[rovingeye]

Originally Posted by shipnil

Looks like we are meeting England for semis.

Is it going to be at the same venue as last time? It is increasingly starting to look like a game of luck rather than skill - whoever wins the toss chooses to bat and wins as the pitch becomes slower and slower during the match.

[msdivy]

As we enter the semis, here is a rundown on Indian batsmen.

1) Rahul - Sulking child (unhappy with his slow scoring), had resigned for No 4 when Dhawan was around and now is adamant on No 1. He is carrying an injury but doesn't want to admit it.

2) Rohit - Highway or Pavilion depending on the pitch.

3) Kohli - Being No 1 ODI batsman, the most disappointing of the lot. Loses focus-concentration-interest in batting after crossing his batting average. Of late has taken to rage on the cricket field and if he cannot restrain himself, might miss out on semi-final or final match.

4) Pant - New kid on the stage, still basking on his luck and just happy to be there.

5) Dhoni - Doesn't take singles, doesn't try the big shots. Possibly prefers Chennai weather than the English climate.

6) Jadhav - 1 on 1, indistinguishable skill-match with Rayudu. Is it the pitch, opposition bowling or dressing room instructions, in any case, he is playing ODI like a test match.

7) Pandya - Proper slog over batsman, living up to his skills.

8) Karthik - Wicket-keeper, and then the batsman but is in the team for his batting skills.

9) Shankar - Is he a bowler or batsman? How was he in the playing XI? Why is he out now?

On India's No 4: Everybody was sure that Somebody would do it. Anybody could have done it, but Nobody did it. In the end, Everybody blamed Somebody when Nobody did what Anybody could have.

[deehunk]

Originally Posted by rovingeye

It is increasingly starting to look like a game of luck rather than skill - whoever wins the toss chooses to bat and wins as the pitch becomes slower and slower during the match.

The pitch gets slower and slower during second innings and boundary becomes shorter and shorter during first innings, MSK Prasad should have included more 3D players in the World Cup squad.

[NPV]

England pretty much have just one game plan that works for them - bat first, get 300+, bowl out or contain the opposition. This game plan also works against them when roles are reversed and the opposition team gets 300+ and England are chasing
Toss is key, may the better team win the toss

[deehunk]

Originally Posted by NPV

Toss is key, may the better team win the toss

India and Australia have 2 strike bowlers, England has only one, Jofra Archer. The bowlers have not been effective for NZ. Rohit and Bairstow are riding on luck. NZ is going to be an easy prey for Aussies. This World Cup has been very boring from viewer's perspective, is this the decline of 50 overs format?

[mazda4life]

Originally Posted by NPV

England pretty much have just one game plan that works for them - bat first, get 300+, bowl out or contain the opposition. This game plan also works against them when roles are reversed and the opposition team gets 300+ and England are chasing
Toss is key, may the better team win the toss

Whilst I agree with your analysis, I think some of the bowlers like Wood and Woakes bowl with an unerring accuracy and this coupled with familiarity of the conditions makes them equally effective. Dropping Moen was a bold move indeed.

[Garth]

Originally Posted by msdivy

As we enter the semis, here is a rundown on Indian batsmen.

Looks like you just dont like anyone in the team apart from the bowlers.
Dont feel I am calling you out, but just seems too much negativity.

Mod Note: Please avoid quoting the entire post when responding

[vibbs]

Guys all said and done, I think we have a good chance to win the word cup.

Australia are ramping up, but are not near invincible. They can be defeated and more than half the battle will be won if we bat against them first.

England- well. They have not lost after batting first. But kn the game against India, despite a slow start, kohli and rohit controlled the game well. Dhoni of old would defenitely have won the game for us.
Even with this team had we really gone for it, rather than protecting the run rate, I think we would have got to the target.

With one less spin bowler at the same ground, England will be hard pressed to repeat the same batting performance even if they bat first.

I think we are in a good position to win the semis. Just hope india play 3 seamers though, if the pitch is going to be the same.

[Eddy]

The 2011 world cup which we won, all our knockout opponents were strong teams - Australia, Pakistan & Sri Lanka.

The world cups which we lost in the knockouts, we had relatively weaker opponents:
2003 - Beat Kenya in the semis and lost the finals
2015 - Beat Bangladesh in the quarters and lost the semis

Unless SA can pull off a near miracle against Australia, we will face England in the semis and Australia in the finals. Go blue !!

[hemanth.anand]

I'm not able to understand why everybody (in Starsports and every other media) is telling that Pakistan should win by a margin of 316 to win. Let me take the case that they actually manage to win by a miraculous margin of 316, their NRR will be 0.00 from the current -0.792. With their points tied with NZ, NZ will still have a better NRR of +0.175. So NZ will still go through. as per my calculation, Pak has to win with a margin of 396 runs to better the NRR of NZ.

