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Old 27th March 2020, 11:32   #1336
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re: The Coronavirus Thread

These two screenshots from r/coronavirus sub-Reddit are empirical data points in proving how important is the wide-spread testing.

Iceland finds that 50% cases are asymptomatic. That alone, if you apply to India, renders the entire lockdown without testing useless because we are only testing very few people with symptoms that too with a travel or contact history.

The other example is of SK. Korea never locked down cities. They just tested and isolated cases.

T
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Old 27th March 2020, 11:43   #1337
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re: The Coronavirus Thread

For a country with India's population, inferring any conclusions from a sample size of ~28k is a laughable proposition. Agreed that we don't have the required number of test kits, but the government putting out random statements on community transmission, infection rates going down etc based on this sample size is a risky endeavor. All it does is lure the population into a false sense of victory/security. Already I hear of many from the educated class mentioning that we have successfully avoided a pandemic and that the lock-down should end earlier. And then there is the big question mark on the quality of tests being performed. I've read one too many cases of false positives to have any confidence in our numbers.

At least the US has a decent idea of their situation and they have the resources to combat this. Unfortunately, I don't think we have a clue on the numbers in India and we definitely don't have the resources. Warm weather, in-built immunity all things considered, my scientific brain just can't fathom that India with its population density has only 700 cases compared to the EU/US with their numbers in the thousands. Something doesn't add up and I don't think the government knows either.


We need to ramp up testing. This data is critical from every perspective. There is no point in building a 20k bed quarantine center in a place where there are no clusters. Or figuring where we are in terms of infection stages. Or figuring out when the restrictions can be lifted. Unless we test we'll never know.


For those who like statistics, check out:

https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest or at follow him @jburnmurdoch

Last edited by yd_gli : 27th March 2020 at 11:49.
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Old 27th March 2020, 12:42   #1338
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re: The Coronavirus Thread

Dr. Ramanan Laxminarayan should be able clear up a lot of questions that people are asking here - these are the same ones that Dr. Vivek and other doctors on this thread have answered already, but all in one place and the video is easier to watch than reading .

Same with the advice from Dr. Fauci





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Old 27th March 2020, 12:50   #1339
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re: The Coronavirus Thread

I am no expert but has been in frontline during the recent breakout of H1N1 and Dengue(now yearly). It would rain cases if there is prevalence. I doubt there are any significant number of sick cases at present. But I anticipate the scene to change and I hope it should not be massive by 29-30-31, that is 5 to 7 days after the lock down started. All the elderly, diabetics and immunosuppressed would start manifesting immediately and the count would start multiplying. By the end of two weeks of lock-down most community transmission would have settled down to the clusters, if we are lucky or all hell will break loose if it is widespread.
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Old 27th March 2020, 13:09   #1340
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re: The Coronavirus Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by mvadg View Post
Dr. Ramanan Laxminarayan should be able clear up a lot of questions that people are asking here - these are the same ones that Dr. Vivek and other doctors on this thread have answered already, but all in one place and the video is easier to watch than reading.
I am not sure how kindly would Dr. Vivek take if his medical opinion is read with that of someone who graduated in engineering and goes around as a Doctor by virtue of PhD in economics (his linkedin bio link). This guy has been going around claiming how India will have millions of cases and all news channels are heralding him as an authority.

I know this post has no value to the thread but just wanted to highlight how news is being spun and fear is spread.
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Old 27th March 2020, 13:24   #1341
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re: The Coronavirus Thread

Haven't checked credentials of folks, but as KSameer mentions, amidst the epidemic that's become a pandemic, we surely are being subjected to the pain of much infodemic!

As is elegantly put forth in this article (be a seemingly REAL doctor) -

Quote:
...the infodemic is potentially a bigger threat than the coronavirus pandemic. The infodemic is the viral spread of misinformation.

most health professionals like myself understand only what the experts in virology, epidemiology and public health help us to understand. Of course we have background to put it all together
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Old 27th March 2020, 13:33   #1342
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re: The Coronavirus Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by ksameer1234 View Post
... of someone who graduated in engineering and goes around as a Doctor by virtue of PhD in economics
Quote:
Originally Posted by Miyata View Post
Haven't checked credentials of folks, but as KSameer mentions... -
Sorry, this is news to me . But at least he did not advocate any miracle cures like certain politicians and their cronies, thankfully.
Mods - Kindly delete my above post

Last edited by mvadg : 27th March 2020 at 13:45.
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Old 27th March 2020, 13:34   #1343
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re: The Coronavirus Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by ksameer1234 View Post
I am not sure how kindly would Dr. Vivek take if his medical opinion is read with that of someone who graduated in engineering and goes around as a Doctor by virtue of PhD in economics (his linkedin bio link). This guy has been going around claiming how India will have millions of cases and all news channels are heralding him as an authority.

I know this post has no value to the thread but just wanted to highlight how news is being spun and fear is spread.
Had the same thought about this guy, as if he wants millions of indians to die, the biased BBC channel started presenting him as an expert.
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Old 27th March 2020, 13:52   #1344
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re: The Coronavirus Thread

Sharing an interesting thought
The Coronavirus Thread-fb_img_1585297100824.jpg
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Old 27th March 2020, 14:11   #1345
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re: The Coronavirus Thread

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Originally Posted by Turbanator View Post
When will the Authorities realize that the testing & taking out the infectious people is the only way. Else this is never going to get over unless we get help from some mythological gods and goddesses.
What the government is trying to do by the lockdown is to stop spread. All those who have the virus will show symptoms and if severe, get treated at a hospital. They will not infect people outside their house so contact tracing will be easy.

