[vivek95]

Originally Posted by nagr22

https://www.firstpost.com/health/man...84521.html/amp



Whats happening guys?? I feel like I am in a movie!

Hello. Don't worry, other kind BHPians have already directed you to my previous post, thanks to them.

I will tell you where the problem lies - The misleading headlines in the news reports ! I am not saying that media is entirely irresponsible but at times, the headlines or the highlighted part is misleading or panic inducing. This is how they tend to put it across -

1. "Man dies from Hantavirus and in another shocking update, 32 others who travelled in the same bus also are tested" --- Now, what's "shocking" in that ?? Do we have full details whether all of them were rodent handlers ?? And that's why they are being tested ?? The disease does not spread from human to human as per our medical literature, but its unknown why these other 32 were tested. As I said earlier, may be all of them are rodent handlers or live in an area that is infested with rodents.

2. " While the world is still reeling under Coronavirus, China has found another deadly virus called Hantavirus " -- Wait, China is not a production factory of all viruses, Hantavirus is well known since long.

The media can simply keep it as - " Man dies from Hantavirus" and provide relevant details. But no, they want the anxiety to kick in !



Off topic --

Infact, during MBBS, in 2nd year while studying Microbiology, we read about an array of viruses and bacteria and parasites. Being naive that time, we even dismissed some of them as "okay, fine, who cares " I am sure, most of my Doctor friends will relate to this. We understood the importance post MBBS and MD once we were into practice and as we matured over the period of time.

-Dr. Vivek

[greenoval]

According to a news update in India Today, ICMR has applied mathematical modeling to estimate that India may be able to reduce its Covid-19 cases by up to 62 per cent if social distancing and quarantines are strictly observed.

Here's the gist -
- Research on covid 19 has revealed that the reproducing number (Ro) or the average number of people who are likely to be infected by an infected person, for Covid-19 ranges between 1.5 and 4.9.
- ICMR's study created two scenarios: optimistic scenario (when Ro is 1.5, least risky) and pessimistic scenario (when Ro is 4.9, most risky).
- In the optimistic scenario (i.e. when Ro is 1.5) if an intervention is made, say if 50 per cent of those who are showing symptoms are put in quarantine (voluntarily or through screening and testing), within an average of three days of developing symptoms, the number of cases can reduce by 62 per cent. The intervention in this scenario has the effect of 'flattening' the epidemic curve, distributing cases over a longer duration. A city like Delhi could get between 400-600 days to prepare before the number of cases hit its peak.
- Under the pessimistic scenario, the projected impact in terms of reducing cases would be just 2 per cent.

It's interesting to note that ICMR devised the model before Covid-19 turned into a global pandemic and gathered an estimate of the difference early intervention can make in preventing the disease from spreading in India.
If this is true, then there is a method to India's approach. The implementation success though is a big unknown

Link:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ind...140-2020-03-24

[alpha1]

Originally Posted by greenoval

According to a news update in India Today, ICMR has applied mathematical modeling to estimate that India may be able to reduce its Covid-19 cases by up to 62 per cent if social distancing and quarantines are strictly observed.

Here's the gist -
- Research on covid 19 has revealed that the reproducing number (Ro) or the average number of people who are likely to be infected by an infected person, for Covid-19 ranges between 1.5 and 4.9.
- ICMR's study created two scenarios: optimistic scenario (when Ro is 1.5, least risky) and pessimistic scenario (when Ro is 4.9, most risky).
- In the optimistic scenario (i.e. when Ro is 1.5) if an intervention is made, say if 50 per cent of those who are showing symptoms are put in quarantine (voluntarily or through screening and testing), within an average of three days of developing symptoms, the number of cases can reduce by 62 per cent. The intervention in this scenario has the effect of 'flattening' the epidemic curve, distributing cases over a longer duration. A city like Delhi could get between 400-600 days to prepare before the number of cases hit its peak.
- Under the pessimistic scenario, the projected impact in terms of reducing cases would be just 2 per cent.

It's interesting to note that ICMR devised the model before Covid-19 turned into a global pandemic and gathered an estimate of the difference early intervention can make in preventing the disease from spreading in India.
If this is true, then there is a method to India's approach. The implementation success though is a big unknown

Link:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ind...140-2020-03-24

Q: What is the duration of this quarantine in the model?

Q: Why will the model not "regress" to spreading exponentially once the lockdown is removed?

[ValarMorghulis]

Originally Posted by volkman10

Japanese PM and IOC chief agree to postpone 2020 Olympics.

My heart goes out to Japan. Hosting an Olympic is an expensive affair with almost always more money spent on hosting than earned through tourism or other avenues. This will affect their economy big time.

