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View Poll Results: Do you support the lockdown extension?
Yes 299 47.46%
No 244 38.73%
I'm unsure 87 13.81%
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Old 6th May 2020, 13:52   #1666
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by aadya View Post
With due respect to the logic behind testing the entire population hypothesis,I would like to clarify that testing strategy works on different logic for communicable diseases unlike Non communicable disease where testing at a certain frequency(depending the illness) saves future complication.

In COVID-19 myself and many others demanding wider testing mean to test the suspects and not the entire population. The COVID -19 suspects mainly are 1.SARI-severe acute respiratory illness 2.Close contact for positive cases(once at the end of quarantine period - if asympomatic and twice in the isolation period if mildly symptomatic ) 3. Health care workers coming into contact with positive patients. 4.Patients getting hospitalised for any illness in the Red and orange zones.
Thank you. But by this time, all of us already know the strategy behind the test coverage.

Without taking anything away from anyone’s hard work, I don’t think that the current strategy is worthwhile for a disease that is as easily communicable as Covid and for which a large majority of patients are asymptomatic.

But, I suppose we all will believe what we want to believe.

Cheers
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Old 6th May 2020, 13:55   #1667
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by JithinR View Post
Now there are states who don't want migrants to leave to their home states and seem to be placing hurdles in their way.
Complacency is usually the beginning of one's downfall. KA has developed this sense that they have evaded the crisis and can go back to normal. I hear of malls being opened up by month end! I am all for opening up the economy but, taking decisions based on requirements of wealthy businessmen and no real ground level science based action plan in hand is asking for trouble. Maharashtra has allowed to in-situ construction to begin wherein the laborers are to live in the construction premise. The govt is actually expecting the builders to abide by this rule?? God help us!

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Otherwise, we are flushing valuable resources down the drain for no reason.
Agree 100%. The testing situation is basically an infinite loop. But things are actually even worse:
I have heard of migrants getting medical certificates for a fee after a body temperature measurement. With this, I think we have hit rock bottom. If a body temp reading is going to be used as a COVID infection measure then why bother with the lockdown at all. The dude might have popped in a few paracetamols before the test for all I know. There are lakhs of migrants who will travel of the next few weeks and with such bizarre screening methods we are done for.
I remembered my college days when we used to go to the local court's parking lot to get degrees notarized. Very soon, we will see quacks setting up stalls at railway stations, airports, bus depots etc to hand out the mandatory health certificate prior to boarding. The doctors in the RTO parking lot will have a new customer base now.

Last edited by yd_gli : 6th May 2020 at 14:03.
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Old 6th May 2020, 15:29   #1668
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by yd_gli View Post
Agree 100%. The testing situation is basically an infinite loop. But things are actually even worse:
I have heard of migrants getting medical certificates for a fee after a body temperature measurement. With this, I think we have hit rock bottom. If a body temp reading is going to be used as a COVID infection measure then why bother with the lockdown at all. The dude might have popped in a few paracetamols before the test for all I know. There are lakhs of migrants who will travel of the next few weeks and with such bizarre screening methods we are done for.
In simple words, this is called 'Indian Jugaad' .

In a few days time, masks will also disappear. This 'social distancing' anyway is NOT applicable in India.
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Old 6th May 2020, 15:34   #1669
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Originally Posted by TheCatalyst View Post

Also the zoning technique needs to be improved. Now that the virus is here to stay, if a city like Bombay can handle 5000 cases due to its larger healthcare, then why should it be in a red zone? Maybe a smaller tier-3 city lacks hospitals and should be in red zone for just 50 cases.
Just want to understand the rationale behind your thought. Do you not want Mumbai to be in red zone? If so, you drop the zone priority and ease lockdown and due to this when you get 50k cases instead of 5k,what do you do then?

No one knows how quickly the numbers may increase . When you know hardly anything about the virus, isn't it better to be safe than sorry? You cannot control the movements of people in public and that would definitely be a recipe for disaster.

