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Old 20th January 2018, 10:11   #211
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re: The Cryptocurrency & NFT Thread

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Originally Posted by smartcat View Post
Top banks suspend accounts of major Bitcoin exchanges in India
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/...w/62576882.cms

The above article also confirms what I suspected - exchanges like Zebpay artificially increase the bid/ask spread using "market makers". When you buy a bitcoin, you need to pay more. When you sell a bitcoin, you get paid a lot less.
On the contrary, market makers in fact help reduce the bid/ask spread and help improve liquidity in the market, i.e. make the market.

If you have used zebpay a couple of weeks back, and the latest one, you will know the difference. Right now, right this second, the difference between the buy and sell price of BTC on Zebpay is an enormous ₹1.

Banks are suspending accounts of Crypto-fiat gateways because they are scared that crypto will take away all the accounts (which they will, in half a decade).

Last edited by antz.bin : 20th January 2018 at 10:26.
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Old 20th January 2018, 10:29   #212
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re: The Cryptocurrency & NFT Thread

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On the contrary, market makers in fact help reduce the bid/ask spread and help improve liquidity in the market, i.e. make the market.
There are no professional market making companies operating in this space right? If there are professional third party market makers involved, the bid/ask spread will be negligible.

So it is likely that the exchange or parties associated close to exchange promoters are acting as market makers, keeping a wide bid/ask spread. If this exchange was under SEBI, it would not be allowed. But there are no regulations here, so Zebpay/Unocoin can do pretty much what they want.

Quoting from the ET article:

Quote:
- These exchanges tend to show the total volumes both on buy and sell side as their revenue.
- In many instances, the exchanges themselves buy and sell cryptocurrencies on their own platform,"
- Many of the exchanges operate at a margin of close to 20%,
- Most of the exchanges have different rates for buying and selling cryptocurrency. The difference between buying and selling rates is about 25%.
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Originally Posted by antz.bin View Post
If you have used zebpay a couple of weeks back, and the latest one, you will know the difference.
Result of more competition (exchanges) operating in this space. They will slash their own margins to keep market share.

Quote:
Banks are suspending accounts of Crypto-fiat gateways because they are scared that crypto will take away all the accounts (which they will, in half a decade).
Based on my own experience (made a few trades to see how things work) with cryptocurrencies, there is no way on earth banks and bank accounts will be replaced by these.

But yeah, this decision by big banks is strange if RBI has not instructed them to do so. Why should banks care what customers do with their money?
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Old 20th January 2018, 10:38   #213
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re: The Cryptocurrency & NFT Thread

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There are no professional market making companies operating in this space right? If there are professional third party market makers involved, the bid/ask spread will be negligible.
Here is a screenshot I took a few seconds back.

How much more 'Negligible' do you want it to be?

The Cryptocurrency & NFT Thread-img_20180120_103226.jpg

Regarding banks being replaced, let's just wait and watch. My 'yet to be purchased' Crypto debit card should arrive in a couple of months. I will be sure to evaluate and report here, the pros and cons.

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Old 20th January 2018, 10:59   #214
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re: The Cryptocurrency & NFT Thread

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Originally Posted by antz.bin View Post
Here is a screenshot I took a few seconds back.
How much more 'Negligible' do you want it to be?
wow! But do check after some time because those are impressively tight spreads. Probably the best in the world?

Spreads on major exchanges: https://www.tokenspread.com/
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Old 20th January 2018, 11:23   #215
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re: The Cryptocurrency & NFT Thread

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wow! But do check after some time because those are impressively tight spreads. Probably the best in the world?

Spreads on major exchanges: https://www.tokenspread.com/
What I see in that link is an opportunity to make money. An arbitrage opportunity.

There is money to be made everywhere if you know where to look. The arbitrage will always be there as long as the same security is traded on more than 1 exchange. It exists even on NSE/BSE.

Market spreads reduce if there is more volume and liquidity. On the day of the last bottom(17th Jan), there was 1300+ BTC of trading on just Zebpay. That's over 1 billion rupees (₹100Cr).

