[V.Narayan]

256 chaat, paan sellers in Kanpur found to be crorepatis in I-T, GST probe


https://incometaxindiaefiling.co/in-...g-details.html

The Govt in tax investigations on Income Tax and GST find 256 paan wallahs, chaat wallahs and other snack sellers owning property and arable land worth tens of crores while still staying beneath the radar of both income tax and GST. I must compliment the direct and indirect tax authorities for probing into this. I'm sure if the Govt probes such cases in India's top 20 cities we will help keep tax collections healthy for a few and more years. Fact is the Govt, for various reasons including covid, is struggling to make ends meet and actions like this ring loud and clear to tax evaders.

[PGA]

Narrating a story about impact of Covid in the farming sector. Punjab normally gets good amount of labour from UP and Bihar for paddy transplantation work in the months of May and Jun. Normally it is about 45 days of work and entire countryside is flooded and paddy transplanted, the labour gets good work for 45 to 60 days, for many bulk earnings for the year. This year majority of the work got completed in 30 days flat. Reason the countryside was flooded with labour, my area which used to get about 15 teams of about 10 people for work got more than 25 teams hence the work got completed within a month. But the economic impact was that the transplanting price which used to be between Rs 3500 to Rs 4000/- per acre last year crashed to Rs 2500. Discussing the issue with them made me realise the gullibility of our masses and their inability to comprehend the situation evolving around them with WhatsApp forwards and information cacophony further playing havoc with their understanding and emotions. High food inflation is taking a huge toll as well. I am quite convinced that we are heading for "K" kind of outcome from here on unless policy makers come down from their high horses to see the situation in full measure.

Secondly, I am not at all convinced of justifications of the present dispensation to gather ever greater revenues from the citizens for the stated aim of delivering greater public good. Govts the world over are terribly inefficient in getting a bang for their buck, our administrative setup also has a stupendous record of its management so I feel this money in the hands of countrymen will get used in much more efficient way than with the Govt.

[V.Narayan]

Originally Posted by PGA

But the economic impact was that the transplanting price which used to be between Rs 3500 to Rs 4000/- per acre last year crashed to Rs 2500. Discussing the issue with them made me realise the gullibility of our masses and their inability to comprehend the situation evolving around them with WhatsApp forwards and information cacophony further playing havoc with their understanding and emotions.

Thank you for sharing this perspective from the primary sector. A perspective from ground zero we don't get often on this forum given most of us are urban - big city - tertiary sector chaps. So less income for the agricultural labourer and a higher price to pay for food. Looks like a very bad squeeze for those in the bottom 40% of the economic pyramid. The BSE Sensex notwithstanding and the ludicrous valuations of Zomato, PayTM etc the rest of the economy seems to be in a stupor neither climbing nor drowning but drifting.

High food inflation is taking a huge toll as well.

This, usually, in one or two years translates to political change.

I am quite convinced that we are heading for "K" kind of outcome from here on

I think, given the {lack of} depth of understanding of the current dispensation of economic matters we are going to see March 22 GDP at a level below March 20. Maybe in March 23 we shall get back to March 20 levels.

unless policy makers come down from their high horses to see the situation in full measure.

:-) One of my Professors used to say "Hope is not a Strategy" :-)

[Gsynch]

Economy Grows By Record 20.1% In June Quarter After Covid Slump

The remarkable improvement in the June quarter GDP rate, despite the onslaught of the fierce second wave of the pandemic, suggests that the country's economy recovered rapidly after registering negative growth for the first two quarters of 2020-21.


This is the third consecutive quarter when positive growth has been witnessed.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com...utm_content=23

[ninjatalli]

Missing out the key point repeated multiple times in the referenced article in the previous post

“This gdp number should not be confused with a strong recovery growth because of the low base”

It needs just a little arithmetic to see that India's Apr-Jun 2021 growth of 20.1% is shocking bad news. The 20.1% is in comparison to Apr-Jun 2020 when India's GDP had fallen by 24.4%.

- Take Q1 FY’20 (Apr-Jun 2019) as baseline = 100
- Then Q1 FY’21 = 75.6 (24.4% drop)
- And Q1 FY’22 = 20.1% increase on 75.6 = 90.8
- So still 9.2% LOWER than Q1 FY’20

Exemplifies “Low Base” effect

Edit: source Twitter

[mvadg]

Originally Posted by Gsynch

Economy Grows By Record 20.1% In June Quarter After Covid Slump

x ÷ 0 (any number divided by zero) would be infinity! That's all this is. Deliberately misleading. Financial data is always obfuscated to confuse ordinary people.

[jkrishnakj]

I still am not able to get a pulse on why/how the Sensex is attaining new peaks.

I’m hoping there isn’t a big big crash sometime.

[Gsynch]

Originally Posted by mvadg

x ÷ 0 (any number divided by zero) would be infinity! That's all this is. Deliberately misleading. Financial data is always obfuscated to confuse ordinary people.

Right on point, all financial reporting is like that, we read what we want to read.

But we still read, still infer and these statistics are used to formulate policies at the highest level and deserve required attention.

"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." Mark Twain.

[Gsynch]

Originally Posted by jkrishnakj

I still am not able to get a pulse on why/how the Sensex is attaining new peaks.

I’m hoping there isn’t a big big crash sometime.

I read it somewhere, can't find the source though.

Nifty was at 7000 in May 2014 and after 7+ years it is at 17000 so 2.5X growth which is not really over the top looking at average returns on equity.

Maybe the rally which we have seen in the last two years (short term), could be a cause of caution.

