[shancz]

Originally Posted by pandabear

1 I don't think it has a correlation with the economic activity if that is the case the impact would be felt across the entire spectrum of the automobile industry and not limited only to scooters.

2. Now the question is who is going to check whether the top speed is limited to 25 km per hour or the kilowatt per hour of the motor

1. two wheelers/commuters are mainly bought by the lower income groups of the society, people buying their first motorized mode of transport and the constant drop in such sales could indicate a drop in purchasing power among other things which have been mentioned in earlier posts.
Cars usually won't be the first motorized transport for the customer base mentioned above.

2. The price and profits
Why would they give you more power at a lower cost when they can sell you the improved power at a higher cost(e.g. the 40kmph EV scooters).
Apart from this there would be regulatory authorities who would have this responsibility.

[pandabear]

Originally Posted by shancz

1. two wheelers/commuters are mainly bought by the lower income groups of the society, people buying their first motorized mode of transport and the constant drop in such sales could indicate a drop in purchasing power among other things which have been mentioned in earlier posts.
Cars usually won't be the first motorized transport for the customer base mentioned above.

2. The price and profits
Why would they give you more power at a lower cost when they can sell you the improved power at a higher cost(e.g. the 40kmph EV scooters).
Apart from this there would be regulatory authorities who would have this responsibility.

Money flows from top to bottom and vice versa , very rare that only base of the pyramid gets affected, usually it's a cascading or domino effect when one is affected.

Electrical engineering guys will agree it is not very expensive to increase a few windings of coil especially if that is the main product differentiator, if it can go a bit faster than the competition then it's going to sell more, price difference is not doing to be much. Just a low hanging fruit. increasing the wattage is not as tough as it looks. Battery capacity or range is different thing altogether. Sorry I am getting a bit out of topic but the point I am trying to say is these unofficial low-cost offerings are are sure eating into regular two wheeler sales.

Spotted this beauty last week, utilitarian design, could not resist clicking a picture, and yes it did not have a number plate (not registered) and these do not reflect in any two wheeler sales figures.

For the curious this was taken outside a marriage hall and it was fully loaded to deliver food. So utilitarian I could see it carrying stuff that would normally arrive in a three wheeler Bajaj Auto.

[shancz]

Originally Posted by pandabear

1. Money flows from top to bottom and vice versa , very rare that only base of the pyramid gets affected, usually it's a cascading or domino effect when one is affected.

2. the point I am trying to say is these unofficial low-cost offerings are are sure eating into regular two wheeler sales.

3 Spotted this beauty last week, utilitarian design, could not resist clicking a picture, and yes it did not have a number plate (not registered) and these do not reflect in any two wheeler sales figures.

1. True, that's why its baffling for me but cannot see a reason for the drop. Maybe in a few months.
Not competent in electricals but I was coming from a layman's perspective.
But would any manufacturer exceed the mentioned values especially if it deals with something as important as registration ? Will it he worth the risk if they're caught in the act ? I don't think so but I could be wrong.

2. Agree but by how much is the question. My experience on a 25kmph unit wasn't impressive and nor could it ever come close to a Scooty Pep+ let alone any larger scooters.
I don't have any data to back up my theory so will leave it at that.

3. That's the Okinawa Dual, comes in various configurations of seating and battery.
Saw it in a showroom, practical design, a boon for delivery folks in a 2-3 km radius.
Since this is also a 25kmph 250W unit it classifies as an E-cycle like this rather than a scooter and hence no RTO involved.

[pandabear]

Originally Posted by shancz

2. Agree but by how much is the question. My experience on a 25kmph unit wasn't impressive and nor could it ever come close to a Scooty Pep+ let alone any larger scooters.
I don't have any data to back up my theory so will leave it at that.

Agree with you completely the fact is I too do not have any data to backup my observations. Just a wild guess.

These generic Chinese kit imports are going to kill the two wheeler industry. I am baffled to see them imported into India with such ease. All these have the same design philosophy used across different company models.

Just googled it now, and here is the kit from China for import.

https://m.made-in-china.com/product/...906472645.html

Again my guess is like any other item listed on aliexpress it would be labelled as 250W for import papers but reality seems to be 800W. When it goes for checks, its going to very easily pass though the regulatory barriers.

[shancz]

Originally Posted by pandabear

- Just googled it now, and here is the kit from China for import.

- Again my guess is like any other item listed on aliexpress it would be labelled as 250W for import papers but reality seems to be 800W. When it goes for checks, its going to very easily pass though the regulatory barriers.

- Wow that link was eye opening. I knew that they were Chinese imports but couldn't imagine it was that audacious

- That seems quite possible now. Also worth noting is the obscene profit being made. No wonder new "brands" are propping up everyday it seems.

To me it always looks like an e-waste disaster in the making when these units eventually fail in 3-4 years and the spares aren't feasible.

[Akshay6988]

Originally Posted by pandabear

These generic Chinese kit imports are going to kill the two wheeler industry. I am baffled to see them imported into India with such ease. All these have the same design philosophy used across different company models.