Everyone knows how truthful the media is. ET and CNBC was egging everyone to get on the BTC train when it was trading above $17k. People bought BTC on credit cards when the people in the core community were liquidating their BTC. When BTC started tanking, the media started pumping Ripple! When Ripple started dropping, they started again with TRON! None of those have ended well.

The correction was inevitable, and exaggerated more due to these panic sellers (who bought off credit cards). I would like to thank these sellers who helped us buy cheap BTC at a month+ old prices ($9k-$10k). Who would miss out on such 50% sales?

As for the non believers, my advice would be to try it out with 1% of your total portfolio. Try ETH if the prices of BTC scare you. You will come back to thank this post later.
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Old 20th January 2018, 13:47   #216
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re: The Cryptocurrency & NFT Thread

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Originally Posted by antz.bin View Post
What I see in that link is an opportunity to make money. An arbitrage opportunity.

There is money to be made everywhere if you know where to look. The arbitrage will always be there as long as the same security is traded on more than 1 exchange. It exists even on NSE/BSE.

Market spreads reduce if there is more volume and liquidity. On the day of the last bottom(17th Jan), there was 1300+ BTC of trading on just Zebpay. That's over 1 billion rupees (₹100Cr).

Everyone knows how truthful the media is. ET and CNBC was egging everyone to get on the BTC train when it was trading above $17k. People bought BTC on credit cards when the people in the core community were liquidating their BTC. When BTC started tanking, the media started pumping Ripple! When Ripple started dropping, they started again with TRON! None of those have ended well.

The correction was inevitable, and exaggerated more due to these panic sellers (who bought off credit cards). I would like to thank these sellers who helped us buy cheap BTC at a month+ old prices ($9k-$10k). Who would miss out on such 50% sales?

As for the non believers, my advice would be to try it out with 1% of your total portfolio. Try ETH if the prices of BTC scare you. You will come back to thank this post later.
More than the money making possibilities, the ideals and the vision are appealing. Anyone interested in Ethereum should read articles on blockgeeks.com. I looked at this space like a retail investor earlier, but now I am really impressed by the vision. I keep trying to buy whatever my limited means permit, and right now it is around 10% of my portfolio. It may end badly, but if it is something that makes me look towards a better world, I am willing to risk it. People who are celebrating the fall in prices are most likely mistaken. I hope time will prove that. I cannot.

And yes, economics is not a privilege of a few blog post writers. Even today, the Prof who teaches us economics said we do not know what exactly is the link between unemployment and inflation after 2008. He was the head of ECB for quite some time. Humility is a product of excellence. Along with other topics, Bitcoin is on his list of graded presentations this time. Not surprisingly, it is the most popular topic so far. I'm saying this because Cryptocurrencies are perceived to be akin to lottery tickets by many members. That is not true, and people who are really smart are assessing the merits/demerits of making them mainstream, instead of trying to bulldoze their lack of faith in the concept.
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Old 20th January 2018, 15:03   #217
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re: The Cryptocurrency & NFT Thread

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Originally Posted by Nissan1180 View Post
More than the money making possibilities, the ideals and the vision are appealing. Anyone interested in Ethereum should read articles on blockgeeks.com. I looked at this space like a retail investor earlier, but now I am really impressed by the vision. I keep trying to buy whatever my limited means permit, and right now it is around 10% of my portfolio. It may end badly, but if it is something that makes me look towards a better world, I am willing to risk it.
I like your approach (not in for speculation, but for a better world etc). After all, most of us spend our savings on things like travel, clothes, cars, gadgets etc. So spending some money on what you believe in (blockchain tech making a better world) is okay. And yes, Ethereum project is definitely more interesting than Bitcoin or Ripple

But I have a question - you know companies like Ola/Uber, Swiggy/ Zomato, Zoomcar, Flipkart etc are attempting to solve people's problems and are genuinely building something useful. If they come out with an IPO now and ask for public money, would you invest in them? If yes, wow I'm impressed! If no, why?

