[kiku007]

Originally Posted by avanishphatak

Having such diversity population and cultures, comes with all kinds of problems.
But lets sit back and appreciate the fact that our diversity will become the strength for the future.
Sure, it may take us a decade or two.


Interesting talk by Nandan Nilekani on our demographic dividend.

That video was posted in May-2009. A decade has gone. How many more such decades should pass?

[V.Narayan]

Originally Posted by kiku007

That video was posted in May-2009. A decade has gone. How many more such decades should pass?

Answer - At least another 5 to 7 decades. Nation building takes a century and more. 7 decades have been invested. A further 7 are needed. Just look at the challenges of black equality in USA today - more than 150 years since 1865. Cynicism may be warranted but doesn't help.

[kiku007]

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

Answer - At least another 5 to 7 decades. Nation building takes a century and more. 7 decades have been invested. A further 7 are needed. Just look at the challenges of black equality in USA today - more than 150 years since 1865. Cynicism may be warranted but doesn't help.

Blind optimism helps?

I'm not taking away the credit for the progress made in 7 decades. But I'm sorry to say that it isn't enough for even a quarter of the population.

And the selective comparison with The U.K (Apparent GDP position) and The USA (in-equality in some sections) may satisfy some egos and doesn't help with anything else.

[srishiva]

I think with all the technological advancements that have happened, its moot point comparing us to other nations in terms of rate of development.
Right from the time we gained independence, we devised a very lazy system that encouraged corruption and incompetence. Now its all informally part of the system. Need a real hard scrub. Its akin to the Indian saying of you get below the mat, they will get below the rangoli (them, the villains)

[V.Narayan]

Originally Posted by kiku007

Blind optimism helps?
I'm not taking away the credit for the progress made in 7 decades. But I'm sorry to say that it isn't enough for even a quarter of the population.

Our views are formed based on our experiences, victories, failures, frustrations, gains, losses and so many other factors. I respect your views though I don't agree with your cynicism and I'm sure you respect mine. Both of us have experience of both India and the West and have taken away different lessons and views. What I have seen in almost 4 decades of adult hood gives me very strong optimism for the future while remaining conscious of the schisms in our nation and society. To each his own.

[PGA]

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

Between 1980 and 2018 while we went from 13 to 7 and now moving to #5 in 2019. Let’s see what happened to others who were clustered around our ranking back then. South Africa at #14 is now #19...... We must not forget the poverty, dis-organization, weak institutions and poor Government that still dogs us.

Onwards and upwards. Let’s take the next hill. Nation building takes several generations.

Sir, I feel we cannot take our progress for granted howsoever certain it may look today. We have far too many challenges to overcome, and never in any nation's history the progress has been linear and without sacrifice.

Our governance and other national standards are on a slide instead of moving up. National discourse has taken a very funny turn, instead of pragmatism, rule of law and logic, populism and 'might is right' seems to be taking over facets of our social and national life. Each of our so called leaders are going over the other to promise greater populism and running down already weakened institutions. At times I feel that presently we are cooking a recipe for disaster before demographic easing in another 30 or 40 years automatically sorts out our problems and two generations hence we will be able to proclaim that we have arrived. There will also be sacrifices to make along the way.

BTW 'Onwards and Upwards' was the motto of my school and good to hear it being used to propel ourselves forward.

[kiku007]

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

Our views are formed based on our experiences, victories, failures, frustrations, gains, losses and so many other factors. I respect your views though I don't agree with your cynicism and I'm sure you respect mine. Both of us have experience of both India and the West and have taken away different lessons and views. What I have seen in almost 4 decades of adult hood gives me very strong optimism for the future while remaining conscious of the schisms in our nation and society. To each his own.

I absolutely respect your views. Similarly don't dismiss others views as being cynical. What I've stated is not a subjective personal opinion. It's based on real facts out there.

On the lighter side, there might be people who think you are cynical for saying that India needs 50-70 more years to develop. In their opinion, half was accomplished in the last 5 and they only ask for 5 more.

[sgiitk]

We have the momentum, so I will not be surprised. Remember all these on a PPP basis, since the population can make a big difference as well as the cost of living. However, I think we are now on the cusp of becoming a nation which is not a developing nation any more.

[V.Narayan]

Originally Posted by sgiitk

Remember all these on a PPP basis, since the population can make a big difference as well as the cost of living. However, I think we are now on the cusp of becoming a nation which is not a developing nation any more.

These GDP figures are on a nominal ie current exchange rate basis and not a PPP basis. On PPP basis India is third behind China and USA in that order. Those like you & me who have seen the '70s and '80s can better appreciate the change for the better. For a 30 year old it isn't good enough because the comparison base has changed.

[saisree]

Originally Posted by PGA

Our governance and other national standards are on a slide instead of moving up. National discourse has taken a very funny turn, instead of pragmatism, rule of law and logic, populism and 'might is right' seems to be taking over facets of our social and national life. Each of our so called leaders are going over the other to promise greater populism and running down already weakened institutions. .

Fully agree with this. It takes at least one more generation to fully utilize the fruits of the measures taken to build this nation. Large part of the population during the independence were not educated, were un-employed, below poverty levels and they needed some populist measures from the Govt., Now the literacy levels have improved, people understand the dynamics of the society but the populism hasn't changed.

Its the duty of the current generation to have faith in the nation and sow seeds for the betterment of the society, be optimistic and be happy of being the 5th largest economy.