I hope India doesn't host one, at least for the foreseeable future.

[BoneCollector]

Lockdown for 3 weeks in entire country starting tonight at 12am!

[vibbs]

Complete lockdown for 21 days!!

Wonder what it entails? Hope essential services will keep running. The PM said consider this as a curfew.

[volkman10]

Full lockdown for 21 days:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_c...ature=emb_logo

[Nissan1180]

The lockdown may be a valid step, but how are people going to get the essentials? Also, how will the supply chain of things like Atta and soap be maintained if factories are closed?

I saw a video of a police constable beating people brutally for going out during the lockdown. They are treating citizens who pay taxes to fund their salaries as criminals. Fines and penalties are fine but not violence. I hope the government, especially in states with a history of police violence (like UP), restrains trigger happy cops from harassing innocent people who go out to get their groceries and medicines.

I cannot understand why something as severe as this was announced so suddenly. People did not prepare for this. I know most folks will support this decision in blind faith just like they supported demonetization which killed the growing economy, but it is just inhumane on so many fronts. What about the elderly staying alone, people in PGs who can't cook and people without jobs who did not stockpile items to survive?

Stay safe everyone, and hopefully you will not be tortured by the police while out to shop for milk and bread.

[AnandB]

Good decision. If it is followed rigorously by everyone those who will be/are symptomatic can be quarantined and spread can be controlled. Still think should have done from Sunday itself as Janta Curfew has bound to make things worse.

[AnandB]

Originally Posted by Nissan1180

The lockdown may be a valid step, but how are people going to get the essentials? Also, how will the supply chain of things like Atta and soap be maintained if factories are closed?

I saw a video of a police constable beating people brutally for going out during the lockdown. They are treating citizens who pay taxes to fund their salaries as criminals. Fines and penalties are fine but not violence. I hope the government, especially in states with a history of police violence (like UP), restrains trigger happy cops from harassing innocent people who go out to get their groceries and medicines.

I cannot understand why something as severe as this was announced so suddenly. People did not prepare for this. I know most folks will support this decision in blind faith just like they supported demonetization which killed the growing economy, but it is just inhumane on so many fronts. What about the elderly staying alone, people in PGs who can't cook and people without jobs who did not stockpile items to survive?

Stay safe everyone, and hopefully you will not be tortured by the police while out to shop for milk and bread.

Notebandi was self-enforced, this is not. Covid-19 doesn't care to spread if someone is out for essential stuff or casually. Guidelines will be given soon how people can go out for essential stuff. It is not a curfew.

[Nissan1180]

Originally Posted by AnandB

Notebandi was self-enforced, this is not. Covid-19 doesn't care to spread if someone is out for essential stuff or casually. Guidelines will be given soon how people can go out for essential stuff. It is not a curfew.

It is a curfew more stringent than the Janta curfew.

Quoting from the article : “Every state, every union territory, every district, every village and every locality is being put under a lockdown. This is in effect a curfew, more stringent than the Janta Curfew,” PM Modi said explaining the new measure which comes into force from midnight tonight."

As for guidelines, wonder why nothing was shared so far. Shops are not open in many places.

[AnandB]

I did listen to the whole speech and i understand the issues and it definitely could have been handled better as i have said before myself. But there is no other way to handle this. Immediate lockdown is the only way and should have been done last week systematically.

[srishiva]

Originally Posted by Nissan1180

Did you read or go through the full speech before commenting?
If not, it would be nice if you actually read what was said. It is a curfew more stringent than the Janta curfew.

As for guidelines, wonder why nothing was shared so far. Shops are not open in many places.

Its not curfew. Else, the word have been used. All essential services will be open. Might take couple of days for them to make them run smoothly. End to end supply chain needs to be maintained. But since its not forever, it should be managed.

I just hope our testing efforts should increase many folds. Else, at the end of 21 days, it will be out in the open and cannot be managed.

[DarthVeda]

the shop keepers need to consider their health and tell customers to maintain distance and payment accepted only through digital media. I haven't used cash in over month and half. everything is through UPI transactions only.

[AnandB]

Originally Posted by Sheel

The good part was the grocery store took down my list, wrote my phone number and said, he would call when my ordered items would be ready, but expect a call by ~21:00 hrs. That is why I couldn't spot a crowd / queue. Some sense has prevailed.

If you read this post member shared today, how situation like grocery store was handled perfectly. Panic buying and rushing to store in droves is defeating the purpose. They will remain open and can be bought anytime during these 21 days. Public has to use their brains and not expect every little thing to be spoon-fed.