Last edited by SmartCat : 20th January 2018 at 15:05.
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Old 20th January 2018, 15:27   #218
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re: The Cryptocurrency & NFT Thread

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Originally Posted by smartcat View Post
I like your approach (not in for speculation, but for a better world etc). After all, most of us spend our savings on things like travel, clothes, cars, gadgets etc. So spending some money on what you believe in (blockchain tech making a better world) is okay. And yes, Ethereum project is definitely more interesting than Bitcoin or Ripple
People perceive crypto currencies to be like Stocks, just because they can be easily traded on exchanges. But the fundamental reason you buy stocks is different from why you buy crypto.

People argue that there is not inherent value in crypto currencies and it is all speculation. Whereas the inherent value to stocks is the dividend yield. That's why stock prices gain/fall on favourable/unfavorable quarter results. But apart from that (and the speculative gains) there is no practical utility of holding stocks of a company for almost all small investors.

The counter argument is, the value provided by crypto currencies my not be from its dividend, it comes from its use as a product.

If you use Ripple instead of SWIFT for cross border payments, you save money! Its this value proposition of XRP which gives it value! It doesn't matter if it is $0.18 or $3.5. It will always work the same, and it will always save you money over SWIFT. Its traded value is just a product of its popularity and in no way interferes with its core value proposition.

If you use the Ethereum Blockchain to set up smart contracts based projects instead of making paper contracts, you save money on legal fees. It doesn't matter if ETH is trading $8 or $1400, you always save money. And as a side benefit, people helping run the Ethereum Blockchain also make a small amount of money in return for their contribution.

Decentralisation helps reduce middleman fees and even those miniscule fees are distributed among the supporting community.

I agree that the situation with BTC is truly getting out of hand but Bitcoin Cash is still doing exactly what Bitcoin was originally trying to achieve, though without much community support, due to its roots.

The crux of the matter is, as long as the product is functional, there is no reason why the value of a crypto currency will "crash and burn" to zero. But as soon as the product stops being appealing, there is nothing to stop it from doing exactly that. It all depends on the product and the value proposition over existing solutions. Something like that happened on the morning of 17th Jan with Bitconnect Coin (BCC) which dropped from $250 to $5. So choose wisely what you support and believe in.

People who are worried about Bitcoin miners wasting energy for little return. I just want to tell you that what Bitcoin community has done is ground work for something much bigger. In a few years (3-4) time all the miners will be mining something totally different because all "Currency" cryptos will move on to the much more energy efficient "Proof of Stake". All the hardware currently being "wasted" on Crypto currency mining will be doing something much much much more beneficial for the society at large.
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Old 20th January 2018, 15:46   #219
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re: The Cryptocurrency & NFT Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by smartcat View Post
I like your approach (not in for speculation, but for a better world etc). After all, most of us spend our savings on things like travel, clothes, cars, gadgets etc. So spending some money on what you believe in (blockchain tech making a better world) is okay. And yes, Ethereum project is definitely more interesting than Bitcoin or Ripple

But I have a question - you know companies like Ola/Uber, Swiggy/ Zomato, Zoomcar, Flipkart etc are attempting to solve people's problems and are genuinely building something useful. If they come out with an IPO now and ask for public money, would you invest in them? If yes, wow I'm impressed! If no, why?
Thanks for your response. Yes, I'll invest in Oyo, Ola and maybe Zomato when the get to the market. The reason is that I feel they have genuinely transformed the way people think. My friends refer to bookimg rooms as "please book an Oyo". Few say please book a hotel. That brand equity is worth far more than a billion dollars in a nation of one and a half billion. I like Ola because I've been cheated less by them. Since you always need an OTP to start the ride, drivers cannot fool you. Also, they offer Auto Rickshaws which are actually available. And Zomato has become the google of Restaurant reviews, even outside India. They may fail, but I beleieve they have impacted enough lives to be worthy of being successful.
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Old 20th January 2018, 16:09   #220
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re: The Cryptocurrency & NFT Thread

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The counter argument is, the value provided by crypto currencies my not be from its dividend, it comes from its use as a product.
Agree. But this is where it gets tricky. How do you value something like that? What is the fair value? As you say, for a company, you can look at earnings & dividends.