I don't think so. Remember when Android phones were in its nacent stage (circa 2009-2010), mobile market was flooded with Chinese phones (those extra slim ones, weird shapes and such). But major players (Samsung, HTC, Sony) soon caught up and these guys wound up their business. I feel this is how exactly Indian two wheeler market is going to be. Just wait for Honda and Hero (the real one) to launch a EV scooter at price of current gen Activa, it'll be a runaway success. We have Ola at the forefront of this EV two wheeler market, hoping they iron out niggles and issues fast enough !

[Sebring]

I believe there is a lot of demand for TVS New Jupiter (with its innovations) but Company is not able to deliver. Maybe due to chip issue. And also the industry needs to come out of the box and take a few risks like Yamaha AEROX which has reignited interest. My friends want to buy one but it's out of stock everywhere

[5252rpm]

Along with the fuel price hike, Scooter prices itself has sky rocketed especially after BS6. For instance, few variants of Activa 6G will cross 1 L mark. All of a sudden electric scooters would have made sense for many with their insanely low running costs and blink features. The crowd that booked and waits for Ola can vouch for the same.

[ArTigor]

A lot of reasons for this downfall have been mentioned above, adding few more points.

In addition to the downfall in income, exhausting of savings in covid, people are looking at used scooters in a big way. Scooters have become costly and how! if one wants a decent scooter they have to shell out almost a lakh rupees for the same.
In smaller tier 2 and 3 cities where scooters traditionally have a huge demand, used scooters have a big market, and one can get a good used activa anywhere between 25 to 40k, If one has to buy a new activa today in Maharashtra they have to spend almost 90k rupees.

[anshuman_b]

I think the current prices of all two wheelers , which went up significantly after BS6 implementation and 5 years mandatory insurance, are the main reason behind this decline.
The income has not risen much but prices of all two wheelers went up by as much as 30%.

For example, when I bought my first bike, a classic 350, back in 2016, the on road price was 1.5 lakh.
I bought the same model again this month, the on road price was around 2.5 lakh.
Around 60% increase in just few years.

[NiInJa]

One thing we must look at is how the second-hand scooter/commuter motorcycle market is doing. If that is picking up then it looks like a clear case of current scooter prices being too prohibitive for doing any upgrades. Usually these scooters were more like use and throw back in Bs3 and BS4 era, people would usually rip them apart and simply buy new ones in 5-6 years. The trend seems to be changing now.

As an example, I just revived my brother's 9 year old scooter instead of buying a new one as my kid's school started. Many people around me, the security guards, maids etc. have been asking for any used scooter/motorcycle that are available for sale.

[dsuman]

I believe the downward trend is due to high purchase and upkeep cost of an ICE two wheeler. A 110cc scooter/motorcycle costs upwards of 90,000 for basic version. Add to that the uncertain high fuel prices and service costs. Also the two wheeler boom bubble has exploded now. Almost every household has a two wheeler which might have been bought new/used.

I myself have sold 3 cars and 3 two wheelers in the last 2 years primarily due to work from home and non usage. That takes out 6 users who otherwise would have bought new vehicles.

If we compare used two wheelers market (if there is such data) these missing numbers will add up. Moreover most of the MNCs are still in WFH mode.

[shobhit.shri]

Originally Posted by Akshay6988

But major players (Samsung, HTC, Sony) soon caught up and these guys wound up their business.

I am not sure I will draw this conclusion. Those weird Chinese phones are the OnePlus and Xiomi of today, and it's HTC and Sony who has would up their business.

Originally Posted by anshuman_b

For example, when I bought my first bike, a classic 350, back in 2016, the on road price was 1.5 lakh.
I bought the same model again this month, the on road price was around 2.5 lakh.
Around 60% increase in just few years.

60% price increase in 6 years for a manufactured product is crazy. Did you sell your old 2016 bike at the same price at which you bought it? I am noticing that these days, the increased price of cars and bikes is totally offsetting the depreciation.

[Abhikumar629]

I see a lot of logic around increased price and government policies coupled with incompetency and what not. Let's look at things in a more rational manner.

The current increase in price is because of added safety tech, emission compliance, increase in Raw Material cost + added overheads of OEM's where unlike IT sector where doubling the salary has become a fashion, people expect at least 6%-8% hike to match inflation.

Coming to safety, a majority of the members here vouch for safety and make it a criteria for their new vehicle purchase (especially 4 wheeler). Why the same lot starts slamming the government when safety is prioritized in two wheelers? We need to understand that in India, a two wheeler is the daily use for a majority of us. Isn't safety required in this case?

Raw Material - The price is advocated by international commodity exchange where governments do not have much of a say. It is pure economics.

With all of this, I understand that costs have spiralled beyond reach for many but what is the point that a few are trying to make here when they directly question emission norms and safety? 4 Wheelers are also expensive nowadays, and can be available at much cheaper rates if one is ready to sacrifice safety for themselves and their family members. But look we do not talk about it when it comes to 4 wheelers isn't it!!!

[anshuman_b]

Originally Posted by shobhit.shri

60% price increase in 6 years for a manufactured product is crazy. Did you sell your old 2016 bike at the same price at which you bought it? I am noticing that these days, the increased price of cars and bikes is totally offsetting the depreciation.

Unfortunately I sold that bike last year since it was having many electrical issues after lying unused for around 1 year, even then I sold it at a price very close to the price I originally paid for.
Unfortunately, we don't have any options than paying this unjustified price, even a humble 150 cc commuter cost around 1.4-1.5 lakh these days.
Crazy times!!