[drsingh]

To all the people citing various constitutional laws and contracts etc., be aware that you are living under the Draconian Epidemic Act of 1897. It is vague act of 5 sentences. It basically gives the government power to appoint anyone to do anything, with or without payment. And extract money from anywhere to put towards any use to deal with the pandemic emergency.

Not surprisingly, this crisis has solved many political problems of the regime.

[MegaWhat]

FY21Q1 GDP contracts by -23.9%. Seems massive. Combine that with the GST sharing fiasco and I think we're going to have a few uncertain months on our hands. God bless the people.

[DigitalOne]

Here is how to generate demand - Give a Basic Income for all Jan Dhan bank account holders.

1. Transfer 500rs to every Jan Dhan account month. Cost to govt = 20 crore accounts * 500 = 10,000 cr, which is quite affordable.

2. Create a trust for operational purpose. Govt funds 10,000 crore every month.

3. Eliminate any bias, any discretion for trustees. Trust is simply for legal purpose and remove any influence of all government. It is just a technical transactional pipe.

4. Make it very simple for citizens to contribute to the fund. If we know that there is no bias, no discretion, no hidden agendas, I would be very much inspired to directly help my fellow citizens who are in trouble.

5. Govt contributes 10,000cr every month, and if contributions from citizens touches another 5000 cr, a JD account holder gets 750 pm, no questions asked.

This is a social security net for our poorer sections. They are assured at least 500rs per month over on top of what they are earning. And it will generate consumption demand.

Of course, there will be entrenched socialists or bureaucracy who will oppose this for their own reasons. Socialists oppose any moves which doesn't give them the power of other peoples lives.

[V.Narayan]

Where we stand. The hardest, longest, least planned lockdown. The hardest fall, so far at least.

[Sutripta]

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

Where we stand. The hardest, longest, least planned lockdown. The hardest fall, so far at least.

So you believe there was atleast some planning, ie some application of thought/ forethought involved?

Sutripta

[extreme_torque]

Originally Posted by Sutripta

So you believe there was atleast some planning, ie some application of thought/ forethought involved?

Sutripta

A 4 hour notice to lockdown a country of 1.3 billion people in full, 72 hour notice for the planned symbolism "thaloi bajao". Do you really think there was no planning? Not all planning is good though.

[ABHI_1512]

Major goof ups like the ill planned demonetisation, hasty rollout of GST, altering the methodology of calculating GDP to hide the actual figures, lockdown of an entire country for so long, unemployment rate at forty year high even before the pandemic, I mean a country can only take as much !

There was a time when any deviation in the CAG reports used to be dissected thread bare but such are the times that the resignations of four reputed economic advisors on the trot is not even questioned once. Masking figures can only work as much and now that we are in the doldrums, I see the spin machinery on overdrive.

So many job losses, highest number of corona cases rising daily, foreign policies lying in tatters, corruption going mainstream, Index of Industrial production going downstream and car sales( which somewhat indicates stable or rising incomes) already at an eight year low even before the pandemic, no prizes for guessing where are we headed !

[V.Narayan]

Originally Posted by ABHI_1512

Major goof ups like the ill planned demonetisation, hasty rollout of GST, altering the methodology of calculating GDP to hide the actual figures, lockdown of an entire country for so long, unemployment rate at forty year high even before the pandemic, I mean a country can only take as much !

There was a time when any deviation in the CAG reports used to be dissected thread bare but such are the times that the resignations of four reputed economic advisors on the trot is not even questioned once. Masking figures can only work as much and now that we are in the doldrums, I see the spin machinery on overdrive.

So many job losses, highest number of corona cases rising daily, foreign policies lying in tatters, corruption going mainstream, Index of Industrial production going downstream and car sales( which somewhat indicates stable or rising incomes) already at an eight year low even before the pandemic, no prizes for guessing where are we headed !

The great characteristic of economic melt downs is that the spin doctors cannot fool the housewife, the small businessman, the hawker, the taxi driver, the middle tier employee, the investor etc. They know the reality on the ground long before the spin doctors. Spin may act as a balm to certain politicians - it is like mouthing a lie and then being the only one who believes it. On political issues you can get away with spin. On mild economic situations too. But on a nose dive to unemployment, never.

Originally Posted by Sutripta

So you believe there was atleast some planning, ie some application of thought/ forethought involved?

To you my friend goes the crown of being the king of dry humour on Team BHP.

[ninjatalli]

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

The great characteristic of economic melt downs is that the spin doctors cannot fool the housewife, the small businessman, the hawker, the taxi driver, the middle tier employee, the investor etc. They know the reality on the ground long before the spin doctors. Spin may act as a balm to certain politicians - it is like mouthing a lie and then being the only one who believes it. On political issues you can get away with spin. On mild economic situations too. But on a nose dive to unemployment, never.

