[Latheesh]

Originally Posted by Latheesh

Kerala controlled it well till now, but look at the number of flights going to come to the state in next few days under Vande Bharat. Hope they control it well otherwise it is going to be very difficult to manage.

Kerala active cases were down to 14 last week. Today it stands at 64 with new arrival of cases from Karnataka, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, and abroad.

[msdivy]

Originally Posted by Jeroen

I am watching Dr. Fauci giving evidence in the US senate. He says and I quote 'there is still much that is not known about the virus'

Dr Fauci is man of science. It's common for him to say, 'I don't know', 'we don't know'. But he knows quite a bit and it is his advice to main social distance without physical contact and not worry about other ways of the virus.

Originally Posted by Jeroen

If there is one thing they all agree to, is that they are still discovering and learning new aspects of this virus.

Yes, we can learn more. But we have to apply what we know till now and not to worry about imaginary possibilities.

Originally Posted by Jeroen

Please google “what we don’t know about corona” You will find references to dozens of articles, many from reputable sources highlighting endless stuff we still don’t know and or fully understand
Jeroen

Most of them are old and they try go deep on,
* How did coronavirus jump to humans?
* How is it perfectly adapted for stealth and mass transmission?
* Does it affect the pets?

These are good questions to find answers and answers are not relevant for handling current situation.
For example:
-> How did coronavirus jump to humans? The answer doesn't affect current prevention & treatment in any way.
-> How is it perfectly adapted for stealth and mass transmission? We know it is spreading and we common folks can take preventive action by social distancing, masks. Let scientist worry about its DNA, use an electron microscope to figure out how it attaches and then find vaccine.
-> Does it affect the pets?
If human-animal can get it, why not cat-animal? It is possible but chances are remote. As prevention when being covid-19 +ve, avoid close contact with pets (and other humans).

Originally Posted by mvadg

We know next to nothing about this virus and for that matter anything.

We know about the virus in general, we know many things about covid-19. 100 years back, Spanish flu resulted in the death of 10 crore people when the world population was 180 crores and it lasted for 12 months.
Even though the world population is 750 crores now, only tiny minuscule will be dead and severity will go away in 3/4 months.

The best we can do is make some observations and revise them as new information comes along. I remember one line from the interview with the South Korean researcher Professor Kim Woo-joo saying "We must be humble"

What as humility got to do with defending against the virus? It doesn't have a purpose and it doesn't change its tactics

Originally Posted by Thad E Ginathom

One vital thing we don't know about this virus is whether or not it leaves us immune to another attack.

Let say the chances are 50:50, which means we do not know. The recovered person, like others around them, must maintain social distancing, wear masks in public, avoid close proximity with other humans in public for long durations. Following these would prevent anybody from getting infected 1st or 2nd time.

Originally Posted by gururajrv

This video demonstration is very much clear as to how Virus spreads:

There is no comparison between a virus & paint. Virus dies on the surface (that is when there is no host). The paint stays on for days, months, years.

Originally Posted by locusjag

Yes! Plus, there is also the other risk of cancers developing in one's body after the virus has done its part.

That is taking a bit far and looks like a plot from the Final Destination movie. Let's not worry about what is not proven, like recovery of 2002's SARS & 2012's MERS leading to cancer.

Originally Posted by mvadg

One takeaway from the Professor Kim Joo Woo interview - the next big wave is expected to start in September, when temperatures start falling in the Northern Hemisphere.

The temperature has got little to do with the spread. The next big wave will happen when people gather around an infected person without mask & social distancing.

As the mercury hits 40 in India, tomorrow is the day when India crosses China in terms of official total cases reported, despite being under lockdown..

[locusjag]

Originally Posted by msdivy

That is taking a bit far and looks like a plot from the Final Destination movie. Let's not worry about what is not proven, like recovery of 2002's SARS & 2012's MERS leading to cancer.

If there's one sure thing about the biological world, it's full of surprises. They said kids were unaffected by it initially...and there are cases of Kawasaki syndrome in kids now, thanks to the virus.

Besides, to be cavalier about possibilities isn't who I am; and all I'm saying is to respect the unknown, which is rule #1 for how I drive, by the way. You're free to ignore my worrisome thoughts though.

[PaddleShifter]

Originally Posted by rohan_iitr

Does an average guy who is going to his office also need to follow such stringent guidelines ?

...

Is this modus operandi sufficient for an average joe, considering that these things will have to be followed for the next few months ?

Please add to this.

Dear Rohan, you are taking more than sufficient precautions. Increased outdoor temperature and humidity will reduce the survival of the virus on surfaces such as car door handles, steering wheel, gear knobs, bike handle etc. So don't worry. Try to touch fewer surfaces at the office and also open doors by touching odd areas rather than the door handle or nearby area around it.

Lastly, transmission is much more likely in indoor settings, elevators, crowded stairs as compared to outdoors. Restrict visits to supermarket like bigger shops for grocery shopping.

