[tsk1979]

Money printer go Brrrrrrr....


I am seriously wondering, the long term effects of the infinite money printer going Brrrrrrrr

[ashokrajagopal]

Originally Posted by ramzsys

Been reading Jayati Ghosh articles in Frontline and Hindu for more than a decade.

They are experts in vividly portraying gloom in the name of reality but they are proved wrong/irrelevant because humanity thrives on optimism and hope, pessimism will only lead to anxiety and depression.

Another website I can compare is zerohedge. Everyday they come up with seemingly logical explanation why 'it all will collapse' and it never happened for the reasons they said.

Nobody is denying 'damage done to economy', the PM clearly said he's preferring lives over economy. There is no getting back to normal, it is a 'new normal' to look forward to.

Not questioning the principle of hope etc above (it in fact is very welcome), but there s no comparison with what Indian academics talk about rural economy vs zerohedge and other finance doomsday stuff.
Rural India and the lower strata of the economy have been struggling for some years now. Until it started showing up in headline numbers like low growth, it didn't get covered in mainstream even though development economists had always been pointing out to these. From 2017 onwards there are calls pointing that the GDP growth is going to be affected and MSMEs will suffer and all the calls have been proven right despite stock market bull runs etc.
Now, well now it really is doomsday for rural indian economy.

[volkman10]

Clear we have entered recession: IMF chief

It is clear that we have entered a recession" that will be worse than in 2009 following the global financial crisis

for the overall financial needs of emerging markets is US$2.5 trillion.But warned that estimate "is on the lower end

Link

[AMG Power]

One of the few businesses that could have benefitted from the current turn of events and done well for themselves is Big Basket / Grofers.

With the corona virus and lockdowns around for sometime in neighbouring countries they could have been prepared and anticipated a huge demand for their services. However they were caught napping as is typical of several incompetent managements around.

Recruitments could have been done and folks asked to be on stand by / Additional arrangements with suppliers / vendors / supermarkets could have been discussed. Instead the site was down as they were supposedly "seeking clearances".

What a sad way to run a business when you have landed up with a monopoly / duopoly for the whole of India. If they had done it right they may have changed the buying habits of a lot of Indian and vastly increased their customer base after all this was sorted.

Instead as of now the site is slow, works in some locations not in others, and you don't get a lot of products.

So another company that could have benefitted hugely from the current situation, bites the dust instead.

[balenoed_]

I was thinking most, if not all, flights were grounded globally. Was just casually checking Flightradar to see how empty the skies were but to my surprise I saw this:

[hondafanboy]

Originally Posted by AMG Power

One of the few businesses that could have benefitted from the current turn of events and done well for themselves is Big Basket / Grofers. ..

Absolutely, spot on. I have been trying for couple of days now and haven't managed to get even a single thing. Really, waste of resources and opportunity. I have never been a big fan of such online grocery things anyway.

[mvadg]

Originally Posted by balenoed_

I was thinking most, if not all, flights were grounded globally. Was just casually checking Flightradar to see how empty the skies were but to my surprise I saw this:

Attachment 1984912

Any explanation as to why, or is it that the density of flights is not reflected in the graphic - sorry, I have no idea how it is supposed to look in normal times?

[AZT]

U.S. will be 'compensated' for assistance to airlines

Under the bill signed by Trump Friday, Mnuchin can demand equity, warrants or other financial instruments to “provide appropriate compensation to the federal government.” Mnuchin did not directly answer whether he will seek warrants or equity

[Miyata]

From a post by Nouriel Roubini where he hints a transition from global recession to depression (few selected excerpts) -

The shock to the global economy from COVID-19 has been both faster and more severe than the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC) and even the Great Depression. In those two previous episodes, stock markets collapsed by 50% or more, credit markets froze up, massive bankruptcies followed, unemployment rates soared above 10%, and GDP contracted at an annualized rate of 10% or more. But all of this took around three years to play out. In the current crisis, similarly dire macroeconomic and financial outcomes have materialized in three weeks.

every component of aggregate demand – consumption, capital spending, exports – is in unprecedented free fall

The contraction that is now underway looks to be neither V- nor U- nor L-shaped (a sharp downturn followed by stagnation). Rather, it looks like an I: a vertical line representing financial markets and the real economy plummeting.

This trifecta of risks – uncontained pandemics, insufficient economic-policy arsenals, and geopolitical white swans – will be enough to tip the global economy into persistent depression and a runaway financial-market meltdown.

