[Samurai]

This is interesting... many exchanges are faking their volume to keep the investors (should we call them punters?) in the frenzy.

https://medium.com/@sylvainartplayri...e-ea1a3c1e0b5e

[V.Narayan]

Yo-ho any one home? We haven't heard from the investor community for a while. I hope you are in the money in case you haven't liquidated. would like to hear your experiences to the extent you are comfortable sharing.

[ragh_bhushan]

I cannot say much about any cyrptocurrency other than Bitcoin. As per my study and research, I have found that all of them (including Ethereum, Ripple etc) are opportunistic scams controlled by a few individuals or institutions. Bitcoin is the only one that is most decentralised of them all. Can any of the altcoins replace Bitcoin as the top cryptocurrency? Maybe. But there are not even signs of it yet.

Also, I don't like to call myself an investor as that would mean that I am looking to sell my Bitcoins for fiat in future for more than I bought it for. I just love the technology behind Bitcoin and am in total awe of the rapid pace at which things are developing in this community.

For people who are looking to invest but are still skeptical of how future might shape up, I highly recommend this article.

Quoting some texts and images here.

With the price of a bitcoin surging to new highs in 2017, the bullish case for investors might seem so obvious it does not need stating. Alternatively it may seem foolish to invest in a digital asset that isn’t backed by any commodity or government and whose price rise has prompted some to compare it to the tulip mania or the dot-com bubble. Neither is true; the bullish case for Bitcoin is compelling but far from obvious. There are significant risks to investing in Bitcoin, but, as I will argue, there is still an immense opportunity.

This quote sums up my feelings for Bitcoin.

I bought [bitcoins] at like $2300 and had an immediate double on my hands. Then I started saying “I can’t buy more of it,” as it rose, even though that’s an anchored opinion based on nothing other than the price where I originally got it. Then, as it fell over the last week because of a Chinese crackdown on the exchanges, I started saying to myself, “Oh good, I hope it gets killed so I can buy more.”

The best thing I like about Bitcoin is that it is so complicated yet so simple. Just like the maths and cryptography behind it. And since I love maths and statistics so much, I have done some modelling based on historical Bitcoin price and would like to share my probabilistic results here. Please do not take this as investment advice.

Probabilistically, I think these are the minimum prices we will see for Bitcoin in the near future.

31 March 2018 - $7,800
30 April 2018 - $9,000
31 May 2018 - $10,400
15 Aug 2018 - $15,000
31 Oct 2018 - $21,800
31 Dec 2018 - $29,000

As for the maximum, we don't need math modelling to show us the maximum potential for the bubble. In 2017 alone, we saw 20x price rise from $1000 in Jan to $20,000 in December.

The technology behind Bitcoin is just warming up with Segwit, Lightning Network, Tumblebit, Schnorr Signatures etc are just tip of the iceberg. The reason that makes me bullish on Bitcoin is not its increasing price against the dollar but the brilliant minds that are working on these fascinating technologies. We are truly living in the most exciting times since the invention of internet!

[V.Narayan]

Originally Posted by ragh_bhushan

I cannot say much about any cyrptocurrency other than Bitcoin. As per my study and research, I have found that all of them (including Ethereum, Ripple etc) are opportunistic scams controlled by a few individuals or institutions. Bitcoin is the only one that is most decentralised of them all. Can any of the altcoins replace Bitcoin as the top cryptocurrency? Maybe. But there are not even signs of it yet.

eventually governments or some body like the world bank may issue a crypto currency for reasons I do not fully understand but it could happen. Sweden is already moving or thinking in that direction.

Attachment 1744962
This quote sums up my feelings for Bitcoin.

I cannot agree with this chart which seems to have been drawn up by a bitcoin enthusiast. But never mind. I am not an investor nor have ever been.

The best thing I like about Bitcoin is that it is so complicated yet so simple. Just like the maths and cryptography behind it. And since I love maths and statistics so much, I have done some modelling based on historical Bitcoin price and would like to share my probabilistic results here. Please do not take this as investment advice.

