Team-BHP - Recession Again ?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Samurai (Post 2795604)

I found that most from the graduating batch (BE) of 2012 have received 2-3 job offers last year. I found it quite intriguing considering the state of economy right now. This means most of those job offers will not be honored when the graduates come out of the college.

It cuts both ways.

In bad economy, companies look for cost reduction. Offshoring is one way to cut cost, so it might actually mean more demand for freshers.

Because of Business model, IT companies have to make sure freshers constitute at least a certain % of overall employees.

Hiring of grads + training them + getting them upto speed is time consuming and eventually works out to be as expensive as hiring an experienced resource. Companies with good manpower and also a vision on what to expect, usually go in for hiring grads but others like captives usually go for experienced resources. There is nothing known as free meal :) Most customers are wary about the Indian IT practices and prefer to offshore with great degree of control over the offshore unit.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Samurai (Post 2795604)

This time we have had very lukewarm response to our recruitment drive. Upon some investigation, I found that most from the graduating batch (BE) of 2012 have received 2-3 job offers last year. I found it quite intriguing considering the state of economy right now. This means most of those job offers will not be honoured when the graduates come out of the college.

Quite likely. We had such a scenario in 1991. Post 9/11 and the info bubble burst many job offers vanished. One chap who had been offered 7+ (not bad in 2001) by a HCL group company got a letter, saying sorry, if you want you can join on 1.35pa! Fortunately, I was able to fix him up with another MNC at a salary of 6.5+. Motorola had recruited quite a few. They were sent letters asking them to join a few months later, a mobile phone as a gift, and a note that if you take up some other job, congrats and no hard feelings.

Quote:

Originally Posted by NetfreakBombay (Post 2799708)

In bad economy, companies look for cost reduction. Offshoring is one way to cut cost, so it might actually mean more demand for freshers.

That used to be the case before, but it may not be the case this time. There are no jobs left to outsource. At least, such is the case in USA. The recession that started in 2009, never really went away. The Banking scam and the war scam has really caught up with them. I can make out the mood just by the spending pattern of my clients.

Read Third World America by Arianna Huffington, which was written in 2010. But things have gotten worse since then.

Arianna Huffington: Third World America: One Year Later

The beauty of the whole ball game is we are NOT willing to accept the reality of recession affecting India.

More than 50% of the people reading this are working in industry that is directly dependent on Europe/USA.

Coming back to the moot point, if you notice the trend, Dada used to have discussions with rating agencies before they release the ratings to the cutomers and it was a well published event. Now, if the same agencies "try" to make out an "independent" report, it is trashed as "rubbish"

Was just wondering on what is the confidence that we will grow on our "own" without any dependence on either EU/USA ?

If you notice fot the last few months/years, there are some interesting statements, like
1. India is resilient [ I don't know what they meant by that ]
2. We are not dependent on USA/EU for growth and we will grow "double" digit
3. Growth engines of the world are India and China
4. Indian Growth will be stagnant due to recessionay effects in EU/USA
5. Don't blame us for all the ills of Indian Economy, all the effects felt are bcos of what is happening in EU/USA [ This is quite the opposite of eariler year statement No 1 ]
6. Rating agencies are saying we are still good to go for investments and will grow prett good.
7. Junk the report released.

If you observe the statements above, we are in a perpetual state of denial of the truth before our eyes.

Question is "Why" deny the truth ? Why not accept it and prepare for the eventuality and then prepare the future plans accordingly ?

Recently, Had a simple discussion with a collegue of mine. He put it in a easy way.

See Boss. Story goes like this. My house [ USA/EU ] is broken. My families are lost. I give loans to others [ Asian Gaints ]. They kick my bu**. As a human, I cannot allow them to grow at the cost of my family. So what I will do now is the gaints should also be broken. And how can I achieve that. Bring in all the negative things and take back the loans.

Sitting silently and thinking about the same made a minute sense on it.

Sorry about the rant, but wanted to shed it out.

Quote:

Originally Posted by lambuhere1 (Post 2805751)

This is true. All the corporates act as if recession is not affecting them. This will in turn affect 100s of thousands of freshers who have multiple offers from these companies. This year will see huge deluge of delay in appointment letters.

Quote:

Originally Posted by lambuhere1 (Post 2805751)

Recently, Had a simple discussion with a collegue of mine. He put it in a easy way.

See Boss. Story goes like this. My house [ USA/EU ] is broken. My families are lost. I give loans to others [ Asian Gaints ]. They kick my bu**. As a human, I cannot allow them to grow at the cost of my family. So what I will do now is the gaints should also be broken. And how can I achieve that. Bring in all the negative things and take back the loans.

What loans? USA has huge trade deficit with both India and China.

Foreign Trade - U.S. Trade with India
Foreign Trade - U.S. Trade with China

Your friend better check his info. The Asian giants (India & China) have very little debt compared to any of the developed countries. All the developed countries like USA/UK/Japan are sunk in debt till their nose.

World debt comparison: The global debt clock | The Economist

We are getting into trouble because our major customers (developed countries) are in the brink of bankruptcy. Who is going to buy our export goods and services if they go under?

Jug is not an economist per se, but he wrote an extremely interesting article about debt of the developed world
Debt do us part : Jug Suraiya's blog-The Times Of India

As for loans, I guess USA owes a lot to china. All that is treasury bonds. The world is running on the hope that nobody will ever collect.

Its like the apartments and land people buy, which keeps on inflating in value, in the hope, that people won't actually sell

I think the Keynesians advising Sonia (and dominating the NAC) have gone off their rocker. Right now Nero (Pranab & MMS) are fiddling while Rome is burning. Also, the policy is ultimately defined by Mamata who is to the left of the CPM and co. She knows she cannot finish off the CPM bunch, so is trying had to finish off the No.3, ie Congress. The latter are hanging on for dear life.

I hope with Pranab on Raisina Hill, and (as is rumoured) C Rangarajan as FM things might just improve - we are already at or near the bottom.

When the entire world is seeing recessed times, the best India and the govt. could have done is kept the internal momentum going, afterall we werent bad at all,m by trying to pass the long awaited bills on Mining, FDI in Aviation and 100's of others to boost the interest of FII's and direct investors in India. No one saw that Indian govt. would go 'silent' and let the ship sink. And the worst is that even after S&P's warning and every other institution downgrading India, the only statement that came from Pranab da was that this is external impact.
I and everyone around is surprised by the 'silence', and yet no lead.