[CarguyNish]

Originally Posted by lHarpreetl

In another move to lower the pressure now you can Select petrol pumps to dispense cash up to Rs 2,000 from today
http://toi.in/SAVd8a/a19ei

This won't work, Dealers aren't ready to suffer for this Short Term Impact. Many Petrol Pumps don't have cash dispensing machines. Also, if new Machines are required it's not an easy job. Creating Account, then paying Deposit, keeping a Operator, Maintaining records of each transaction etc. This isn't an easy & quick job. It will take time & apart from releasing pressure at Bank no other thing would work.

Then the fact that these Dealers won't get a thing from this, they will oppose unless something dramatic is in their favour. This idea will be Flop I guess.

[poloman]

Originally Posted by CarguyNish

This won't work, Dealers aren't ready to suffer for this Short Term Impact. Many Petrol Pumps don't have cash dispensing machines. Also, if new Machines are required it's not an easy job. Creating Account, then paying Deposit, keeping a Operator, Maintaining records of each transaction etc. This isn't an easy & quick job. It will take time & apart from releasing pressure at Bank no other thing would work.

Then the fact that these Dealers won't get a thing from this, they will oppose unless something dramatic is in their favour. This idea will be Flop I guess.

Again people are jumping in to conclusion with out ascertaining facts. All you need to do is just swipe in the POS machine for the amount. The pump guy will give you cash. No machine required.

[SilentEngine]

Originally Posted by poloman

I am not getting this point. 100Rs or less notes are not demonetized. 500 and 1000 have gone and replaced by 2000. Agree that there will be some problem in getting change. Is it so severe? How were they previously getting change for 500 and 1000 for nominal purchases. Even before there was difficulty in getting change for 500 and 1000 for nominal purchases like bus ticket and pani puri on road side.

Problem is in the gap in value between Rs 100 and Rs 2000 (20x). When 500s and 1000s were in use, there was flexibility in how one could transact. Someone buying for Rs 600-700 would have easily worked with either 1000s or 500s, now it's not so easy with 2000s.
Also the fact that 500s and 1000s accounted for 85% of total currency value doesn't help the cause.

Originally Posted by CarguyNish

This won't work, Dealers aren't ready to suffer for this Short Term Impact. Many Petrol Pumps don't have cash dispensing machines. Also, if new Machines are required it's not an easy job. Creating Account, then paying Deposit, keeping a Operator, Maintaining records of each transaction etc. This isn't an easy & quick job. It will take time & apart from releasing pressure at Bank no other thing would work.

Then the fact that these Dealers won't get a thing from this, they will oppose unless something dramatic is in their favour. This idea will be Flop I guess.

Interestingly, this move was initiated by "All India Petroleum Dealers Association", so dealers are very much for this. This was a best known "jugaad", withdrawing cash from petrol bunks by swiping cards, now it's out in the open.

How do they plan on accounting for these cash withdrawals? What happens to 'surcharges' that get added?

[ecenandu]

Originally Posted by CarguyNish

This won't work, Dealers aren't ready to suffer for this Short Term Impact.

Originally Posted by poloman

Again people are jumping in to conclusion with out ascertaining facts. All you need to do is just swipe in the POS machine for the amount. The pump guy will give you cash. No machine required.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZLBr33oAr3U

This one is in malayalam.

Like this one, They carry 2,00,000 rupees at a time, they do multiple trips.

[mayankk]

Demonetization-Modi-govt-may-need-six-more-months-to-replac.html

Mumbai: For people expecting respite from the government’s clampdown on cash, here’s a reality check: it probably won’t come soon.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s administration may need until May 2017 to replenish the stock of now worthless bills, according to Saumitra Chaudhuri, an economist who advised Modi’s predecessor. The government on 8 November banned Rs500 and Rs1,000 notes in a surprise move against graft and tax evasion.

Delays in replacing the currency risk prolonging the pain in the $2 trillion economy, where about 98% of consumer payments are made in cash. Deutsche Bank AG predicts the crunch could easily shave off a half-point from India’s growth in October-December, which could imperil its position as the world’s fastest-growing major market.

This is how Chaudhuri reached his conclusion, which he published in a blog post on the Economic Times’ website: Extrapolating from central bank data, he estimates that Modi’s move sucked out about 16.6 billion notes of the 500-denomination, and 6.7 billion Rs1,000 bills. That means more than 23 billion notes totaling Rs15 trillion.

