[mohansrides]

Originally Posted by DigitalOne

I have been reading this 80% cases are asymptomatic here (also by Dr. Vivek) and in other places. Does this mean that the rest 20% are serious cases and need hospitalization (as opposed to self-quarantine)? Or is there a subset of this 20% who need hospitalization and rest recover by self-quarantine? What is this percentage?

In essence, is this the progression: Not infected --> Asymptomatic --> Self-quarantine --> Hospitalization --> ICU --> Death?

Many asymptomatic cases don’t even experience a “recovery” period as they were not feeling sick in the first place. They were only detected because they got tested due to contact tracing of one or more infected patients.

So, to answer your question, the flow is not binary. For the majority, it is simply, get infected and don’t know it -> recover. That’s actually good news according to me.

[Turbanator]

Originally Posted by DigitalOne

I have been reading this 80% cases are asymptomatic

In essence, is this the progression: Not infected --> Asymptomatic --> Self-quarantine --> Hospitalization --> ICU --> Death?

Well the essence is —- Born- Live- Die

Coming to your question, 80% or whatever but a large people don’t display any symptoms and unless tested won’t even know if they are infected.

Depending on the place you currently are, tests will be done only if an asymptotic case was part of some identified chain or is a VIP as you can’t get tested in most of places in India without symptoms or reasons.

Take precautions and that’s it. We all have a fixed life if we believe in destiny.

[dragonfire]

I was very much in favor of the first lock-down. This time I am not very sure. But I am NOT going to opt for "unsure". Unsure means not acting on a problem, which is worse than taking the wrong side. So I will go with the safer option - to continue the lock-down.

Lock-down has not proven to work in the long term. But it has at least worked in the short term. And no-lock-down has not worked anywhere in the world. Every country in the world had to resort to some kind of lock-down sooner or later. Those who delayed it had to suffer heavy casualties. So, sooner the better. So let this (watered down) lock-down continue for a few months at least and keep our healthcare providers unburdened.

[The Rationalist]

Lockdown will surely work if the only aim is to show in Covid-19 statistics that our numbers are low and chest thumping. It’s like the school topper who has all the ranks and apart from having their name and photo being published everywhere, doesn’t mean anything to the society. Akin to most parents thinking being school topper is the only metric by which to measure success, we have a majority who thinks numbers are the only thing important in the Covid-19 pandemic.

I’m sure the vast majority of us were nowhere near being school toppers, but yet most of us are useful to the society. In the quest for showing a gleaming progress card, hope we don’t lose sight of the bigger picture.

[locusjag]

Chennai's people are roaming free with a vengeance! Kids, old people, overloaded 2 wheelers, burgeoning share auto rickshaws....it's back to bedlam.

And the government has taken over schools and marriage halls for mass quarantine. I see their plan now.

[yd_gli]

Originally Posted by hareshjethwani

All this seems like a circus, rules without logic in place, every authority has his own version of the lockdown/restriction. Is there nothing coordinated within the government departments, central/state? Can't they ever release a statement which is crisp and clear without having to assume anything?

India is la la land. Our existence is built entirely on Jugaad and living in the grey area. There are no black or white areas. When the govt puts out these ambiguous statements it basically removes the accountability from their shoulders since there are multiple ways of interpreting every statement. Also, this gives local authorities draconian powers to do whatever they please.
The real fun will now begin when every RWA/society committee interprets according to their convenience. Then we'll have different set of rules for different people. I called two grocery stores within 1km of my residence and one said he has opened up from 7AM to 7PM and the other said doesn't know what to do. As of now nobody in Pune knows if we are red zoned or containment zoned.

Originally Posted by fhdowntheline

Its high time officials look at changing some of these draconian measures that serve no purpose in Pune for example. Asking shops to open from 10am to 2 pm in the peak summer is sheer insensitivity. Do they expect senior citizens to stand in what is a typical crowded queue in this heat? They could simply shift this to 8am and give some relief. Also, the distribution of cases is highly skewed to certain areas of Pune. They can surely ease up somewhat in Kothrud/ Bavdhan/Baner/ Aundh, all of which colllecticely have less than a dozen cases as per data of May1st.

As of May 1st the areas of Pune you mention above account for a total of 7 cases. Yes, 7! It is absurd that restrictions continue in these areas. Cordon these areas off from the rest of the city and let things begin. The 10 - 2 restriction is useless since most stores used to open at 8 for milk and continue doing business until 3/4PM. Again there is no common sense when all you have is fear mongering. I see a lot more cars and two wheelers on the road today. I guess either we are in the red zone or people have had enough by now. I need to go and check if stand alone shops are open.

[DigitalOne]

Originally Posted by mohansrides

Many asymptomatic cases don’t even experience a “recovery” period as they were not feeling sick in the first place. They were only detected because they got tested due to contact tracing of one or more infected patients.

So, to answer your question, the flow is not binary. For the majority, it is simply, get infected and don’t know it -> recover. That’s actually good news according to me.

Originally Posted by Turbanator

Coming to your question, 80% or whatever but a large people don’t display any symptoms and unless tested won’t even know if they are infected.

Probably I didn't phrase my question right.

Let's assume 100 infected (confirmed after testing) people. Out of this 80 won't show any symptom. That's fine and understood.

Now out of that remaining 20 who are showing some symptoms, are all of them hospitalized or some are sent back for self-quarantine? And if only few are hospitalized, what is the percentage currently for hospitalization?