In these 21 days the asymptomatic virus positive person will become virus negative and wont transmit disease anymore outside his own home. This will reduce the burden on hospitals leading to proper care for all.

People under surveillance will have ended their quarantine and isolation freeing up manpower to monitor other new cases or suspects or contacts.

Everybody cannot be tested because, it is not possible.
Locally produced test kit costs Rs.80000 for 100 tests. This translates to Rs.800 per test per person. This is just for the test. The cost is just prohibitive. The imported ones are even more expensive. We don't have so much quantity of kits. These tests are not over the counter tests that can be done by people themselves. A person who tests positive has to be tested again till he/she becomes Covid negative. Focussing the testing on everybody will lead to chaos and wastage of precious resources and manpower. People with even minor flu will visit hospitals to get tested. People just being worried about being infected will visit hospitals leading to a deluge of people at hospitals where they will come in contact with actually Covid positive people.

The government is not working on whims of the politicians. It is being advised by career experts in infectious diseases, ICMR, experts on satistical modeling, etc.

Providing rations and essentials to poor is also a very crucial step for the combat of Covid19. If poor people do not have essentials then the lockdowns will not be implemented effectively because they will have to come out and work.

One more thing that is very important is that the government is putting in place the infrastructure to handle cases at dedicated places. One hospital atleast for each district completely dedicated to Covid patients. Masks, PPE, medical equipments, beds are arranged. Capacity augmentation is being done. Nobody wants to go to war unprepared.
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Old 27th March 2020, 14:15   #1346
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re: The Coronavirus Thread

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Originally Posted by laluks View Post
Kerala Government is doing exactly
An informative article

https://www.ndtv.com/opinion/this-is...ome-topstories
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Old 27th March 2020, 14:26   #1347
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re: The Coronavirus Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by splitsecond View Post
Had the same thought about this guy, as if he wants millions of indians to die, the biased BBC channel started presenting him as an expert.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mvadg View Post
Sorry, this is news to me . But at least he did not advocate any miracle cures like certain politicians and their cronies, thankfully.
Mods - Kindly delete my above post
From the linkedin link posted here I understand he is a PhD in Economics. But I also see that he is Director of a research organisation named "Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics & Policy". Not sure who funds this organisation, but a quick search on who.int seems to show them referring to quite a few of their studies and projects.
Btw, he also seems to have a Master's Degree in Public Health (Epidemiology)

So, I would like to keep an open mind about his views irrespective of his PhD in Economics.

Last edited by LobsterB : 27th March 2020 at 14:28.
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Old 27th March 2020, 14:42   #1348
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re: The Coronavirus Thread

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Originally Posted by LobsterB View Post
he also seems to have a Master's Degree in Public Health (Epidemiology).
His article appeared in The New York Times today titled "What India Needs to Fight the Virus" His credentials include apart from being the director of the Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics & Policy in Washington. he is also a senior research scholar at Princeton.

That apart, there is a greater tendency for the researchers to boost their credential by exaggerating the number to further their personal goal, so I will take their writing with a pinch of salt. But his numbers are scary to say the least.

Take away:

1. Estimates from our group of scientists and others suggest the actual number of infection cases in India is likely to be about 21,000 by now.

2. Our initial estimates showed that 300 million to 500 million Indians were likely to be infected with the coronavirus by the end of July. Most of the cases would be without symptoms or with mild infections, but about a tenth — 30 million to 50 million — would most likely be severe

3. India has four to six weeks before the coronavirus outbreak hits its peak.

4. To some extent, demonetization has helped by moving parts of the economy to digital payments that now reach about 40 percent of the population

5. The lockdown has most likely saved millions of lives.

For me, it appears he desperately wants to get into the policy making apparatus or offer consultation to the GOI.

Last edited by doxinboy : 27th March 2020 at 14:44.
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Old 27th March 2020, 14:44   #1349
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re: The Coronavirus Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by LobsterB View Post
From the linkedin link posted here I understand he is a PhD in Economics. But I also see that he is Director of a research organisation named "Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics & Policy". Not sure who funds this organisation, but a quick search on who.int seems to show them referring to quite a few of their studies and projects.
Btw, he also seems to have a Master's Degree in Public Health (Epidemiology)
Epidemiology and public health are multi disciplinary fields in which you need economics and graph theory as much as you need medicine.

Quote:
Originally Posted by splitsecond View Post
Had the same thought about this guy, as if he wants millions of indians to die, the biased BBC channel started presenting him as an expert.
"Biased BBC" really? I mean we have our share of channels here that primarily subsist on noisy anchors and fake news, and the BBC of all channels, for gods sake, is being accused of bias? What is wrong with the world?

Quote:
Originally Posted by doxinboy View Post
2. Our initial estimates showed that 300 million to 500 million Indians were likely to be infected with the coronavirus by the end of July. Most of the cases would be without symptoms or with mild infections, but about a tenth — 30 million to 50 million — would most likely be severe

3. India has four to six weeks before the coronavirus outbreak hits its peak.
(...)
For me, it appears he desperately wants to get into the policy making apparatus or offer consultation to the GOI.
With exponential or even power law growth .. we might not be far off from the estimate this man had. Extrapolate this curve if you please and see what numbers you are likely to get within a couple of months, and how much if you flatten the curve. And can we please stop claiming "this man is making such statements only to get consulting assignments"? That is a head in the sand attitude.
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Last edited by hserus : 27th March 2020 at 14:52.
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Old 27th March 2020, 14:48   #1350
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re: The Coronavirus Thread

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Originally Posted by Turbanator View Post
The writer is the Finance Minister of Kerala.
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