I sincerely wish your words ring true going forward. Unfortunately we are dealing with a lot that is exceptionally good at this, and a whole segment of population with sheep mentality. The norm seems to be be quiet and hide behind caveats and throw dirt at other meaningless aspects to keep the ball rolling within the herd.

[extreme_torque]

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

The great characteristic of economic melt downs is that the spin doctors cannot fool the housewife, the small businessman, the hawker, the taxi driver, the middle tier employee, the investor etc. They know the reality on the ground long before the spin doctors. Spin may act as a balm to certain politicians - it is like mouthing a lie and then being the only one who believes it. On political issues you can get away with spin. On mild economic situations too. But on a nose dive to unemployment, never.

You are overestimating my friend. It is not like before these numbers came out everything was hunky dory. The economy has been in mess much before COVID and that did not change the narrative either. We now live in a democracy with compromised institutions. If a whole section of a population can be thrown out of the national narrative, what hope/effect do a few lakh students or people crying out loud on social media would have. There is no one left to listen to the voices of the oppressed or the distraught. All is well in the political world though with 20,00 crore expense ready for central vista in Delhi or 9000 crores spending on brand spanking new air planes in a country with unemployment as high as 25% and these are official numbers. We all know what happens to anyone who dare raise his/her voice or dissents. There have been red herrings all along the way but with people high on hatred and communalism it does not matter and it wont start to matter suddenly. This process of conditioning the masses has been going on for long and without opposition.

[JayKis]

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

Where we stand. The hardest, longest, least planned lockdown. The hardest fall, so far at least.

This is what I would call shrewd fudging of data by news agencies since there is one single data point in that picture that is incorrect but that could completely alter the symbolism that the picture generates

These are the Original figures (QoQ -Yearly) for all the countries in the list.

Country (QoQ Yearly)
India (-23.9)
UK (-20.4)
France (-13.8)
Italy (-12.8)
Canada (-11.7)
Germany (-11.3)
US (-31.7)
Japan (-7.8)

[Chetan_Rao]

Originally Posted by JayKis

This is what I would call shrewd fudging of data by news agencies since there is one single data point in that picture that is incorrect but that could completely alter the symbolism that the picture generates...

Those are two separate calculations, as BHP-ian Hayek explains here.

The US had a 9.5% contraction in adjacent quarters (Q4-last FY to Q1-current FY). That number was then annualized to ~32%, obviously with certain assumptions for future outlook.

India's reported number is a comparison to the same quarter last year. Adjacent quarter contraction is actually a worse number (reportedly ~29%), so if anything, the fudging (as you claim) has swung the generous way. Actuals are worse.

Disclaimer: Not an economist, open to correction.

[ABHI_1512]

Originally Posted by JayKis

These are the Original figures (QoQ -Yearly) for all the countries in the list.

Country (QoQ Yearly)
India (-23.9)
UK (-20.4)
France (-13.8)
Italy (-12.8)
Canada (-11.7)
Germany (-11.3)
US (-31.7)
Japan (-7.8)

You are reading up the wrong and fudged sources Sir, the figure you have quoted for US is the annualised figure and all other are quarterly figures. Quoting a wrong figure in bold doesn’t make it right. Quite an irony when you yourself fell for the fudged data while correcting the original true data !

The actual contraction if collated would come to even worse for India if the QOQ vis last year is taken as comparison. In fact India looks even worse if compared QOQ Jan-Mar 2020 to Apr-Jun 2020 :

India -29%
UK -20%
Canada -12%
US -9%
China 12%

[Sutripta]

Originally Posted by drsingh

To all the people citing various constitutional laws and contracts etc., be aware that you are living under the Draconian Epidemic Act of 1897.

Last week one would have said, with deep conviction, that the constitution trumps other laws. But if I'm not mistaken (open to being corrected) the part of GST payments to be made to states is also part of the Constitution. Added to the Constitution by the current regime. And the AG recently advised the govt. that that part of the constitution can be disregarded, it does not hold.

Sutripta

[vrprabhu]

Let's come back to the economics -

I am sure many would recollect the 'dot-com' bust in ~ 2008.

Those in IT centres (Bangalore, Pune, Gurgaon etc.) would have felt the heat during sudden lay-offs that took place between 2008-10.

This was sector specific - but there was a ripple effect across the economy. The housing and auto demand dipped during this time.

Now that there is a clear indication that quarterly GDP is showing a down-ward trend, any guesses as to how the near term future will look like?

PS - Get used terms like 'V Shaped' and 'high frequency' being used now, to indicate things will bounce back fast. Doubtful, though.