I'm sure India will be the nation to go soon.

[RaviK]

To start with, this is my first post on Team-BHP Hope it makes sense !

As few others have pointed out, there has been a sea change in past few decades. For example, see the below pic -


Image courtesy - Google

I have a picture of me (from early 80s), with almost the same setup !!

Look at this bus, carrying people on its roof !! This was a frequent transport mode for me during late school years.

Image courtesy - Google

Being in UK for past few years, I agree with many of the points mentioned by other folks, however please note that India of 80s was so different from today (especially in smaller town/villages), that today it seems like a different country. There were so many with limited/no access to resources, that they had to resort to desperate measures to get ahead in life.

Imagine use of wood, to cook food, since LPG availability was low/logistics was challenging (the nearest gas agency was 90 KM from my place!), or travelling 10 km to nearby city, just to make a phone call, to a far away relative (no telephones available)

I can go on and on, however the point is, that life was so deprived of what we consider basic essentials today, that even smallest of things looked like an achievement (like sitting on a bench for the first time, in your new school!).

Compare this to today, where in the same village I described above, multiple school buses come every day, picking children from their doorsteps, people own cars and bikes, wide roads, accessible healthcare, almost all the life essentials are available to people (and most of them can afford these too).

On a broader level too, unprecedented changes have altered the way people found jobs/earned/spent/lived the overall life few decades earlier. For example, the contribution of agriculture to GDP has gone down from approx. 40% in 80s to 17% in 2018, with only 50% being dependent on agriculture now (the figure was ~70% in 80s). The growth that has taken place in past few decades has allowed so many people to look for new avenues, who would otherwise be toiling in the fields!!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agriculture_in_India

So while our lawlessness may annoy us, absence of road manners may make our blood boil, corruption may make us worry about our future and various civil disorders may seem as a threat to our social fabric, lets not forget that we have come a long long way in past 3 decades or so.

Definitely, we will get there some day

[wheelguy]

Given the current scenario, can we trump U.K. by the end of 2019 to enter top 5 economies of the world again?

Originally Posted by AMG Power

UK is 2,43,610 sq kms while India is 32,87,263 sq kms - that's 13.5x times bigger in size - that's more natural resources and avenues for increasing the size of the economy.

Their population is 6.6 crore while ours is 136.9 crore that is ours is ~21 times theirs. Resources per capita of India is low. China though similarly populated to us, they had 3-times more land than us.




Mods: Merge with the above post please, posted back to back by mistake.

[AWD]

Originally Posted by Hayek

Sorry to be a wet blanket, but I think of this as an irrelevant milestone. Our population (1.33 bn) is 20x that of the UK (66mm). So it is a crying shame that it has taken us 70 years to overtake the UK in absolute GDP.

True its of no significance except academic reasons. Poverty is ever increasing, rich poor gap widening & wealth is accumulating among the handful rich only, there's hardly any percolation.

Originally Posted by AMG Power

We've also ahead of UK in the lack of infrastructure, lack of physical quality of life, lack of government welfare schemes, number of people below the poverty line, number of corrupt politicians, number of high value scams, etc.
As mentioned earlier, the size of the economy in financial terms is of no relevance when viewed alone and has to be taken in the context of the 20X higher population, per capita income / standard of living etc.

Living standards are miles apart when we compare both the nations. Most people who see the GDP size & go gaga have little or no experience of the poor, their living conditions & the ordeals they face. When we live in Cities, in posh colonies, in air conditioned cars & offices, the world appears nice & good. With little contact with the poor, how & where they live, how they make the ends meet, we live in our own cocoon, a bubble outside of which we tend to believe whatever the media tells us or what little we see from the windows of our cars. We are happy as our comfortable, pockets getting deeper but sadly the side is going deeper in the hole.

Originally Posted by blorebuddy

These kind of news does not mean anything
1) When we do not have clean drinking water and sanitation is not provided to all citizens
2) When we do not have quality free & quality basic education and health care to all citizens
3) When we do not have proper waste management system in place and continue to dump garbage in landfills, burn the plastic waste without worrying about the side effects and cry about pollution
4) When we pollute all water bodies without care about the nature and future
and the list goes on...we have miles to go by improving the standard of living before boasting about these

True we lack the basics, we forget we are among the most polluting nations, we score almost the lowest in happiness & satisfaction indexes across the world. To know the real India one must visit the slums, villages, low income group areas, Govt. hospitals, Govt. offices where citizens are still made to run from pillar to post for every small chore. One can't just cover all that up with a GDP figure that almost means nothing on the ground.

Moreover one can never be sure of the facts & figures provided by the Govts, recent trends are ample proof of it. Feel the true pulse of the nation, everything is nice & good for a handful of people, for the most living is pretty tough.

[kiku007]

Originally Posted by wheelguy

Given the current scenario, can we trump U.K. by the end of 2019 to enter top 5 economies of the world again?

First of all, it doesn't mean anything and secondly, it'll be an achievement if India doesn't lose its current position.

Like many have posted already, in our quest to satisfy our ego we are misled into looking at the wrong metrics.

[GrammarNazi]

If govt spends too much to encourage growth, fiscal deficit would rise to rather high levels. Once that happens, Govt. Bonds would probably go down and so would the value of the Rupee, then is it worth it to make inflation come back this way?

Also, with such inflation/currency devaluation, what happens in cases (like say solar projects, or tolls etc) where companies can only recover investment at the rates capped by the state Govt?