This thinking of mine seems somewhat rational -

1) Cross border payments is a $1 trillion industry (some random number)
2) Bitcoin has 1% market share (some random number)
3) Bitcoin's current market cap should be $10 billion (1% of $1 trillion)
4) Fair value of bitcoin = $10 billion divided by bitcoins in circulation = $650

Quote:
If you use Ripple instead of SWIFT for cross border payments, you save money! Its this value proposition of XRP which gives it value! It doesn't matter if it is $0.18 or $3.5. It will always work the same, and it will always save you money over SWIFT. Its traded value is just a product of its popularity and in no way interferes with its core value proposition.
Correct. The price of XRP does not matter when you are about to make a transaction. If a cryptocurrency has a utility, then use it at the time of transaction. So why buy and hold XRP for the long term? Without having some hard data (like in the bitcoin example above) on extent of XRP's utility/ usage and if one is buying XRP, then isn't it pure speculation?

Quote:
If you use the Ethereum Blockchain to set up smart contracts based projects instead of making paper contracts, you save money on legal fees. It doesn't matter if ETH is trading $8 or $1400, you always save money. And as a side benefit, people helping run the Ethereum Blockchain also make a small amount of money in return for their contribution.
Yeah, speculation and 'investment' in ETH is not so bad. Ethereum projects will speed up innovation, because it gives entrepreneurs access to capital. It makes crowdfunding much simpler. Something good might come out of it in the future (see my Sirin Labs post No. 201 on this thread).

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nissan1180 View Post
Yes, I'll invest in Oyo, Ola and maybe Zomato when the get to the market. The reason is that I feel they have genuinely transformed the way people think.

Last edited by SmartCat : 20th January 2018 at 16:34.
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Old 20th January 2018, 17:16   #221
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re: The Cryptocurrency & NFT Thread

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Agree. But this is where it gets tricky. How do you value something like that? What is the fair value? As you say, for a company, you can look at earnings & dividends.

This thinking of mine seems somewhat rational -

1) Cross border payments is a $1 trillion industry (some random number)
2) Bitcoin has 1% market share (some random number)
3) Bitcoin's current market cap should be $10 billion (1% of $1 trillion)
4) Fair value of bitcoin = $10 billion divided by bitcoins in circulation = $650
Now we're firmly in currency territory.
$650 would be the value of BTC if it was an extremely liquid currency with no appreciation in value (like say INR). There would be no reason to hoard and HODL such a currency in the hope of future speculative gains.

BUT, since all of it is already in circulation (as per your calculations), if Bitcoin's market share of the global remittance business rises (due to its better value proposition), to be able to handle the extra business volume, the value needs to be increased (since more cannot be printed freely, supply is controlled).

If the value increases, people now realise that it is an appreciating asset, and start to hoard it. This reduces the money in circulation (similar to RBI increasing interest rates to curb money supply, spending and control spiralling inflation) and now it's value needs to be increased even more to conduct the same amount of business.

As of now, there is very small inflation and very small circulation. The domino effect of growth is unstoppable as long as the product is desirable.

In such a scenario, the "fair valuation" cannot be a specific number in US$ terms (which is high supply, freely printed and highly liquid due to extremely low interest rates). However, it can be defined as a slope, on a logarithmic scale chart.

As for altcoins, most of them share characteristics similar to Bitcoin and so a fair value for them can definitely be arrived at, at least in BTC terms.

BTC has been desparately trying to shoot itself in the foot and reduce this slope, by not following what Satoshi Nakamoto wrote in his original whitepaper. This has led to increasing transaction times and fees, i.e. less desirability of the product. And it is destined to plateau (sideways movement) and get replaced (a crash is a worst case scenario after a replacement has happened) if they don't fix it.


Quote:
Originally Posted by smartcat View Post
Correct. The price of XRP does not matter when you are about to make a transaction. If a cryptocurrency has a utility, then use it at the time of transaction. So why buy and hold XRP for the long term? Without having some hard data (like in the bitcoin example above) on extent of XRP's utility/ usage and if one is buying XRP, then isn't it pure speculation?
XRP has very large inflation as compared to BTC. 1Bn XRP is added to circulation every month. Thats around 2.5% of total supply. Hoarding it doesn't make sense, there are better "investments" around.

