[sierrabravo98]

Believe what you will but under-reporting to the extent that NYT/any useless foreign publication states is just not possible in India considering how our country runs. If the government has declared 4-5 lakh off deaths then the actual figure will not be more than 8-9 lakh (and that is a stretch too). It is just not possible to hide 80 lakh odd deaths which occurred in 1-2 months considering the times we live in(easy access to Internet enabled smartphones/an opposition desperate to seize on any straw to bash the government with). Sadly, like the rest of the country, this forum too is heavily polarized (senseless government bashing is the flavour of the day here among vocal members) and most members will not be willing to budge from their established positions.

[ABHI_1512]

Originally Posted by sierrabravo98

Believe what you will but under-reporting to the extent that NYT/any useless foreign publication states is just not possible in India considering how our country runs. If the government has declared 4-5 lakh off deaths then the actual figure will not be more than 8-9 lakh (and that is a stretch too). It is just not possible to hide 80 lakh odd deaths which occurred in 1-2 months considering the times we live in(easy access to Internet enabled smartphones/an opposition desperate to seize on any straw to bash the government with). Sadly, like the rest of the country, this forum too is heavily polarized (senseless government bashing is the flavour of the day here among vocal members) and most members will not be willing to budge from their established positions.

The times we live in these days are strange indeed. Easy access to internet enabled smartphone you say, I assume you are talking about the cities. In the hinterland and where most of these unreported deaths occurred, the scenario is quite different !!

You see, the number of Covid deaths in the small villages and towns is beyond any count. Not enough facilities for testing and most of the deaths occurred without any treatment. The villagers either cremated the bodies or simply threw them into wherever possible including the rivers and I am not talking about the Ganges only. In the cities, in order to keep the number of Covid deaths down, the actual reason for deaths were mentioned as comorbidity and not with Covid where clearly, the deaths occurred due to Covid only.

The number of Covid positive people is far more than what is being reported in public domain. In cities only, many people never went for the test despite being positive due to the earlier stigma attached. The deaths during the second wave is tragic to the core and UP and Bihar bore the brunt mainly and where the deaths were clearly underreported and so did the other states.

Yes, it’s easy to hide 80 lakh death as well in India if no one from the administration takes responsibility and the villagers don’t know what to do with the corpses !! In our country, an Alzheimer’s afflicted 80 year old is denied a sipper to drink water. So anything is possible and we can only discuss this over our easy internet enabled smartphones

[M35]

Originally Posted by ABHI_1512

TSo anything is possible and we can only discuss this over our easy internet enabled smartphones

Exactly and very well said.

The daily total positive cases ‘reported’ are around 40k in the country while Kerala reports 12-15k on average daily. I just don’t get this, and it’s impossible unless Kerala is an isolated island! This virus is highly contagious and there have never been any effective and scientific containment measures in place to bring the numbers to such a low figure in a country like ours.

I have lost faith in anything that gets reported or said by X or Y in this country!

[DigitalOne]

Here is some positive news :

Two-thirds of Indians have Covid antibodies, 40 crore still at risk: ICMR

Up to two-thirds of the Indian population above the age of six have already been infected with the coronavirus, the latest nationwide serological survey conducted by the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) has found.

The serosurvey, the fourth such exercise, was conducted in June and July

For the first time, minors in the age group of 6 to 17 years were also included in the serosurvey, with antibodies interestingly discovered in nearly half of them.

And here is the good news:

The fact that two-thirds of the population has already been infected — with the sero-prevalence found to be the same in rural and urban areas — reduces the possibility of a fresh round of infections as severe as the second wave was.

Unless the virus mutates in a manner that enables it to escape this immunity, and begins to re-infect people in a big way, the chances of a repeat of a second wave are slim.

Source

[Chetan_Rao]

Note from Support: Please stay clear of political arguments. If/when needed, use 'report post' to request mod intervention, instead of slugging it out.