Mathematics and me don't mix and I can categorically state I have no love for any maths taught beyond the 7th standard.

Probabilistically, I think these are the minimum prices we will see for Bitcoin in the near future.
31 March 2018 - $7,800
30 April 2018 - $9,000
31 May 2018 - $10,400
15 Aug 2018 - $15,000
31 Oct 2018 - $21,800
31 Dec 2018 - $29,000

You are a brave man to predict the future. My vote is for a number south of $3000 in December 2018. Lets revisit this in 9 months.

The technology behind Bitcoin is just warming up with Segwit, Lightning Network, Tumblebit, Schnorr Signatures etc are just tip of the iceberg. The reason that makes me bullish on Bitcoin is not its increasing price against the dollar but the brilliant minds that are working on these fascinating technologies. We are truly living in the most exciting times since the invention of internet!

Exciting with out doubt. Innovative yes. Will it become a part of the financial system one day - quite possible but the owner and controller will be a statutory regulator.

Just my two paisa above.

[Samurai]

Originally Posted by ragh_bhushan

For people who are looking to invest but are still skeptical of how future might shape up, I highly recommend this article.

Before reading the article, check the linkedin page of that author. Absolutely zero background in economics and finance. Which makes him yet another techie enamored with the technology side of crypto currency while ignoring the economic aspects of a currency.

That chart is downright silly. A half-baked system that has never been used for transactions is being compared with gold and fiat currency which has centuries of history.

[ragh_bhushan]

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

eventually governments or some body like the world bank may issue a crypto currency for reasons I do not fully understand but it could happen.

The entire premise of Bitcoin is to remove the need for a trusted third party. Governments issuing their own cryptocurrency will have no distinguishing merit to it from the perils of traditional fiat system.

I cannot agree with this chart which seems to have been drawn up by a bitcoin enthusiast.

So we agree to disagree.

You are a brave man to predict the future. My vote is for a number south of $3000 in December 2018. Lets revisit this in 9 months.

I am no brave man. Just went down the Bitcoin tech rabbit hole and got mighty impressed by what I saw. Let's say it is $3,000 per Bitcoin in Dec 2018. Isn't that mind boggling in itself? A piece of code worth more than 50 grams of gold.

Will it become a part of the financial system one day - quite possible but the owner and controller will be a statutory regulator.

Again, agree to disagree.

Originally Posted by Samurai

Before reading the article, check the linkedin page of that author. Absolutely zero background in economics and finance. Which makes him yet another techie enamored with the technology side of crypto currency while ignoring the economic aspects of a currency.

It would have been much fruitful discussion if we could debate over the compelling points raised by the author rather than his personal credentials. There are enough economists and finance gurus who share the views of the author. Does that add weight to the article? The point is it really doesn't matter who says what. A person believes what they want to believe.

Agreed, the author has no experience or background in economics and finance. It is my view that disruption calls for irrational thinking. When you are looking to change the world, the very things that have been taught to you and that you have experienced in life will only go so far as to visualising the future from inside the box.

Most of the disruptive technology that seem obvious to us today and that we take for granted started out as absolutely terrible and irrational ideas. Who would have thought that a company that lets you search things on the internet would be worth billions of dollars in the 90s? A site that lets to blabber in 160 words or less is now worth more than 20 Billion!

Agreed that for every successful disruptive idea that worked, there must have been 1000s that failed. Will Bitcoin be the one to fail? Only future can tell us. Till now, all signs point us in the direction that it's growing and that too exponentially.

That chart is downright silly. A half-baked system that has never been used for transactions is being compared with gold and fiat currency which has centuries of history.

Yes, Bitcoin does not have a long history and that is the reason author deemed fit to grade it a "D" on the parameter of "Established History".

[Samurai]

Originally Posted by ragh_bhushan

The entire premise of Bitcoin is to remove the need for a trusted third party.