Modi intends to replace these with new Rs2,000 and Rs500 bills. However, Bharatiya Reserve Bank Note Mudran Pvt., which prints the higher denomination currency, has a stated capacity of just 1.3 billion notes a month. That’s with working double shifts. Raise this to triple shifts and it becomes 2 billion bills, which means it will need until the end of 2016 to replenish in value the Rs1,000 notes.

Security Printing & Minting Corporation of India Ltd, whose capacity Chaudhuri estimates at 1 billion pieces a month, will need several more months to meet the Rs500 target, even if it joins forces with BRBNM, he said.

“Ergo, currency shortages will remain with us for many months and economic contraction will rule this period,” he wrote. “At the end of the period, confidence will be at new lows and recovery will take time.”

In what could make matters worse, the presses -- busy with the new bills -- have almost completely stopped printing Rs100 notes, Bloomberg Quint reported Wednesday citing central bank sources it didn’t name. These bills are the bread-and-butter of India’s $780 billion informal economy, which employs more than 90% of the workforce.

Finance ministry spokesman D.S. Malik rejected the assessment. “This is not correct, things will improve shortly,” he said. “Once supply of Rs 500 and Rs 100 notes increases and re-calibration of ATMs is over, which is underway on a fast pace, the situation will improve to a huge extent.”

The ministry’s officials, however, admitted the government is falling far short of meeting requirements for Rs100 notes. They declined to be identified, citing rules on speaking with the media.

In a teary-eyed appeal, Modi on Sunday requested Indians to bear the pain for 50 days. “After that, if any fault is found in my intentions or my actions, I am willing to suffer any punishment given by the country,” he said.

[heavenlybull]

Originally Posted by mayankk

Demonetization-Modi-govt-may-need-six-more-months-to-replac.html




This is how Chaudhuri reached his conclusion, which he published in a blog post on the Economic Times’ website: Extrapolating from central bank data, he estimates that Modi’s move sucked out about 16.6 billion notes of the 500-denomination, and 6.7 billion Rs1,000 bills. That means more than 23 billion notes totaling Rs15 trillion.

Is this 23 billion notes figure including the black money? If so, the amount of new notes that need to be printed will be much less. Furthermore, more and more people will transfer over to digital payment mechanisms, and open bank accounts now, reducing the cash circulation.

[mayankk]

Originally Posted by heavenlybull

Is this 23 billion notes figure including the black money? If so, the amount of new notes that need to be printed will be much less. Furthermore, more and more people will transfer over to digital payment mechanisms, and open bank accounts now, reducing the cash circulation.

It would be the total notes, black or white. They DO know, I hope, how much the printing mills have made of the two.

[carwatcher]

I am sure most of the people or experts would decide against such a brave decision if they are made PM, due to various reasons and public inconvenience is one of them.

But remember it takes guts of steel to take responsibility single handedly for a decision that affects every single person out of 1.2 Billion people.

Rather than spreading intense negativity it would help greatly if everyone does his bit to support the govt and even if not govt then the poor common man about whom everyone is concerned.

Read many posts on odd-even thread, Sunfilm ban thread or even few others thread where the Govt is cursed for doing nothing or taking easy route of populist decisions, now even with such unpopular decisions, we complain ad infinitum.

I also suddenly started to feel better that the status quo was so good and we were living in such a perfect environment. Maybe because we were used to mediocrity for so long that we gave up.

Also do remember that no one from the media or opposition is criticising RBI Governor, etc because he was appointed deputy governor by the previous govt.

I remember reading somewhere that 'In the process of becoming Modi-haters, they didn't realise when they turned into India-haters.'

I am also waiting for the response of Trump who is facing the exact resistance from the so called Liberals but the difference between him and our PM is that he is super rich, hot-headed and loud mouthed and now the most powerful person on the earth, exciting times ahead.

[poloman]

Originally Posted by carwatcher

But remember it takes guts of steel to take responsibility single handedly for a decision that affects every single person out of 1.2 Billion people.

.

Though it was more out of sheer desperation, in 1991 Govt's step of pledging gold reserves overseas was met with same cries of ignorance. In Kerala and all rumours were spread women won't be able to get gold ornaments for their marriage. We all know what happened after bold steps in 1991. The country changed its direction. This is one such step. So once in a while such reboot is required for the betterment of the country. It may be bad politics. But it is good leader's sign that you put your country first than few votes.

