[headbanger]

Originally Posted by bluevolt

43 cases in India now. Slowly the numbers are picking up. Is this a sign of worry?

My organization still hasn't declared WFH, I am using my own car to commute for last few days ever since the Noida case was communicated.

Is it safe to travel in Metro or we should continue to use our own cars till the time the news about the virus subsides?

1. At this stage, almost every reported case in India is linked to overseas travel. Hence the number of cases 43 is probably not causing panic. As per WHO, this stage is called containment. This stage is the first stage of fighting an epidemic.
2. The next stage is called delaying, which is the current stage of UK. Community transmission starts happening at this stage which means that people with no visit to already effected areas start getting impacted.
3. If above stage is not controlled, the next stage is what is currently hitting Italy and Iran. This is called outbreak.
4. If you happen to study previous pandemics, in particular, "Spanish flu" or "Bombay flu", there are two common patterns. One is that the virus needs colonies of hosts (humans) to propagate. This means that a large number of
people in a small area with a reasonable environment support for virus to survive and multiply. The second pattern is that there was some sort of transportation mechanism which meant the local epidemic started to spread across multiple places with the help of the transportation medium.
5. All of the above means that in the absence of medical treatment, the best chance for any country is to be successful at the containment stage. Epidemics work exponentially and not linearly, hence the speed of scale increases dramatically.

In my opinion, unless there are no other options, you should avoid Metro or suburban railways as the number of external factors outside your control increase manifold. The other thing we can do is to do our bit (wash hands, sanitize hands etc.) to save ourselves and hence our country from this virus.

[volkman10]

Karnataka reports first positive case; Total number of India cases rises to 45.

Karnataka confirms first case of COVID-19 in Bengaluru's Whitefield area

Link

[SmartCat]

Nursery and Primary schools in Karnataka closed indefinitely, until further orders. However, my kids' school sent a message saying the school will be closed for 2 days, and further updates will be given later.

Coronavirus: Indefinite holiday declared for Bengaluru schools from classes I to V
https://www.thenewsminute.com/articl...ses-i-v-119852

[Thad E Ginathom]

Originally Posted by Lambydude

Just to understand the point, why do you think 43 in India is not a worry but 6 in Kerala is? In fact with much superior health care facilities in Kerala, shouldn't it be the other way around?

Originally Posted by Latheesh

What he meant is 1 case in the entire state is less concerning than the 5-6 cases in a small town.

Yes. I mean 43 in India need not worry a guy in Chennai, where, so far, only one case in the state is knowm.

Originally Posted by adrian

That is where the problem lies. Just take the case of the residents of Pathanamthitta District. For them Corona Virus was far away from them, in China, in Italy etc. and may be the first cases in Thrissur.. until the morons came in stealth mode, visited banks, bars,visited cinemas, traveled in public transports, attended marriages and visited relatives in near by district.

So God forbid, what assurance has anyone got that someone with corona virus is not lurking in his vicinity. So it is always good to be concerned without going overboard.

Yes, I agree. It is not a problem if it is not happening anywhere nearby... until it does. That can happen any day.

By the way, I am wary of the home-made sanitizer recipes if they contain potentially harmful substances like Hydrogen peroxide. To be honest, I don't remember if 3% is dangerous or not --- which is a good reason not to use it! But do remember: soap is good.

I do use IPA. I have a small spray bottle. Originally, it was used for cleaning vinyl records, then as a general degreaser/cleaner, eg for spectacles, and I use it on my skin to wash away things like squashed mosquitoes. It contains IPA, water, and a drop or two of washing-up liquid. The proportions? I make it up as I go along. Used gallons of the stuff when we were living in sewage post Chennai flood.

[SilentEngine]

Originally Posted by SmartCat

Nursery and Primary schools in Karnataka closed indefinitely, until further orders. However, my kids' school sent a message saying the school will be closed for 2 days, and further updates will be given later.

Coronavirus: Indefinite holiday declared for Bengaluru schools from classes I to V
https://www.thenewsminute.com/articl...ses-i-v-119852

Interestingly my kid's pre-school also informed about closure for next two days only (Monday was already a holi-day). Wonder what's with this two day closure.

Total cases in India 47 now with +2 in Pune. Total is slowly increasing, but it's really minuscule compared to rest of the world. What is it that we are doing that's different? In spite of some news of people dodging screening and escaping from hospitals.

[Sawyer]

The only answer to this is a vaccine; closing down things is easy, but how and when will you open them? Even working from home isn't good - just because it is doable? Why should your service providers work to deliver things for you at home then? Are they not human too? What happens if they stop going to power stations or water supply works? Or manning the supply chains of all that is consumed at home?

The logical end to all this behaviour of looking after just oneself is a complete breakdown of society and the rule of might is right.

What we need is sensible leadership on a global basis, treating the world as one nation with a common problem, not this closing of borders nonsense.

Either that, or a quick vaccine, if things are not to rapidly unravel.