Quote:
Originally Posted by smartcat View Post
Yeah, speculation and 'investment' in ETH is not so bad. Ethereum projects will speed up innovation, because it gives entrepreneurs access to capital. It makes crowdfunding much simpler. Something good might come out of it in the future (see my Sirin Labs post No. 201 on this thread).
ETH as you said has a bigger value proposition leading to even more reason for hoarding than BTC. It will definitely beat BTC in the long run, if not in price/unit, at least in total market cap.
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Old 21st January 2018, 11:30   #222
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re: The Cryptocurrency & NFT Thread

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Banks are suspending accounts of Crypto-fiat gateways because they are scared that crypto will take away all the accounts (which they will, in half a decade).
Niti Aayog CEO Mr. Amitabh Kant agrees with my prediction. He has mentioned an intermediate step in his prediction, hence the shorter timeline.

http://m.hindustantimes.com/india-ne...751zBpBmI.html
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Old 21st January 2018, 12:25   #223
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re: The Cryptocurrency & NFT Thread

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Originally Posted by antz.bin View Post
Niti Aayog CEO Mr. Amitabh Kant agrees with my prediction. He has mentioned an intermediate step in his prediction, hence the shorter timeline.

http://m.hindustantimes.com/india-ne...751zBpBmI.html
I think Mr. Amitabh has said in context of cashless transaction and hence physical banks will be irrelevant in the future. It is not anyway linked to Cryptocurrency.
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Old 21st January 2018, 20:22   #224
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re: The Cryptocurrency & NFT Thread

I just realized that cryptocurrency trading will go on even if RBI bans trading or if exchanges are shutdown and even if Government brings out a law against it. That's because there are a large number of global peer to peer trading platforms

www.localbitcoins.com
www.localethereum.com
www.remitano.com

Money is transferred directly via NEFT or Paypal. Nobody can figure out what you bought / sold if authorities look at your account statement.

www.dether.io -> This one is likely to be a very popular with black money holders. You can buy cryptocurrencies with CASH. Ideal and ready infrastructure for Hawala operators to take cash out of the country.

Looks like cryptocurrency trading will stop only if prices crash.

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Old 24th January 2018, 15:24   #225
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re: The Cryptocurrency & NFT Thread

A most interesting article on Cryptos & Bitties. Reflects my views. No offense to those who have invested (best of luck) and to those who actually encashed their gains (anyone?). I am curious to see what posts this thread will receive in January 2019. There is a lot left for me to learn in life. after all I am only 70% of the way through (I think!). But one thing I have learnt is that you usually don't get rich and stay rich through the quick and short cut way.

http://thereformedbroker.com/2018/01...re-making-now/

The Fatal Mistake Crypto Investors are Making Now
Posted January 7, 2018 by Joshua M Brown

Quote:
What is Bitcoin actually worth?

Lately it’s hard to go a day without someone asking me a question about Bitcoin. What is it? Why is it so valuable? Should I buy some? How do I buy some? The guy down on the corner in the pawn/gold exchange shop said he can buy me one (yes, this is actually happening!). It seems Bitcoin and the crypto-currency craze has truly reached the mainstream and the implication of that are as of yet unknown. What we do know is that it’s attracting every shady crook and scam artist in the world. And why not? There really is tons of money to be made. I hope the following sheds some light on what Bitcoin is and isn’t.


Blockchain

Let’s start our discussion with the technology which made Bitcoin possible called “blockchain”. In very simple terms the blockchain technology is a record of all transactions ever done in Bitcoin. Imagine a gigantic piece of paper that lists every transaction ever completed. Then imagine that there are thousands of copies of this paper, and all of them are automatically updated when any two people agree to exchange Bitcoins. Every time a transaction takes place all these copies are checked for consistency to make sure you actually have the Bitcoins you claim to have. If everything checks out the new transaction is added to all the pieces of paper at once.
This is the heart of the truly genius idea that is blockchain, and it is what it makes it possible to have certainty over a Bitcoin balance someone owns, without needing any central party (like a bank) to verify it. If all the pieces of paper agree then the balance is correct, and trying to doctor or fake all the pieces of paper at once is impossible. The best (and worst) thing about this technology is that it has been made available for absolutely FREE to anyone who wants to use it.