Why eliminate this very useful feature? Has been discussed before.

Originally Posted by ragh_bhushan

It would have been much fruitful discussion if we could debate over the compelling points raised by the author rather than his personal credentials.

I have had this discussion every time a new crypto enthusiast finds this thread. Start reading this thread from the beginning and you will find that I have made my arguments, and therefore find no reason to repeat it again.

Originally Posted by ragh_bhushan

Most of the disruptive technology that seem obvious to us today and that we take for granted started out as absolutely terrible and irrational ideas. Who would have thought that a company that lets you search things on the internet would be worth billions of dollars in the 90s? A site that lets to blabber in 160 words or less is now worth more than 20 Billion!

No, Google or Twitter or even Facebook delivered a value that was non-existent or less explored before. They didn't try to replace something useful with a totally useless thing.

I asked this question before to you. What is the problem bitcoin is solving? And what is the value bitcoin in bringing to us, if it is not solving any existing problem.

[ragh_bhushan]

I have had this discussion every time a new crypto enthusiast finds this thread. Start reading this thread from the beginning and you will find that I have made my arguments, and therefore find no reason to repeat it again.

Agreed. All points have been discussed thoroughly in this thread before. I have added the link to the article as it covers all the arguments from the other side at one place.

No, Google or Twitter or even Facebook delivered a value that was non-existent or less explored before. They didn't try to replace something useful with a totally useless thing.

Utility and usefulness is relative IMHO. What is useless to one person can be very useful to some other and what price a person is willing to pay for this utility is perhaps decided by the market. Apart from people who are looking to get-rich-quick with Bitcoin, there are still some who believe in its utility and usefulness in the long run.

I asked this question before to you. What is the problem bitcoin is solving? And what is the value bitcoin in bringing to us, if it is not solving any existing problem.

I have answered this question in the post whose link you have posted above. Let me try to answer that again. Bitcoin is solving different problems for different people in different parts of the world. For me Bitcoin is

• Convenient long term store of value
• Censorship resistant asset
• A tool for instant global payments

No, I do not trust my banks, governments or other regulatory bodies to take monetary decisions which are best for me or my country. The recent loan scams are not adding to my confidence either.

Adding a video for humour's sake.

https://youtu.be/YHjYt6Jm5j8

[SmartCat]

Originally Posted by ragh_bhushan

Quoting some texts and images here.

The grades are unfair!

For gold -> D grade for portability? C grade for divisibility?

For Fiat -> Almost everything. Looks like the author got bored half way through and slapped B grade all over. When it comes to fiat currency, he is thinking along the lines of "currency notes". From what I understand, only 10% of currency produced is in paper form.

[Samurai]

Originally Posted by ragh_bhushan

Convenient long term store of value

What is wrong with traditional store of wealth like land, gold, stocks, mutual funds, FD, etc? Most of these do beat the inflation.

Originally Posted by ragh_bhushan

Censorship resistant asset

You want to invest in illegal assets, or indulge in tax evasion? Can't say I applaud this one.

Originally Posted by ragh_bhushan

A tool for instant global payments

I regularly do it using credit cards and wire transfer. Never fails, really.

None of them is a problem, that needs to be solved afresh. I already mentioned alternatives we already have available.

Originally Posted by ragh_bhushan

No, I do not trust my banks, governments or other regulatory bodies to take monetary decisions which are best for me or my country.

So you don't use fiat money? You don't use a bank or any government service? You prefer bartering at the nearby provision store, or have you moved to a remote island and have become self sufficient? I don't understand how a modern individual can survive in a society without trusting local currency for day to day transactions.

Originally Posted by ragh_bhushan

The recent loan scams are not adding to my confidence either.

How much money did you lose due to the loan scams?

[ragh_bhushan]

Originally Posted by Samurai

What is wrong with traditional store of wealth like land, gold, stocks, mutual funds, FD, etc? Most of these do beat the inflation.