[hothatchaway]

Originally Posted by mayankk

This is how Chaudhuri reached his conclusion, which he published in a blog post on the Economic Times’ website: Extrapolating from central bank data, he estimates that Modi’s move sucked out about 16.6 billion notes of the 500-denomination, and 6.7 billion Rs1,000 bills. That means more than 23 billion notes totaling Rs15 trillion.

Modi intends to replace these with new Rs2,000 and Rs500 bills. However, Bharatiya Reserve Bank Note Mudran Pvt., which prints the higher denomination currency, has a stated capacity of just 1.3 billion notes a month. That’s with working double shifts. Raise this to triple shifts and it becomes 2 billion bills, which means it will need until the end of 2016 to replenish in value the Rs1,000 notes.

Security Printing & Minting Corporation of India Ltd, whose capacity Chaudhuri estimates at 1 billion pieces a month, will need several more months to meet the Rs500 target, even if it joins forces with BRBNM, he said.
[/i]

This move will hopefully goad a greater number of citizens to use cheques, NEFT, even mobile wallets instead of cash. If that is the case, the reliance on paper notes should also reduce hopefully, especially the higher denomination ones. While it may not be an overnight transition and many of those belonging to the lower income groups will still rely on Rs 100 notes, those who can afford to transact Rs 500/1000 notes are also likely to be in a position to open bank accounts/use mobile wallets.

In addition to tackling corruption, this should also take us to the next level of evolution, namely a more inclusive banking system. I remember when I first heard the news I assumed the primary intent was to battle counterfeit notes from coming from across the border. Not only is it that, but also corruption and also a habit changing move. Many fruit and vegetable vendors are also taking to mobile wallets, trust the dispossessed ones to be adaptive to change.

PS - Here is a thought, what if the execution of the policy (which seems to attract the most criticism and not the policy itself) was not half as bad and the deaths - regrettable as they are - had not happened? What would the critics of the policy have said then? The ruling party tipped off their associates?

[carwatcher]

I have also made few observations :

1) Was the Govt unprepared or badly prepared - I think not and as this is first of a kind such decision was taken (don't tell abt 1978 when 5% of currency notes were exchanged) some allowance should be given to the Govt.

2) Was it improperly executed : Maybe the Govt trusted its people but who started forming cartels and increased the line and now with indelible ink that problem has been somehow addressed. Also do remember that not only Govt but the public is also expected to co-operate otherwise any scheme will flop.

3) Is the Govt confused : Certainly NOT. By changing strategies, revising guidelines, can be seen as confused, one can also equate it to war where the strategies are reviewed and revised on urgent basis. In fact, many people at ATMs were using three-four cards reflect our mentality (of so called educated people) towards the fellow countrymen and many people complained that only one ATM card must be allowed so that more people get benefitted. Now if Govt trusts its people, it's cursed and if they don't they are cursed too.

I strongly feel that our country is used to that attitude of 'if you want a easy and peaceful job, join a PSU bank or apply for teaching job in a Govt school.' This also affecting the speed with which the currency conversion can be achieved in quick time. I have experienced that first hand especially with SBI staff.

[PetrolRider]

For last 1 week, I was in observer mode, looking at few banks surrounding my society and talking with my friends and relatives who are at different parts of India. My observations, sorry for this extra long post.

Let me clarify, I hardly depend on cash. All I use in cash are basically at month end when we have to pay our maids, milk and other delivery guys and rests of the expenses are with Credit Cards for all in the family. End of the story, the move did not Impact me at all. My point is not the above, but basically what I am seeing the trends.


Scenario 1, the snacks sellers in front of our office generally gather good business. For last 1 and ½ year I am shifted to this office, I have never seen anyone giving them any Rs 500 / Rs 1000 note, may be few times with a Rs 500 note but never the Rs 1000 one. Those vendors also hate you if you take out an Rs 100 note. Today, those guys are the most hit. I wonder have the Govt. banned Rs 1000&Rs 500 notes or Rs 10 & Rs 20 notes including the 1 and 2 rupee coins.

Scenario 2, I had few Rs 500 notes, a very few not even to the limit, I got them exchanged with few Rs 100s. From that moment I am in market to spend them, the currency should in move. Alas, they are still with me, as none of the shops or vendors suddenly have no Rs 10 or Rs 20 for change.
My observation, people have got panicked and started hoarding currency notes those are legal. If we don’t circulate the legal currency we have, there is no way that any measure can help us.