[vibbs]

Originally Posted by SilentEngine

Total cases in India 47 now with +2 in Pune. Total is slowly increasing, but it's really minuscule compared to rest of the world. What is it that we are doing that's different? In spite of some news of people dodging screening and escaping from hospitals.

Well not much different and I won't read too much into the numbers and comfort myself.

The reason being, really what percentage of Indians readily go to the doctors for a case of cold. Symptoms are same.

People generally do self medication. Remember 80% of people recover without any serious implications.

So it is quite possible that the number of infected is higher than what is reported, they just have not been identified.

Also what percentage of deaths in our country are recorded and reported correctly?

Intention is not to raise panic. But simply caution against possibility of a false sense of comfort leading to complacency.

[mvadg]

Hand sanitizer is unavailable to those without "connections".
The government has not made available disinfectants free of cost at public places - I guess this must be their way of getting rid of the poverty stricken.
Knowing how we behave on roads - I am not very confident the general public will band together to defeat the spread of COVID19 - Its coming soon to your doorstep!

[Sawyer]

And of course the other equally important thing is to prioritise care for those with serious symptoms, and not treat them as pariahs. In India, we seem to be hunting them down like criminals; at times like this the worst of human nature seems to come forth first.

Perhaps this is a test to see if all of humanity can see itself as one, and unite around a common cause.

Time will tell.

[JithinR]

Originally Posted by Sawyer

What we need is sensible leadership on a global basis, treating the world as one nation with a common problem, not this closing of borders nonsense.

Originally Posted by Sawyer

And of course the other equally important thing is to prioritise care for those with serious symptoms, and not treat them as pariahs. In India, we seem to be hunting them down like criminals; at times like this the worst of human nature seems to come forth first.

Till a vaccine is made containment with proper treatment protocols to treat symptoms is the way forward.

No one is hunting down those suspected of coronavirus, they are just trying to contain it's spread.

Oh and that global leader (at least in healthcare) is the WHO.

[Hatari]

The Covid 19 mortality rate is 3.4%, the remaining have all recovered and survived! Further, deaths of people aged 60 and below is 1% of the above number.

This is primarily social media and whatsapp driven panic.

To put things in perspective :

In India, 14,000 people died of flu this past year.
Road accidents resulted in 150,000 fatalities in 2018.
Smoking causes over 6 million deaths globally every year.

I dont see any whatsapp forwards to Stop smoking!

Keep calm guys.

[drive_angry]

Pardon me for my ignorance but is the vaccine is place for Coronavirus? I heard Kerala CM saying that the state had treated some 3 patients having coronavirus a while back means there should be an antidote, right?

[JithinR]

Originally Posted by drive_angry

Pardon me for my ignorance but is the vaccine is place for Coronavirus? I heard Kerala CM saying that the state had treated some 3 patients having coronavirus a while back means there should be an antidote, right?

No sir. Unfortunately, as of this time we can only manage the symptoms and help a patient get better and contains it's spread through quarantine measures. That, I believe is what was done in this case.

[am1m]

Originally Posted by drive_angry

Pardon me for my ignorance but is the vaccine is place for Coronavirus? I heard Kerala CM saying that the state had treated some 3 patients having coronavirus a while back means there should be an antidote, right?

I think the symptoms were treated/managed and they recovered. I don't think there is a vaccine developed yet and remember reading that will naturally take time as trials need to be conducted first.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51665497

Another good article:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-facts-checked

[coolvenk]

Originally Posted by mvadg

Hand sanitizer is unavailable to those without "connections".
The government has not made available disinfectants free of cost at public places - I guess this must be their way of getting rid of the poverty stricken.
Knowing how we behave on roads - I am not very confident the general public will band together to defeat the spread of COVID19 - Its coming soon to your doorstep!

Washing your hands with soap for 20 seconds while scrubbing properly is said to be more effective than hand sanitizers. Aim to do this every hour and a half or so and especially when you come back home and before you eat. The virus is said to be able to survive on surfaces for up to a few days. Also, don't touch your face, i.e. eyes, nose or mouth. The main way the virus is communicated is if the mucus there comes into contact with the virus via your hand. For this reasons, masks don't help all that much, unless you are already infected, in which case the mask helps slow the spread of the virus when you cough.

Last I checked, there has been no fatality under the age of 9, all through the world (for reasons that aren't completely clear), which has brought down anxiety in some of us a great deal. Conversely, until the age of 40 or so, the fatality rate was about 0.2% if I remember right. It goes up drastically, for people older than that with the rate being about 14% by some estimates, for those above 80.

In short, it is important to be well-informed on the details and act accordingly without unduly panicking.

Also, the low number of reported cases, is likely because we are not testing as many people; South Korea on the other hand, was, at some point, testing 10,000 people a day, at random. So, the actual number of cases are likely to be much more. Also, there is an incubation period for the virus wherein an infected person may not show symptoms for a couple of weeks. In short, the time to take precautions is now.