Thanks!

[msdivy]

Originally Posted by sierrabravo98

It is just not possible to hide 80 lakh odd deaths which occurred in 1-2 months considering the times we live in(easy access to Internet enabled smartphones/an opposition desperate to seize on any straw to bash the government with).

How do smartphones or the Internet help? Who will count the death photos, videos on all the phones in the country? Can Google, Facebook/WhatsApp, Samsung, Apple use AI to count the deaths based on the photos shot and then collate their results?

Originally Posted by Gansan

In a few cases the oxygen ran out and the patient died,the instances were even reported in the TV news.

Here is an account from Goa Medical College and Hospital, What went so wrong with covid in India? and Goa oxygen shortage claims 13 more.

Originally Posted by DigitalOne

And here is the good news:

The good news is when every citizen in the country has access to basic healthcare and then uses it.

[sierrabravo98]

Originally Posted by ABHI_1512

The times we live in these days are strange indeed. Easy access to internet enabled smartphone you say, I assume you are talking about the cities. In the hinterland and where most of these unreported deaths occurred, the scenario is quite different !!

You see, the number of Covid deaths in the small villages and towns is beyond any count. Not enough facilities for testing and most of the deaths occurred without any treatment. The villagers either cremated the bodies or simply threw them into wherever possible including the rivers and I am not talking about the Ganges only. In the cities, in order to keep the number of Covid deaths down, the actual reason for deaths were mentioned as comorbidity and not with Covid where clearly, the deaths occurred due to Covid only.

The number of Covid positive people is far more than what is being reported in public domain. In cities only, many people never went for the test despite being positive due to the earlier stigma attached. The deaths during the second wave is tragic to the core and UP and Bihar bore the brunt mainly and where the deaths were clearly underreported and so did the other states.

Yes, it’s easy to hide 80 lakh death as well in India if no one from the administration takes responsibility and the villagers don’t know what to do with the corpses !! In our country, an Alzheimer’s afflicted 80 year old is denied a sipper to drink water. So anything is possible and we can only discuss this over our easy internet enabled smartphones

1.) Dear sir, this 2021 not 2010. Rural Internet users almost equal urban users (if not outnumber them by a sizeable margin). Digital divide is just a urban lore over which the privileged section of the society loves to indulge in debate over drinks.

https://theprint.in/tech/by-2025-rur...-india/671024/

2.) What you are saying is based on anectodal evidence from a section of the media (unless you went from village to village carrying out a survey). Anectodal evidence is usually tailored to suit ones viewpoint. You want another anecdotal evidence which points to the contrary? My ancestral village in Bihar (situated in a very impoverished region of Bihar) suffered zero deaths due to CoVID. What's more, atleast 10 villages in the surrounding areas combined suffered deaths in the very low 2 figures. Even then, assuming the worst, the actual figure cannot be more than twice the official figure and that is including all the deaths in which a co-morbidity is listed as a cause. Easy to stereotype Bihar & UP despite them performing much better than more developed states depsite the scarce resources which the respective state governments have.

3.) Contrary to what you would like to believe, villagers are not the guileless, naïve and helpless individuals who cannot take on the government. That stereotype would apply better on us urban Indians. They block entire national highways if a vehicle runs over their livestock. It is utterly foolish to assume that they would stay quiet when entire villages would be wiped out in 2 months (which would be true if you believe NYT figures). The state government would fall within a month with the national government following shortly considering that the vote base of the current government is located in the aforementioned states.

4.) As far as the "debating in the comfort of our bedrooms" arguments goes, the same can be said for everyone here. It's best we not indulge in sanctimonious idiosyncrasies.

Like I said, I knew the response my post would generate. Prepared for more brickbats or whatever.

[am1m]

Just got back from Badami, have been going there at least a few times a year for the past 6 years so have gotten on familiar terms with quite a few locals. Badami too has reported very low covid deaths, none recently in fact. That's because any serious cases are shifted to the bigger hospital in Bagalkote and fatalities recorded there. So officially Badami's covid 'record' is very good.