[Thermodynamics]

INTERPOL warns of cyber threats during Covid-19 pandemic. They make use of current anxiety levels.

https://youtu.be/40wL852K0VQ

[mvadg]

Originally Posted by msdivy

Dr Fauci is man of science. It's common for him to say, 'I don't know', 'we don't know'. But...

I agree with almost everything you have stated, but like Dr Fauci, I don't like to make assertions that sound like they are commandments that are universally true, especially when scientists and doctors themselves are being very guarded. It is one thing to take an observation and then act on it realizing that, it is what it is, but excluding every other possibility and believing that no other possibility exists is not a good idea. At least your post seemed to be filled statements that precluded any other line of thought. This is what I had a problem with - may be the wordings should have allowed room for doubt. Otherwise, what you've stated are currently what is generally believed to be true.

Actually very clunky, and may be even evidence of why the American auto industry produces ugly cars, but this is a very practical solution that can be refined - PAPR Powered Air Purifying Respirator. Hope we can all buy one soon. I am willing to buy from China because I am sure they'll come up with an affordable version before anyone else and if I avoid the el-cheapo local importers, I can even get a fairly decent one.

Video

[ninjatalli]

A silver lining in the increasing infection numbers is the low % of patients requiring critical care. As we head towards post-lockdown scenarios, the most important criteria are the availability of beds and critical equipment; as the infection numbers will definitely see a further increase.

These stats are very reassuring, to an extent.


Source: Indian Expess

[msdivy]

Originally Posted by Thermodynamics

INTERPOL warns of cyber threats during Covid-19 pandemic. They make use of current anxiety levels.

Not sure whether it was mentioned here. Thousands of domains with the word covid and corona in the domain names were registered in March and April. Though domain registrants are weeding out the fraudulent domains, crime is expected to increase.

Originally Posted by ninjatalli

A silver lining in the increasing infection numbers is the low % of patients requiring critical care.

That is what many here on T-BHP were telling all along.

Originally Posted by mvadg

At least your post seemed to be filled statements that precluded any other line of thought.

Please tell me which of my statements are untrue. I will correct it.

It is lack of information & paranoia which made Bangalore Commissioner of Police share this information:

[ninjatalli]

Originally Posted by msdivy

That is what many here on T-BHP were telling all along.

Lol!

With the huge variety of viewpoints and arguments being made on this and the lockdown thread, I'm sure every scenario (positive/negative) that arrives over the next 2 months (and longer) would have been discussed, dissected and argued by someone on this forum for sure

-------------------------------

Editing this post to continue on my previous post article; the below scenes is gut-wrenching when we think of easily we could (or can) have fallen into a similar situation.

Source article: In Brazil, a desperate search for an open bed

As the coronavirus has swept the world, wealthy countries have been able to expand their health systems to accommodate surging need. Spain hired 52,000 more health-care workers. Germany added 12,000 intensive care beds. The United States deployed the USS Comfort into waters off New York City. Just when the systems appeared to be on the precipice, more resources were found.

But as the pandemic moves into its next phase, pushing into the poorer nations of Africa and Latin America, the possibility of expansion has been far more limited. In Guayaquil, Ecuador, bodies have been left out in the streets. In Loreto, Peru, corpses have been stacked haphazardly in a small hospital room. And in Brazil, which has registered more than 196,000 coronavirus cases and more than 13,000 deaths — by far the most in the Southern Hemisphere — coronavirus patients are spending their final days waiting in chairs.

A stew of factors — limited resources, long-term neglect of the health system, a global competition for medical supplies — has made what has been achievable elsewhere all but impossible in much of the developing world. Hundreds are dying at home, either because they can’t get treatment at the hospitals or because they fear they won’t. Ambulances race down streets with no clear destination, waiting for someone to die and relinquish a hospital bed.

[Jeroen]

Originally Posted by msdivy

Yes, we can learn more.

Glad you agree there is still more to learn about this virus

Originally Posted by msdivy

But we have to apply what we know till now and not to worry about imaginary possibilities.

Well, what you and the scientist consider imaginary possibilities is very different I believe.

I do agree with having to move forward, but to date nobody can tell you what the optimum social distancing is. So different standards being used across different countries. Which apart from the potential medical considerations has a huge impact on how society goes back to normal. Whether you believe it should be 1.5 m (e.g. the Netherlands) or 2.0m (The UK) makes a massive difference.

E.g. how many people can fit into a bus, a cafe, a cinema, a train under normal circumstances, at 1.5m or at 2.0 m distances. The differences are huge. One thing is absolutely sure. No person in that bus, cafe, cinema, train means nobody gets infected in that bus, cafe, cinema or train.

So to say that social distancing works is simply incomplete. The concept works obviously. At infinite social distancing the virus will die out, but anything less starts introducing a risk.

That doesn’t mean we should stay lock up for ever. But people need to understand social distancing comes with its own set of uncertainties.

