[anjan_c2007]

The top ten scooters sales wise for February 2022 are showing an unhealthy decline. The sales figures show MoM and YoY declines, depicting appalling downtrend figures. Neither is the sales scenario of the commuter bikes encouraging, where the downturn is quite perceptible. Two wheeler sales truly show the employment scenario and a downturn is quite indicative of the unemployment figures. Car sales are much more in the limelight, but cognisance of two wheeler sales and reasons for such unhealthy figures need to be taken in all seriousness by the policy makers. A healthy two wheeler market shows good going at the grassroots levels. The reasons for unhealthy sales during 2020-21 were the pandemic, academic institution closures, work from home and more. But with the conditions returning more or less to normalcy with the exception of some ghosts from the pandemic times, these figures need to have shown encouraging signs.



As expected, Activa leads followed by Jupiter, Access, Ntorq, Dio, Pleasure, Avenis, Burgman, Ray ZR and Pep +. Other than the Suzuki Avenis and Burgman all other major selling models show down trends ranging from (-) 6.08% to (-) 38.51% on a YoY basis vis a vis February 2021.

The link:
https://www.rushlane.com/top-10-scoo...-12430358.html

[shortbread]

Would be interesting to see how electric scooters fared during the period. Plus the thousands of Ola electric customers who have been waiting for many months now.... including my dad!

[shancz]

Would be clearer if we're also able to factor in EV sales as the urban scooter customer is most likely yo switch to an EV.
Although I don't have any data but I will suspect a vast majority of scooter buyers to be urban.

If we add the EV sales and bookings for Feb 21 and Feb 22 to the scooter numbers that would paint a better picture.
The EVs cost similar or more than a scooter, so the purchase either EV or petrol, should be counted as a scooter IMHO.

That being said since its urban it could also be due to some migration to 4 wheelers during the pandemic.

But as mentioned in the OP, the decline in purchasing power/need seems more apparent.
Availability of EV data should confirm the same.

[anjan_c2007]

Talking about the sales of electric scooters, the sum total sales of the four major brands are in the region of 9000 units plus in all, per month. This is not a very significant figure considering the overall decline in sales of nearly 99,983 units (23.99%) of ICE scooter sales as listed in post #1. The total sales were 416,727 units in February 2021. This has dropped to 316,744 units in February 2022.

The electric scooter February 2022 sales chart is illustrative :-

[shortbread]

Originally Posted by anjan_c2007

Talking about the sales of electric scooters, the sum total sales of the four major brands are in the region of 9000 units plus in all, per month. This is not a very significant figure considering the overall decline in sales of nearly 99,983 units (23.99%) of ICE scooter sales as listed in post #1.

Yes but consider that OLA received 1 lac bookings the first day itself. Following this they would have continued to garner more bookings, and undoubtedly due to the multiple mishaps got plenty of cancellations as well.

Rest assured there are tens or thousands still waiting to get their OLA or biding their time due to a lack of better electric alternatives in the market. The only options now are locally assembled poor quality chinese scooters, expensive small Ather, delayed OLA with glitches..... (Bajaj TVS are insignificant due to lack of manufacturer effort). There is massive demand.

I think the scooter market is on the precipice of a big shift from traditional scooters. Once the current players up their game and more importantly the legacy giants seriously enter the fray, electric scooters will see a massive surge.

[i_rock098]

Also if I might add that the decline in sales is a benefit in disguise, especially for major cities given the current traffic conditions. The traffic is so horrible right now that people buying less personal vehicles is a very good thing. I hope this leads to even better public transport systems.

[shancz]

Checked the data for the past three months.

Some snapshots for reference :

1. Two Wheeler Sales Trend :
   Clear reduction in sales for two wheelers(motorcycles and scooters) which junks my assumption of the trend being majorly urban.
   Also junks the scooters to EV transition theory as motorcycles are also showing the same trend regardless of the location.
   The vehicles showing a positive growth are either new/refreshed or would be having deals.
   
   Credits to Providers : AutoPunditz : Jan22 2W Sales
   Note : The numbers represent the dispatches from factory which is usually proportional to the sales hence assumed as sales.
   
   
   
2. EV Sales :
   While the EV bookings and sales are clearly multiplying in folds but with their total numbers still cannot offset the drop in sales that we're seeing.
   Another point to consider is that the majority of EV sales, especially in T2/T3 areas where manufacturers like Ather don't exist or customers aren't willing to pay anything more than an Activa(85k) for an EV would be a significant number if not the bulk of EV sales.
   Those sales are captured by the top three manufacturers as shown in this table.
   Living in a T2 city all the EV scooters I have seen have either been Hero Electric or Okinawa. iQube is visible but only on TDs.
   Some old data conforms the same especially because the top two have also been around the longest.
   
