[msdivy]

Originally Posted by Gsynch

I believe so, if we don't have systems to track, how can one arrive at a number?

Originally Posted by Sutripta

This lack of data is a serious problem.

How about just asking the folks, like census? Will be done in half a day for small-sized village. A month more can be spent on tabulating the information.

Ideally we should migrate towards a mandatory GPS (or IRNSS) based tracking collar for all travellers. A full fledged envy of the world surveillance state.

How introducing passport, Visa for inter-state travel?

[Sutripta]

Originally Posted by msdivy

How introducing passport, Visa for inter-state travel?

No, no, no.
Visas and passports are a means of restricting and controlling movement of people. The hallmarks of totalatarian states. We are not a totalatarian state. We just want to know where one (you) is. For effective delivery of services by the state which one is entitled to.

Sutripta

[m8002?]

Originally Posted by Gsynch

What a pity! I guess that's why we need something like NPR, NRC etc. to track floating population between states and their home base.

When you first mentioned this, I thought it was sarcasm. Guess when Gods play, we mortals just have to accept and obey.

[ABHI_1512]

Originally Posted by Gsynch

What a pity! I guess that's why we need something like NPR, NRC etc. to track floating population between states and their home base.

Originally Posted by Sutripta

This lack of data is a serious problem. Ideally we should migrate towards a mandatory GPS (or IRNSS) based tracking collar for all travellers. A full fledged envy of the world surveillance state.

Originally Posted by msdivy

How introducing passport, Visa for inter-state travel?

Originally Posted by Sutripta

No, no, no.
Visas and passports are a means of restricting and controlling movement of people.

Originally Posted by m8002?

When you first mentioned this, I thought it was sarcasm. Guess when Gods play, we mortals just have to accept and obey.

Seriously off topic here for just one remark that was originally addressed to me. I just wish this was FB and I could have used the ‘ha-ha’ emoji for every quoted post above but with varied emotions. Usually I am not short of words but for now I seriously am. And Sutripta Sir- You have now perfected an art form which is seldom understood these days

[v1p3r]

Originally Posted by Gsynch

What a pity! I guess that's why we need something like NPR, NRC etc. to track floating population between states and their home base.

The Germans perfected the art with indelible ink tattooed onto each arm. Easy to recognise, easy to register, no chance of duplication, suitably low-tech also. Wonder what's stopping us from doing that.

[mvadg]

Originally Posted by v1p3r

The Germans perfected the art with indelible ink tattooed onto each arm. Easy to recognise, easy to register, no chance of duplication, suitably low-tech also. Wonder what's stopping us from doing that.

Sorry, couldn't resist joining the party , how about branding with a hot iron? Slave era tech, with no chance of ever being mistaken for a special passport diplomat!

[Behemoth]

Or like in the Movie "Intime", they embedded everyone with a unique time clock and identity. Such a dystopian reality is not quite far with the way it is becoming autocratic and answerable to none.
Jokes aside our government is just living in denial mode - good thing though is that the politicians are also getting affected inspite of all the precautions they take. Ironically they get the best of treatement - plasma treatment and expensive medicines while the common man is left jobless, hopeless and not even counted when dead - with their time having run out.

[Sutripta]

I think we should stop discussing this aspect. The maturity of this forum has seen to it that the discussion has steered clear of the trigger words like NPR. The longer the discussion continues, the more chance that discussion will get heated around those words.

Keeping this in mind, though there are a lot of (smart Alec?) comments I could make, I'm bowing out.

Sutripta

[volkman10]

Anticipating sales during the festive season, Maruti Suzuki posts a whooping 33% jump in its September auto sales for 2020 versus the same month of 2019.
Note the 2019 figures are a low base number to start with, Never the less it shows a great stride of things to come.






Source: Maruti Suzuki

[avishar]

Some encouraging numbers coming in today.


1. Railways freight loading has increased by 15% over last September

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com...w/78430336.cms

It has increased in both volume & value terms.

Freight loaded by the Indian Railways grew 15% in September this year compared to the same period last year, Railway Board Chairman Vinod Kumar Yadav said on Thursday.

Freight revenue of the national transporter has also increased commensurately last month. In September 2020, the Indian Railways earned Rs 9896.86 crores from freight loading which is 13.5% higher compared to last year’s earnings for the same period which stood at Rs 8716.29 crores.

2. Power consumption in the country has also increased vs September last year.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com...w/78426147.cms

Power consumption in the country registered a growth of 5.6 per cent in September at 113.54 billion units (BU) after six-month gap since March this year, showing spurt in sluggish industrial and commercial activities amid COVID-19 pandemic.

3. GST collection reaches the Rs 95,000 Cr. mark

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com...w/78425513.cms

Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections for September stood at Rs 95,480 crore, the highest on a monthly basis since the lockdown began in March this year.

Collections for September were 10.4% higher than August and 4% higher than last year same month, the finance ministry said in a statement Thursday.

4. Merchandise exports have grown compared to last year

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com...w/78433784.cms

NEW DELHI: After contracting for six months in a row, the country's exports grew by 5.27 per cent to USD 27.4 billion in September, Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said on Thursday.