[JediKnight]

Originally Posted by jkrishnakj

I still am not able to get a pulse on why/how the Sensex is attaining new peaks.

I’m hoping there isn’t a big big crash sometime.

The current rally is driven by excess liquidity in the global system triggered by the excessively loose monetary policy of global central banks. This is a response to the pandemic. The market will fall once the central banks start tightening their monetary policies and interest rates start rising.

[arakhanna]

The economic uncertainty with COVID has resulted in the government's funding being stretched. The privatization push is a welcome economic structural move by the government. In addition, the national monetization pipeline is a welcome positive though execution will need to be watched. The government is undoing the earlier dispensations legacy of nationalisation/government ownership of business. Even if this is logical and in greater interest, it is sure to be met with protests. The corporatization mind you, not privatisation, of the OFB (Ordinance Factory Board) led to threats of strike so we know what they are up against.

From the illogical and ill-fated nationalisation of banks and insurance companies by earlier PM Indira Gandhi, we could take a full circle with LIC hopefully getting listed. I hope the government walks the talk and sells off Air India. The government has no business to be in business.

In addition government should look at exiting other assets in the roadmap defined. Capital expenditure should follow post raising income from these assets.

The government has enough work as it is with our population per capita income being extremely low. Judiciary reform, bureaucracy reform, and healthcare reform should be key agendas going ahead.

Contrary to majority perception on this board, I believe that the future would bring positive tidings. Things seem to be on the mend with the economy and vaccination rates are increasing. Even if there is a third wave, we will bounce back.

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

:-) One of my Professors used to say "Hope is not a Strategy" :-)

In a lighter note, its very expected. That explains why he is a professor and not a practitioner. All entrepreneurs I have met, are hopeful to say the least. Yes there is a plan, but as John Lennon said it best "Life is What Happens To You While You're Busy Making Other Plans". In my line of business, hope is a key plank (on economy, on the promoter, on management, etc), as else its all in the price!!

“Hope lies in dreams, in imagination, and in the courage of those who dare to make dreams into reality.” – Jonas Salk, the virologist responsible for the early polio vaccine.

[V.Narayan]

Originally Posted by ninjatalli

Missing out the key point repeated multiple times in the referenced article in the previous post
“This gdp number should not be confused with a strong recovery growth because of the low base”
It needs just a little arithmetic to see that India's Apr-Jun 2021 growth of 20.1% is shocking bad news. The 20.1% is in comparison to Apr-Jun 2020 when India's GDP had fallen by 24.4%.

Thank you ninjatalli for that sweet and simple explanation to that shockingly naïve {or is it obsequious} statement by the Eco Times.

Originally Posted by Gsynch

Economy Grows By Record 20.1% In June Quarter After Covid Slump. The remarkable improvement in the June quarter GDP rate, despite the onslaught of the fierce second wave of the pandemic, suggests that the country's economy recovered rapidly after registering negative growth for the first two quarters of 2020-21.This is the third consecutive quarter when positive growth has been witnessed.

Let's not kid ourselves about reality no matter how much spin the Govt wishes to put on figures. Our real GDP in 2020-21 at constant prices of 2011 was Rs. 135 trillion i.e. lower than the Rs. 146 trillion of 2019-20 and even the Rs. 140 trillion of 2018-19. And it will take a miracle for us to even get back to where we were in 2018-19. I don't see that happening in the current 2021-22. Maybe in 2022-23 provided we do not have any fresh destabilizers such as DeMo. The asset sale off could just be DeMo-II. Let's see.

[am1m]

""Marshals, senior and junior health inspectors must pay surprise visits to shops, restaurants, market areas and malls to ensure Covid-19 preventive measures are being followed," the BBMP statement stated."

Sounds great on paper. How effective and how many more opportunities this will provide for BBMP officials to line their pockets, I think we all know. I pity small shops and restaurants that will now have to deal with this new form of covid harassment on top of an awful year and a half for their business!

For those still thinking these sort of random regulations are doing something to control covid (probably the same subset that is still scrubbing surfaces and using UV lights!), read this Bhpian experience:https://www.team-bhp.com/forum/route...ml#post5143843 (Interstate travel with the Covid-19 restrictions)

[mvadg]

Originally Posted by am1m

...
For those still thinking these sort of random regulations are doing something to control covid (probably the same subset that is still scrubbing surfaces and using UV lights!)... [/url]

These are anything but "random regulations". When they come up with such regulations, they know exactly "how much". The economy is in a mess, and collections, both legal and under the table have suffered. Such rules are created to help with collections, and given how corrupt our government is, they would have set "targets" for each area and each official.

[AZT]

Originally Posted by jkrishnakj

I still am not able to get a pulse on why/how the Sensex is attaining new peaks.

I’m hoping there isn’t a big big crash sometime.

The Sensex and Nifty are a pre determined bunch of companies, current breakup is both FS sector heavy and also top conglomerates which have gotten bigger owing to eating up smaller cos market share so they have been specifically been chosen (or dropped) because of resilience not size.

Re the FS sector, we keep reading about how the NPA mess has been brushed under the carpet but as long as there is no mandate for banks to report them on books, we will see record profits.

Inflation always leads to bubbles in financial assets and housing assets, the same is playing out in the US where there is a big debate on whether current inflation is transitory or here to stay. There wont be a crash as such but once the loose money taps shut, may be some small correction. Long term low FD rates will lead to more people putting money in equity, this isn't because they like the markets but simply wanting to make money / beat inflation.

A good article on inflation being here to stay - https://www.forbes.com/sites/adamstr...h=2c6ed2159ca8