   Credits to Providers : AutoPunditz : EV2W Registrations Feb21
   

Keeping all this in mind, IMO OP's concern is correct, although I am still baffled by it. Can't see an apparent reason on ground.

[guru_max]

High fuel prices also play their part. Two wheeler users are very sensitive to fuel prices. I do see a lot more electric vehicles than 12-18 months ago.

[anjan_c2007]

Originally Posted by shancz

Clear reduction in sales for two wheelers(motorcycles and scooters) which junks my assumption of the trend being majorly urban.
Also junks the scooters to EV transition theory as motorcycles are also showing the same trend regardless of the location.
The vehicles showing a positive growth are either new/refreshed or would be having deals.

Keeping all this in mind, IMO OP's concern is correct, although I am still baffled by it. Can't see an apparent reason on ground.

Thanks for a thorough check of the sales data for the past months and for the conclusions drawn. The T2/T3 cities/towns are in fact paralysed as far as sales growth of all basic commuter two wheelers are concerned. No uptick in the demand for two wheelers is perceptible since past many months especially in rural areas. Even when the overall car sales of cars are picking up, two wheelers sales remain in the red. As rightly said electric two wheeler sales are insignificant in the rural areas nor targeted at this moment in these areas, nor does the average rural person at this point of time comprehend buying such an electric two wheeler.

Truly, the price sensitive two wheeler buyer worries about the northward moving fuel prices and the five year compulsory insurance for all new two wheelers as per a Supreme Court directive. These in fact add to the financial woes and also add up to play spoilsport.

Originally Posted by shortbread

Yes but consider that OLA received 1 lac bookings the first day itself. Following this they would have continued to garner more bookings, and undoubtedly due to the multiple mishaps got plenty of cancellations as well.

I would request read the first post carefully. I have also indicated about overall fossil fuel powered bike sales going down during the last many months. YoY figures of bike and scooter vis a vis the earlier months of 2021 are appalling and a matter of concern as far as sales recovery are concerned. These constitute a very major chunk of two wheeler sales. The electric two wheeler overall sales are not much significant at present.

And as regards Ola electric scooter bookings and sales are concerned would you please be able to furnish breakup of bookings and sales from T-1, T-2 and T-3 locations? I have already posted the overall sales figures of the four major brands.

I hope you will also go through several news reports appearing in the media during 2021 and 2022 highlighting the overall downtrend in two wheeler sales and the worrisome scenario.

[aim120]

Many people like me are just holding on to their existing scooters and are not willing to upgrade to another petrol scooter.
Lack of proper ironed out EV scooters means, many like me will just play the waiting game for a good EV scooter.

Even ather has its fair share of issues.

[Akshay6988]

Originally Posted by aim120

Many people like me are just holding on to their existing scooters and are not willing to upgrade to another petrol scooter.
Lack of proper ironed out EV scooters means, many like me will just play the waiting game for a good EV scooter.

The current offerings in EV scooter is mainly from those cheap Chinese imports (I've got no bone with nationalism and such, just the products are downright garbage), which honestly doesn't make sense to spend 60 - 80k ₹ on. "Jugaad" battery arrangements, low range (50 - 65 kms on most scooters), no manufacturer backing and those awful cheap plastics just makes me go nuts whenever I see these scooters on road. Ola and Ather are competent products but they still have their issues - mainly Ola with it's no saree step for women, elderly and Ather's low number of sales points. I don't know how Ola thought they're going to disrupt India's two wheeler scene when they don't offer the saree step at all
Coming to the topic, it does shows how lower middle and middle class is bearing brunt of inflation, rising unemployment and overall bad policy from the government. Tough times ahead as the war in Europe goes on !

[Nilesh5417]

Even the scooters have a high entry price these days - you won't get an Activa 6G for less than 75-80k on-road. Plus the fuel prices have only been inching up and won't cool down any time soon. Maybe this is the new normal for Petrol / Diesel prices. People are probably holding on to their vehicles longer or shifting to the used market (which is going nuts itself - just check OLX).
And it is not just fuel prices, everything has prices jacked up post covid like no other time. It must be truly hard for low income groups to find cash to fund such purchases and am sure credit isn't going to be given out just that easily anymore given the high risk of default.