[V.Narayan]

Originally Posted by Miyata

From a post by Nouriel Roubini where he hints a transition from global recession to depression (few selected excerpts) -

Thank you. Can you point me to the link for this article.

[Miyata]

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

Thank you. Can you point me to the link for this article.

Apologies. Missed putting that.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/co...oubini-2020-03

[ninjatalli]

Originally Posted by balenoed_

I was thinking most, if not all, flights were grounded globally. Was just casually checking Flightradar to see how empty the skies were but to my surprise I saw this:

Globally, yes, there are still too many flights in the air. Unfortunately, worldwide countries have not closed their flights.

But wrt to India, if you zoom in and look at the flights around India; very few of them are heading to/from Indian cities (I found only 1 flight heading out from Bangalore); which is a very good sign. Also, this map also shows military flights too; there were a few Indian airforce flights tagged/flying around; as well as cargo flights, which are in full motion across the globe.

[GTO]

Dominos USA is hiring 10,000 employees, and I'm sure it's the same story with Dominos India. In this "live at home" time, nothing quite like a cheesy pizza to sink your teeth into - full article:

Nearly all restaurants will see declines during the novel coronavirus pandemic, as state and local governments around the U.S. restrict dine-in services. But the more business a restaurant normally gets from takeout or delivery, the better-equipped it will be to keep up its sales.

Domino's Pizza (NYSEPZ) and Papa John's International (NASDAQ:PZZA) are two such chains, helping them cater to hungry consumers during the downturn.

As of March 26, 32 states in the U.S. had ordered restaurants to stop dine-in services and to offer takeout and delivery only. That includes such big markets as California, New York, and Pennsylvania. The suspension of dine-in services will continue for an unknown period of time, hurting sales at practically all restaurants.

Pizza is the second-largest category in the U.S. quick-service restaurant (QSR) sector, with a value of $37.8 billion in 2019. It's also a highly popular comfort food, which will continue to be in demand during these tense times. According to Yelp's Local Economy Coronavirus Impact Report, pizzerias were gaining consumer interest, up 53% week over week as of March 24. Fast food was also up 64%.

[TRR]

Came across this interesting study published recently. Has some credibility considering that a Federal Reserve Board member is an author. It is an empirical study on the effects of measures taken by cities in the US during the Spanish Flu pandemic in 1918.

Contrary to the doomsday predictions going around, this study seems to suggest aggressively tackling the disease would yield greater benefits for the economy during the post-pandemic period.

Link to the study here. Some interesting excerpts from the abstract below:

Using geographic variation in mortality during the 1918 Flu Pandemic in the U.S., we find that more exposed areas experience a sharp and persistent decline in economic activity.

We find that cities that intervened earlier and more aggressively do not perform worse and, if anything, grow faster after the pandemic is over. Our findings thus indicate that non-pharmaceutical interventions not only lower mortality; they also mitigate the adverse economic consequences of a pandemic.

Some excerpts drawn from an article on the study:

Far from hurting the economy, what are called non-pharmaceutical interventions — for example, shutting schools, establishing quarantines and restricting business hours — mitigate economic harm as well as reduce mortality, the researchers determined.

Reacting 10 days earlier to the arrival of the pandemic in a given city increases manufacturing employment by around 5% in the post period, the researchers said. Implementing restrictions for an additional 50 days increases manufacturing employment by 6.5% after the pandemic abates.

Anecdotal evidence suggests that the results have parallels in the COVID-19 outbreak, the researchers found.

Countries such as Taiwan and Singapore have not only limited infection growth but also appear to have mitigated the worst economic disruptions of the pandemic.

I am not qualified enough to know how this closely this would reflect on the Indian scenario, considering this study was based on US cities in 1918. But still, makes for an interesting read in these trying times.

[tsk1979]

Originally Posted by balenoed_

I was thinking most, if not all, flights were grounded globally. Was just casually checking Flightradar to see how empty the skies were but to my surprise I saw this:

Attachment 1984912

Looks busy eh. But apart from US, flight traffic is greatly reduced. Even US is reduced.The numbrer of flights is so much that due to size of icons it looks as if its totally jam packed.

However if you zoom in, you will realise that there is just one flight from Iran to DEL which will land in Delhi. No other flights to or from Delhi. Over Bangalore I see one plane which just took of to an undisclosed destination