Please refer to the chart I have shared above. We have established that we have a difference of opinion here on its fairness.

You want to invest in illegal assets, or indulge in tax evasion? Can't say I applaud this one.

I was not aware that buying, selling and possession of Bitcoins is illegal in India. Request you to point to government notification that was issued towards making Bitcoin illegal. I have been paying my taxes ever since I started earning and will continue to pay every tax that is due on me.

Last I checked Bitcoin is illegal in 5 countries: Saudi Arabia, Bangladesh, Kyrgyzstan, Bolivia and Ecuador. Countries where it is legal include US, Canada, Japan, most of the European countries. If a government decides to ban Bitcoin in its country, then there are far serious questions on the intent of such government that needs to be asked. Here is a link to check the legal status of Bitcoin around the world.

I regularly do it using credit cards and wire transfer. Never fails, really.

Good for you. I have had at least 15 instances in only the past 2 years where the payments got stuck for days and weeks. Took lot of escalation and ton of email exchanges to resolve the issues. For both personal as well as business purposes.

So you don't use fiat money? You don't use a bank or any government service? You prefer bartering at the nearby provision store, or have you moved to a remote island and have become self sufficient? I don't understand how a modern individual can survive in a society without trusting local currency for day to day transactions.

This is like saying if I own gold, I must use it for every single transaction. Right from buying groceries to paying utility bill etc. Bitcoin's use case as a currency has a long way to go. As with other currencies that have existed in the past, it usually goes through following stages:

1. Collectible
2. Store of value
3. Medium of exchange
4. Unit of account

What happens in the future is to be seen.

How much money did you lose due to the loan scams?

You are right. Perhaps we should wait for another banking crisis like the one of 2007-08 to see the effects of bad loans on the economy. But I guess it only affects giant economies like the US. India is immune to such non-sense.

[Thad E Ginathom]

Finding the blockchain technology exciting is absolutely no reason whatsoever to invest in a product that uses it.

This is like going to some financial-product company and asking if their developers use linked lists. Wow, if so, the product must be good, right? You are right. Perhaps we should wait for another banking crisis like the one of 2007-08 to see the effects of bad loans on the economy. But I guess it only affects giant economies like the US. India is immune to such non-sense.

You are right. Perhaps we should wait for another banking crisis like the one of 2007-08 to see the effects of bad loans on the economy. But I guess it only affects giant economies like the US. India is immune to such non-sense.

Perhaps you worked for Axis Bank haha-so-called-Wealth-Management-dept back then, when their lack of understanding (I expected them to have at least a bit more than me) cost me 20 lakh.

[Chetan_Rao]

Originally Posted by ragh_bhushan

...Perhaps we should wait for another banking crisis like the one of 2007-08 to see the effects of bad loans on the economy. But I guess it only affects giant economies like the US. India is immune to such non-sense.

I'd like to believe the quoted comment is sarcastic and you forgot the '/s'.

Just in case you were being serious, I've got a bridge to sell you. The best and 100% safe from bad financial practices!

[ragh_bhushan]

Originally Posted by Chetan_Rao

I'd like to believe the quoted comment is sarcastic and you forgot the '/s'.

Correct sir

Just in case you were being serious, I've got a bridge to sell you. The best and 100% safe from bad financial practices!

I did not understand.

Let me share a couple of more articles that visualise the future and how we have created an economic mess that we are in today. These seem like wishful thinking and pipe dream as of now but there is an active community working towards this dream.

THE YEAR IS 2050: WE RECOVERED FROM AN ECONOMIC COLLAPSE AND THE WORLD IS NOW BETTER — PART 1

THE YEAR IS 2050: WE RECOVERED FROM AN ECONOMIC COLLAPSE AND THE WORLD IS NOW BETTER — PART 2

[Thad E Ginathom]

Originally Posted by ragh_bhushan

Correct sir

Then please excuse my misunderstanding: the sarcasm was too subtle for me!