5. Manufacturing PMI is above 50 and infact at 56.8, indicating strong manufacturing demand and orders.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com...w/78420640.cms

Buoyed by accelerated increases in new orders and production, India’s factory activity expanded to its highest level in eight and a half years, a private survey showed on Thursday.

The IHS Markit India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) increased to 56.8 in September from 52 in August, signalling back-to-back improvements in the health of the sector since the easing of lockdown restrictions in June.

6. Petrol sales is up 2% compared last year, diesel not yet there 7.3% less than last year.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com...w/78420799.cms

NEW DELHI: Petrol sales rose 2 per cent in September from a year earlier while diesel consumption was 7.3 per cent lower in a sign that oil demand recovery was on track despite record monthly rise in Covid cases in the country.

Petrol made a smart recovery in September after being down 7.4 per cent in August from a year earlier. Petrol sales gained 10.5 per cent in September over August, as per sales data from state-run oil companies that control nearly 90 per cent of the fuel retail

7. Auto sales has been great all around

Maruti, Tata, Hyundai, Kia, Honda have all grown fast. Overall auto sales is up 31% over September 2019.

Other including two-wheeler makers like Hero and Bajaj has shown growth of between 15 to 20%

Tractor sales has anyway been consistently high this year.

Even commercial vehicles has seen growth Month-on-Month

[hondafanboy]

Good to see those numbers. Hopefully they will stay or even keep going up in speed coming months. Especially around Dassehra and Diwali time. Fingers crossed.

[whitewing]

https://www.livemint.com/politics/po...702753729.html

The Indian government will waive “interest on interest" charges for loans of up to 20 million rupees ($273,000) during its six-month repayment moratorium because of the pandemic, The Times of India reported, citing a finance ministry affidavit to the Supreme Court on Friday.

While the tax payer now has to pay for the "interest on interest", hopefully this covers altleast the ones most in need.

[V.Narayan]

World Bank's latest estimate indicates a -9.6% contraction in the Indian economy this year.

https://www.indiatoday.in/business/s...629-2020-10-08

If this indeed happens it will be the worst economic performance of the Indian economy since independence. I would tend to believe this number give or take one percent point this way or that. The Govt has gone shy of releasing routine data on the economy probably in the hope of containing political fallout. But you can't fool the person who has lost a job or business or is now struggling to honour his/her debt. In this day and age of internet, social media and international news sources at the click of a keyboard holding back routine data must rank as a confusingly churlish gesture.

In past economic setbacks India's strength lay in its informal sector which was often less affected by factors that impeded the formal sector. This time around the informal sector has been severely hit twice in the last 4 years and may not have the resilience or weight to chug along. I hope I am wrong.

[ABHI_1512]

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

In past economic setbacks India's strength lay in its informal sector which was often less affected by factors that impeded the formal sector. This time around the informal sector has been severely hit twice in the last 4 years and may not have the resilience or weight to chug along. I hope I am wrong.

Rightly said Sir, the informal sector which was already on the death bed after the great master stroke to remove black money from the economy, collapsed spectacularly after second master stroke. The resilience has been broken to such an extent that its a tall ask to even get back to half fit position now.

Some critical sectors have been dealt a body blow and I won’t be surprised if all are left to fend for themselves. The impetus or stimulus packages are great stress busters to listen to though, all the hullabaloo not withstanding !!

[saket77]

Posting after a while on this thread.

Talking about the informal sector, a lot of companies either have shut down already or will go down because of two reasons- one, obviously because of lack of demand & sales and two, those who might have pulled it otherwise may have gone for closure for other reasons. For example, a sole proprietor nearing retirement who might have been thinking to wind up his business in a year or two might have finally decided to hang their shoes during the lacklustre period of COVID. Some may have found alternate small businesses/ shops/etc after winding their primary ones for same reasons. This is sad at the micro level and from an individual's point of view but there's a silver lining at the macro economic level. This loss of small or informal sector business will eventually add to the bigger players in the organised sector for the supply of same goods or services and their market share will eventually increase because the demand will finally go up again and in absence of those small businesses to fulfil the same, the consumers will look upto the other bigger players who survive this period. In that sense, we can expect a good bounce back in the economy as most of the measurement metrics are set to measure the formal economy. Sadly, this will be achieved at the cost of many small informal businesses winding up which will obviously be coupled with huge number of job losses at this level.

So, post-COVID, I expect a solid, resilient economy and good stock market returns. This is what will happen naturally. But we have another issue in form of; if I may use the word, a 'naive' government who is not too adept at tackling the financial policies, COVID or no covid. Wouldn't use the word fiscal here. The problem is evident when they want to open all cans of worms at once simultaneously and clean it, all across. You simply cannot do this at one go and in a hurry in a country like India with such a vast & diversified economy where the informal sectors account for a huge percentage. Obviously one cannot blame the covid on any political government and that's a saving grace for the ruling power. The interest rates don't seem to be going up anytime soon and this should help access to capital for businesses. So, good in a way. Thankfully RBI is marching in the right direction, plus, I expect some good news in coming days in form of a better stimulus package and this time the Govt better realises that you can provide stimulus to a company only till it's gasping and it makes no difference once it dies. So, provide the help before the company files for bankruptcy or winds up; post that it is of no use. And it would be nice if this time it is more than just being on paper.