Bitcoin is simply the oldest known use of the blockchain technology. Someone, a long time ago (in technology terms), decided to create a coin called a “Bitcoin” using blockchain and started trading it with other people. This was quickly picked up by all types of criminal and illegal activity providers as a way to exchange money without having to go through a bank. Fast forward a few years and everyone and their mother wants to own one because they saw it on TV.


Crypto-currencies or e-coins

The best (and worst) thing about blockchain technology is that its FREE, which means anyone can create a coin out of thin air, name it whatever they like, and start using it to trade with other people. It quite literally takes less than 24hrs to do so for someone with mediocre tech skills. The only difficult part is convincing suckers, err sorry, I mean lovely people, that the coin you created is worth something. This simple fact has led thousands of scam artists throughout the world to create their own coins and sell them to unsuspecting retirees and “I wanna get rich quick” targets. You may have heard there is a limit to the number of Bitcoins that can be created and therefore the supply is limited, which is in turn is used as a justification for its price. For a number of technical reasons this is true, however, there is absolutely no limit to the number of crypto-currencies that can be created. Have you heard of Bitcoin Cash? How about Bitcoin Gold? Bitcoin Silver? Ethereum? Litecoin? There is an even a Dogecoin, as in Dog e-coin. Yes I am NOT kidding, Google it. It was created as a joke and it now has a 700 million dollar market cap. Yup, they all exist, 1,365 different coins as of last count, and thousands more will be created as long as people are willing to throw real money at them. So much for the “you can’t make more of it!” argument.


Intrinsic Value vs. Market Value

How is it possible that something so easily created and with nothing to it other than a name and a story can be worth so much money? It all comes down to the difference between intrinsic and market value. Market value is simply determined by the difference between supply and demand. If the demand exceeds supply at any point in time then the price will go up and vice versa. You can easily observe this in the “wild” each Christmas. A few years ago it was the PlayStation 4 that was bought up by “investors” and re-sold at ridiculous premiums to desperate guilt-riddled parents wanting to make up for not being around all that much. The PS4’s sticker price was $500 but on eBay they were selling for well over $2,000. The demand for PS4’s far exceeded supply during that Christmas season time period.

Fast forward to 2017 and PS4’s are on sale for $299.

Has the PS4 changed since that $2,000 Christmas? Does it provide 10 times less value to its owners now than it did back then? Is it no longer able to play games or access Netflix? Does it have fewer games and less accessories? The answer is of course a big fat NO. So why is it so much cheaper? It’s because fewer people are competing to buy a far larger supply of PS4’s on the market. The PS4’s market value has changed drastically but it’s intrinsic value has moved very little. Gasoline has intrinsic value because you can burn it to move your car. In turn your car has intrinsic value because it can move you from place to place. Your stock holdings have intrinsic value because they are expected to eventually pay you dividends. Your home has intrinsic value because you can sleep in it and it can keep you warm and dry. Your dollars have intrinsic value because the government guarantees you can pay taxes and buy government services with them.
The intrinsic value of anything is simply the tangible value it provides and may or may not equal the market value at any one time. A good way to think about intrinsic value is as a floor to the value of any object. If the market value falls below that floor, enough people will simply choose to use the object rather than sell it, since they get more value out of keeping it. This in turns reduces supply and increases price back up to intrinsic value.
If there is a sudden interest in a product, market value often goes far above the intrinsic value, and then settles back down once the hype dies down. Thus financial bubbles of all kinds are born. In some cases calculating intrinsic value is fairly easy (bonds, loans, mortgages, investment real estate) and in other cases it’s much harder (new technologies, your own home, time spent with family).

The good news is that calculating the intrinsic value of Bitcoin is extremely easy! Let me get my calculator out…. Drum roll please…… It’s exactly….. $0!
It’s essentially the same thing as printing your own fraud-proof monopoly money. Should people stop wanting to buy your monopoly money, the only intrinsic value it will have is a certain bathroom function, which is still more than you can do with an e-coin.