I'm not sure of the rules/agreements for this Worldcup, But if the fact that Pak beat NZ in their previous meeting takes precedence over NRR (with same points), Just a win must be actually enough for Pak

Am I missing something?

[feluda86]

Originally Posted by Eddy

The 2011 world cup which we won, all our knockout opponents were strong teams - Australia, Pakistan & Sri Lanka.

The world cups which we lost in the knockouts, we had relatively weaker opponents:

You missed 1: 1996 - Won against a very strong Pakistan in QF lost to Sri Lanka in Semis

1987 was the last time we faced England in a knockout (with no QF) and we were swept out of the world cup!

Last time played England in a knockout in England was 1983 and we went on to beat them and the (then) defending champions to win the WC.

[kavensri]

Originally Posted by hemanth.anand

I'm not able to understand why everybody (in Starsports and every other media) is telling that Pakistan should win by a margin of 316 to win. Let me take the case that they actually manage to win by a miraculous margin of 316, their NRR will be 0.00 from the current -0.792. With their points tied with NZ, NZ will still have a better NRR of +0.175. So NZ will still go through. as per my calculation, Pak has to win with a margin of 396 runs to better the NRR of NZ.

I'm not sure of the rules/agreements for this Worldcup, But if the fact that Pak beat NZ in their previous meeting takes precedence over NRR (with same points), Just a win must be actually enough for Pak

Am I missing something?

I don't know how you calculated, but these are the numbers that I am getting when i do the calculations. So the margin of victory varies slightly, but it is around 315.

PAK BAN
350 38
375 61
400 84
425 107
450 129

Ofcourse, if BAN bowl first, then PAK is out even if they bowl out BAN for ZERO.

And yes, as per the rules, NRR takes precedence over H2H result.

[bvasista]

Originally Posted by rovingeye

It is increasingly starting to look like a game of luck rather than skill - whoever wins the toss chooses to bat and wins as the pitch becomes slower and slower during the match.

Rightly said rovingeye ! We were discussing the same in office about the toss.

Ind - Aus match - India won the toss, elected to bat and Aus lost by 30 odd runs.
Ind - Eng match - Eng won the toss, elected to bat and Ind lost by 30 odd runs.

The only exception I saw was that Bangladesh was able to score 320 odd runs against West Indies that too quite comfortably in 42 odd overs.

My opinion is that if India has to win the world cup, 50 % is toss winning thing and the rest of it is the team's contribution. Otherwise India has to play like Aus did in 2003 world cup. Aus won every game and that too in Semi finals against Sri Lanka despite scoring 220 runs when they had a superb pace bowling unit.

[feluda86]

Originally Posted by kavensri

I don't know how you calculated, but these are the numbers that I am getting when i do the calculations. So the margin of victory varies slightly, but it is around 315.



And yes, as per the rules, NRR takes precedence over H2H result.

This is how the NRR is calculated:

Pakistan's current NRR: -0.792 in 8 matches
Pakistan's total RR: -0.792x8 = -6.336

NZ's current NRR: 0.175 in 9 matches
NZ's total RR: 0.175x9=1.575

Hence in 1 match pakistan will have to cover 6.336+1.575+0.001 RR to over take NZ, which is 7.912.

Now this will have to be done in 50 overs or less. Hence by runs, the winning margin should be 50x7.912 = 395.6 ~ 396 runs
In terms of overs (if BAN bat first), Pakistan will have to score BAN's runs in less than 50/7.912 = 6 overs and 2 balls. That is they have to score 7.912 times faster than Bangladesh.

There are different representations of this calculation based on the convenience of the statistician performing the calculation. All roads lead to the same Rome here. I have tried to keep it simple and more relatable.

NRR represents by how many runs on a average your victories have come over the several number of matches you have played (A NRR of +0.86 means you have won your average match by 0.86x50 = 42 runs. A -ve RR translates to the interpretation that you have lost your matches by a bigger margin than you have won them by). For a T20 you simply change 50 to 20 (A NRR of +0.86 in a T20 means you have won your average match by 0.86x20 = 17.2 runs).

Note: If you get all out your innings is treated as 50 overs regardless of how many overs you actually faced.

Hope this helps!

[PPS]

Originally Posted by Eddy

What he is saying is true (about Manjrekar's verbal diarrohea) but still it is in bad taste:

Manjrekar makes a fair point i believe. Jadeja is a match-winner in Test Match Cricket, not so in ODI Cricket. Infact that is the reason he was dropped after the 2017 Champions Trophy debacle, for failing to pick up wickets in the middle stages! In this current squad though, he offers more utility instead of Karthik/Kedar. Hope he takes out his vengeance on the field during the semi-final.

Originally Posted by vibbs

Guys all said and done, I think we have a good chance to win the word cup.

Agreed. But we need some luck as well, especially with the toss which is proving decisive.