Originally Posted by msdivy

Most of them are old and they try go deep on,
* How did coronavirus jump to humans?
* How is it perfectly adapted for stealth and mass transmission?
* Does it affect the pets?

No they are not old, they just havent been understood still!

Could be extremely relevant! And scientists are desperately trying to figure it all out. Not because they are scientists and just want to understand. On this one all scientific effort is aimed at getting the virus under control and hopefully rid the world of it.

Just some of the topics we just don’t know, in random order

1) How many people have died due to the virus
We simply don’t understand how deadly the virus is. This is also partly due to the problem on how deaths get measured and reported across different countries. So comparisons between data is tricky at best.

2) Symptons
Doctors to date are still finding new symptoms.
Have a look here:
https://www.newyorker.com/science/me...about-covid-19

Most people have mild symptoms, or even none. As we know some people suffer very badly, but we don’t know why.
Another angle is to find better treatment. Whereas ultimately a vaccine is going to solve all of this, it would be extremely useful if we could treat the symptoms more effectively. If we could half the rate of people ending up on the IC because of better treatment, on top of all the other measures, that would be a huge gain. Unfortunately, to date as so little is understood what this virus does an effective treatment is not something that will materialise soon.

3) The role children play in spreading the virus
We know children can catch the virus. In most cases they have little of very marginal symptoms. But what is unclear to what extend children play a role in spreading the virus. That is why you see massive differences between countries in their approach to closing and re-opening schools.

The last couple of weeks it has become clear that a small percentage of children does get affected badly by the virus. Why is totally unknown.

4) Seasonal impact on the virus
It is unknown whether seasonality has any impact on the virus and it spreading

5) Immunity
In essence, there are no knowns at all when it comes to immunity yet. Nobody knows for sure whether a person that suffered from Corona builds up immunity, correlation between severity of the illness to immunity.

6) Where did the virus originate from?
Not known, but relevant. Without this piece of information the virus could pop up again and again. We are literally mopping up, without having found the leak.

So I think much of this virus is simply not understood. When you start thinking through what that means for moving forward, it must be clear that everything we do comes with a risk factor. A risk factor that is not very well understood or defined as well.

I would be the first to agree the world needs to move on, cautiously. But there seems to be two approaches on how to communicate about this:

There are those that downplay our understanding of the virus. (E.g. we know all we need to know, social distancing works, don’t worry about where the virus came from, wear a mask, don’t wear a mask etc)

And there are those that are being very transparant about what we do and do not know and show us how they factor that into their decision making.

I absolutely detest people that tell me not to worry about complicated stuff. I look up to people who can explain and are on top of all details and take me on a journey that clearly shows me all the risks and how we are going to deal with it.

Look at the difference between how Trump talks about all of this and some Western Leaders (Eg. Mrs Merkel, Mr. Rutte etc)

Jeroen

[Sahilrai166]

A shocking news for all the Manglorians as 15 passengers who came from Dubai has tested positive for the Corona virus which includes 12 men and 4 women. Now the total count of active cases in the district has suddenly gone up to 50 out of which 29 are active cases,16 recoveries and 5 deaths.

Source:Mangaloremerijaanofficial Instagram page.

[am1m]

Originally Posted by Sahilrai166

Now the total count of active cases in the district has suddenly gone up to 50...

(Not directed specifically to this quoted post, but just using it as an example to make a point.)

Should be ok, since the new cases will be definitely quarantined on arrival, as is the Karnataka government policy.

There is this fixation, stoked by the media about the 'number' of cases and about them going up. That is contributing to the needless panic around this situation. The 'zone-coloring book' of red, orange, and green based only on this number is also causing this unease. Fortunately that seems to be changing.

Cases rising almost everywhere is inevitable. As long as the cases are identified and managed, that is a good thing. But thanks to the several headlines and counters it's like a reverse marks card where the focus is only on the case numbers and not on other important things like how they are being managed, severity, what percentage actually required hospitalization, ventilator support, the ramping up of facilities to manage them, hospital beds, etc.

[volkman10]

List of those under home quarantine in Karnataka exposed.

Expose the list of home quarantined people with their travel history and their personal data on the Internet is not a good idea. Everyone deserves privacy.

Link

[ninjatalli]

Originally Posted by Sahilrai166

A shocking news for all the Manglorians as 15 passengers who came from Dubai has tested positive for the Corona virus which includes 12 men and 4 women.

The only "shocking" aspect is how they were not tested positive in Dubai itself. Tells a lot about actual infection rates in UAE. Back in Feb and early March, I remember how many of the initial positive cases were of folks who had just returned from UAE; either living/working there or doing a transit stop. I'm sure the actual infection numbers are much much higher than what's getting reported.

With regards to the count of cases in the district, good to know as they will be directly put in quarantine. And considering they were able to do the flights without issues, most of them are probably going to be mild cases of infection only.

[ritz3645]

Originally Posted by Jeroen

Glad

Update from @10DowningStreet

Source :

https://mobile.twitter.com/10Downing...33239164174340