription cost - Rs 4602 per year X 5 = 23010
Running cost of 50000 Km = Rs 15000
However, one point to note here is that, Ather recommends changing the battery every 4 years; so consider a battery replacement cost of Rs 70800 including GST excluding the cost of labor
So for 5 years & 50000 Km, total cost of ownership = Rs 2,55106

So after 5 years, the difference of ownership cost between ICE & EV = 276919-2,55106= Rs 21813

And this Rs 21813 excludes the cost of tires & insurance cost from second year onwards

My only request to all of you will be - Please find some flaws to perfect the math above. Thanks

Thanks for the quick math, this seems spot on. Petrol scooters don't make sense (financially) today with options like Ather, TVS and Chethak already there in the market if you ride more than 20-25Kms/day. I'd wait for the OLA to prove their mettle before commenting on their product. Developing a vehicle is a gruelling 2-3 year task. OLA's plug and play of working is a huge gamble IMO.

If I was to put my money today at an electric product, it would be an Ather. Though not a mass product yet, they've nailed the experience/product for enthusiasts.

I recently came across the Ather Energy Support page, a pretty comprehensive and open website for EV buyers out there. They've listed most of their ownership details and tried to answer most queries on this page - https://support.atherenergy.com/.

- OTR for 450 Plus, as per the breakdown on the page is 1,30,000/- in Blr, including comprehensive insurance and registration charges. 100 points for transparency.



- Subscription costs are 1500/- (Connectivity pack) and 2400/- (service pack) per year, I suppose? Have you chosen the lower packs because they have comparable features to the petrol alternative's features?



-Battery replacement costs are estimated to be at 40-50kINR post 3-4 years (As per my discussion with the Ather team, they maintain that battery costs are falling every year and from the current cost of around 55k, it'll easily come down to this range. we can take another 2k for labour)
Battery as per them easily should last you 5 years.



-Running cost calculation seems spot-on, may I know the range assumed though?

[hothatchaway]

@aargee, I would deduct the resale price from the total cost of ownership. You have taken a 5 year horizon and I would assume one would recover around 40k atleast for the yamaha ray.

What could be the resale estimate for an e scooter? Is it as good as new after a battery replacement? Doesn't the motor wear and tear? I am sure there would be a depreciation model.

[dipen]

Originally Posted by shortbread

Just in case anyone's interested or had doubts sown by rabid comments about the veracity of OLA electric's operations,

OLA Electric's backers:

- Pawan Munjal Family Trust (of Hero MotoCorp fame, ie. ex Hero Honda)

So Hero Motors where Pawan Munjal family are the main promotors has invested by picking 30 plus % stake in Ather energy as early stage investment. Whereas Pawan Munjal family trust has invested in Ola electric. It is not really conflict of interest, but seems they wanted to bet on the wave totally and not be missing the action.

Another twist is Pawan Munjal's cousins ( light rivals) have started their own venture HeroElectric ( not part of hero motors).

[Gansan]

My Splendor is 21 years old. But it is in very good condition. I rebuilt the engine once nine years ago at a cost of Rs 16k. It does 50-60 km speed comfortably with a pillion. I have renewed FC two times, and both times together the "refurbishment" expenses were just about a thousand rupees, because of the condition of the bike. A water wash and a few stickers wherever there were scratches. It is fully depreciated. This year they even refused to renew comprehensive insurance and gave only a third party! It still runs 650+ km on a full tank, which means FE is in the region of 65+ km/l. Whatever EV I buy now, it can't match the Splendor if one includes opportunity cost! But its FC will not be renewed anymore, though it still has 3+ years to go. Some more expenses are around the corner such as replacement of piston rings (55k km done after rebuild), chain, sprockets, two new rims and spokes, two-wheel hubs (they are worn), two tyres, and tubes. And probably clutch. I may be able to run it without any repairs for another year, but not longer than that. Should I spend considerable money on a bike whose FC will not be renewed? Hence my quest for a new one, preferably an EV.

I think for petrol ungeared scooters the real world FE will be 35 km/l, maybe a little more that will be all. I am not sure what FE @aargee has taken into account. Also, I don't think a new battery replacement will cost Rs 70k+ after five years from now. Probably half that amount, or a battery with double the range at more or less the current prices. Hopefully, we will be able to upgrade the EV by fitting the new battery.

Any idea about what happens if the EV motor burns out? What will be the cost of a new one? Are they generic motors that all EV makers use (like watch movements) or are they proprietary to the EV brand? Can their coils be rewound like a normal motor?

[hothatchaway]

Do we have any performance specs available for the Ola scooter, specifically the power output of the motor? This should atleast be available since the vehicle itself is based on the tech developed by Etergo.

If the Ather base model is available at 1.3l and the one by Ola at 1.1 (?) some performance based comparo will help in judging its bang for the buck.

[aim120]

Batteries of scooters don't become zero capacity. Now as far as resale and maintenance of ICE vs Electric read below. ICE replacement parts interval taken from service /workshop manual of honda powered scooters in india.

Let's say that a heavy user with high charge/discharge cycles after 5 years he decides to either sell the scooter or replace the battery.

If the user wants to sell the electric scooter, they will get easily 50% or more of what they paid. The second hand buyer is buying it because even after the range drop it still suits is commute distance. He will also need not do any major service like engine overhaul.

If on the other hand you want to continue using the scooter and you want to replace the battery because range is less then your commute distance. So after 5 years a new battery price would have dropped by at least 30%. Your old battery now can be sold to some else, who wishes to use it in static storage purpose or you can use it yourself if one has a solar powered house for additional storage. So if you sell the battery to some other buyer you will get the price of current capacity lets say it was 3kw new and now its 1.5kw. So you will obviously have to sell it at 1.2kw or 1.1kw price. Obviously second hand dealers may ask for lesser price.

