[bj96]

Originally Posted by vibbs

I hope we dont get a rude surprise when we up our testing rates.

Kindly help me understand.

What is the issue if the person is tested covid +ve and home quarantined? He is otherwise doing fine and not draining the health-care resources. As per reports, only about 20% of covid +ve will show symptoms and might need hospitalisation. I think just being +ve (but adequately quarantined) should not be a bother.

Am I missing something?

tia,
-BJ

[motorworks]

The situation in Italy, Spain is nothing short of tragic! I mean, how can 12000 people die in Italy and Spain? People attribute it to higher concentration of older people, but for sure that cannot be the only reason! And the measures taken by these countries and the general discipline that people exhibit there followed by their quality of life has not been good enough! Makes me wonder how India is going to survive this if Italy and Spain where population density is far lower have not been able to.

Another point to note is that the spread of this deadly virus has not been so high in other third world Asian countries like Vietnam, Cambodia etc. Are they all under testing and under reporting?

I really hope Indian government is not taking a deliberate tactic of under testing to quell panic in the short term.

[G-BoleroBoy]

How to stop senior citizens from getting out for their daily walk? this has become a nuisance for me at home trying to stop my dad from getting out

[doxinboy]

Originally Posted by bj96

What is the issue if the person is tested covid +ve and home quarantined?

Well my friend, we have already seen that Indians dont believe in self discipline and we have various instances where people have breached self quarantine and compromised others. It's very simple. We cant sit at one place if there is no noose hanging above us.

What worries me is the people, who are safer asymptomatic positive cases, might infect older vulnerable family members who, under present circumstances, are critically vulnerable.

But even more worrisome is what if this process is happening right now under our nose and we don't even know it. That's why US is stepping up the testing drastically. Who cares if the data shows it is the most infected nation in the world, what they are doing is saving the generation from death.

India, sooner or later need to step up the testing to arrest community spread. Just like Ireland, we should involve private health infrastructure and bring it within the government ambit until the crisis is over.

[vibbs]

Originally Posted by bj96

Kindly help me understand.

What is the issue if the person is tested covid +ve and home quarantined? He is otherwise doing fine and not draining the health-care resources. As per reports, only about 20% of covid +ve will show symptoms and might need hospitalisation. I think just being +ve (but adequately quarantined) should not be a bother.

Am I missing something?

tia,
-BJ

My comment was with respect to the number of positive cases in US. Number of positive cases is a function of number of people tested.

And well yes, I feel technically what you say is correct. Positive cases stay quarantined, they dont spread further. Quarantine is different from lockdown or social distancing BTW.

However unless you test, you will never know whether you are positive or not.

This means in the absence of sufficient testing you will have probably lot of silent transmitters who never developed any serious symptoms but were passing on the virus to others.

To give an example, here in Singapore extensive contact tracing goes on to ensure all people who have come in contact to a positive patient are accounted for in order to establish the Index case.

Off late, there have been a few unlinked people testing positive. Which means the person who infected a particular guy (unlinked to any previous case or without foreign travel history) is still out there (unaware that he is infected) but passing the virus on to others. How do you reduce such cases? Only by widespread testing.

I feel testing rate in India needs to go up once we enter community spread phase. Then (if and when we enter community spread phase) there would only be an option of self quarantine for the positive but non critical cases (due to lack of resources) however difficult that sounds.

Incidentally, in order to ascertain if we have entered community spread phase also, number of tests need to go up.

[Turbanator]

A quick question- what will happen after these 21 days or hypothetically after 90days of this lockdown.

Can the professionals (Doctors) confirm that by staying in isolation this will go?

When will the Authorities realize that the testing & taking out the infectious people is the only way. Else this is never going to get over unless we get help from some mythological gods and goddesses.