Scenario 3, there are 7 banks and more than 10 ATMs near my society, all are functional. The area has a IT park with separate banks and ATMs within them for their employees. Max there would be 5 lac people residing here, less if we count the families. It is more than 10 days and still there are ½ km queue in front of them. We might have ATMs who dispense people.
My observation, as this move most of the people in urban area have 3 works at max to do in a bank, deposit your old currency, withdraw through your check upto 10K and exchange a few more note if you want some more change. A 5 lac population, even they do all those 3 activities, there should not be a queue after 5 days. It goes back to my previous assumption, we are hoarding currencies way beyond we don’t need.

Scenario 4, I was in the queue twice, 1st when the cash ran out on the second day after the announcement and 2nd to get my cash changed. I see repeat users in queue. People are putting their old parents, school going kids and friends in the queue with few gaps of let say 10 people. Each of them has a declaration and a check to withdraw. Common, even Ambani would not need 1 lac in cash for a month.

Situation similar in majority of the other cities where my friends and relatives stays.

A major difference, is my father who stays in my native, Bhubaneswar. Yesterday, he conformed; he visited 3 banks, SBI main branch and SBI personal branch, with hardly any people in them. All of his banking needs were over in just 5 min and also the bank guys had time to have a chat. The last branch, a Canara bank just opposite our house, have 10 in number total people standing in teller counter, total.
My observation, I may need to buy a flight ticket before month end to pay my maids.

[ptushar]

When 26% of your economy has turned into a black economy then dire steps are required. Yes, one can argue (in hindsight) that the implementation is poor. But for the scale and size of this operation and they fact that secrecy was the key, one should expect things to go wrong. But if this move is good for us for the long run, then a few months of hardship is not such a bad idea.

Let us try and help out the needy at this time, rather than spreading rumours or negativity. The step is already taken. And if (for some reason) the government is forced into backtracking on this then we citizens will repent for our life that we had that one chance to change this country and we blew it. And then the hoarders will find a new kind of confidence that *nothing* can ever touch them. It will be a victory for the cheats and yet another defeat for the honest.

[rdhawan15]

The problem is not only that 26% of our economy had elements of black money. The bigger problem is that these black money hoarders had monopolized trade and would rig prices at their whim and fancy. Look at what happened with 'Arhar Dal' or for that matter tomatoes. How does the Government control prices unless it breaks the cartel of wholesalers in the commodity and vegetable markets. Then there are issues of national security including Kashmir and North East.

Yes, this step of demonetization is in the right direct. There is obviously pain associated with it during the transition. Give sometime for transition period to roll over and the final deliverable should help the country at large.

[sudev]

Veeresh Malik, journalist and a friend, writes this:

Pretty much everybody aspires to live in a fair and equitable society where money is treated more as a medium rather than an asset BUT as soon as they arrive at that stage where their own cashless comfort zones are in position, they start dreaming about perpetuating a sub-class who perforce needs to stay on in the dark ages.
"Cash only" is one way of perpetuating the "serfs and the rulers" kind of culture. Which is why almost 100% of the howl for a revert to cash is king are from those who have seen the benefits of cashless.
And/or, ofcourse, from those who benefit from cash is king. How else, after all, to give just two examples, would the very similar stolen car and lousy education businesses in India operate, if it weren't for cash is king?
Within this same India -
# The milk revolution has been cashless along the supply chain, whether you owned one cow, buffalo or goat, and that's why there is no shortage of milk all-India. Sugar co-ops, which were started at about the same time, are still in cash mode, and you can see what that means especially in MH.
# ITC e-Chaupal, Safal/Mother, BigBasket and more, non-APEDA mandis, Food Parks and more, wherever local elected representatives did not put blocks, are also cashless from farm to retailer and sometimes farm to fork.
# The poultry business, wherever not blocked by local retailers, is another example of cashless supply chains. The meat business, on the other hand, is not.
This dreaming of cash only reminds me of the "now that I have arrived, let us shut the door behind us" culture that so many of us face when we try to break through the glass ceilings of the neo-colonials.
It will change. Fake sympathy for "the poor" will not work anymore. If you really care for "the poor", find out down your supply chain, friends, family, co-workers, employers and more - who all are still on cash and who can be converted to cashless with your intervention?
You still want cash is king?

Opinions?