Now for maintenance, the moving parts in a EV motor are just two bearings.

In a ICE powered scooter assuming its activa by the time you do 50k to 60k odo, chances are you would have replaced the clutch x 2, spark plug x 6 , air filter x6 or x8 depending on city dust conditions, transmission belt x1 and weights once x1 , oil change x 10 plus and 12v battery x2 or x3 or x4 varies based on individual.(Note: All the data are taken directly from activa 125cc and activa/aviator 110c service manuals).

If some one has abused the scooter by missing out on oil and air filter changes. You are also looking at changing pistol rings, gaskets, carburetor or injector cleaning/ replacement.

So considering the labour charges today there is no way a ICE powered scooter makes any sense under any circumstance.

[aargee]

Originally Posted by SKC-auto

I like to note that after 4 years you got new battery(probably better battery tech) on Ather which makes it like a new scooter, should serve well for few more years, the ICE problems (after 50K kms) start increasing at that point.

It's very much possible; but remove the equation of "makes it like a new scooter" because the looks will remain the same, only the range will improve. So in that sense, yes new.

Originally Posted by Zenboi

-Running cost calculation seems spot-on, may I know the range assumed though?

It's in the post

Originally Posted by Gansan

I think for a petrol ungeared scooter the real world FE will be 35 kmpl, may be a little more that will be all

Depends on how one rides; my 2005 Activa yields 37 Kmpl with my T.W.O & nothing less than 42 Kmpl when my Wife rides. She once had an opportunity to handle all by herself for a whole month & the damn scooter yielded 54 Kmpl!! But that was only once in lifetime.

Originally Posted by Gansan

I am not sure what FE @aargee has taken into account

It's in the post sir

Originally Posted by Gansan

Any idea about what happens if the EV motor burns out? What will be the cost of a new one? Are they generic motors which all EV makers use (like watch movements) or are they proprietary to the EV brand? Can their coils be rewound like a normal motor?

Motor burns out, to be replace, I don't think anyone can answer that as no one has experienced it until now; IMHO, the battery generates more heat than the motor itself causing more & wear to battery than motor. Ather uses BLDC, Ola uses IPM is all I know

Originally Posted by hothatchaway

@aargee, I would deduct...I am sure there would be a depreciation model.

Boss, like I said in my post, I've deliberately kept many things out of equation giving more importance with running cost trying to match as much as possible between EV & ICE & resale value is one of them. There're many more pointers that can be included which will flaw the baseline & skew the outcome of the comparison

[srini1785]

Hopefully we will be able to upgrade the EV by fitting the new battery.

Yes. Possible to some degree. The limitation is on the space availability for the battery. Higher AH batteries require more space and the frame limits the size of the battery. A motor is rated only for V and it would draw a current as long as the battery is able to supply it.

Any idea about what happens if the EV motor burns out? What will be the cost of a new one? Are they generic motors which all EV makers use (like watch movements) or are they proprietary to the EV brand? Can their coils be rewound like a normal motor?

Hero, Okinawa and all other mushroom EV makes use Generic Chinese hub wheel motors. Ather uses a BLDC and pulley belt mechanism and is proprietary to the brand.

Any motor can be rewound. You can increase / decrease the poles, conductors and rework the windings.

Originally Posted by Gansan

My Splendor is 21 years old.

The age of fountain pens is coming to a close. Welcome to Reynolds type use and throw era.

[Mafia]

Originally Posted by srini1785

The age of fountain pens is coming to a close. Welcome to Reynolds type use and throw era.

We still replace refills for the pens at home.

Recycling is a part of middle-class culture in India.

EV's are still in a nascent stage. Recycling parts has to be a mainstay.

The current cost of EV's without subsidy in established brands is prohibitively expensive. The Chinese brands probably will be use and dispose of kind of EV's.

[som9729]

Originally Posted by shortbread

Just in case anyone's interested or had doubts sown by rabid comments about the veracity of OLA electric's operations,

OLA Electric's backers:

- Softbank Group (Japanese multinational conglomerate holding giant, with USD 340+ billion in assets)

- Temasek (Singapore government’s investment fund)

- Plum Wood Investment (affiliate of Warburg Pincus, the American pvt equity firm with USD60 billion+ in assets)

- Hyundai Motor Company

- Kia Corporation

- Pawan Munjal Family Trust (of Hero MotoCorp fame, ie. ex Hero Honda)

- Matrix Partners (Indo US private equity investment firm)

While none of this guarantees a successful company or a great product, I doubt OLA electric is about to run away with proceeds they made from these bookings.

WeWork.
Nothing more to say.

[Hayek]

Am quite delighted to see the level of bookings that Ola has achieved for its electric scooter. Call it hype, call it what you will - but I like the fact that a company founded by a first generation entrepreneur can garner such massive interest for a new product in an emerging category.

For bookings to translate into a viable business of course, he needs a product, needs to prove it can be mass produced, needs it to be mass produced efficiently meeting his cost targets, not face assorted problems with regenerative braking not working well enough or battery life not matching promises or battery fires or feel of the bike while riding et al which drives customers away, needs good service - so of course there is a massively long way to go. I am old enough to remember the massive bookings attracted by the Fiat Uno, Tata Indica, Tata Nano et al - which all turned into economic disasters because the product and service experience didn’t match the hype.

But this is a first step, and adds to the feel good factor for the economy.

As an aside, of course Bhavish would call these “Sales” - this is the typical start up culture sales definition which has no resemblance to the definition of sales under GAAP. As long as his company is privately held, there is no danger of the trial bar calling this securities fraud.