[Nalin1]

Originally Posted by Turbanator

Well the essence is —- Born- Live- Die

Take precautions and that’s it. We all have a fixed life if we believe in destiny.

I said this about a month and a half ago. And there were some hilarious responses to my post (one especially that would have been a one Terabyte size) as if restrictions and precautions need to be imported from Mars to fight against COVID-19.

Now with even more cases reported, we have implemented the same.

[mvadg]

Originally Posted by yd_gli

India is la la land... interprets according to their convenience. Then we'll have different set of rules for different people.

Just got confirmation on this - Rs. 25000 to reopen a tiny kirana shop according to the owner. Everything is back to normal.

[fhdowntheline]

I foresee a situation developing for the next few months where each state will carve out its own processes, and cohesion for inter-state processes will be very less, since each state is keen on reining in their Covid numbers. So, Goa may not allow tourists from Mumbai/Pune for the foreseeable future, even after lockdown ends.

[vinit.merchant]

Originally Posted by locusjag

Chennai's people are roaming free with a vengeance! Kids, old people, overloaded 2 wheelers, burgeoning share auto rickshaws....it's back to bedlam.

And the government has taken over schools and marriage halls for mass quarantine. I see their plan now.

Ditto with what has been observed in my area in Pune.
People have taken to the streets, with vast majority without even a mask.
Social distancing has gone for a toss completely.

So much for civic sense. People practice civic sense as long as it does not inconvenience themselves. Once it does, convenience is all that matters.

Not that this was unforeseen, i hope things calm down in a couple of days. Right now, it like they have come out of prison.

[vivek95]

Originally Posted by DigitalOne

I have been reading this 80% cases are asymptomatic here (also by Dr. Vivek) and in other places. Does this mean that the rest 20% are serious cases and need hospitalization (as opposed to self-quarantine)? Or is there a subset of this 20% who need hospitalization and rest recover by self-quarantine? What is this percentage?

In essence, is this the progression: Not infected --> Asymptomatic --> Self-quarantine --> Hospitalization --> ICU --> Death?

Originally Posted by mohansrides

Many asymptomatic cases don’t even experience a “recovery” period as they were not feeling sick in the first place. They were only detected because they got tested due to contact tracing of one or more infected patients.

So, to answer your question, the flow is not binary. For the majority, it is simply, get infected and don’t know it -> recover. That’s actually good news according to me.

We do not exactly have the statistics as to how many are critical and needing ventilator support of those remaining 20%. And that's what I really want these health ministry websites and screaming news reporters on media channels to highlight on, not just the positive cases. As a Doctor why should I really care about a pathogen which in reality is doing less damage to a large percentage of population. So, I am fed up of this sensationalism and hype over the numbers ( positive cases ). Get us a pan India survey and in depth analysis of the cases. That will truly reflect the burden of this problem. But a rough overview of patients point out to many being mildly symptomatic in that 20% which leaves very less percent patients being critical. 2500 new positive cases and 72 deaths in last 24 hours. Someone do the maths for me and tally it against Italy,Spain,USA,UK for the same period of 2 months. It may not be an apple to apple comparison but helps us understand where are we heading.

The progression so far for many patients is -

1. Mildly symptomatic-- test positive--hospitalisation--remain mildly symptomatic--negative--discharge

2. Presymptomatic--but test positive due to contact tracing--hospitalisation--no symptoms during the hospital stay--test negative--discharge ( this is a true asymptomatic individual )

Which of the above two is accounting for 80% is yet to be ascertained, but either ways why to worry. From my personal experience, it has to be the second one. Asymptomatic patients can easily be managed at home by strict isolation or at covid care centres and for that the earth need not be asked to stop rotating and revolving around the Sun.


Mumbai metropolitan region has 10000+ cases in the country. So, a thorough analysis of Covid-19 in Mumbai could serve as a model for the entire country to tackle this disease better. What is good for India may be disastrous for those colder countries. We cannot completely disregard the effect of temperature even as there are inconclusive reports yet. But traditionally, resiratory viruses have followed a seasonal pattern, so I doubt if this newbie is any different. Sars-Cov2 kiss khet ki muli hai

If 72 deaths in 24 hours is compelling us for a lockdown, think about 16 deaths per hour due to road traffic accidents in India since last few years. As BHPian doctor/intensivist @The_Rationalist points out, we should ideally stop travelling on roads and stay home as the death rate on roads is way higher than this COVID-19.

[mvadg]

^^^
Even when people wear a mask, they have this annoying habit of pulling it down when they speak, defeating the purpose of the mask completely. I have seen this behavior on TV also. May be the PM can address this in his next speech.

[vb-saan]

Originally Posted by mvadg

Even when people wear a mask, they have this annoying habit of pulling it down when they speak, defeating the purpose of the mask completely. I have seen this behavior on TV also. May be the PM can address this in his next speech.

That's quite universal; even with every health advisories asking people not to touch the surface of the mask, they still do it. And pulling it down is worse I guess - literally exposing the nose to the mask exterior.

[paragsachania]

Lockdown or no lockdown. When it comes to discipline and following guidelines for one's own safety, we always are a class apart!!

This one was from an hour before near to where I stay in Yelahanka. No distancing, no masks, no nothing - All for buying liquor on the first day of reopening of retail shops ever since the lockdown was announced!

https://youtu.be/AWmqz-lkNgA

A cop was seen manning the barricade at the shop including controlling "crowd" inside the shop but then few meters beyond the shop, things were literally relaxed.