Let's not reduce every topic to a 'us vs them' or 'pro vs anti-govt.' thing guys. There are many layers and interpretations in between. Let's base our opinions on fact, informed by people who are qualified to write on the subject:
https://www.hindustantimes.com/opini...273326958.html. If that means having to change our views when presented with data, that should be a good thing.

[tsk1979]

Originally Posted by sierrabravo98

Believe what you will but under-reporting to the extent that NYT/any useless foreign publication states is just not possible in India considering how our country runs. If the government has declared 4-5 lakh off deaths then the actual figure will not be more than 8-9 lakh (and that is a stretch too). It is just not possible to hide 80 lakh odd deaths which occurred in 1-2 months considering the times we live in(easy access to Internet enabled smartphones/an opposition desperate to seize on any straw to bash the government with). Sadly, like the rest of the country, this forum too is heavily polarized (senseless government bashing is the flavour of the day here among vocal members) and most members will not be willing to budge from their established positions.

Yes, I agree. We should not look at foreign publications. Only look at Indian ones which said that the excess death count in some cities for the same period during the delta wave for 25X (YoY)

Like Dainik Bhaskar

https://mobile.twitter.com/Rukmini/s...412931/photo/1

https://mobile.twitter.com/Rukmini/s...62185964412931
Now they may be an arm of some useless foreign publication, in which case I apologize

[ABHI_1512]

Originally Posted by sierrabravo98

Like I said, I knew the response my post would generate. Prepared for more brickbats or whatever.

Thanks for your insights. Just to clarify that whatever I wrote came from various friends of mine who are posted in reputable positions and they represent pan India. Many of them are doctors and they have presented a pretty grim positions vis a vis Covid. Mentioning UP and Bihar didn’t mean I would not count deaths in MP or Assam or Gujarat or even a Maharashtra. Every state, I repeat, every state in India has under reported the death and positivity figures.

Why do I say that, it’s because I have seen people who were recuperating from Covid after consultations with the doctors, without taking the RTPCR tests. Some of them have even died in the process during the second wave and this in the cities. Regarding the hinterlands, it’s possible that your place didn’t have many deaths just like many districts across the North East are relatively free from even a single positive case of Covid. But there are instances where deaths were unreported due to stigma or due to no medical facilities.

We are here to discuss the situation due to Covid. I am not here to be party to this non sense of anti government or pro government tirade. I have lost people with no fault of theirs in a city like New Delhi and Gurgaon who had the best possible resources to them. I have that much imagination to know what have happened in the places which are beyond the public realm.

Just a simple example of why positive numbers and deaths reported can be misleading.

https://www.indiatoday.in/coronaviru...552-2021-04-30

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...w/82566921.cms

This forum is for discussion and I would be very happy if what you are saying is indeed true. Who wouldn’t want less deaths and misery of our fellow countrymen ?

[Samurai]

Originally Posted by sierrabravo98

3.) Contrary to what you would like to believe, villagers are not the guile, naive and helpless individuals who cannot take on the government. That stereotype would apply better on us urban Indians.

This I agree. I had mentioned the same many years ago.

[mvadg]

I don't know about covid related numbers, but I know not to trust any numbers produced by any entity in India. And this includes things like not trusting your blood test results from non-NABL laboratories, or even made-in-India glucometers.

True story (and off topic, sorry), I bought my mom an Indian brand glucometer called Pulsatom after reading their slick ads. After a while, it started showing erratic readings and I took it to the manufacturer's service center - it was "adjusted" to show the "correct" reading - saw the technician adjust the potentiometer and decided to throw the device in the dustbin.
This is how my lab instructor also expected "perfect" results and gave me a bad grade for my physics experiments. So jugaad is our tradition and our culture.