Lockdown shouldn't have been eased at all and we will see the results of this in the next few weeks when numbers keep increasing steeply.
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Old 6th May 2020, 16:01   #1670
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

My wife is in Karimnagar (Telangana) and would like to come to Chennai where I stay. Does she need to take an epass from tamil nadu as well as Telangana? How does this interstate travel work?
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Old 6th May 2020, 16:03   #1671
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by JithinR View Post
It's amazing how many things can be accomplished with a simple meeting with the CM/PM in our country (as long as you are a wealthy businessman).

https://www.thequint.com/amp/story/n...s-for-migrants
It pains me to see the migrant labourers are not treated as human beings with feelings and desires but as resources, to be used when needed. Keep them locked when not needed during lockdown and now not let them go home as the economy needs reboot. The least the govt could do is continue to send them home if they wish.

Quote:
Originally Posted by yd_gli View Post
Very soon, we will see quacks setting up stalls at railway stations, airports, bus depots etc to hand out the mandatory health certificate prior to boarding. The doctors in the RTO parking lot will have a new customer base now.
This is already happening in Mumbai, Gujarat as per news reports. Every migrant who applied to go home was asked by Police to get a medical certificate from the 'agency' who will be sitting nearby, for a fee of 350-500 rupees.

Painful scenario on the ground.

And now this. Pregnant woman, woman carrying kids started walking home 500 kms away Link

Tears.
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Old 6th May 2020, 16:40   #1672
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by professor.march View Post
My wife is in Karimnagar (Telangana) and would like to come to Chennai where I stay. Does she need to take an epass from tamil nadu as well as Telangana? How does this interstate travel work?
At present there is no clear protocol defined for interstate travelling. It keeps changing day by day and every state has their own rules in place.

For sure, you need to get TN pass. You have inquire with Telangana administration or look for some circular on whether you need Telangana pass.
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Old 6th May 2020, 16:50   #1673
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by mohansrides View Post
This argument that the lockdown is to protect our healthcare workers from being overwhelmed is pretty shallow if you ask me. Because if this lockdown continues, the same government will mandate that every doctor in the land work pro-bono for the foreseeable future.
I wrote the above lines on April 9th.

This is today's article in the Mumbai Mirror about 25000 doctors being asked to report for Covid duty or risk losing their medical license. Just to be clear, these are not doctors in government employment in government hospitals. These are private professionals and tax paying citizens. The article does say that these docs will be paid. I can't imagine how they are going to get paid considering the state of the exchequer. But, I am willing to wager that if these docs do indeed get paid, the wages will not be equal to what they earn in their private practices.

Just a while ago, lots of people here were alluding to those opposed to lockdowns as being left wing because we spoke up for migrants. So, let me get this straight.

The lockdown itself is about forcing people to not earn a livelihood, all in the name of the common good. Now, on top of forcing most people to not work, we are now forcing some people to work, possibly at wages that are not agreeable to them; and we are doing this again in the name of the common good.

And the ones opposing the lockdown are the ones on the left??!! What a freakin' joke!!

Last edited by mohansrides : 6th May 2020 at 17:13.
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Old 6th May 2020, 18:01   #1674
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Quote:
Originally Posted by professor.march View Post
My wife is in Karimnagar (Telangana) and would like to come to Chennai where I stay. Does she need to take an epass from tamil nadu as well as Telangana? How does this interstate travel work?
I doubt travel will be permitted unless there is a solid reason.

Try reaching zonal DCP office / Collector office, but first pls look for any options for online application.
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Old 6th May 2020, 18:26   #1675
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Of late I am seeing a rise in Covid-19 positive patients amongst the essential service sectors. It could be Doctors, nurses, police, pharmacists, APMC market dealers, corporation staff etc. Needless to say, most cases are asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic. But who really cares about the clinical profile as everyone is scared to death just looking at the numbers that these news reporters relentlessly keep shouting on all the news channels.

