[apachelongbow]

Originally Posted by Samurai

Foreign Trade - U.S. Trade with India
Foreign Trade - U.S. Trade with China

Your friend better check his info. The Asian giants (India & China) have very little debt compared to any of the developed countries. All the developed countries like USA/UK/Japan are sunk in debt till their nose.

World debt comparison: The global debt clock | The Economist

We are getting into trouble because our major customers (developed countries) are in the brink of bankruptcy. Who is going to buy our export goods and services if they go under?

Its actually a very good time for Indian government and companies with huge cash piles to buy assets in Europe and America for cheap. We have to start owning these guys. China is doing the same. Reverse colonization at its best.
PS: I would love a reverse East India company. I want to be a plantation manager in England overseeing whites

[lambuhere1]

Consumer confidence dips for first time since 2009 as people worry about jobs

Source : Consumer confidence dips for first time since 2009 as people worry about jobs

The drop from the top position for India after nine quarters indicates a growing anxiousness amongst consumers today in relation to the job prospects and spending habits

A little over half those surveyed feel that India is in a recession now. Against 53 per cent in the latest quarter, the number was 51 per cent in the previous quarter and over 10 percentage points increase from the year-ago period.

[selfdrive]

Someone mentioned real estate prices falling. It will take many more no's from buyers for that to happen.

Originally Posted by apachelongbow

Besides you seem to have a strong bias towards Manmohan, who was primarily responsible for you and I to sit and look at all good things in life, else you and I would drive around in ancient Ambassdor/Fiat Mark 100 commenting on how 50bhp is so wonderful in life

Well, in my opinion if he is given credit for globalisation, then he has to take flak for his lack of decision making on the subsidies in the last few years. If somebody says this is more due to the free rein given by Narasimha Rao then and compulsion of vote bank politics now, some credit is also due to Mr. PV Narasimha Rao.
And to be very blunt, though it may seem blasphemous to us, a lot of poor people who suffer most due to inflation dont care if we drive around them in Ambassadors or Audis.

Originally Posted by apachelongbow

PS: I would love a reverse East India company. I want to be a plantation manager in England overseeing whites

I think that is a bit uncalled for. Nothing grows there anyway.

Originally Posted by lambuhere1

Consumer confidence dips for first time since 2009 as people worry about jobs

in fact this situation has worsened since the lack of rains at least in the area where I live. If the monsoon is anything less than normal, it will dictate buying patterns for the next year at least. needless to say, it has a roll on impact on manufacturing and other industries, as well as our savings too.

[apachelongbow]

Originally Posted by selfdrive

Well, in my opinion if he is given credit for globalisation, then he has to take flak for his lack of decision making on the subsidies in the last few years. If somebody says this is more due to the free rein given by Narasimha Rao then and compulsion of vote bank politics now, some credit is also due to Mr. PV Narasimha Rao.

You are right about this curse of coalition and vote bank politics. Actually its we people who get the government we deserve in a democracy. So if poor people are getting hammered by inflation, they need to blame themselves. I really hope that in 2014 (if not earlier) we finally get a majority government, atleast there would not be any policy paralysis like today!!!

[ritz3645]

Originally Posted by selfdrive

Someone mentioned real estate prices falling. It will take many more no's from buyers for that to happen.

Dear Sir,
India was never a free and fair real estate market.
So It will take more time to make the sale for seller, or Car with a Flat will be back.

[selfdrive]

Originally Posted by ritz3645

Dear Sir,
India was never a free and fair real estate market.
So It will take more time to make the sale for seller, or Car with a Flat will be back.

true, we are already at free modular kitchens etc. but despite recession possibilities, unfortunately I dont see a drop in Indian real estate prices as was the case a couple of years ago in US.
as most of us will not default on our home loans. not as many as did there at least

[lambuhere1]

Originally Posted by selfdrive

as most of us will not default on our home loans

Patience is the key in here.

Waiting for 2012-2013 for the default to start.

OT. If you are interested in following realestate foreclosures in India, like I do, kindly visit ForeclosureIndia.com | Bank Auction Properties | Preforeclosures | Bank Foreclosures

I am not affiliated to the said website, keep following it for knowledge though

One information which I could gather from the aforesaid study was that the number of closures by banks have increased in last few months, similar to 2008.

[mjothi]

Originally Posted by selfdrive

true, we are already at free modular kitchens etc. but despite recession possibilities, unfortunately I dont see a drop in Indian real estate prices as was the case a couple of years ago in US.

Right. The real estate in India is on just investment. But a place to park the colorful money. Even for those who do it as an investment, its a sentiment attached to the property.

But in US, its not the case.

So, expecting something like the waves in US, is next to impossible in India. Atleast for next decade in my opinion.

[selfdrive]

Originally Posted by ritz3645

So It will take more time to make the sale for seller, or Car with a Flat will be back.

What if they give a petrol car

Originally Posted by lambuhere1

OT. If you are interested in following realestate foreclosures in India, like I do, kindly visit ForeclosureIndia.com | Bank Auction Properties | Preforeclosures | Bank Foreclosures

This is an interesting website. Do the auctions take place at the property itself and do we need to register to participate? I hope it is not like the vehicle auctions which are rigged.

Originally Posted by mjothi

Right. The real estate in India is on just investment. But a place to park the colorful money. Even for those who do it as an investment, its a sentiment attached to the property.

yes, sentiment if people live in it themselves. Or rental income, which is usually the case for second/ multiple properties.