[shancz]

Originally Posted by Nilesh5417

It must be truly hard for low income groups to find cash to fund such purchases and am sure credit isn't going to be given out just that easily anymore given the high risk of default.

Exactly and also like OP mentioned there seems to be a slowdown in economic activity especially at grassroot levels and this could be a result of that. Very troubling indeed and I hope its due to some other reason.

Originally Posted by aim120

Lack of proper ironed out EV scooters means, many like me will just play the waiting game for a good EV scooter.

Agree, and IMO the EV scooter market would mature and become more affordable in 3-4 years as the production evolves and good products get priced competitively to their ICE counterparts.

I hope we have strong safety regulations for EVs in place by that time.

Originally Posted by Akshay6988

The current offerings in EV scooter is mainly from those cheap Chinese imports (I've got no bone with nationalism and such, just the products are downright garbage), which honestly doesn't make sense to spend 60 - 80k ₹ on. "Jugaad" battery arrangements, low range (50 - 65 kms on most scooters), no manufacturer backing and those awful cheap plastics just makes me go nuts whenever I see these scooters on road.

Here's an experience from another thread which aligns with what you said.

Originally Posted by shancz

Tried the Okinawa Lite and Praise Pro today.

Lite has a 25kmph max speed and a 250W motor. It was excruciatingly slow to begin with, the instrument console wasn't visible properly in direct sunlight and sadly within a minute the scooter died since it wasn't charged. No alarms for sure and since the instrument wasn't clearly visible couldn't see the battery icon.
It had really small wheels, the sturdiness of components like the front forks wasn't good, it felt like a toy and reaffirmed my assumption that it was best suited for small errands within premises of your society or colony at best. On public roads its a safety hazard.
Considering it costs as much as a Scooty Pep+ on road definitely not worth it.

Moved on to the Praise Pro which has a 1000W motor with eco and turbo modes. This actually felt like a scooter to ride with decent brakes and suspension. Felt sturdy and the components looked the part at least.
While I was expecting the "instant torque" to blow me away it just didn't. Even in turbo mode it accelarated way slower than my Access. But if you have to buy something from Okinawa this should be the one. If you should buy it is another question.

I don't think they're going to age very well, their USP lies in the fact that they should be used as much as possible to recover the costs within the warranty period.

[pandabear]

Originally Posted by shancz

Exactly and also like OP mentioned there seems to be a slowdown in economic activity especially at grassroot levels and this could be a result of that. Very troubling indeed and I hope its due to some other reason.
.

I don't think it has a correlation with the economic activity if that is the case the impact would be felt across the entire spectrum of the automobile industry and not limited only to scooters.

I see a lot of Chinese clone scooters on the road some of them do not even have a registration plate, where they classify this vehicles? I am sure they are not reflected in any sales figures. This for sure eats into the formal two wheeler and scooter segment. A lot of mom pop assemblers import battery and electric motors to assemble them in the small workshops. The government should have a count of this kind of vehicles and I am sure the numbers should tally up.

To quote from a website

There are two types of electric scooters. High-powered and low-powered.

Low-speed models that are driven by a 250-watt electric motor, and speeds up to 25 km per hour cannot come in the type of motor vehicle.

Such electric scooters are exempt from registration and do not even require a driving license.

Therefore, vehicles with a speed of less than 25 km per hour and/or up-to 250W are not required to have a driving license.

Such low-speed electric scooters can be easily driven by teenagers, students, the elderly, etc.

Moreover, insurance on such electric vehicles is also optional. In addition, all other vehicles require a driver’s license.

Also, it is not mandatory to wear a helmet while driving such vehicles but we would definitely advise you to wear one for your own safety.

Now the question is who is going to check whether the top speed is limited to 25 km per hour or the kilowatt per hour of the motor, I can see plenty of them zipping around. Unless these are regularised things will go soon get out of hand.

[Gansan]

There is only one conclusion. There is a downtrend in the economy. The middle class/lower middle class Joe, who is the main consumer of the scooters and motor bikes, has lost income or lost one income in the family. He exhausted his savings during the pandemic and doesn't have disposable income to buy new scooters now. And he is wary of taking loans for the purchase under the current uncertainty. So he is simply flogging whatever bike he already has.

This is the real situation. The government spiel about an uptick in the economy and gathering momentum are lies.

There are some who are waiting for a mature EV bike, including yours truly, but they are in a minority. They don't make much difference to the overall numbers.