So how about shutting down all the essential services too ?? These too are potential superspreaders right ??

The health impact of this disease on the citizens could be far less worse than the impact due to various other factors owing to perpetual lockdown. History and medical science has been witness to the fact that many diseases play out with different intensities in different countries. It is not necessary that the health impact / death rate of COVID-19 on western world would be the same in India.

All I want to reiterate is that, let's stop worrying about the spike in cases that's happening in orange and green zones. It is no surprise and many of these patients don't need institutional based treatment.
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Old 6th May 2020, 19:20   #1676
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

India Covid-19 positive cases crosses 50,000. Just look at how the cases has increased, and we wanted to contain the virus by lockdown. How did the lockdown help, I can’t understand the arguments. I could have accepted lockdown if the time between each 10,000 was increasing. Please bring all the arguments and justify the lockdown, you can blame the citizens were not obeying lockdown. Reminds me of the story of a lamb standing downside of the river being blamed for muddying the water by the fox standing upriver. The Governments can never be wrong, it’s always the citizens at fault.

10000 13th April
20000 21st April
30000 28th April
40000 3rd May
50000 6th May
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Old 6th May 2020, 19:42   #1677
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

^^ Meanwhile. US cases are like this

March 19 10000
March 23 30000
March 26 68000
March 28 85000
March 30 122000
April 3 210000

I dont think any more proof is required
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Old 6th May 2020, 19:55   #1678
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by The Rationalist View Post
India Covid-19 positive cases crosses 50,000. Just look at how the cases has increased, and we wanted to contain the virus by lockdown. How did the lockdown help, I can’t understand the arguments. I could have accepted lockdown if the time between each 10,000 was increasing. Please bring all the arguments and justify the lockdown, you can blame the citizens were not obeying lockdown. Reminds me of the story of a lamb standing downside of the river being blamed for muddying the water by the fox standing upriver. The Governments can never be wrong, it’s always the citizens at fault.

10000 13th April
20000 21st April
30000 28th April
40000 3rd May
50000 6th May
Doc, you should know better and correct me if I am wrong. But my understanding from reading is that the epidemiologists/ govts. look for the below:
1. Doubling time : If you look at the time to go from 10K to 20K and 20K to 40K , its increasing. Which is interpreted as the spread slowing down.
2. % increase per day : This has been decreasing. Of course since the baseline is high, the absolute number is high. Also increasing testing brings out higher numbers.
3. % of positive from the testing: Even this has reduced to almost 4% as of now. Initially in March end, we were getting 50 positive cases on testing 500 suspects resulting in around 10% positive cases. Now we get 3K positive on testing 80K suspects. So the spread is not as wide as in other western countries.

Even I strongly feel that the way the lockdown was implemented is wrong and based on the above, its high time the lockdown is relaxed especially in states which are much below the national average.
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Old 6th May 2020, 20:11   #1679
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

Either full lock down or No lock down. This relaxed lock down is not going to work. There is no way to control it and our guys would use it as an opportunity to freak out.

I am afraid whether the purpose of all this lock down will go waste- In Bangalore, now there is no restriction to drive from 7am to 7pm and I can see every other car and vehicles is out on the road. That may probably include essential services, just time pass, just drive around, let me run the engine for a while type of guys etc.. It is almost getting back to the old traffic age.
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Old 6th May 2020, 20:18   #1680
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Default re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020

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Originally Posted by racer_ash View Post
^^ Meanwhile. US cases are like this
I dont think any more proof is required
Doubling time is a mathematical concept which has been taken into disease spread without any serious caveats. The virus can’t grow exponentially beyond a point as there would a huge number of people who would be immune to the virus. The virus will face a dead end long before everyone gets infected. The graph shows how herd immunity develops by vaccination, same applies to herd immunity by infection.
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Last edited by The Rationalist : 6th May 2020 at 20:20.
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