Coins vs tech

Normally investors disagree on the intrinsic value of something and bring up arguments such future potential of a technology to justify various valuation. However, remember, Bitcoin is NOT a technology, it is an electronic piece of paper with transactions listed on it. Just a bunch of 1’s and 0’s in a bunch of computers backed by absolutely nothing. Block-chain itself is a very valuable technology freely available to anyone, however, you are NOT buying blockchain when you buy Bitcoin, you own none of the tech behind it. To illustrate imagine that someone had found a cure for cancer and posted the step-by-step instructions on how to make it on-line, freely available for anyone to use. Now imagine that the same person also created a product called Cancer-Pill using their own instructions, trade marked it, and started selling it to the highest bidders. I think we can all agree a cure for cancer is immensely valuable to society (blockchain may or may not be, we still have to see), however, how much is a Cancer-Pill worth? Initially, with no one else making cancer curing pills, and people hearing about the trade-marked name, it’s very likely the profits would be quite large and the price of the pill ridiculously high. However, as the money flows in, another person would without a doubt create a pill using the same freely available instructions and call it Cancer-Away. Cancer-away may not initially be as recognizable as Cancer-pill, so it might fetch a smaller price, but eventually both prices would converge as they are essentially the same thing. Over time, with more and more cancer curing pills with different names arriving on the market, the price of all of them would converge to something very close to the cost of production (ie. materials + time to make it). I think we can all agree this is a good thing, as it means the maximum number of people will be able to cure their cancer at the lowest possible price.

How does this apply to Bitcoin? Well, Bitcoin is simply the initial Cancer-Pill, but as mentioned above there are now 1,365 different “pills” in production and counting. While creating a cancer pill, even with step-by-step instructions, would require some materials, equipment and incur some costs, the production of a random generic e-coin costs pretty damn close to $0. All you need is a website and some hype. The bottom line is that while a cancer pill is very valuable, it would not be a good investment to buy up the pills for far above the cost of making them, if the formula for making them is freely available to anyone. Similarly buying Bitcoin, or any other e-coin, is a bad investment even if you truly believe block-chain technology will change the world. It’s amazing to see all these coins get created and their “inventors” claiming theirs is for some reason a slightly better version of blockchain and then selling you the damned coin instead of the supposedly superior tech! Next time you see one of these guys on TV notice how deftly they switch between the term “coin” and “blockchain” creating an illusion that it’s all the same thing. Believe me these people know exactly what they are doing.

So is it all just a giant pile of poop?

No, not at all, the technology used in creating Bitcoin is great. However, at this time, I’m not aware of anyone offering a good practical use for it. The problem with the current crop of e-coins and blockchain applications is easy to illustrate. Imagine for a second a world where only Bitcoin exists and you are going to buy some milk. What would be the price printed on that milk carton?

1 BTC? Or 1.5 BTC Or 2 BTC?

Aside from the fact that, at current prices, this would be some seriously expensive milk, the answer is that no price could be printed. That’s because if a price was printed, a poor grocery employee would have to sit there with an eraser and pencil, and every minute or so change the price. And then by the time you got to the cash register, the price would have changed again.
The point is that a real currencies primary “intrinsic” value is as a medium of exchange or a measuring stick for value. If a centimeter or inch on a measuring tape was constantly changing in physical size, it would not be particularly useful to ask for a 6 inch sub. It might end up being the size of an airplane. The thing that makes crypto-currencies such a speculative craze right now, their stratospheric increases in value, is also the reason the current crop will likely fail in their intended use as currencies. However, out of the ashes of that, it’s likely that a new use of blockchain will emerge. The decentralized fraud proof ledger might be used to keep track of balances in another exotic currency called the Canadian or US dollar or Euro.
On that note, if you still want to invest in e-coins, I would like to invite you to buy my brand new UB coin for only $1 per coin. I don’t have blockchain up yet, but I’ll keep track of all your purchases in my Excel, and the second I hit 2K I’ll spend the the 2 days to get the blockchain up and running. It’s your opportunity to get in on the ground floor before it’s worth $10,000 per coin!

Ahhh, sometimes I wish I had looser morals….

Last edited by V.Narayan : 24th January 2018 at 15:46.
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