And since most of us are familiar with the IT industry, we know how the customer sends their representatives to oversee every certification and every process, even to their captive facilities, because they don't trust us, and knowing how we do things (including the so called certifying agencies), would you blame them?

Covid death rates will be a mystery forever given how much is at stake. Unless there is some way of counting deaths without conflict of interest (via technology) I would assume the worst - my guess is 100X. It is basically my index that combines a bad governance score, a veracity score and a big ego score

[DigitalOne]

This is a genuine attempt to understand underreporting of deaths.

I come to know of unknown-but-within-my-social-circles people's deaths via these
- Office portal condolence messages (employee strength in Bangalore is ~6000).
- Layout/Apartment WhatsApp group (~1000 residents)
- School, College, Family, and other such association Whatsapp groups(~300 people);
- Team-bhp condolence posts

So did I read about 5x or 10x jump in the number of all cause deaths in 2021 as compared to previous years? Definitely not. Even if I remove my company colleagues from the list (as they are the younger demographics) I still don't see the 5x or 10x jump in "all cause" deaths.

Does anybody personally see this happening, that 5/10x unknown-but-within-your-social-circles died (of all causes) in 2021 than in the BC (Before Covid)era?

5/10x underreporting is an exaggeration? Or is my analysis wrong?

[V.Narayan]

Originally Posted by DigitalOne

This is a genuine attempt to understand underreporting of deaths.

I come to know of unknown-but-within-my-social-circles people's deaths via these
- Office portal condolence messages (employee strength in Bangalore is ~6000).
- Layout/Apartment WhatsApp group (~1000 residents)
- School, College, Family, and other such association Whatsapp groups(~300 people);
- Team-bhp condolence posts

So did I read about 5x or 10x jump in the number of all cause deaths in 2021 as compared to previous years? Definitely not. Even if I remove my company colleagues from the list (as they are the younger demographics) I still don't see the 5x or 10x jump in "all cause" deaths.

Does anybody personally see this happening, that 5/10x unknown-but-within-your-social-circles died (of all causes) in 2021 than in the BC (Before Covid)era?

5/10x underreporting is an exaggeration? Or is my analysis wrong?

You make a very valid point which would be on the minds of many. It is a common human fallacy, which all of us including me fall prey to, that my/our observation automatically applies to the whole universe of that subject. The personal observations of any one of us, you, me anyone, is 1/1380,000,000 of Indian humanity. Further our observation capacity in such cases is largely limited to a social strata and geography. We cannot determine the whole based on observing such a tiny portion, not at least in matters of social-health-behaviour kind of matters. The numbers estimated by various agencies that do this for a living vary from 3X to 11X. The truth is in between. We will never know for sure. The only point we can be reasonably sure is that it isn't 1X. And this applies not just to India but dozens of other developing countries.

Just for the record I know of about 15 deaths due to covid among the family members of those relatives, friends, employees, associates that I know directly in the first degree including one where a family of four was killed and another where both spouses died. And this is in the first degree circle not friend of friend sort of thing.

[poloman]

India is a country where death registrations are in high 90 percentiles. So it is not possible to hide the overall death counts. How ever, deaths due to Covid may be under reported because of the complexity of Covid after effects and over all decrease in other mortalities due to lock downs and better hygiene practices. Also the cause of death in death certificates may be ambiguous in many cases due to the nature of this disease. This can be a common factor for the lower per million deaths across the developing countries.

Some studies like this point to only a marginal increase in mortality rates even in developed countries.

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/excess...tries-in-2020/


Latest sero survey says 2/3rds of Indians have Covid antibodies. So many people who died due to other reasons if tested may be +ve at the time of the death or some time before the death. Does that mean those deaths all should be counted under Covid? This is real complex problem with no clear answers.

So people will keep arguing in whichever way it suits them. The truth may lie somewhere in between with some proper Covid deaths and covid induced deaths not getting reported. May be 1.5 to 2 times will be a good estimate.