[evo]

I agree. Infact its quite strange how with all the recession talk a lot of property prices are still crazy.

I have been blogging about it just to get more perspective -

The India Growth Story. ( Filed Under : (Social) Science Fiction ) | AwfullyClever.Me

[ritz3645]

Originally Posted by evo

I agree. Infact its quite strange how
[/url]

Hi,
Every market has its cycles, they go up/down, sideways etc etc.

Everyone buys what they need or have capacity to afford.

A buyer only makes profit when someone buys from him/ to complete a cycle.

What is happening now in RE market, is a little dose of poison pill, how,
they themselves have increased the rates, as if to pat on their back, and self esteem,
well they are worth more now, but only on paper.

what decides is end user buying, wish we had a site which offered monthly sales taken from registration office.

All govt are little biased on this as their revenue takes a dive if prices go down.

Working class care a damn on prices as they follow the 20% rule.
Imagine loan for 20 years, when inflation will moderate (FI news channel said higher inflation translate in RE going higher.
Already money supply has been constraint, its the flipers who are out, lets see how things pan out.

[lambuhere1]

Future Directional Analysis : My Collection of Data Points

Earnings Show Recession May Be 'Fast Approaching' - US Business News - CNBC

• future expectations through the year indicate a recession could be on the way
• This trend, however, has accelerated to the downside over the past 30 days and we are fast approaching levels where these estimates are unambiguously pointing to the risk of a U.S./global recession later into 2012 and 2013
• the country already could be in recession or is progressing toward one later this year
• When corporations feel the pinch from a slower economy, they lay off workers

US poverty on track to rise to highest since 1960s - Yahoo! News

• The ranks of America's poor are on track to climb to levels unseen in nearly half a century
• Poverty is spreading at record levels across many groups

Global economy in worst shape since 2009

• global economy is in the worst shape since the dark days of 2009
• economic superstars of the developing world — China, India and Brazil — are in no position to come to the rescue. They're slowing, too.
• one of the consequences of globalization: There's nowhere to hide.
• Unemployment is already at recession levels in Europe and the United States.
• the American economy can't maintain momentum. For the third straight year, growth has stalled at mid-year after getting off to a promising start.
• Consumer confidence has fallen four straight months in the face of scant hiring and weak economic growth. U.S
• In the latest wallop to the global economy, China said last week that its economic growth fell to a three-year low
• India's troubles are mostly self-inflicted
• the pay of many Indians has been diminished by inflation, which has averaged more than 9 percent a year for the past two years

Lastly, T** fot Tat

Business Briefs
There can be no investment from the Indian side (in Russia) if such things happen to our investment here. It takes two to tango, you know,” Russian ambassador to India, Alexander M. Kadakin


PS: Mods, Compiled the data for a holistic understanding of the happenings in the world. Feel free to modify the same.

[sgiitk]

Are we into stagflation?

High inflation, low growth: Is India stagflating? - The Economic Times

[lambuhere1]

OMG : Has it already started !!

Season of layoffs

[evo]

[quote=sgiitk;2848244]Are we into stagflation?
/QUOTE]

Actually I just wrote this out some hours ago on my blog, so this is my view:

Is India Stagflating?

Sort of.

Stagflation is when Inflation rises even though the pace of economic growth slows down. So in a strict sense yes, we are.

However, the late learned Mr.Keynes conveniently ignored the “political angle” of economics at times. Why are prices rising in India? In other words what is causing Inflation?

So, is it a Supply Side or a Demand Side phenomenon?

The poor monsoons is the only indicator of reduced Supply. The jury, though, is still out on that and we dont know for sure.

Till the monsoons (ahem,the lack thereof), there were no other Supply side pressures.

So now we come to Demand.

And there, kind sirs, we have our answer since the crazy government borrowing that is supposedly trickling down via MNREGA into consumption spending is perhaps the single largest cause of inflation.

It may be the single largest cause, but it has a double impact.

ONE

Government borrowing crowds out private borrowing since nobody`s credit rating is better than the Sovereign as well as the fact that the money supply is finite and if one borrower (in this case the Government) corners most of the supply, then the others will have less.

As such, interest rates go up, which lead to larger interest payments for producers which in turn are passed on to consumers.

TWO

As MNREGA pays out copious amounts of money that work their way into the economy in terms of higher spending, prices go up. Especially for food since the first priority for most of India`s poor is better nutrition.

QED

There. Now you have a view of the causes behind the current inflation in India. Even though it is much too simplistic.

Back to Stagflation

Returning to beginning is an excellent way to end sometimes. So to answer the question at the top of the post, yes, we are perhaps Stagflating however not in the term is generally used.

To elaborate, the original Stagflation was the 1971 American one where Commodity Supply Shocks and the Oil Shock (Also supply, obviously) led to high inflation in a period of low growth.

In our case, there is no Supply Shock. Atleast as of now. (We dont know what will be the impact of the US drought as yet.) And no Oil Shock for sure. Infact, oil prices are Shockingly Low.

What we have, ladies and gentlemen, is an invention of our perverted political masters. Please welcome a global first – Demand Shock.

*thunderous applause in background*

http://awfullyclever.me/2012/07/24/i...a-stagflating/


By the way…

I was`nt the only one to have considered Stagflation to just be an unimaginatively named inflated male deer.