[ninjatalli]

Originally Posted by G-BoleroBoy

How to stop senior citizens from getting out for their daily walk? this has become a nuisance for me at home trying to stop my dad from getting out

Instill a process of social distancing (3-6 feet atleast) on the roads with others on the roads; no talking or stopping at any of the usual joints (where he would be meeting/knowing folks) and it should be fine. You could join him on the first few days to ensure the above is maintained diligently.

Works much better wrt their health too; a bit of daily walk/exercise would go a decent way.

[laluks]

Originally Posted by Turbanator

A quick question- what will happen after these 21 days or hypothetically after 90days of this lockdown.
....
When will the Authorities realize that the testing & taking out the infectious people is the only way. Else this is never going to get over unless we get help from some mythological gods and goddesses.

Kerala Government is doing exactly what you have said. Testing in large numbers. Hopefully other states follow this, and centre takes a look at getting more of these kits to all states

Originally Posted by G-BoleroBoy

How to stop senior citizens from getting out for their daily walk? this has become a nuisance for me at home trying to stop my dad from getting out

Today morning I saw in our layout the oldie friends went for a walk, they were 6 and they were almost rubbing shoulders while walking! Don't know how to stop that, all of them are from greatly educated backgrounds, some CEOs, some Directors before retirement. SO I guess they are all very well read and informed

[agambhandari]

Originally Posted by Turbanator

A quick question- what will happen after these 21 days or hypothetically after 90days of this lockdown.

Can the professionals (Doctors) confirm that by staying in isolation this will go?

When will the Authorities realize that the testing & taking out the infectious people is the only way. Else this is never going to get over unless we get help from some mythological gods and goddesses.

The lockdown is merely to restrict the spread and decrease the load on the healthcare system. Else the load will be so high that required care could not be given.
Restrictions will be lifted slowly, but total safety can only be achieved if we get herd immunity or build a vaccine

[frewper]

Two people from Tesla Fremont factory were tested positive yesterday. The factory production was slowed down but engineering teams were still coming to work. No office word for a lockdown yet.

[Turbanator]

Originally Posted by agambhandari

The lockdown is merely to restrict the spread and decrease the load on the healthcare system. Else the load will be so high that required care could not be given.
Restrictions will be lifted slowly

So that’s precisely my question- whenever we reopen 21 days or 90 days, will we not put the load on healthcare at that time? and by then won’t everyone will be exhausted - physically and monetarily.

Originally Posted by laluks

Kerala Government is doing exactly what you have said. Testing in large numbers. Hopefully other states follow this, and centre takes a look at getting more of these kits to all states

Absolutely correct way - hope central authorities can take a cue and implement across India.

[msdivy]

Originally Posted by Turbanator

When will the Authorities realize that the testing & taking out the infectious people is the only way.

Testing requires reagents and the labs did not have sufficient to perform tests on a large scale. Nobody anticipated the demand for tests, and so the demand for reagents has shot up globally. WHO has provided the testing strategy, when the lab facility is not adequate (link). That could be the reason for rationing the tests.
This was yesterday - ICMR floats tender to buy 1 million test kits

The Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) late Wednesday invited quotations from manufacturers for supply of 1 million kits to test patients suspected of suffering from COVID-19.

Any manufacturer with an Indian-based supplier can bid in the tender that closes at 1230pm today, showing the urgency

[nandadevieast]

The Bhilwara, Rajasthan case is a prime example of why the Govt should test aggressively. The guy went undetected and infected many before dying.

So without testing, you are basically waiting for such surprises to happen instead of pro-actively testing and isolating probable candidates. Everyone with Flu symptoms should be tested.

[Fillmore]

A different perspective of viruses and the inception of COVID-19
Interesting analysis.

Dr Thomas Cowan

Not sure if this was posted earlier, could not find it on the thread.

[CarNerd]

I think the virus was present everywhere before it was first reported from China. Otherwise how come people from far away countries are affected more than China? I just don't understand. How can one know exactly how and where the virus originated? MERS which affected 21 countries was also caused by a Coronavirus first discovered in Saudi Arabia. But was it the place of origin? How do we know?